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Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
I'm at work but I'll update everything tonight.

Sataere: $12
Azhais: $11
Lock: $11
Beer4TheBeerGod: $10
Aredna: $10
DrPossum: $9
Smarms: $7
The Zack: $1
Spoeank: $0 :smug:

In order to speed this up after 10PM EST, please list the desired draft spots in order of preference. Feel free to change it, but once I post your draft selection it's locked in.

For example, this is me:

4,3,2,1,5,6,1,12,11,10,9,8,7

No logic whatsoever.

Beer4TheBeerGod fucked around with this message at 16:22 on Aug 28, 2014

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Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



4,3,2,1,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12

DrPossum
May 15, 2004

i am not a surgeon

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

please list the desired draft spots in order of preference. Feel free to change it, but once I post your draft selection it's locked in.

For example, this is me:

4,3,2,1,5,6,12,11,10,9,8,7

No logic whatsoever.

3,5,2,1,4,6,10,11,12,9,8,7

Azhais
Feb 5, 2007
Switchblade Switcharoo

uublog posted:

Holy crap it took an entire season to do that last year!!!

And I donated half of it! This is a good change.

The Zack
Jan 1, 2005

Pillbug
Draft slot preference:
4,3,12,11,10,5,2,1,6,7,8,9

And :monocle: Azhais!

Aredna
Mar 17, 2007
Nap Ghost
Let's make it $12

Smarms
Aug 27, 2008
6,5,4,3,7,8,9,2,1,10,11,12

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



Put me at $13

Aredna
Mar 17, 2007
Nap Ghost
After :f5: :f5: :f5: :f5: :f5: to make sure I kept in the top 4, here's my list:

4,3,2,1,7,6,5,9,10,11,8,12

Azhais
Feb 5, 2007
Switchblade Switcharoo
I'm just going to copy Beer's line. I think I'm #3 (so 2nd pick) anyway?

4,3,2,1,5,6,12,11,10,9,8,7

Lock
Aug 8, 2007

hardcore sound gets you hypah

4,5,6,1,2,3,7,12,11,8,9,10 maybe? Not sure here.

Also holy hell Azhais, that's awesome! I just hope I never need a ww pick you've got your eye on.

Lock fucked around with this message at 07:17 on Aug 28, 2014

Azhais
Feb 5, 2007
Switchblade Switcharoo

Lock posted:

4,5,6,1,2,3,7,12,11,8,9,10 maybe? Not sure here.

Also holy hell Azhais, that's awesome! I just hope I never need a ww pick you've got your eye on.

I was like half of it last year I meant. I'm only in for like $100 so far this season

Aredna
Mar 17, 2007
Nap Ghost
I think he means that if you dropped that much last year you probably would do the same this year if you really want someone.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



Last year I was broke and barely covered the league fee. This year, I'm even more broke, but already dropped $150.00 into the pool. :v:

This is my favorite league I'm in, and I ain't playing for third again!

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
DRAFT ORDER
1 - Beer4TheBeerGod: $10
2 - Azhais: $11
3 - Aredna: $12
4 - Sataere: $13
5 - Lock: $11
6 - DrPossum: $9
7 - Smarms: $7
8 - Spoeank: $0 :smug:
9 - jabro
10 - uublog
11 - Teeter
12 - The Zack: $1

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it
since I actually responded and technically bid a :smug: I think I have my right to pick my spot over the jabronis who didn't respond.

Teeter
Jul 21, 2005

Hey guys! I'm having a good time, what about you?

Spoeank posted:

since I actually responded and technically bid a :smug: I think I have my right to pick my spot over the jabronis who didn't respond.

You can have my 11th spot if you'd like.

Beer, I'm an active lurker so don't be alarmed by my inactivity since I'm around and will be managing my team even if I don't post much here. Also, I have decided that I will be playing for charity:water and prepped this so you can stick it in the OP:

Teeter - charity:water
Women and children in Africa and other areas of the world spend a significant portion of their day collecting water that is often unprotected and contaminated. Access to clean water helps by not only improving sanitation and preventing disease but by also freeing women and children to pursue education and empower themselves. I've chosen charity:water because they pride themselves on transparency of their projects and maximizing the amount that donations go straight to where they're needed. Check out their website, or watch a short video of their mission.

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Teeter posted:

You can have my 11th spot if you'd like.

Beer, I'm an active lurker so don't be alarmed by my inactivity since I'm around and will be managing my team even if I don't post much here. Also, I have decided that I will be playing for charity:water and prepped this so you can stick it in the OP:

Teeter - charity:water
Women and children in Africa and other areas of the world spend a significant portion of their day collecting water that is often unprotected and contaminated. Access to clean water helps by not only improving sanitation and preventing disease but by also freeing women and children to pursue education and empower themselves. I've chosen charity:water because they pride themselves on transparency of their projects and maximizing the amount that donations go straight to where they're needed. Check out their website, or watch a short video of their mission.

Done. That's what I was eying.

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it
Alright I think I'm ready for y'all. Did my final mock draft for 0.5 PPR

David Dodds posted:

Bottom line:
With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 94 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Maurile Tremblay posted:

Bottom line:
With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 94 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Bob Henry posted:

Bottom line:
Bottom line:
With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 88 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Jason Wood posted:

Bottom line:
With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 81 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Aredna
Mar 17, 2007
Nap Ghost
I haven't done my first mock yet and will be drinking tonight and drafting at 11am. Should be fun. I plan on relying heavily on Beer Sheets and pure luck.

Smarms
Aug 27, 2008
If you don't drink heavily and rely on gut instinct for the draft, you're doing it entirely wrong.

Lock
Aug 8, 2007

hardcore sound gets you hypah

My brother, who lives in a normal time zone and has a normal job, has volunteered to do my draft for me. He's not a goon so y'all be nice to him, y'hear?

Now to get a few more mock drafts under my belt.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
I suppose I should do a draft sometime.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
I am a bad and need to verify which teams The Zack (I'm assuming Bortles), Aredna, and Teeter (assuming Team Teeter) are running.

Beer4TheBeerGod fucked around with this message at 23:46 on Aug 29, 2014

The Zack
Jan 1, 2005

Pillbug
My team name is My Team is also Named Bort

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
I guess we'll find out just how well ESPN handles drafting two teams at once tonight.

Aredna
Mar 17, 2007
Nap Ghost
I'm Team Name, which I'll update to something more dumb and clever after I see which players I'm stuck with.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Good, then we're set. 1 minute draft picks; you guys are all fantasy badasses so I expect the best.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Just wanted to say that I hate all of you.

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

Just wanted to say that I hate all of you.

Quoting for truth.

Aredna
Mar 17, 2007
Nap Ghost
As you should... according to fantasy pros I won the draft. Thanks for helping out my charity everyone.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



What cracked me up the most was that the conversation went in the exact same direction as last year. The only difference is I think we know each other a bit better, so we let the hatred flow more! :argh:

That draft was brutal. My running backs are hanging on by a thread.

EDIT:

Aredna posted:

As you should... according to fantasy pros I won the draft. Thanks for helping out my charity everyone.



Wow, I got third best. I will assume they are a reputable source, so I don't have to cry myself to sleep.

DrPossum
May 15, 2004

i am not a surgeon
I did this for my other leagues, so here's a quick analysis of the player's draft position vs some consensus rankings broken down by your teams http://sand.riordan.io/c4c/

Compared to my others, these distributions are so consistantly narrow and centered around zero it's ridiculous. I think that's consistent with how tough this was for everyone, but also that no one seems to have completely poo poo the bed

DrPossum fucked around with this message at 04:17 on Aug 30, 2014

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



DrPossum posted:

I did this for my other leagues, so here's a quick analysis of the draft player positions vs some consensus rankings broken down by your teams http://sand.riordan.io/c4c/

Compared to my others, these distributions are so consistantly narrow and centered around zero it's ridiculous. I think that's consistent with how tough this was for everyone, but also that no one seems to have completely poo poo the bed

So the higher the RMS, the better we did?

DrPossum
May 15, 2004

i am not a surgeon

Sataere posted:

So the higher the RMS, the better we did?

The more skewed to a positive result is better (you got good players in later rounds), so you really want a higher mean. A narrow RMS means you were doing it consistently. I've found more uninformed teams will have a much wider spread because they're just throwing darts

edit: this was a more extreme one I had in a work draft:



there you can see he was picking up a lot of dudes almost two rounds before consensus. You can also see that that one doesn't resemble anything in our draft

DrPossum fucked around with this message at 04:25 on Aug 30, 2014

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Holy poo poo, I love how ALL OF US immediately ran out and did analysis of the draft. Here's the most important one of all...



I swear I didn't change a thing.

And here's the FBG Ratings, sorted by playoff probability given great inseason management:

Teeter, 90%
Beer4TheBeerGod, 85%
Lock, 75%
Aredna, 70%
uublog, 70%
The Zack, 65%
Smarms, 65%
Sataere, 55%
Spoeank, 55%
Azhais, 50%
jabro, 50%
DrPossum, 45%

Teeter
Jul 21, 2005

Hey guys! I'm having a good time, what about you?

Guess whose projections I was using...

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



Sure you didn't change mine.....


I find it hard to believe I would be rated the second worst draft. Then again, those rankings seem to hate a lot of the teams I love the most. Either it's dumb or I am! (Probably me)

DrPossum
May 15, 2004

i am not a surgeon

:smithicide:

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Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Teeter posted:

Guess whose projections I was using...

Clearly not ESPN.

DrPossum posted:

I did this for my other leagues, so here's a quick analysis of the player's draft position vs some consensus rankings broken down by your teams http://sand.riordan.io/c4c/

Compared to my others, these distributions are so consistantly narrow and centered around zero it's ridiculous. I think that's consistent with how tough this was for everyone, but also that no one seems to have completely poo poo the bed

Holy poo poo that's the coolest loving thing. That's a brilliant way to analyze a draft. Have you considered incorporating the spread of the FantasyPros projections to further refine the numbers? I'd be interested to see what would happen if you made the delta equal to the difference in ranking divided by the standard deviation of that player's particular projections.

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