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What is it? #hugwatch 2014 (aka the MLB Trade Deadline), the internet's favorite MLB summer TV show. Watch as athletes give each other tender squeezes of emotion and respect as a teammate may be gone for good, while would be internet trade speculators guess if a transaction has been completed. However, beware the deadly hugwatch false alert where sometimes a guy just wants to hug another guy with no context whatsoever. Here's a few of the #hugwatches I've seen populated in the news.  LHP David Price Current Year 9-7, 20 GS, 147 IP, 3.23 ERA, 117 ERA+, 164 SO, 21 BB, 1.070 WHIP Avg. Last 3 Years 14-9 26 GS, 182 IP, 3.00 ERA, 122 ERA+, 191 SO, 50 BB, 1.113 WHIP Contract Status $14,000,000 (2014), Arb 3 (2015), FA 2016 Hug Forecast Goodbye Hug. There are very little scenarios where it makes sense for the Rays to hang on to Price. Sure, they may be able to make a run this year with the 2nd WC, but unless Price takes a massive hometown discount (and let's be real, not really such a thing), he's going to absolutely crush it on the FA market. Tampa could still keep him another year under arb, but we're talking a high teens, maybe 20m figure. I give Price the bearhug because you better hold on tight, since it's the last time you'll be hugging in Tampa Bay.  3B Adrian Beltre Current Year 337 PA, 81 G, 13 HR, 51 RBI, .337 AVG, .383 OBP, .534 SLG, 150 OPS+ Avg. Last 3 Years 623 PA, 147 G, 33 HR, 100 RBI, .312 AVG, .356 OBP, .545 SLG, 136 OPS+ Contract Status $17,000,000 (2014), $18,000,000 (2015), $16,000,000 (2017*) *2017 is a vesting option based on 1200 PA combined in 2014-2015 or 600 PA in 2015. Hug Forecast Pound Hug. Beltre is still going strong at age 35 as one of the league's best 3B both offensively and defensively. However, he's still guaranteed at least one more year and is trending towards having his option vesting in 2016. This year could just be a fluke for the Texas Rangers and they could bounce back into consideration next year. GM Daniels has said he could be moved with the 'right price', but honestly - that means nothing. He gets a pound hug for respect, but not to say goodbye.  OF Alex Rios Current Year 387 PA, 94 G, 4 HR, 42 RBI, .305 AVG, .333 OBP, .440 SLG, 112 OPS+ Avg. Last 3 Years 624 PA, 153 G, 19 HR, 72 RBI, .271 AVG, .309 OBP, .435 SLG, 99 OPS+ Contract Status $12,500,000 (2014), $13,500,000 (2015*) *2015 is a team option with a $1m buyout. Hug Forecast Goodbye Hug. OF is a position of need for many of the teams still in the hunt for the playoffs and Alex Rios would be a great addition to just about any one of them. He isn't setting the world on fire, but the fact that he's giving above average production when some teams aren't even getting average production makes him a clear upgrade. Texas doesn't have much reason for holding on to Rios, and he'll likely only be a rental to any trade destination.  OF Marlon Byrd Current Year 390 PA, 94 G, 18 HR, 54 RBI, .263 AVG, .315 OBP, .479 SLG, 119 OPS+ Avg. Last 3 Years 405 PA, 104 G, 11 HR, 44 RBI, .275 AVG, .320 OBP, .431 SLG Contract Status $8,000,000 (2014), $8,000,000 (2015), $8,000,000(2016*) *2016 is a vesting option with 600 PA in 2015, or 550 PA in 2015 and a total of 1100 PA in 2014/2015 combined. If option does not vest, it turns into a team option. Hug Forecast Goodbye Hug. The Phillies are going absolutely nowhere and you have to figure that Byrd is the first one out the door. He has been playing pretty well in the tail end of his career, but teams looking to acquire him proabably won't be happy with that $8m price tag next year and possibly $8m for his age 38 year. There's already been a lot of buzz surrounding Byrd though, so I expect him to be moved - regardless of contract.  RHP Bartolo Colon Current Year 8-8, 18 GS, 121.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 88 ERA+, 89 SO, 17 BB, 1.18 WHIP Avg. Last 3 Years 12-8, 27 GS, 169 IP, 3.32 ERA, 120 ERA+, 114 SO, 31 BB, 1.12 WHIP Contract Status $9,000,000 (2014), $11,000,000 (2015) Hug Forecast A hug to be named later. Colon's name has popped up recently in articles saying that he has now been made available, however I don't think he has much value. If he continues to pitch as he has this season, I think he's more suited to be an August candidate, if there's interest.  LHP Cliff Lee Current Year 4-4, 10 GS, 68 IP, 3.18 ERA, 117 ERA+, 61 SO, 9 BB, 1.27 WHIP Avg. Last 3 Years 12-8, 31 GS, 222 IP, 2.80 ERA, 138 ERA+, 222 SO, 34 BB, 1.04 WHIP Contract Status $25,000,000 (2014), $25,000,000 (2015), $27,500,000 (2016*) *2016 is a vesting option with 200 IP in 2015, or 400 IP in 2014/2015. Also carries a $12.5m buyout. Hug Status A hug to be named later. Since Lee is on the DL right now, he may not have enough starts to warrant someone trading for him in July - leading to believe if Lee is moved at all, he'll be moved as a waiver candidate. However, that contract is not very attractive and may prove difficult to move.  RHP Huston Street Current Year 1-0, 24 SV, 33 G, 33 IP, 1.09 ERA, 319 ERA+, 34 SO, 7 BB, .758 WHIP Avg. Last 3 Years 2-3, 28 SV, 53 G, 51 IP, 2.92 ERA, 135 ERA+, 49 SO, 11 BB, 1.019 WHIP Contract Status $7,000,000 (2014), $7,000,000 (2015*) *2015 is a team option. Hug Status Goodbye hug. Street is probably the #1 reliever/closer on the trade market and for good reason. He plays on a last place team that has no need for his services this year or next year. The benefit of trading him for the Padres outweighs keeping him, and there's already several teams interested. Don't be surprised if you see him traded soon.  RHP Joakim Soria Current Year 1-3, 16 SV, 32 G, 30.1 IP, 2.67 ERA, 152 ERA+, 40 SO, 4 BB, .781 WHIP Avg. Last 3 Years 7-7, 24 SV, 51 G, 50 IP, 3.01 ERA, 138 ERA+, 53 SO, 16 BB, 1.18 WHIP Contract Status $5,500,000 (2014), $7,000,000 (2015*) *2015 is a team option with a 500k buyout Hug Status Goodbye Hug. Texas has told teams that they're listening on almost all their bullpen arms. Soria is probably the best of the bunch and should have no problem being moved - depending on what Texas is asking for in return. I think he ultimately gets moved as one of the better arms on the market as it gives the acquiring team some flexibility on next season as well to either bring him back or let him go. What's this thread for? There are plenty of other names out there and articles written on who may be moved this summer. Let this thread serve as a repository of news articles, trade analysis, or #hugwatch sightings. All analysis posted above is of course my own, so if you feel differently about a player's hug status: don't be afraid to talk it out. Resources http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/ - The biggest aggregate of trade rumors around. Still going strong. https://twitter.com/leokitty/lists/pro-baseball-writers - A great Twitter list (by our own leokitty) of MLB writers who will probably break trades before any other website. http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/transactions/trades - A visual representation of what trades have been completed so far. http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb/rumors/ - Another aggregate of trade rumors and news. Requires a subscription. Probably not as good as MLBTR. Assman22 - A storied member of the internet community who has the inside track on all MLB transactions. His identity is a mystery. Harlock fucked around with this message at 15:33 on Jul 16, 2014 |
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Jul 16, 2014 15:30
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Completed Hugs A's acquire: Jeff Shark (RHP), Jason Hammel (RHP) Cubs acquire: Dan Straily (RHP), Addison Russell (SS), Billy McKinney (OF) Padres acquire: Troy Patton (LHP) Orioles acquire: Nick Hundley (C) A's acquire: Kyle Blanks (1B) Padres acquire: Jake Goebbert (1B)
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Jul 16, 2014 15:38
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Ben Zobrist is probably another recently valuable player likely to go. There are a lot of contenders who could use a 2nd baseman.
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Jul 16, 2014 16:25
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Rangers/Royals make first post ASG trade. Royals acquire: RHP Jason Frasor Rangers acquire: RHP Spencer Patton
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Jul 16, 2014 17:29
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Looking forward to Ruben Amaro's yearly walk to the mic to say "you just don't blow up a championship-caliber nucleus like we have, we're one piece away"
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Jul 16, 2014 17:59
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this is a remarkable OP
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Jul 16, 2014 18:08
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Quest For Glory II posted:Looking forward to Ruben Amaro's yearly walk to the mic to say "you just don't blow up a championship-caliber nucleus like we have, we're one piece away" Yeah but that one piece is GM.
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Jul 16, 2014 18:14
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The Padres are in third place, not last place! Not, like, by any fault of their own, but still.
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Jul 17, 2014 19:58
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Please trade Andrus and his contract away. thanks.
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Jul 17, 2014 20:03
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The broken bones posted:this is a remarkable OP Yes it is. Nice job, Harlock.
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Jul 17, 2014 20:15
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KIM JONG TRILL posted:Please trade Andrus and his contract away. thanks. I'm in the minority in that I don't think Elvis's contract is all that bad(when he's playing to his talent level anyway) but he's not worth it relative to starting Profar/Odor next year and spending the Elvis money on pitching. As I've said, I hope he ends up on the Dodgers. They were reported as being interested in him in the offseason and I want him to go to a cool team. Also I want their young OFs. Trading Beltre is okay if someone pays out the rear end for him but it's kind of a white flag for 2015 if we do.
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Jul 17, 2014 20:18
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Marlon Byrd is apparently stalling trade talks with Seattle by insisting the Mariners pick up his 2016 option before he'll waive his NTC.
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Jul 18, 2014 01:27
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how the gently caress did marlon byrd get a ntc
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Jul 18, 2014 01:28
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MourningView posted:how the gently caress did marlon byrd get a ntc see: Amaro, Ruben. Admittedly it's just a limited four-team one that happens to include Seattle, but still.
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Jul 18, 2014 01:31
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Byrd said he would waive it for Seattle if they guaranteed his 2016 option.
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Jul 18, 2014 08:49
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Looking back at the MLBTR transaction tracker from last year, there weren't any major moves for almost a week after the all-star game. Hang in there, we're almost there.
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Jul 18, 2014 14:03
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Kemp's agent said he's open to a trade if he's not going to start every day. Also, Mariners are reportedly going after Price and Zobrist and have made offers that the Rays have surely rejected already.
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Jul 18, 2014 17:27
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TheIncredulousHulk posted:I'm in the minority in that I don't think Elvis's contract is all that bad(when he's playing to his talent level anyway) but he's not worth it relative to starting Profar/Odor next year and spending the Elvis money on pitching. Elvis Andrus's contract would just be garden variety bad if not for the opt-outs that prevent the team from capitalizing on any kind of bounce back he might have. Either way the idea of Elvis Andrus for Joc Pederson is comment section/homer fanboard material, and inconsistent with the realities of the league right now. Far more reasonable would be some kind of Kemp challenge trade. Yes, even given the Prince Fielder situation. Crion fucked around with this message at 17:51 on Jul 18, 2014 |
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Jul 18, 2014 17:48
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Crion posted:Elvis Andrus's contract would just be garden variety bad if not for the opt-outs that prevent the team from capitalizing on any kind of bounce back he might have. Either way the idea of Elvis Andrus for Joc Pederson is comment section/homer fanboard material, and inconsistent with the realities of the league right now. Far more reasonable would be some kind of Kemp challenge trade. Yes, even given the Prince Fielder situation. Yeah, the opt-outs are the part that bothers me. I don't really have an issue paying $16m a year for a quality young shortstop through his prime years, but there's really limited opportunity for surplus value if he ever does evolve into a real hitter because he can just score an even bigger deal at 29. Also Profar, etc. Elvis for Joc straight up is obviously pie in the sky. If they were involved in such a trade I assume it would have a bunch more pieces. Van Slyke seems like the more reasonable target. The Rangers would be crazy to take on Kemp at this point unless the Dodgers ate a bunch of money on him, which I can't imagine them doing after already taking on Elvis.
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Jul 18, 2014 19:10
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TheIncredulousHulk posted:Yeah, the opt-outs are the part that bothers me. I don't really have an issue paying $16m a year for a quality young shortstop through his prime years, but there's really limited opportunity for surplus value if he ever does evolve into a real hitter because he can just score an even bigger deal at 29. Also Profar, etc. The Dodgers aren't going to go after a shortstop whose biggest asset is his glove when they committed 25 million to Arruebarrena.
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Jul 18, 2014 19:24
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Crion posted:Elvis Andrus's contract would just be garden variety bad if not for the opt-outs that prevent the team from capitalizing on any kind of bounce back he might have. Either way the idea of Elvis Andrus for Joc Pederson is comment section/homer fanboard material, and inconsistent with the realities of the league right now. Far more reasonable would be some kind of Kemp challenge trade. Yes, even given the Prince Fielder situation. I'd be interested in a trade for Kemp, but I don't know that the Rangers are really in a position to take on that contract. We'd be rid of Elvis's contract, but would be taking on $6.5 million per year for the next 5 years and saving money starting in 2020 (presuming that Andrus won't opt out in 2018/2019). B-R has us at $133.8M for next year with arb cases, but without exercising Rios and Soria's options. They're both probably gone in this scenario. So payroll would be at $140.3 million before any additions would need to be made for next season. That's $7 million over current budget according to Cots. Now we probably save some money by nontendering Moreland and getting insurance money for Harrison (rip), but we still need to find at least 1 SP probably more like 2, a DH, a couple relievers, and a C. I don't know how we make that budget work unless we go into complete fire sale mode, but then why take on Kemp. I don't think Pederson is very likely, but I wouldn't put it in homer fanboard material. Regardless, thats definitely where you start the conversation. Smardzija and Hammel just got traded for Russell++ which I would've called crazy before it happened.
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Jul 18, 2014 19:27
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The only way I could see Kemp being traded in this season would be to the Yankees but it seems like they're more focused on pitching as of late. He wouldn't play much (if at all) in center field but he could play every day.
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Jul 18, 2014 20:56
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Our first hug of the day: Huston Street is going to be acquired by the Angels. IF Lindsey + another player is the return.
Harlock fucked around with this message at 04:11 on Jul 19, 2014 |
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Jul 18, 2014 23:13
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Kemp would be a really good acquisition for the Yankees (assuming they eat the money in lieu of giving the Dodgers top talent) unless you're one of the people who is into the aesthetics of running an efficient, low-payroll team purely for its own sake. In which case you're probably throwing fits about what the Yankees are doing constantly.
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Jul 19, 2014 01:06
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The whole "trying to underpay" the players is such horseshit anyway.
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Jul 19, 2014 02:15
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Crion posted:Kemp would be a really good acquisition for the Yankees (assuming they eat the money in lieu of giving the Dodgers top talent) unless you're one of the people who is into the aesthetics of running an efficient, low-payroll team purely for its own sake. In which case you're probably throwing fits about what the Yankees are doing constantly. I actually think the Yankees have like 20 MM coming off the payroll after this year (before arb deals) if I'm reading Cot's correctly.
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Jul 19, 2014 23:38
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In some next level hugwatch poo poo, my facebook/twitter feed is currently losing its mind because Evan Longoria and David Price were at a Cards/Dodgers game. And no, I have no idea why the Rays would trade Longoria either.
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Jul 21, 2014 18:34
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Buster actually alluded to that but basically said it's not happening in the same tweet
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Jul 21, 2014 19:19
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Reportedly, Dan Uggla has been signed to a minor league contract with the Giants.
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Jul 21, 2014 19:31
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There's a member that comes to my gym, bigtime Cardinals fan. Today he was insistent that the Rays are going to trade Price, Longo and Zobrist for Wong, Miller, Craig and some prospects. What the gently caress. No.
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Jul 21, 2014 20:35
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I saw someone earnestly suggest that Longo needs to be traded because settling down with a wife and a kid has made him unmotivated and lazy
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Jul 21, 2014 23:00
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Chief McHeath posted:There's a member that comes to my gym, bigtime Cardinals fan. Today he was insistent that the Rays are going to trade Price, Longo and Zobrist for Wong, Miller, Craig and some prospects. Does his uncle work for Nintendo too? This is the worst time of year. Don't trust anyone. Except Assman82.
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Jul 21, 2014 23:13
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Tommy Milone demanding a trade. Detroit will take you and that rapscallion Jim Johnson, good sir.
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Jul 21, 2014 23:15
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FairGame posted:Does his uncle work for Nintendo too? What board did he frequent? We need to get back to the time of following him like he's Heyman.
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Jul 21, 2014 23:22
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I do wonder if KC will trade Shields for like a Girchuk and non miller/martinez pitching prospect if they spiral out the rest of the month, but that tb deal sounds good get it done mo.
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Jul 21, 2014 23:26
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Scob posted:I do wonder if KC will trade Shields for like a Girchuk and non miller/martinez pitching prospect if they spiral out the rest of the month, but that tb deal sounds good get it done mo. why would the Royals trade for an outfielder?
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Jul 21, 2014 23:30
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I think if KC sold they would trade for any position as they are a garbage franchise, they would probably get a better package then girchuk + for him though i would imagine.
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Jul 21, 2014 23:33
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Dayton went on the record today to say that he believes in this team, so they weren't going to sell
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Jul 21, 2014 23:54
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Terrifying.
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Jul 21, 2014 23:59
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Groucho Marxist posted:Dayton went on the record today to say that he believes in this team, so they weren't going to sell I don't follow the Royals closely but it seems like he's given to dumb moves and I hope he does one of those dumb moves to get Alex Rios.
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Jul 22, 2014 00:49
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