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I'd like to ##intercept cellphones. Does anyone disagree?
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Jul 31, 2014 03:57
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| # ? Apr 25, 2024 09:57 |
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How about: payphones?
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Jul 31, 2014 04:00
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I wish I had more information about what we get if we're right vs. what scum can do with each option, but for D1 limiting their options and catching them if they're greedy seems like a good choice.
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Jul 31, 2014 04:09
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Little Mac posted:Does anyone disagree? Has the scum chosen which one to use already?
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Jul 31, 2014 04:26
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Sam. posted:Has the scum chosen which one to use already? Yes. Start of day.
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Jul 31, 2014 04:29
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Ixtlilton posted:I wish I had more information about what we get if we're right vs. what scum can do with each option, but for D1 limiting their options and catching them if they're greedy seems like a good choice. How do we limit their options? An I missing something?
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Jul 31, 2014 04:30
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Sam. posted:Has the scum chosen which one to use already? TT posted:Before each day starts, the scum will choose how they're communicating for that day. I feel like it makes sense to always select cellphones as it always puts the scum team at a disadvantage. Without knowing all of the direct mechanics, I believe a guaranteed disadvantage for the scum is better than a possible benefit for town.
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Jul 31, 2014 04:32
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Magnus Gallant posted:How do we limit their options? An I missing something? The OP.
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Jul 31, 2014 04:37
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Ixtlilton posted:The OP. You mean limit them tomorrow?
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Jul 31, 2014 04:41
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Magnus Gallant posted:You mean limit them tomorrow? No, the OP literally says that all of the other options have a disadvantage compared to cellphones, how do you think that's achieved?
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Jul 31, 2014 04:44
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Ixtlilton posted:No, the OP literally says that all of the other options have a disadvantage compared to cellphones, how do you think that's achieved? It's the wording that's confusing me. We aren't limiting their options if they've already made their choice. I gotcha now.
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Jul 31, 2014 05:02
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##intercept: cellphones seems good to me.
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Jul 31, 2014 05:04
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Magnus Gallant posted:It's the wording that's confusing me. We aren't limiting their options if they've already made their choice. I gotcha now.
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Jul 31, 2014 05:09
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The only option that explicitly says it helps scum is cellphones, so with nothing to go on it seems like the best option to go with D1, particularly since the only penalty for guessing incorrectly is not getting info. I don't get why general agreement should make you nervous.
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Jul 31, 2014 05:24
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Tremendous Taste posted:Before each day starts, the scum will choose how they're communicating for that day. They may choose to use:
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Jul 31, 2014 05:33
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We're pretty much blind guessing on the risk/reward here, so I'm going to assign values here and sperg out for a second to help figure out which one I'd prefer. I'm estimating some odds here, if you disagree let me know. So we've go option 1, which I'm assigning a value of 3 to the scum team for. Option 2 which I'm assigning a value of 2 for. And option 3 which I'm assigning a value of 1 for. If town is correct I'm going to go ahead and give it a value of 3 for town, 0 otherwise, because I don't think TT would make it so that the penalties of choosing meetings would outweigh the benefit to town of choosing correctly, because otherwise scum would never pick it. If I were scum I would estimate that town would pick option 1 60% of the time and option 2 40% of the time, making the values for their decision-making process like this: 3-3*.6=1.2 2-3*.4=0.8 1-3*0=1 From these highly speculative calculations it would appear that scum's best choice is still payphones. However, from the OP it can be gleaned that perhaps more information is gained from the higher level options with a correct, and changing the calculation to reflect this puts payphones on par with cellphones. However, it is important to note that with these stupid meaningless numbers the disadvantage for choosing meetings is minimal and provides an extra value outside of mechanics: town is wrong no matter what if they choose safe options, and you get people who look bad no matter what, and there's doubt about the people on the other side no matter what. And that's a lot of words that don't mean much and aren't really helping me decide which one I'd prefer. Flavor-wise I feel like we'd be remiss if we didn't choose the one we feel like scum is most likely to choose which is probably payphones, but cellphones is still the safest option and if we chose payphones and they chose cellphones I'd feel really dumb.
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Jul 31, 2014 06:11
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Little Mac posted:I'd like to ##intercept cellphones. Does anyone disagree? I agree. ##intercept: cellphones It seems like the safest option, to deny them their best possible outcome, and if we also caught them going for the gusto, all the better.
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Jul 31, 2014 06:56
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There's no way to reliably be able to guess what they'll pick. I think, at least for day one, going for the thing that gives them the most reward is the best way to go. Who knows what they get from it, but nullifying that option before they even have a chance to see us discuss it (since they picked it prior to day one) is a good idea.
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Jul 31, 2014 07:28
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It's really probably a crapshoot the first day and I'm inclined not to trust anybody trying to steer it towards a certain way so early when we have a lot of time to decide things~
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Jul 31, 2014 08:19
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Dammit did I miss jokephase? *tosses vote for Fast Luck in the bin* The way I see it this whole wiretap thing is just a big ball of WIFOM. But I like Somberbrero's reasoning about cutting off their advantage. So I'll just go with ##intercept cellphones for today.
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Jul 31, 2014 08:27
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I like the logic but at the same time it would be pretty ballsy for scum to go for best option on day 1.
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Jul 31, 2014 09:49
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DuckHuntDog posted:Thanks, TT! I think Opop nearly got turboed d1 in the league. Is this some unwritten rule?
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Jul 31, 2014 09:51
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##intercept payphones Mac, Mac I don't trust you. Mac.
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Jul 31, 2014 12:39
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To me it seems obvious the most logical choice a town would make is to tap cellphones, so I don't think the scum are using cell phones.
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Jul 31, 2014 13:56
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Magnus Gallant posted:To me it seems obvious the most logical choice a town would make is to tap cellphones, so I don't think the scum are using cell phones. Rarity posted:this whole wiretap thing is just a big ball of WIFOM I think people should just make their own decisions without talking about it too much. Scum could easily focus the thread on this vote to keep us from scum hunting.
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Jul 31, 2014 14:00
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I feel that ##intercept: payphones is the way to go. No reasoning, just my gut. gently caress.
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Jul 31, 2014 14:24
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I was thinking perhaps the higher up they go in terms of communication the more of their power roles they can't use.
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Jul 31, 2014 14:29
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If that guess is correct then maybe this is a day they'd be willing to sacrifice a power role so I'll vote ##intercept: payphones as well
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Jul 31, 2014 14:32
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Rarity posted:I think people should just make their own decisions without talking about it too much. Scum could easily focus the thread on this vote to keep us from scum hunting. I think this is an important point for day 2 onwards. The extra info should be treated as bonus otherwise it could end up as a wild goose chase.
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Jul 31, 2014 14:44
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Rarity posted:I think people should just make their own decisions without talking about it too much. Scum could easily focus the thread on this vote to keep us from scum hunting. I agree with this. I won't fight for cellphones, even though I think it's the obvious scum choice - but I guess that's WIFOM in a nutshell. I'll vote with a majority on this.
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Jul 31, 2014 14:46
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Dugong posted:I think Opop nearly got turboed d1 in the league. Is this some unwritten rule? It is not a rule, and I didn't actually expect anyone to turbo Opop.
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Jul 31, 2014 14:49
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I was hoping people would join on the always tap cellphones reasoning and that would likely set scum up to pick payphones so we could switch tomorrow if we didn't catch them today. Since that seems unlikely now I think either cellphones or payphones is a good choice today, but it is all wifom to guess which. Trying to implement RPS strategy by committee without discussing it is pretty hard.
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Jul 31, 2014 15:08
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##intercept: cellphones I like Sombers reasoning to try to deny scum any advantage.DuckHuntDog posted:I was hoping people would join on the always tap cellphones reasoning and that would likely set scum up to pick payphones so we could switch tomorrow if we didn't catch them today. Since that seems unlikely now I think either cellphones or payphones is a good choice today, but it is all wifom to guess which. Trying to implement RPS strategy by committee without discussing it is pretty hard. We are just over, what, 12 hours into Day 1 with two full days left until the end of it and you've already given up on your plan? Heck before my post it's only 4 vs 3 on the vote (now 5 v 3), seems really early to throw in the towel on anything. About a third of the players haven't even posted since the day started.
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Jul 31, 2014 15:25
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It only works if it looks like everyone will always pick cellphones and not just pick it for today, and the half-earnest reasoning for doing that was falling flat. Pushing hard is only going to drive people away, too.
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Jul 31, 2014 15:36
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##intercept: payphones I think the scum would have played it safe day one.
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Jul 31, 2014 15:44
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Deadbeat Dad posted:It's really probably a crapshoot the first day and I'm inclined not to trust anybody trying to steer it towards a certain way so early when we have a lot of time to decide things~ Real talk, I don't like that tilde and I'm being completely serious. I also don't get the point of saying "Don't discuss the weird mechanic in this game, because we have lots of time to talk about the weird mechanic in the game." Steering the decision is not necessarily a play indicative of alignment, I think there's a lot of interesting discussion to be had in what interception decisions mean. Obviously, scum have more invested in this decision than we might. However, there's little means to determine investment. I know that if I were scum, I would say "idk, gut call," or make some goofy WIFOM argument. However, I think I might make some of those arguments as town as well. Regardless, public mechanics are a great way to start actual discussion on day one. Anyway, ##vote Deadbeat Dad. Rarity, here's the deal. Anytime I read a post you make, I think you're scum. In Something Rotten and in my readalong in Battleship, I was convinced you were scum. You weren't! So, I'm going to take a TUMS, let my gut settle, and ride this out until endgame.
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Jul 31, 2014 15:51
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I agree with ##intercept payphones
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Jul 31, 2014 16:15
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Somberbrero posted:Rarity, here's the deal. Anytime I read a post you make, I think you're scum. Don't worry, you're not the only one :P Somberbrero posted:I think there's a lot of interesting discussion to be had in what interception decisions mean. The problem with this is right now we have no way to know what people's votes indicate because we don't know what scum chose. Maybe Little Mac is trying to steer us away from one of the other options, maybe he's not. We have no way of knowing right now so I don't see how trying to make a judgment about it is possible.
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Jul 31, 2014 16:29
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Rarity posted:I think people should just make their own decisions without talking about it too much. Scum could easily focus the thread on this vote to keep us from scum hunting. ##intercept:payphones Preview Edit: Rarity posted:The problem with this is right now we have no way to know what people's votes indicate because we don't know what scum chose. Maybe Little Mac is trying to steer us away from one of the other options, maybe he's not. We have no way of knowing right now so I don't see how trying to make a judgment about it is possible. Tremendous Taste posted:At the time of the lynch cardflip, the town will also know whether the correct intercept method was chosen. At the start of the next day, the town will see any results from that intercept.
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Jul 31, 2014 16:35
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| # ? Apr 25, 2024 09:57 |
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I'm not trying to steer necessarily, but I wanted to open discussion on the main game mechanic with my thoughts: were I scum, I'd always pick cellphones on the off chance we'd get a huge advantage. I mean, we have a 1/3 chance of guessing correctly while they have a 2/3 chance of us guessing incorrectly. With the odds like that, why not go for the gold?
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Jul 31, 2014 16:36
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