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IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Confirming that I received a thing telling me about my role in this game.

Dugong posted:

Here I am confirming for my second game. I have not watched The Wire but I am watching Utopia at the moment.

I also have never seen the Wire.

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IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

gently caress

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

I feel that ##intercept: payphones is the way to go. No reasoning, just my gut.

gently caress.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Hi guys, I was out all day (though I managed to make a post from work) and just spent some time catching up on the thread, and wanted to weigh in on the intercepts (and I absolutely feel that they are worth talking about) by talking about opportunity cost.

A couple important things we should keep in mind is that if we guess right then we get "Valuable Information," though we don't know what that entails. It depends on how powerful Taste wants to make it. It could be the scum discussing a target for the next night (which would clear someone as town), for instance. It could also just be some sort of clue that needs decoding. Maybe the information we get is dependent on what method they're using. The other important thing is figuring out what the disadvantages could be. Unlimited communication when using cellphones seems likely. Limited communication with payphones, maybe they can only speak through PMs or something. And holding them to a meeting may just mean that they get a small window of time to discuss their next move and no communication outside that is allowed.

So what does opportunity cost have to do with that? Probability says that we have a 1/3 chance of catching them each day by guessing randomly. Or if we decide that holding them to a meeting is victory enough, and anything else is a bonus, we could vote between cellphones and payphones and hope the 50% chance of catching it will dissuade them from doing anything but meetings. The final option, as has already been discussed, is of course to just decide to deny them access to cellphones outright, because the ability to run at "full strength" is too dangerous.

Personally, I prefer to go with one of the first two options, because in the case of the first I think the chance of learning something is much greater than never learning anything, and in the case of the second it really seems like Taste wants to make meetings a "worst case scenario" for the scum. In the "always cellphone" option I don't see how that helps the town, as it doesn't seem like using payphones will be much of a hindrance at all, and the scum will know that it's safe to use them.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

also because I forgot (sorry Rarity): gently caress

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Little Mac posted:

Still via phone. This post sucks. Did you just softclaim a power role for... what reason, exactly? If you don't understand how it works ask the mod. Don't be so wishy-washy.

I generally don't like to day one lynch but I agree, what an awful post

##vote: ardulac

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Rarity posted:

What? There are two things wrong with this post. 1) It's your second game, how do you know what you generally like? b) The only people no lynches help are scum.

a) Yes, this is my second game ever. I have never played Mafia anywhere but SA. You have discovered my lies Rarity. Praise be to you.

b) A mislynch is a cellphone, a nolynch is a payphone, a correct lynch is a meeting.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Ardulac posted:

Please explain.

good for scum/neutral for scum/bad for scum

I figured it made the most sense to compare them since we've been talking about them the last like three days

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Little Mac posted:

This and Magnus Gallant's train vote suck, but this especially because of the weird buddy-buddy content. I didn't think Ardulac's lovely claim was enough to vote him, why would you? Your content up to now has been close to nil, with one large white noise post about the intercepts and now you're back on it again. Would vote IcePhoenix or anyone seriously wanting to No Lynch. gently caress that.

I find this kind of amusing considering we're three hours from the deadline and you haven't voted on anyone yet.

What exactly was white noise about my communication post? You're one of the people who wanted to bring it up for discussion before:

Little Mac posted:

I'm not trying to steer necessarily, but I wanted to open discussion on the main game mechanic with my thoughts: were I scum, I'd always pick cellphones on the off chance we'd get a huge advantage. I mean, we have a 1/3 chance of guessing correctly while they have a 2/3 chance of us guessing incorrectly. With the odds like that, why not go for the gold?

so I effortposted to bring out my thoughts on it and what I thought the best courses of action were.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

I will also ##unvote for now, after rereading through Ardulac's posts

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Rarity posted:

Anyway, the two people I'm interested in today are IceP and Magnus. They were both part of the lovely bandwagon on Ardulac and then when I called it out as a lovely bandwagon they both jumped off it. They've also been really quiet and both voted for payphones yesterday. More specifically, Magnus's play has been very noncommittal and mostly consists of asking people questions. Ice's main contribution is a whole bunch of words about the interception vote and saying how he likes to no lynch on D1. They're both looking real sketchy to me right now.

Ice, Magnus, who do you guys think is scum?

I voted payphones on a gut instinct and didn't see any significant reason to change my vote before it was hammered. I'm sure I would have changed my vote if it mattered but you probably don't care! Actually you probably do, since you keep saying we shouldn't let discussion of the intercepts drive us but you have on multiple occasions brought conversation back to them. You're really aggressive and that seems kinda scummy to me!

But then, there's Sam., who said all of two things on the first day. In fact his last post was five days ago. And both his posts were incredibly low content. So that's who I'd start with today.

##intercept: cellphones

##vote: Sam.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Rarity posted:

If he's not scum then I don't really get why he bothered to sign up at this point.

The last couple days of modding Awful Survivor: ADTRW have been incredibly lovely. When I tried posting more earlier in this thread I started getting attacked for trying to help in the wrong way. When I tried justifying it I was attacked for being "too defensive." I just threw up my hands because I'm going to get lynched for everything I try to do. If I vote for someone else I'm being scummy because I'm trying to move the target off of me. If I do nothing I'm being scummy because I'm silent, and if I try and counter-argue I'm scummy for defending myself. I figured my best option to maybe play this game was to just keep my mouth shut and hope a case for someone else came up.

For now I'm just going to ##vote: Fast Luck because his case on me is retarded and it's going to get me killed on day 2 again. I capitalized Valuable Information because Taste allcapsed it in the OP.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Asiina posted:

Ice, you've had 4 votes on you and I don't think they were all at the same time. It takes 10 to lynch. Just cause you get cased or get a few votes doesn't mean you are automatically doomed.

I can't actually see votefinder at work, the site that hosts it is blocked here.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Ok, well, I never actually argued for or against payphones, so I'm going to ##vote: EccoRaven because now he/she is just making things up to try and push a failing case on me. Also they used random capitalization too just now!

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Can we talk for a moment about how cpig has 50 posts in the thread with no content and a bunch of votes that look like someone trying to jump in early on a bandwagon before it starts?

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

IcePhoenix posted:

Can we talk for a moment about how cpig has 50 posts in the thread with no content and a bunch of votes that look like someone trying to jump in early on a bandwagon before it starts?

##vote: CapitalistPig

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

CapitalistPig posted:

I will say, however, that ip is using my thing I do in pretty much every game I've ever been in to deflect attention away from himself.

##vote ip it'll stay here until he's lynched because he's who I think is the biggest scumbo right now.

So unless you're scum in every game then you're saying that what I've been doing, by your read, isn't really scummy at all, but right now it is because you're trying to make another (terrible) case on me while hoping to save your own bacon.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

well better her than me and I was suspicious of her earlier anyway

##vote: Rarity

quick everyone bandwagon back to me because of what I just said

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

DuckHuntDog posted:

IP on D1 follows a joke Rarity made on page 1 despite nobody else going along with it besides CPig before confirmation. It is subtle, but it reinforces a connection.

how is this even a thing?

##intercept: cellphones

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Holy balls, I checked the thread a few times on Saturday and just figured you guys were taking the weekend off. I'll try to catch up by my lunch break so I can make a coherent post.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

##intercept: cellphones

ok first off:

Fast Luck posted:

Hey Ice, you were mad you didn't get to play more last game, and you signed up here for this game, soo I'm pretty sure you want play.
Kill yourself.

We have, in theory, two confirmed towns in Ardulac and Doc Hurt. We also have Meds claiming a role that got everyone to back off immediately, Fast Luck, who some are claiming is cop confirmed town, and Asiina, who people believe is town because of semi-mod confirmation. That's five easy targets for scum, and yet all of them are still alive, because the chosen target last night was apparently Dugong instead. To me, that says that at least one of the last three is scum, possibly more.

On that, I'm not really convinced we can put FL in the confirmed town bin. It's been mentioned that the Godfather hasn't flipped, but we also had a bus driver that could have changed a read on night one. Rarity was pretty agressive on a lot of people (including me) but not on him. And despite constantly referencing the fact that he's new, he instantly knew what MEDS was claiming to get votes off himself.

Obviously I still think MEDS is suspicious as well. That's a claim that's pretty much impossible to test, especially without a cop around. It's been mentioned that if we're going to test it, we have to do it sooner rather than later to at least somewhat limit the damage.

Still, I am going to go with my strongest instinct instead of the "safer" one this time and ##vote: Fast Luck

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IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

:ghost: sweet, sweet, release :ghost:

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