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Lotus Aura
Aug 16, 2009

KNEEL BEFORE THE WICKED KING!


100YrsofAttitude posted:

In regards to my "non cases", there's a reason why I haven't voted. I've been trying to air out my thoughts and just write down my perception of things. Maybe I should have more conviction? But as everyone readily sees most of my thoughts are pretty empty, at least they're nothing I would be able to vote on with confidence, especially cause when playing mafia my number 1 rule is that I'm always wrong.

See, this is a situation where I understand what you're saying and I can follow the logic behind it. I just don't really agree with it. The main issue comes from your thoughts not really having much meaning to them, though at least you can admit as much yourself; I guess this just comes down to a difference in our ways of thinking. Like, yeah, I can completely understand thinking out loud to try and reach a meaningful conclusion but when your thoughts are, by your own admission, inherently meaningless that just seems more like wanting to say something, more than having something to say.

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Lotus Aura
Aug 16, 2009

KNEEL BEFORE THE WICKED KING!


And, well, just wanting to say something, anything, regardless of content or use is just empty proselytising and that doesn't actually help anyone. Looks nice if you want to appear to be helping but that's all it does.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010






Harold Krell posted:

All you're doing is just tunneling on me for whatever reason, and quite frankly, all of this ignorance and attacks on my personal character is pissing me off. Please, remember to show some respect in the future before you consider posting again, understand?

Dude, it's mafia. Get over it. Questioning people's character is the point of the game. Maybe quit blustering about being besmirched and play some mafia. You say that the two vig kills are solid pieces of evidence. How about you share your analysis of that evidence?

Harold Krell
Sep 10, 2011

I truly believe that anyone and everyone is capable of making their dreams come true.

:unsmigghh:


Rarity posted:

Dude, it's mafia. Get over it. Questioning people's character is the point of the game. Maybe quit blustering about being besmirched and play some mafia. You say that the two vig kills are solid pieces of evidence. How about you share your analysis of that evidence?

You may be allowed to question other people, but that doesn't mean you're allowed to disrespect them.

Either way, if you would have just read what I just wrote, you would have been able to gather that that the kills themselves are evidence of the likelihood of scum. Here is an analogy to simplify things: When murders occur in the real world, court cases are required to find the guilty party. However, since the killers have already been revealed to us, the only choice we need to make is to see which guilty party gets hanged tonight. It's essentially the Prisoner's Dilemma brought down to a smaller scale.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010






I think that's an overly simplistic way of looking at things. Town shoots town all the drat time when they have vigs.

Harold Krell
Sep 10, 2011

I truly believe that anyone and everyone is capable of making their dreams come true.

:unsmigghh:


Rarity posted:

I think that's an overly simplistic way of looking at things. Town shoots town all the drat time when they have vigs.

You must be playing with some disgustingly self-destructive townies because that's a downright shameful display of mafia sportsmanship.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010






Ok, so I looked a little closer at the candy levels and I had a thought. There are three players who have lost candy, merk and uranus who gained candy and Somber who claims to have given away candy.

Dragonatrix gave away 2 candy (unclaimed)
Big Nothing gave away 1 candy (but he's dead now so that's irrelevant)
ApostateCourier gave 2 candy (1 to Punt, 1 to Ernie)

First things first, Dragonatrix you should claim who you gave your candy to. If that person ends up flipping scum then that confirms you as town. Now AC says she gave candy to Punt and Ernie, which means in theory that they should each have given away 1 piece of candy as well. However, there's this:

uranus posted:

yeah it told me i ate them all as soon as i got them, i just didnt see my pm till this morning

If AC had gifted Ernie a piece of candy then that would have taken him up to 4. He would have eaten them automatically and he wouldn't have had a chance to give one away so he could drop back down to 3. In other words, AC is lying.

##vote ApostateCourier

merk, did you get the same PM as uranus?

Puntification
Nov 4, 2009

Black Orthodontromancy
The most British Magic



Fun Shoe

Rarity posted:

Ok, so I looked a little closer at the candy levels and I had a thought. There are three players who have lost candy, merk and uranus who gained candy and Somber who claims to have given away candy.

Dragonatrix gave away 2 candy (unclaimed)
Big Nothing gave away 1 candy (but he's dead now so that's irrelevant)
ApostateCourier gave 2 candy (1 to Punt, 1 to Ernie)

First things first, Dragonatrix you should claim who you gave your candy to. If that person ends up flipping scum then that confirms you as town. Now AC says she gave candy to Punt and Ernie, which means in theory that they should each have given away 1 piece of candy as well. However, there's this:


If AC had gifted Ernie a piece of candy then that would have taken him up to 4. He would have eaten them automatically and he wouldn't have had a chance to give one away so he could drop back down to 3. In other words, AC is lying.

##vote ApostateCourier

merk, did you get the same PM as uranus?

I've already said I gave candy to uranus and merk btw.

Lotus Aura
Aug 16, 2009

KNEEL BEFORE THE WICKED KING!


I gave 1 piece to Byers basically entirely at random. Dunno where the other one went, since I did just send out one. Never received a dayvig PM so that possibility isn't on the table, and I doubt anyone would send 'em to me anyway.

Puntification
Nov 4, 2009

Black Orthodontromancy
The most British Magic



Fun Shoe

byers and/or somb give candy to ernie.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010






Ernie. posted:

merk i'll cut you a deal

vig uranus if i give you a candy

##unvote

##vote uranus

Hang on I missed this post from before AC gave away her candy :saddowns:

Still working on a full list of treat claims but I'll go back to my original vote for now. ##vote 100yrs

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010






Puntification posted:

byers and/or somb give candy to ernie.

Where are you getting this from?

Puntification
Nov 4, 2009

Black Orthodontromancy
The most British Magic



Fun Shoe

Little Mac posted:

Official Candy Tally

1. merk 0
2. Somberbrero 2
3. uranus 1
4. 100YrsofAttitude 1
5. apostateCourier 1
6. Dragonatrix 1
7. Byers2142 2
8. Puntification 1
9. Rarity 2
10. Token Female 2
11. Big Nothing 0
12. Ernie. 3
13. Harold Krell 2

It's a request not a statement rarity, it'd give ernie a vig without putting people on 0 - town should try to avoid zeroing themselves as it might tip off scum to who have PRs and who don't. I guess you and harold could do it as well but I didn't notice your count and I doubt he'd want to join in.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010






Someone needs to claim uranus's 2nd gifted candy.

Puntification posted:

It's a request not a statement rarity, it'd give ernie a vig without putting people on 0 - town should try to avoid zeroing themselves as it might tip off scum to who have PRs and who don't. I guess you and harold could do it as well but I didn't notice your count and I doubt he'd want to join in.

I'd rather not risk having town be down 3 players on D1, personally.

Puntification
Nov 4, 2009

Black Orthodontromancy
The most British Magic



Fun Shoe

Rarity posted:

Someone needs to claim uranus's 2nd gifted candy.


I'd rather not risk having town be down 3 players on D1, personally.

I thought byers claimed it?

Boo Rarity that's no fun, we should exploit the mechanic while it exists, there's both the potential to kill scum and confirm town with one fell swoop, vigs are great vig 420.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010






Puntification posted:

I thought byers claimed it?

I miss things when you call him spacebutt :argh:

Ok, here's the whole list of candy treats. Not in order cause that would be way too confusing.

BN -> merk
Ernie -> merk
AC -> Ernie
AC -> Punt
Dragonatrix -> Byers
Somber -> merk
Punt -> merk
Punt -> uranus
Byers -> uranus
Dragonatrix -> AC (unclaimed but this is the only way the candy totals work)

I think Punt, AC and Dragonatrix all look suspicious from this. Like I said before, I think scum would want to be giving away their candy. I especially don't like Punt pushing for a third vig.

Puntification
Nov 4, 2009

Black Orthodontromancy
The most British Magic



Fun Shoe

Rarity posted:

I miss things when you call him spacebutt :argh:

Ok, here's the whole list of candy treats. Not in order cause that would be way too confusing.

BN -> merk
Ernie -> merk
AC -> Ernie
AC -> Punt
Dragonatrix -> Byers
Somber -> merk
Punt -> merk
Punt -> uranus
Byers -> uranus
Dragonatrix -> AC (unclaimed but this is the only way the candy totals work)

I think Punt, AC and Dragonatrix all look suspicious from this. Like I said before, I think scum would want to be giving away their candy. I especially don't like Punt pushing for a third vig.

Please demonstrate that wouldn't town want to give away candy too.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010






Puntification posted:

Please demonstrate that wouldn't town want to give away candy too.

I've said this before too. I want town to have the candy. There is one player in this game I know is town. Me. Hence why I want my candy to stay with me. Is everyone going to follow this logic? No. There's no way all three of you, AC and Dragon are scum but I think it's likely that at least one of you is.

100YrsofAttitude
Apr 29, 2013






Rarity posted:

I've said this before too. I want town to have the candy. There is one player in this game I know is town. Me. Hence why I want my candy to stay with me. Is everyone going to follow this logic? No. There's no way all three of you, AC and Dragon are scum but I think it's likely that at least one of you is.

I get what you're saying here. Very good pro-town reasons why they'd be keeping candy Punt.

Ernie.
Aug 31, 2012



I didn't give merk candy. I offered. Also, I haven't received candy from anyone. I started off with two, no one tricked me, and I tricked punt.

I just want to kill uranus. This may or may not have anything to do with his alignment. It doesn't. Although he probably is a bad guy.

Someone gift me candy so I can rid us of spacebutt.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010






Ernie, are you scum with AC?

Ernie.
Aug 31, 2012



Honestly, I'm completely uninterested in engaging you in anyway whatsoever until Uranus is eliminated.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010






If you never gave merk candy then the only way it can work is if Dragonatrix gave his second treat to merk and AC is lying about giving a piece to you.

apostateCourier
Oct 9, 2012



Rarity posted:

If you never gave merk candy then the only way it can work is if Dragonatrix gave his second treat to merk and AC is lying about giving a piece to you.

I gave a piece to Ernie. I checked and doublechecked my PM log to be sure, and I definitely gave a piece to Ernie.

apostateCourier
Oct 9, 2012



Rarity, walk me through your logic in saying that it HAS to be me lying.

derp
Jan 21, 2010

when i get up all i want to do is go to bed again



Lipstick Apathy

im a goodguy ernie.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010






Ok, stick with me here.

100YrsofAttitude posted:

100yrs- 1
Apostate- 2
BN- 1
Byers- 2
Dragon- 3
Ernie- 3
Karold- 2
Merk- 0
Punt-2
Rarity- 2
Somber- 3
Token- 2
Uranus- 3

Taking tricks into account this is the original candy tally (I added Punt's trick on AC)

Little Mac posted:

Official Candy Tally

100yrsofattitude - 1
Apostatecourier - 1
Big nothing - 0
Byers2142 - 1
Dragonatrix - 3
Ernie - 3
Harold Krell - 2
Merk - 3
Puntification - 1
Rarity - 2
Somberbrero - 3
Token Female - 2
Uranus - 5

This is the first candy update we got (I added the 4 that uranus turned into a vig). First thing to note is that there's 27 total instead of 26. The total from the next update is 26 again so it looks like Mac just screwed up and forgot to knock one off somebody's total after a treat. Given the amount of confusion regarding Somber's tally, I think it's safe to say that's where the mistake is. Therefore we get from the trick tally to this tally with the following claims:

BN -> merk
Somber -> merk
Punt -> merk
AC -> Punt
Punt -> uranus
Byers -> uranus

Little Mac posted:

Official Candy Tally

100YrsofAttitude 1
apostateCourier 1
Big Nothing 0
Byers2142 2
Dragonatrix 1
Ernie. 3
Harold Krell 2
merk 4
Puntification 1
Rarity 2
Somberbrero 2
Token Female 2
uranus 5

And then we come to the second official tally (I added 4 for merk's vig as well). The difference between the two tallies is have Byers (+1), Dragon (-2) and merk (+1). We know Dragon gave 1 to Byers so that accounts for that, leaving the only mysteries as what happened to Dragon's second treat and who gifted merk his final candy. With the claims on the table there are two possibilities:

1. Ernie treats merk, Dragonatrix treats AC, AC treats Ernie
2. Dragonatrix treats merk, AC doesn't treat Ernie

Conclusion: Either Ernie is lying about not treating merk or AC is lying about treating Ernie. Logically, there is the possibility Dragonatrix treated someone else with candy that ended up looping it's way round to merk but nobody's claimed any treats that would allow it so unless they do I'm discounting that.

Conclusion to the Conclusion: If AC's lying then there's one very clear reason for it. Scum can't treat scum so one of them flipping scum would make the other confirmed town. I haven't got a good reason for why Ernie would be lying.

Dragon, can you check your sent PMs and figure out what happened to your second treat?

Lotus Aura
Aug 16, 2009

KNEEL BEFORE THE WICKED KING!


Rarity posted:

Dragon, can you check your sent PMs and figure out what happened to your second treat?

Yeah, I did and there is just the one sent. I'd be inclined to write that off as just moderror since there doesn't seem to be any reason for it to happen otherwise. Went back through the thread to see if there was a trick that we just missed and nothing like that.

I am well aware that me wanting to write it off like that is incredibly suspect but it's the only conclusion that makes sense at the moment. Mostly this is because if we're counting out the totals, there seems to be another error in the new amounts too even discounting that. Started with 26, so we should be at 18 after the 2 dayvigs. Current totals are at 19 so not only did one go missing, but at least one more has been added somewhere too.

Ernie.
Aug 31, 2012



apostateCourier posted:

I gave a piece to Ernie. I checked and doublechecked my PM log to be sure, and I definitely gave a piece to Ernie.

Unless someone has access to a secret out-of-thread stealing mechanism then I have definitely not received anything from you. Are we sure that this isn't just because you sent it later than Mac's last login?

Cartridgeblowers
Jan 3, 2006

Super Mario Bros 3




Official Candy Tally

1. merk 0
2. Somberbrero 2
3. uranus 1
4. 100YrsofAttitude 1
5. apostateCourier 1
6. Dragonatrix 1
7. Byers2142 2
8. Puntification 1
9. Rarity 2
10. Token Female 2
11. Big Nothing 0
12. Ernie. 3
13. Harold Krell 2

Ernie.
Aug 31, 2012



Either way, there's too much noise about a mechanic that won't really tell us anything until our first flip, and not enough talking about our first flip.

Uranus is still a bad guy. If he's not bad guy then Puntification is but not because of anything Punti did/said to Uranus.

Puntification
Nov 4, 2009

Black Orthodontromancy
The most British Magic



Fun Shoe

I just asked mac to clarify whether any errors have happened on his end.

derp
Jan 21, 2010

when i get up all i want to do is go to bed again



Lipstick Apathy

##treat ernie

i trust you not to kill me ernie, cause you know im a goodguy. if ernie actually does kill me with he's probably bad.

merk
May 20, 2003

##interact

uranus posted:

##treat ernie

i trust you not to kill me ernie, cause you know im a goodguy. if ernie actually does kill me with he's probably bad.

You treat in PM.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010






Dragonatrix posted:

Current totals are at 19 so not only did one go missing, but at least one more has been added somewhere too.

Nope, we're at 18 and you've definitely treated two people.

Cartridgeblowers
Jan 3, 2006

Super Mario Bros 3




There is a slight miscount in the numbers, but it's not too far off from what I've posted. Not sure where the mixup is, but I apologize.

1. merk 0
2. Somberbrero 1
3. uranus 0
4. 100YrsofAttitude 1
5. apostateCourier 0
6. Dragonatrix 2
7. Byers2142 2
8. Puntification 1
9. Rarity 2
12. Ernie. 1
13. Harold Krell 2

Ernie.
Aug 31, 2012



i feel powerful

i feel very, very powerful

spacebutt, my will to discover the bad-guys far outweighs my will to avenge my demise elsewhere

let me read this thread and come to a decision

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010






Little Mac posted:

There is a slight miscount in the numbers, but it's not too far off from what I've posted. Not sure where the mixup is, but I apologize.

1. merk 0
2. Somberbrero 1
3. uranus 0
4. 100YrsofAttitude 1
5. apostateCourier 0
6. Dragonatrix 2
7. Byers2142 2
8. Puntification 1
9. Rarity 2
12. Ernie. 1
13. Harold Krell 2

Well that's 12 total and that makes no sense whatsoever. I'm done with this. Imagine me tearing up a notebook.

Ernie.
Aug 31, 2012



All the thoughts I didn't publicize before now:

100YrsofAttitude posted:

I don't get Ernie's vote on Punt and would need that explained. Punt's above comment is really helpful since givers can't be scum buddies to whomever they gave. It could get us some confirmed town later in the game.

TLDR

I would say Uranus, Rarity, then Ernie, but I'd rather you didn't shoot and sat on it for a bit cause I'm nowhere sold on any of these, not even to comfortably vote them.

I didn't like this post when 100Yrs first made it. 'Ernie suspects Punt, but Punt made a town-favoring post, and so I suspect Ernie' is pretty surface-level analysis from 100Yrs.

Byers2142 posted:

I disagree on Krell; he made the first really in-depth post of the game and in it called merk potentially green, because they've rarely played together in the past. He's also suggesting merk might be scummy, but his action was to try and keep the kill away from merk which fits if he thinks merk shouldn't be trusted with the kill regardless of alignment. It feels genuine and is a bad case because of who merk, specifically, is.

Byers is probably town this game. When he's scum he gets super-excited to start casting doubt on everyone around him. Here he stuck his neck out for Krell relatively quickly.

Dragonatrix posted:

I am well aware that me wanting to write it off like that is incredibly suspect but it's the only conclusion that makes sense at the moment. Mostly this is because if we're counting out the totals, there seems to be another error in the new amounts too even discounting that. Started with 26, so we should be at 18 after the 2 dayvigs. Current totals are at 19 so not only did one go missing, but at least one more has been added somewhere too.

This feels honest. I find that preemptive posts are overwhelmingly made by un-guilty town. Scum pre-emptiveness is exclusive to them pretending like their thoughts are evolving. This on the other hand has no effect on the grand scale of the game, but Dragon feels like he should be honest upfront about it nonetheless.

___

This is where I would read Krell. I am not reading Krell.
___

merk posted:

Yo, give me the candy. As I've said in previous games, I'm the player here who you can trust will use the item in the most pro-town way possible. If I'm town, you trust my game theory, you always have. Even if I am scum, which I am not, I will use a publicly available item in the most pro-town way possible so that I look town using it.

I've blindly trusted merk as town since this post. If he were scum he'd probably paint it as pro-scum to not gift him candies, or he'd not be as honest-sounding. I've recently actually had a good run of reading merk recently and this fits with that well.

Rarity posted:

I haven't got a good reason for why Ernie would be lying.

I think Rarity sounds logical here, but this is the exact sort of post scum would make to sound ~totally town~. Null read.

Puntification posted:

Conveniently meaning you won't have to take responsibility for it if it goes wrong.

Puntification posted:

How do you feel about krell?

These posts bugged me immensely when I first read them. They totally read like newbie scum that's trying to sow doubt and seem helpful all too hard.

But then

uranus posted:

nice catch

this is possibly the least likely post in the world that i would expect spacebutt to make in reaction to punti's post

apostateCourier posted:

I don't like that Krell disappeared after I called him out.

##vote Krell Talk to me, Krell.

Apo isn't at all self-conscious here, and town apo totally believes in voting for pressure. Sombrero replies with:

Somberbrero posted:

Strong gut read on AC. ##vote apostateCourier

This feels like a safe, opportunistic vote.

Somberbrero posted:

##holiday Founder's Day because America.

##trick Byers

Merk, I'll shoot who you tell me to.

This was also a p bad post, he tries to get on merk's good side with the mechanic, instead of exploiting it to confirm that someone he might think is scum (not-merk) gifts him a candy.

In summary, I'd probably list my scum-picks as

Sombrero > Uranus > Puntification > 100Yrs > Rarity

not willing to vig/cuddle anyone else today

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Ernie.
Aug 31, 2012



hmm

##vote sombebrero

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