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Smythe posted:plane on a conveyer belt is my favorite goon thing. i also like helicopter on a turntable once a dude told me a trick and you get a jar and you wet the rim and you fart in it and then put it somewhere flat and the rim makes a seal and later on someone comes along, wonders what it is and lifts it up and bang they get a stinky one right in the throat
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Oct 25, 2014 23:01
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Smythe posted:plane on a conveyer belt is my favorite goon thing. i also like helicopter on a turntable this sounds like an amusement park ride
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Oct 25, 2014 23:18
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echinopsis posted:once a dude told me a trick and you get a jar and you wet the rim and you fart in it and then put it somewhere flat and the rim makes a seal and later on someone comes along, wonders what it is and lifts it up and bang they get a stinky one right in the throat ROFL
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Oct 25, 2014 23:42
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QuarkJets posted:The host reveals a dickbutt behind one of the doors that you didn't choose. He then asks if you would like to switch. You look over, and he is now a dickbutt. "yes i will switch" you say, gayly, but behind your new door is just yospos i get it now
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Oct 25, 2014 23:44
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echinopsis posted:once a dude told me a trick and you get a jar and you wet the rim and you fart in it and then put it somewhere flat and the rim makes a seal and later on someone comes along, wonders what it is and lifts it up and bang they get a stinky one right in the throat reminds me of that prank where you hide a turd under someone's pillow
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Oct 25, 2014 23:45
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TOOT BOOT posted:reminds me of that prank where you hide a turd under someone's pillow lol, wow, classic jokester. i heard about a prank where you roofie somebody and disembowel them while they're alseep. lmfao
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Oct 25, 2014 23:47
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TOOT BOOT posted:reminds me of that prank where you hide a turd under someone's pillow have you heard of the prank where you make good posts
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Oct 25, 2014 23:49
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echinopsis posted:i feel like i should like the doors, mescaline and all, but i just dont. how could someone on so many awesome drugs write that kind of music drugs do not turn you into a super musician 
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Oct 25, 2014 23:50
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Widdiful posted:have you heard of the prank where you make good posts nope, it doesnt sound like anything i'd be into, sorry
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Oct 25, 2014 23:51
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MALE SHOEGAZE posted:idk someone bought it for me hot canadian chick i think
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Oct 26, 2014 02:35
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iirc the monty hall problem was first stated by a woman and she got a lot of poo poo (even from university professors) for saying switching is better
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Oct 26, 2014 09:34
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buttcoin 
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Oct 26, 2014 09:37
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Symbolic Butt posted:iirc the monty hall problem was first stated by a woman and she got a lot of poo poo (even from university professors) for saying switching is better #GamerGate confirmed
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Oct 26, 2014 09:47
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spankmeister posted:#GamerGate confirmed #GoatGate
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Oct 26, 2014 10:02
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qntm posted:drugs do not turn you into a super musician no but they should show you what is bad about poo poo music, hopefully showing you the wrong path should push you towards a good one
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Oct 26, 2014 10:35
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One fine Sunday you wake up in a cell and just as you're getting your bearings your captor starts talking to you. He tells you he's had enough of your posting, and he's going to execute you one morning before the next Sunday, and whatever day he picks will be a complete surprise. As he leaves you start thinking. If he doesn't execute you by Friday then you'll know it's coming on Saturday. So it can't be Saturday. But by the same logic, if it's not Thursday then you'll know it's Friday! So in fact he can't execute you at all according to the rules he laid down. You spend the next couple of days smug in the knowledge that he can't do anything to you and on Tuesday morning he comes in and shoots you in the face. Surprise, motherfucker.
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Oct 26, 2014 14:42
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define "surprise" and we can have this discussion
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Oct 26, 2014 14:55
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qntm posted:define "surprise" and we can have this discussion surprise (n.): motherfucker
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Oct 26, 2014 18:00
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Boom
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Oct 26, 2014 18:06
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Fib posted:One fine Sunday you wake up in a cell and just as you're getting your bearings your captor starts talking to you. He tells you he's had enough of your posting, and he's going to execute you one morning before the next Sunday, and whatever day he picks will be a complete surprise. As he leaves you start thinking. If he doesn't execute you by Friday then you'll know it's coming on Saturday. So it can't be Saturday. But by the same logic, if it's not Thursday then you'll know it's Friday! So in fact he can't execute you at all according to the rules he laid down. You spend the next couple of days smug in the knowledge that he can't do anything to you and on Tuesday morning he comes in and shoots you in the face. Surprise, motherfucker. as a bachelor of economics i must say this is the finest explanation of the prisoner's dilemma i have ever seen
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Oct 26, 2014 18:12
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maniacdevnull posted:as a bachelor of economics i must say
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Oct 26, 2014 18:15
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bachelor of farts 
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Oct 26, 2014 19:28
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Sham bam bamina! posted:there is literally nothign to get, you have a 2/3 chance of getting a bad door wiht your first try and a guaranteed good door if you switch from a bad one, so that's 2/3 chance of a good door when you swicth its not that the correct explanation is confusing to ppl, it's that a very similar scenario has 1:1 odds * if you pick a door, then monty opens a goat door that you didn't pick, the odds are 2:1 for switching * if monty opens a goat door, then you pick from a door monty didn't pick, the odds are 1:1 if ur not trained in the art of math sperg then there's a good chance you won't even recognize these two setups as being distinct problems, so you automatically come up with the wrong answer and get confused when someone gives a different answer to "the same problem"
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Oct 26, 2014 19:38
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Dixie Cretin Seaman posted:its not that the correct explanation is confusing to ppl, it's that a very similar scenario has 1:1 odds well if u havent picked a door yet it's impossible to switch doors at all you nimrod!
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Oct 26, 2014 21:17
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nope I'm too dumb this is insane to me because I remember it being intuitive once, I even wrote a python script to run the scenario like a thousand times and got the correct result but I cannot tell you why
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Oct 26, 2014 21:23
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MALE SHOEGAZE posted:well if u havent picked a door yet it's impossible to switch doors at all you nimrod! your avatar is v. confusing because i constantly think your someone else
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Oct 26, 2014 21:24
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Mido posted:nope I'm too dumb imagine there are 100 doors. you pick one, and then he closes the other 98. now your odds are like, 98:1 in favor of switching (or something i suck at ratios) intuitive now?
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Oct 26, 2014 21:29
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spankmeister posted:your avatar is v. confusing because i constantly think your someone else lol yeah it confuses me too
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Oct 26, 2014 21:30
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why is this so hard your first choice no longer exists once you have the new information
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Oct 26, 2014 21:31
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duTrieux. posted:why is this so hard Why is this concept so hard? *said by an alien with a super huge cranium who has evolved psychic powers and insane intellect* Spock: *raises an eyebrow*
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Oct 26, 2014 21:34
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duTrieux. posted:why is this so hard okay now i don't get it
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Oct 26, 2014 21:38
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the way that makes sense to me is that, when you're asked if you want to switch, you're actually being asked "do you think you were wrong the first time" and if you choose to switch you're betting against your first guess being right. that is to say, by switching you are saying "i was probably wrong the first time" which is true, since your first guess is one-in-three. 
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Oct 26, 2014 21:43
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tell me we aren't literally doing this do I need to draw a diagram
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Oct 26, 2014 22:41
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MALE SHOEGAZE posted:well if u havent picked a door yet it's impossible to switch doors at all you nimrod! case 1: you pick one of the 3 doors. then monty opens a goat door you didn't pick. monty asks you: stay or switch to the other closed door? case 2: monty opens a goat door. then you pick one of the 2 doors monty didn't open. monty asks you: stay or switch to the other closed door? in both cases in the end you have a goat door opened and a choice between two remaining possible prize doors. in case 1 switching is the 2:1 favorite in case 2 switching makes no difference people get confused b/c when case 1 is described they implicitly think of case 2, not realizing that they are subtly different. here's why: both cases start with a setup that has no bias towards any particular door (none of the doors are picked out as more likely than any other to be picked for a prize, or for you or monty to open, etc). often when a prob/stat problem is set up that way and you're comparing probabilities between two doors at the end, you can make a symmetry argument to immediately conclude that the probabilities should be equal. usually these arguments are not made explicit in basic courses, just with informal arguments that sound obvious. this is why if you're used to these arguments you're primed to get MH wrong. both cases above seem like they should work with this kind of symmetry intuition. the reason it fails in case 1 is that in order to immediately conclude that "stay door" and "switch door" have equal probability of having the prize, you need everything in the setup to be symmetric, but your initial choice of a door ruins the symmetry of the prob distribution for monty's door choice: if you happen to choose the prize door, he has two doors to randomly choose from, but if you choose a goat door, he only has a single door he can open. it's all still symmetric w/r/t labels like "door 1", "door 2", "door 3" but it isn't symmetric w/r/t labels like "stay door", "switch door", "opened door".
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Oct 26, 2014 22:58
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yes, OR you could say that Monty destabilizes the system by introducing information into it. He knows where the goats are and he HAS to pick a door with a goat, and he can't open your door. So you pick either a door with a goat or the prize at 1/3 odds of picking the prize, then Monty opens a goat door, leaving the last door with 2/3 odds for having the prize. if Monty didn't know where the goats are there'd be a chance of him picking the prize just as easy
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Oct 26, 2014 23:07
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Boxturret posted:okay now i don't get it
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Oct 26, 2014 23:22
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oh god dammit I was completely misunderstanding the scenario
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Oct 26, 2014 23:24
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by remaining with your original choice you are still locked into the original 1:3 odds of getting it right, by switching you refresh your odds and it becomes 2:3 now that we've learned a door we didn't pick was a goat if you run this simulation with a good rng you will get these results, I've done it before and I was just forgetting things it's confusing if you don't focus on exactly what rules of the scenario are
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Oct 26, 2014 23:37
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Monty hall is an exercise in how probability stuff is really annoying to explain in words
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Oct 26, 2014 23:47
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if you have three butts and one of them doesnt have a fart in it and you pick the middle but and then the butt on the left farts, should you change your pick to the butt on the right?
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Oct 27, 2014 00:54
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