Joementum posted:

Republicans – 498 respondents

Jeb Bush 19
Ben Carson 25
Chris Christie 2
Ted Cruz 3
Carly Fiorina 5
Lindsey Graham 0
Mike Huckabee 2
Bobby Jindal 1
John Kasich 3
George Pataki 0
Rand Paul 0
Rick Perry 0
Marco Rubio 6
Rick Santorum 0
Donald Trump 29
Scott Walker 1
Someone else 1
Undecided 4
Margin of error 4

Samuel Clemens posted:

What happened to Scott Walker? I don't recall him being involved in any scandals during the last two months. Is it just because no one cares about him now that Trump's running?

Phlegmish posted:

That's something I've been wondering as an outsider, why does the Republican Party always put forward such embarrassing clowns? It seems like up until a few decades ago they were a more serious, respectable party. Even with Nixon I get the impression that he was knowledgeable and committed in his own way, though he might have been a bastard. Then Reagan got elected and it just kept getting worse and worse from that point. What happened? Who are these people talking about Harry Potter being satanic and 'legitimate rape' like it's the seventeenth century? They're insane and they're turning the US into a Third World laughing stock in the eyes of the rest of the developed world. I don't know how it's even possible for that kind of political regression to occur, it seems to flout what you'd normally expect.

B B posted:

Governors in Wisconson are not term-limited, so he could run again.

Cigar Aficionado posted:

One thing to note about these polls is that between Trump, Carson, and Fiorina's numbers, combined they attract 50%+ of Republicans. All of them are "political outsiders", and not your typical GOP Presidential candidate.

The establishment candidates: Bush, Rubio, Christie, and Kasich, combine around 25% of the poll responders. 25% is about what Mitt Romney commanded throughout the entire primary process.

Bush, still the betting favourite to be the nominee, has seen his support drop from 15~ to half that, and seen his status go from first, to second, to third, to now floating somewhere between third and fifth overall. So far, it doesn't look like he has much of a plan to rebound.

Anyway, this thing seems completely wide open, without a decisive favourite whatsoever. And the primary itself has already been dragged extremely far right. Denigrating Muslims, Mexicans, gays, women, wanting to build a wall to keep Mexicans out, wanting to tear up the Iran deal and likely go to war, defunding Planned Parenthood and a litany of "mainstream" candidates who want no abortions with no exceptions... Not to mention the usual Obamacare repeal, lower taxes for the rich, deregulating industries, and a putting a gun in every school.

Those views are not supported by a collective 50%+ of Americans. It's very hard to see a way forward for that policy package taking a majority of the delegates next November unless something drastic happens in the world.

NotJesus posted:

Is that really that weird? Wouldn't that army of talking heads be pretty much the same people who are astroturfing Fiorina's campaign?
It's not like this would be the very first instance of revisionist doubletalk ever for them.

Fulchrum posted:

By what metric is it mediocre instead of terrible?

UnoriginalMind posted:

As someone from Wisconsin, I knew this would happen the moment he got onto the debate stage. He gets away with crap here because his party has a gerrymandered stranglehold.

Anyhow, his problems are all pretty closely connected. He's got no charisma. He doesn't think on his feet well. He's bad at being aggressive. And honestly? He's just not smart and comes off as such. He's a college dropout. This doesn't translate well to the national level of politics.

Bryter posted:

spunkshui posted:

Carson doesn't believe in evolution.

I know a bunch of people agree with him but not enough for presidency.

Venom Snake posted:

Well the train cars he would be using to "centralize" these "ethnic" troublemakers would be gold plated AND high speed, so I would say about a .7

Patter Song posted:

Suffolk/USAToday national poll:

Trump 23
Carson/Fiorina 13
Rubio 9
Bush 8
Cruz 6
Kasich/Huckabee/Paul 2
Christie/Jindal/Graham 1
Gilmore/Pataki/Santorum 0

I love how we've steadily watched Jeb go from consistently hitting first to second to third and now fifth and people still insist that his campaign has fine fundamentals that totally compensate for a lazy gaffe-prone candidate who is totally out of touch with his party's ideology and is openly despised by most of the primary electorate.

zen death robot posted:

Well it does help get a feel for what people would do when other candidates drop out.

Shageletic posted:

I'm reposting this article since someone brought up the "low white turnout gave Obama 2012" sibboleth a few pages ago and I apparently have nothing better to do.


http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2013/05/10-election-2012-minority-voter-turnout-frey

Which is also why the Republican primary is such a flaming tire fire btw.

Boosted_C5 posted:

Oh look, this tired and false talking point that retirees and students are driving the decline and everything is fine that I definitely have not seen over and over and over again.

The current participation rate among working aged Americans specifically, aged 25-54 i.e. excluding older Americans and typical college undergraduate AND graduate students, is also down and at over a 3 decade low.



But thanks for playing.

OctoberBlues posted:

lol

"A Struggling Jeb Bush May Lean on George W. in South Carolina"

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/05/us/politics/a-struggling-jeb-bush-may-lean-on-george-w-in-south-carolina.html

Neurolimal posted:

A true example of the power of bootstraps: if Jeb!'s campaign can succeed in spite of Jeb!, why cant you!

Aliquid posted:

Start at 13:00 or so

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/videos/2015-10-09/with-all-due-respect-10-09-15-

Montasque posted:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/carson-edges-closer-trump-thanks-white-evangelicals-n445556

Montasque posted:

I want to have a chat about "Conventional Wisdom" in regards to this GOP primary.

Here are some pearls of Conventional Wisdom past:

1. Polls this far out don't matter as no one is paying attention.
2. Ad buys are powerful at shaping narrative.
3. The Republicans never attack their own. "Reagan's law"
4. Although they may grumble, Republicans falls lockstep inline with the establishment.
5. The Candidate with the most establishment support will be the nominee.

Do these conventions hold up? IS THIS TIME DIFFERENT?

Full Battle Rattle posted:

In that video he says that there were 3 states that Rove was able to flip. I wonder what they were. Romney had a pretty massive electoral deficit to overcome, It's possible that even if they had tried to steal the election it wouldn't have worked because Obama kicked their asses so thoroughly.

Antti posted:

I guess America truly is colour blind because all of your Carson theorycrafting seems to just assume that his being black won't cause any problems with a huge portion of the Republican base.

DarkCrawler posted:

The fact that Donald Trump is STILL the GOP frontrunner is magical. Is he just really loving good at this or did he enter just at the right moment and he's just lucky?

Smoothrich posted:

Its not just that, I watch lots of foreign policy think tank presentations, and they've been poo poo talking Obama for years, and not understanding why no one cares about the analysts. There was even a memo recently that DoD analysts got together to complain to higher ups that the Obama administration was changing the words of their reports to make things like training Syrian rebels sound better than it really was. The same thing that seemed to of happened with Benghazi, when that lady was going around TV saying it was about a Muhammad Youtube and angry protesters. But reading about the consulate attack, it was done by soldiers. They set up mortars, cleared the area, came in by trucks and unloaded troops that surrounded the place, used suppressing fire on the rooftop to pin down and fatally wound 2 marines who fought to the death, used RPGs to blow up the entrance. Vilerat died of smoke inhalation, because they loving destroyed this place with artillery and RPGs in a full out assault, and the Ambassador I think locals desperately tried to save him but he died from wounds. Because they knew he was so important, he was really well-respected by Libyans as someone who gave a gently caress and provided order, which is why American bases and buildings exist all over the world, and his death was a real loss for them too. Then the entire nation fell apart. The security that the State Department hired for the consulate, literally abandoned the building before any of this happened, instead of being U.S. Marines or anything worth a drat. Its all one big disgrace for America, which is what Hillary is lol

Montasque posted:

His campaign also has a relatively low burn-rate and he is quietly building up a massive ground game across the south and in early states.

He is also a favorite of the talk-radio jocks who often site him as the most 'consistently conservative' of all candidates... He will pick up a big chunk of the Trump/Carson support if those candidates go away.

Three Olives posted:

I think Jeb! would be a terrible president but I honestly think he is the most qualified to go up against Clinton. Carson/Trump/Cruz would be utter disasters from the Republican party and probably have a major effect on down tickets, Clinton would chew up Rubio and it would probably cause serious harm to the Republican brand so honestly where does that leave them at the convention?

quote:

Danny Diaz did not have much to say to his fellow campaign managers. The man behind Jeb Bush's presidential campaign was a surprise arrival at Sunday night's emergency meeting; after all, it was a brainchild of former neurosurgeon Ben Carson, the latest outsider candidate to surge past the once-dominant Bush campaign in the polls. Diaz even managed to avoid the reporters staking out the Hilton Alexandria Old Town, chasing anybody who showed up for what had been code-named "family meeting."

[GOP contenders demand greater control over crucial debates]

The campaign managers were meeting to try to gain more control over the crucial primary debates, which have become a source of anger and frustration for the GOP presidential candidates. The following account of the meeting is based on interviews with several attendees, who asked not to be named because they were describing a private gathering.

According to the sources in the room, Diaz did not say much. He did not chime in when other campaigns shot down the idea of splitting the debates into two randomly-selected contests of seven candidates each, and he did not interrupt as others agreed that Fox Business, the next debate host, could do as it liked. He spoke up only to say that a planned February debate with NBC News, the one "suspended" by the Republican National Committee, needed to be salvaged. The debate partner was supposed to be Telemundo, and Republicans could not stiff the only Spanish-language network allowed into the cycle.

Corey Lewandowski, Donald Trump's crewcut campaign manager, shot him down.

"If you do that," he said, "Trump walks."

"Diaz dropped his head, like he was defeated," an attendee said.

Here was the latest example of political outsiders humbling the Republican establishment. It had entered this election cycle with dreams of expanding the party and winning over Hispanic voters. Instead, it was contorting to meet the demands of Trump, a candidate who began his campaign with a promise to finish a border wall and keep "rapists" out of the country. Diaz's second idea, to give candidates final approval of any chyrons or banners that appeared onscreen, was less controversial.

Alter Ego posted:

Jesus loving Christ. No, don't question our morality, but we can accuse Democrats of being baby-killing savages, Muslims of being bloodthirsty monsters, and anyone who's not straight, white, Christian and male as being unclean and hellbound.

gently caress these people. News flash, asshats--when you run a campaign that is centered on you being "morally" pure, then you drat sure better be prepared to get questions on morality.

Do Not Resuscitate posted:

Hopefully this is the last time we see Paul, Fiorina and Kasich on the main debate stage.