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Holy poo poo, it's 2015. It's THE FUTURE. And you know what's in the future? Fancy loving Stats. BASICS: Fenwick: Shots + Missed Shots (sometimes called unblocked shot attempts) Corsi: Shots + Shots Blocked + Missed Shots (sometimes called shot attempts) Fenwick assumes that blocking shots is a skill that may reduce the likelihood of a goal against. Corsi assumes that whether or not a shot is blocked does not matter: it is treated as any other shot attempt. The point of Fenwick and Corsi is to act as a proxy for possession. People argue about which is better, but the difference is generally small. Corsi has an advantage of having a larger sample size. PDO: This is the sum of team save percentage and team shooting percentage. League-wide, this sums to 1 per team, per definition. A PDO above 1 is considered to be "lucky", and teams are expected to regress to 1, but in rare cases it may actually represent a higher-than-average shooting percentage and/or a higher-than-average save percentage as a result of team and/or goalie skill. Fancy stats for the season per NaturalStatTrick:  Yes, Buffalo is that bad. TWITTER: A lot of good fancy statsing is happening on Twitter. This guy posts past-25 games score-adjusted Corsi every day (psst this is good for betting) along with other things like President's trophy favourites: http://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath  This guy posts.. stuff. Like the following, but also other things. Beaulieu is good I guess? Just go look, I don't really know what he does yet: http://twitter.com/MimicoHero  This guy runs hockeystats.ca and is often involved in fancy stats conversations: http://twitter.com/theninjagreg WEBSITES: Real time stats per game: http://hockeystats.ca/. An example:  spoiler: the Canucks won. Something called "score affects" may have affected the above graph, where the trailing team is expected to have more shot attempts than the leading team, as the leading team is sitting back and holding the lead. Season stats: http://www.naturalstattrick.com/ http://www.puckalytics.com/ http://www.behindthenet.ca/ http://war-on-ice.com/ This one has score-adjusted corsi which is kind of a new thing: http://www.puckon.net/ There's lots I'm forgetting. Please give me links to add! Also, like, people will be playing hockey this year. I guess. Whatever. note to mods: I'm allowed to image leech from Twitter now, right? Since, you know, future. If not please tell me and I'll rehost. toe knee hand fucked around with this message at 01:30 on Jan 2, 2015 |
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Jan 1, 2015 10:47
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drat, that's an effort post I didn't read to start the month, good job (No seriously, it's good)
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Jan 1, 2015 13:30
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Finally got to watch some of the not 24/7 show, Epix is no HBO. The content is fine, but really the follow a sports team documentary isn't new ground any more and they had old hands running it. But Jesus, the production/post production are not good. The color correction is bad, really bad, and the camera work is just passable. I don't know if it was budget issues, or if the team they assembled weren't able to handle all the finishing in the turn around time allotted, but really, the NHL should push for a better looking product to market their big game. Of course it should also be on a network more than like 5 people can watch as well.
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Jan 1, 2015 15:19
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fancy stats are the present, not the future. if you dig around on any stat guy twitter for a while, checking out who he retweets, you'll find hundreds of twitters of Canadian uni students studying all types of math related fields, all of whom just tweet out charts and stats and advanced analytical concepts. it is all they do for eight hours a day, churn out hockey stats into vaguely readable formats. there is some Chinese kid studying astrophysics who is doing some of the craziest analysis I've ever seen, but I lost his twitter account and can't remember where I found it. pretty much, this shits going to be exploding within the next calendar year and you should hop on the bandwagon now, much like you should with the Islanders, future Stanley Cup champions
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Jan 1, 2015 15:44
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Don't use behindthenet's 5v5 goal numbers. They count empty net goals, whereas hockeyanalysis/puckalytics don't. Is there any other site with the fancy WOWY pages that hockeyanalysis has? Google WOWY <any player> and you'll see what I mean.
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Jan 1, 2015 16:08
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eXXon posted:Don't use behindthenet's 5v5 goal numbers. They count empty net goals, whereas hockeyanalysis/puckalytics don't. nobody else even publicly tracks WOWY, afaik. is there something you don't like about the way hockey analysis does it?
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Jan 1, 2015 16:16
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The best part of 2015 will be when Dion Phaneuf hoists the cup
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Jan 1, 2015 16:18
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Aha Ahahaholy poo poo.  Look at that. "Give him an extension before he's played a game" they said. "He's worth the trade" they said.
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Jan 1, 2015 16:23
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Aye Doc posted:nobody else even publicly tracks WOWY, afaik. is there something you don't like about the way hockey analysis does it? Nothing except that the graphs and multi-season aggregation don't work with 2014-15 yet.
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Jan 1, 2015 16:29
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Paulocaust posted:The best part of 2015 will be when Dion Phaneuf hoists the cup Even as a Leafs fan, that shouldn't be a thing you want to see happen.
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Jan 1, 2015 17:34
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LumpyGumby posted:Aha Christ I can't wait for Elliot to get better  Also is it fair to compare considering how many games Stuart missed? Oh hell I know they answer, yes, he's terrible and we were all happier when he was injured
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Jan 1, 2015 17:53
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That is an awesome OP, just as awesome as fancy stats, which I love.
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Jan 1, 2015 18:11
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So Buffalo is bad
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Jan 1, 2015 18:17
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is the game being pushed back or not 
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Jan 1, 2015 18:25
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Levitate posted:is the game being pushed back or not No decision until after warm up skate according to Twitter.
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Jan 1, 2015 18:30
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The Oilers have a 50 CF%, but a horrifically low PDO. Like 40 points below what every team should theoretically regress to. Bottom 3 shooting, dead last save percentage. Does this mean that they should be on the upswing, and things should start going their way? I don't really think so, based purely on the fact that "Oilers.jpeg" is a thing. Also, I'm glad that the Rangers and the Islanders are both good. (Isles have horrible sv% though. )
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Jan 1, 2015 18:30
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Looks like at least Karl Alzner will wear sunglasses under his visor today.
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Jan 1, 2015 18:46
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Levitate posted:is the game being pushed back or not Starting on time. And it looks like Jay "has incriminating photos" Beagle will be starting in the Capitals top line.
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Jan 1, 2015 18:50
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Rotten Cookies posted:The Oilers have a 50 CF%, but a horrifically low PDO. Like 40 points below what every team should theoretically regress to. Bottom 3 shooting, dead last save percentage. Does this mean that they should be on the upswing, and things should start going their way? I don't really think so, based purely on the fact that "Oilers.jpeg" is a thing. 2) I don't really buy the goalie half of PDO. It's hung on two or three players, as opposed to every skater for the shot percentage. You'll see the same results if you have bad luck and let in a bunch of shots that should've been posts, or if you just have poo poo goaltending. That being said, in addition to being a spectacularly bad hockey team, the Oilers have also been spectacularly unlucky. Which is why they have two wins in their last 24 games.
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Jan 1, 2015 18:54
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LumpyGumby posted:Aha Jets probably should have kept Redmond instead of holding onto Pardy and Postma
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Jan 1, 2015 18:59
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Albino Squirrel posted:1) Fancystats don't capture the quality of every shot. So the Oilers may get an equivalent amount of shot attempts off, but that doesn't really matter if you a) fail to pinch and let in an ungodly number of odd-man rushes, or b) completely poo poo the bed on your defensive zone play (see: Jultzing) No, yeah. While the shooting percentage might just be a "puck luck" thing, it might also be because they don't quite have a system and can't get quality shots, but their defense is definitely not the type that reduces high quality chances for the other team. Their goalie is regularly let out to dry with open men in front. Like you said, that's not reaaalllly on the goalie. E: I was just trying to make a stupid non-comment joke about the Oilers.
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Jan 1, 2015 19:08
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The Dirty Burger posted:Jets probably should have kept Redmond instead of holding onto Pardy and Postma I dont think the Jets were expecting to field a top pair consisting of one of Pardy or Postma what with all the injuries that team has been getting this season. Also, I cant be the only one impressed with how promising the Jets prospect pool is looking these days. They could be a real contender in a few years, and a wild card team this year if they had managed to stay healthy.
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Jan 1, 2015 19:12
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Albino Squirrel posted:1) Fancystats don't capture the quality of every shot. So the Oilers may get an equivalent amount of shot attempts off, but that doesn't really matter if you a) fail to pinch and let in an ungodly number of odd-man rushes, or b) completely poo poo the bed on your defensive zone play (see: Jultzing) Yea, some goalies are legitimately better than other goalies. There's also always a lot of argument about team systems and defensive quality and their impact on save %, with (not addressing you, just adding on to this post) For PDO, most teams will end up finishing the season within the 0.98-1.02 range. But there's usually some outliers. Possession stats like CF% are better predictors of future success than win % or goals for % (which implicitly allow PDO to matter rather than assuming it will henceforth be 1 for every team), maybe because for every team that's just not good there's two teams that have actually been really unlucky, but of course they're not perfect. toe knee hand fucked around with this message at 19:16 on Jan 1, 2015 |
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Jan 1, 2015 19:12
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The Oilers are really, really bad. Like, it was really clear vs the Flames last night. They can barely manage tape to tape passes. A game or two might have been lost because of "bad luck" but the real cause of their low PDO and it's components is that they really loving suck.
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Jan 1, 2015 19:22
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And this is a thought I had about Corsi: it works as a stat because hockey players and people who run hockey teams don't really believe in it. If a team decided to really buy in to Corsi, and to just take as many shots as possible instead of setting up good shots, they probably wouldn't be very good. But because hockey players and hockey systems care about puck movement and traffic in front of the net and other things that make a shot more likely to go in, Corsi usually works.
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Jan 1, 2015 19:23
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Furnaceface posted:I dont think the Jets were expecting to field a top pair consisting of one of Pardy or Postma what with all the injuries that team has been getting this season. Yeah, Morrissey is pretty small but he's gonna be a stud if he pans out. Ehlers looks promising, and Nic Petan's another little guy who could be a boom/bust. And they have arguably the best goalie prospect in the league with Connor Hellebyuck Say what you will about his lack of trades/love of waiver wire garbage, Chevyldayoff's drafting team has been consistently rock solid. Firing Noel for Maurice looks to be working out as well
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Jan 1, 2015 19:27
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Not as sold on Petan but Ehlers is the real deal and will score at the NHL level. His speed and the ability to make quality decisions while playing at that speed is NHL level already. Morrissey reminds me of Severson and is a perfect prospect build for today's NHL. And yeah Hellebyuck looks quite good as does Comrie. Andrew Copp was a nice pickup too. He's the kind of grinder you want in the NHL today -- good skills to go with great boardwork. LA Kings type guy.
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Jan 1, 2015 20:04
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So I was going through some teat stats yesterday and was blown away that the Rangers are currently tied for fourth in the NHL with the Islanders in goals per game. What the gently caress?
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Jan 1, 2015 20:05
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Brodeurs Nanny posted:So I was going through some teat stats yesterday and was blown away that the Rangers are currently tied for fourth in the NHL with the Islanders in goals per game. What the gently caress? New York fuckin' rules.* *what the hell is Buffalo?
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Jan 1, 2015 20:06
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I wish the NHL would make more use of different camera angles in regular games and not just the WC. Ref gorpos should be standard by now. Wire cam up top is cool too.
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Jan 1, 2015 20:16
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Is there a gif of that Giroux goal last night? I can't find anything on google
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Jan 1, 2015 20:20
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Sasha aint ratchet posted:Is there a gif of that Giroux goal last night? I can't find anything on google One of the rare things reddit is good for: https://gfycat.com/BelovedWaterloggedAmericanbobtail Ridiculous goals always show up on /r/hockey
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Jan 1, 2015 20:35
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Sasha aint ratchet posted:Is there a gif of that Giroux goal last night? I can't find anything on google How about a gif with sound https://vine.co/v/Ow9KMrA7LHq
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Jan 1, 2015 20:37
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So Zack Kassian is no longer injured, but he'll be a healthy scratch tonight.
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Jan 1, 2015 20:38
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Brodeurs Nanny posted:So I was going through some teat stats yesterday and was blown away that the Rangers are currently tied for fourth in the NHL with the Islanders in goals per game. What the gently caress? If their defense and goaltending was worth a poo poo to start the season they'd be comfortably first in their division. It's taken until recently for them to really start playing like they're capable of (though they also have had a fairly easy schedule through December). Their offense in the second half of last year was actually also good, I think top ten compared to everyone else during that same period. They are honestly surprisingly a good offensive team.
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Jan 1, 2015 20:44
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toe knee hand posted:And this is a thought I had about Corsi: it works as a stat because hockey players and people who run hockey teams don't really believe in it. If a team decided to really buy in to Corsi, and to just take as many shots as possible instead of setting up good shots, they probably wouldn't be very good. But because hockey players and hockey systems care about puck movement and traffic in front of the net and other things that make a shot more likely to go in, Corsi usually works. The idea of Corsi is that it is a reflection of a team's puck possession abilities - that generally the more a team has a puck in the opposition end, the more shot attempts they will manufacture as a result and the more successful they will be over the long run. So at the most basic level, it may seem like the fancy stats crowd is advocating the sort of strategy you speculated about, the actual concept is that to improve your team's results you need to improve your possession of the puck. Throwing the puck away at the first opportunity pretty much runs opposite to that notion.
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Jan 1, 2015 20:51
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toe knee hand posted:And this is a thought I had about Corsi: it works as a stat because hockey players and people who run hockey teams don't really believe in it. If a team decided to really buy in to Corsi, and to just take as many shots as possible instead of setting up good shots, they probably wouldn't be very good. But because hockey players and hockey systems care about puck movement and traffic in front of the net and other things that make a shot more likely to go in, Corsi usually works. This is where statistics and analytics come apart. Shot attempts are just shot attempts, but their value and significance is contingent upon particular stylistic elements of the current game. (This is why I prefer 'raw' statistics to their usage- or score-adjusted partners.)
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Jan 1, 2015 20:53
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Del Zotto got his neck cut by a skate on his first shift last night. His first shift after being scratched for nine straight games. He took pictures http://instagram.com/p/xUrxb6QAx8/
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Jan 1, 2015 21:32
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Good thing for him chicks dig scars, right?
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Jan 1, 2015 21:37
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The only stat that matters is wins baby
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Jan 1, 2015 21:38
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