NHL N/V February - Rogers Delenda Est - The Something Awful Forums

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mentholmoose: Nov 5, 2009; YKNOW THERES ONLY ONE DIRECTION I KNOW AND THATS DRIVIN STRAIGHT TO THE NET

The All-Star Game, or the Super Bowl?

_{Yes, I am pissed the Patriots won, bite me.}

Here's toe knee hand's primer on fancy stats from the last OP:

quote:

BASICS:

Fenwick: Shots + Missed Shots (sometimes called unblocked shot attempts)

Corsi: Shots + Shots Blocked + Missed Shots (sometimes called shot attempts)

Fenwick assumes that blocking shots is a skill that may reduce the likelihood of a goal against. Corsi assumes that whether or not a shot is blocked does not matter: it is treated as any other shot attempt.

The point of Fenwick and Corsi is to act as a proxy for possession. People argue about which is better, but the difference is generally small. Corsi has an advantage of having a larger sample size.

PDO: This is the sum of team save percentage and team shooting percentage. League-wide, this sums to 1 per team, per definition. A PDO above 1 is considered to be "lucky", and teams are expected to regress to 1, but in rare cases it may actually represent a higher-than-average shooting percentage and/or a higher-than-average save percentage as a result of team and/or goalie skill.

Fancy stats for the season per NaturalStatTrick:

Yes, Buffalo is that bad.

TWITTER:

A lot of good fancy statsing is happening on Twitter.

This guy posts past-25 games score-adjusted Corsi every day (psst this is good for betting) along with other things like President's trophy favourites: http://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath

This guy posts.. stuff. Like the following, but also other things. Beaulieu is good I guess? Just go look, I don't really know what he does yet: http://twitter.com/MimicoHero

This guy runs hockeystats.ca and is often involved in fancy stats conversations: http://twitter.com/theninjagreg

WEBSITES:

Real time stats per game: http://hockeystats.ca/. An example:

spoiler: the Canucks won. Something called "score affects" may have affected the above graph, where the trailing team is expected to have more shot attempts than the leading team, as the leading team is sitting back and holding the lead.

Season stats:

http://www.naturalstattrick.com/

http://www.puckalytics.com/

http://www.behindthenet.ca/

http://war-on-ice.com/

This one has score-adjusted corsi which is kind of a new thing: http://www.puckon.net/

And here's Aye Doc's explanation of Score-Adjusted Corsi, and a bit on score effects:

quote:

the short answer is that it is Corsi taking into account the score and time left in the game, as compared to the league average in those situations.

i also wrote a long answer for some reason, and this will be way more information than you ever need, and a lot of it certainly will be irrelevant to the basic question, but I will try to explain it in-depth with some historical context because I think it is kind of neat to see how it all developed over a few years.

So one of the first things people noticed about Corsi (and later Fenwick) was that it did not account for the fact that teams play differently depending upon the situation of a game. As a Canadiens fan, you probably notice that Therrien has the team sit back extremely passively with a lead and I am sure he has a few other traits for other score situations. So, obviously, Corsi on its own is not giving the full picture - if a team is purposefully playing to give up possession, it will skew the numbers, so you need more data to really analyze things. They refer to this new set of data as "score effects," and it takes into account game score and time left in the game. So teams trailing by 2 goals get more aggressive and register more shots, teams ahead by 2 goals generally play less aggressively and get less shots.

Originally, people said okay, so we know that these scenarios alter the play style of teams - how do we adjust for it? The original idea was that you would only look at Corsi when the game was tied because that is the "normal" circumstance. So there was now Corsi Close, which is Corsi when the game is a one goal difference, and there are also Corsi Ahead/Behind/Even. Now instead of one Corsi, there are four and they all tell us something completely different. People started talking about Corsi Close like it was extremely the poo poo and the coolest and most predictive stat there was until some smart guy proved that all wrong, but it was at least enough of a starting point to kick analytics into the right place.

Now they had full data about score effects and shot differentials, it just took some calculations and a little time. The raw numbers were useless for a few reasons, but the primary being that every team is a whole lot loving different. As an example, Minnesota might run a system that suppresses shots and it has an even more pronounced effect in 2 goal difference situations, and Tampa Bay might run a system that has them unleashing a ridiculous amount of shots on net, again even more pronounced if there is a 2 goal difference. So how do you look at the difference between Tampa's CF% in a tie game versus their CF% down 2? You look at the league as a whole! So if Tampa is at 52% CF down 2, and the league average is 51%, you can now quantify how Tampa performs in that situation in a tangible and real way.

So score adjusted Corsi takes a team's Corsi Close, Even, Ahead, and Behind and how much Time on Ice they have in those situations, and throws it all together to spit out a number. Each game situation has a specific weighted value, I don't know which ones are given more importance off-hand or the specifics behind that.

Most likely, Montreal suck since January 1 and are bad but are being propped up by something beyond the measure of these numbers and that something is probably Carey Price.

Talk about hockey, I guess.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 17:02

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# ? Apr 25, 2024 05:47

Vicas: Dec 9, 2009; Sweet tricks, mom.

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/flyers/290483971.html just gonna repost this for the new thread because I'm still laughing about it

# ? Feb 2, 2015 17:03

DJExile: Jun 28, 2007

Philly has won 4 in a row :toot:

They are going to get destroyed by the Islanders again but hey, i'll take what i can get

# ? Feb 2, 2015 17:08

ThinkTank: Oct 23, 2007

So to recap January:

The Winter Classic happened

The World Cup is happening again (twice!)

A Ryder Cup rip off hockey thing might happen

Olympics probably aren't happening

The All Star Game happened and some people are grumpy about that

1-11-1 happened for the Leafs

0-12-0 happened for the Sabres

It sure was a month.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 17:12

Aphrodite: Jun 27, 2006

What was the 1 loser team for Toronto?

Was it Buffalo?

# ? Feb 2, 2015 17:14

Pornographic Memory: Dec 17, 2008

(carrying over from the other thread)

xzzy posted:

Yeah, if only there was some sort of post-season tournament structure they could use to determine who is the most manly. Perhaps they could compete for a trophy.

They should shift the all-star game to a pond hockey tournament, let kids sign up a team and they get an NHL star on their roster. Then it's about kids "living the dream" or whatever bullshit narrative the talking heads want to manufacture.

"How many kids could an NHLer beat up?" And now I'm just imagining two huge NHL level players surrounded by teams of like, 10 year olds, and remorselessly scoring on them at will and rocking them with huge checks.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 17:19

bewbies: Sep 23, 2003; Fun Shoe

The Blues last 10 is 9-0-1 and they are still are not in first place.

Also am nervously awaiting news on Shattenkirk and his consequences for trying to get physical with Ovie.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 17:25

larkko: Oct 4, 2008

loving

The TV rightsholder of the Finnish national team games is broadcasting the U18 NT's practice session live online just because Taymoo's son Eetu is with the team.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 17:27

ThinkTank: Oct 23, 2007

Aphrodite posted:

What was the 1 loser team for Toronto?

Was it Buffalo?

Columbus, they beat them 5-2 on January 9th. Bozak was the game's first star!

The only other point they got was a 2-1 shootout loss to the Devils on the 28th.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 17:34

JawKnee: Mar 24, 2007; You'll take the ride to leave this town along that yellow line

let's hope February treats the nucks better than January did

# ? Feb 2, 2015 17:35

thehustler: Apr 17, 2004; I am very curious about this little crescendo

Re this:

http://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath

So he posts them before the game, and if you're a betting person you should bet on the team that has the % figure next to them, because it means their past-25 game stats for possession are better than the other team, and the amount that they are better is that % figure in the graph title?

Still learning, obviously

# ? Feb 2, 2015 17:45

Mage_Boy: Dec 18, 2003; This hotdog is about as real as your story Steve Simmons

I read the comments on a Trib Live article out of morbid curiosity, and oh boy. Trade: Crosby Kunitz Bennet Letang since they all suck. Get more grit. I think I see why people hate Pens fans. (Or is every teams comment section this bad?)

# ? Feb 2, 2015 17:57

Good soup!: Nov 2, 2010

Vicas posted:

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/flyers/290483971.html just gonna repost this for the new thread because I'm still laughing about it

Hahaha, "The players aren't taking this utterly meaningless game seriously enough!!!! :qq:

"

Also not enough grit :argh:

# ? Feb 2, 2015 17:59

Pornographic Memory: Dec 17, 2008

Mage_Boy posted:

I read the comments on a Trib Live article out of morbid curiosity, and oh boy. Trade: Crosby Kunitz Bennet Letang since they all suck. Get more grit. I think I see why people hate Pens fans. (Or is every teams comment section this bad?)

I agree, trade the star defenseman who's been one of the brightest spots in a month of poo poo.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:01

THE MACHO MAN: Nov 15, 2007; ...Carey...

draw me like one of your French Canadian girls

Is Backes getting a hearing for that retarded hit he threw? He deserves a couple even with the gamer. It was that stupid.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:03

Mind_Taker: May 7, 2007

Homer post incoming:

Alex Ovechkin is 29 years old and a few years past what statistics cite as the prime age of a power forward (ages 22-25, or 2007-2009 were his prime years), and he is still absolutely crushing the league in shots on goal and is now in sole possession of first place in goals. He's certainly the favorite to win Richard again this year (though I would guess Stamkos has the best shot to pass him since he is such an accurate shooter) and yeah oh by the way his right-wingers this year have been a garbage heap consisting of Jay Beagle and Tom Wilson for large stretches, making him the only real shooter on his line. Teams know that his one-timer is coming on the PP, but they can't do a drat thing about it.

He's scored 30+ goals in each of his first 10 seasons, a feat accomplished by only 5 other players in NHL history, and that included 2 years of Oates (including one 48 game season) and 1 year of Hunter. He's been saddled with a poorly constructed team and poor coaching for most of his career (except for Boudreau and now Trotz) and aside from maybe calling Boudreau a "fat gently caress" he's never complained. Despite being labeled a playoff choker, he has 31G+30A in 58 playoff games.

Here are his era-adjusted goal-scoring numbers:

Oh and he's only missed like 10 games in his career due to injury despite playing a ton of minutes and being pretty physical (over-the-edge in the past, but he's cleaned it up in the past few years).

He's arguably the best goal-scorer of all-time if you believe in era-adjusting things and it's a god drat shame he hasn't even sniffed a Stanley Cup or Olympic medal yet.

The reason I posted this is because yesterday's game was indicative of his entire career: great individual performance negated by the rest of the team making GBS threads all over themselves in key moments.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:04

Mind_Taker: May 7, 2007

THE MACHO MAN posted:

Is Backes getting a hearing for that retarded hit he threw? He deserves a couple even with the gamer. It was that stupid.

Nope:

quote:

Jeremy Rutherford ‏@jprutherford 25m25 minutes ago

Backes will not face supplemental discipline for his hit Sunday. @NHLPlayerSafety believed the five-minute major was sufficient. #stlblues

So is he consider repeat-offender next time he has a questionable hit (or was he already)? If not that's kind of dumb.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:06

Furnaceface: Oct 21, 2004

Mage_Boy posted:

I read the comments on a Trib Live article out of morbid curiosity, and oh boy. Trade: Crosby Kunitz Bennet Letang since they all suck. Get more grit. I think I see why people hate Pens fans. (Or is every teams comment section this bad?)

I cant speak for other teams, but yeah the Hawks fan base is that bad. The January slump has brought all the crazies out and theyre all "Trade everyone, the team is terrible, they might as well tank for McDavid! :derp:

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:08

Aphrodite: Jun 27, 2006

Repeat offender only affects the fine. The league can consider anything they want when determining the suspension.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:08

THE MACHO MAN: Nov 15, 2007; ...Carey...

draw me like one of your French Canadian girls

Well that's just stupid. He definitely earned it since it was a charge and a board.

I caught that game yesterday and it's amazing how often Ovechkin gets open in the same spots all the time.

also I saw it mentioned in the other thread but Vermette would be perfect for the Rangers. Hayes has actually been pretty good all things considered. But a center who can win draws and be good for 40+ points is exactly what they need as long as the price isn't nuts.

THE MACHO MAN fucked around with this message at 18:13 on Feb 2, 2015

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:10

Aphrodite: Jun 27, 2006

Not just how often, but how long. Teams will just let him sit there for ages.

It's like they've decided there's no defending the shot, so the only option is preventing the pass from happening.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:12

Ginette Reno: Nov 18, 2006; How Doers get more done; Fun Shoe

Well you can't really just sit on it because Backstrom is an insanely good passer and will make you pay. Mike Green also has a cannon and great poise, and they have a few other guys that can score.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:13

Lumius: Nov 24, 2004; Superior Awesome Sucks

It's a real shame what the caps have done to themselves in the last few years, Ovechkin deserves a lot better.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:13

Aphrodite: Jun 27, 2006

If the Caps were successful we'd all probably hate Ovechkin.

It's for the best.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:15

THE MACHO MAN: Nov 15, 2007; ...Carey...

draw me like one of your French Canadian girls

Yeah everyone sinks down and leaves him open on the pp. But as stated the rest of the power play is really good too.

He's good at getting into good space on 5v5 too. I don't know I just caught a few recent Caps games and almost forgot how good he is

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:16

Mind_Taker: May 7, 2007

Aphrodite posted:

If the Caps were successful we'd all probably hate Ovechkin.

It's for the best.

I think people only started hating him for a bit because he got suspended a few times for some dirty hits. It just happened to coincide with when the Capitals were at their best in 2009-10.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:21

Rotten Cookies: Nov 11, 2008; gosh! i like both the islanders and the rangers!!! :^)

I mean, gently caress the Caps and everything, but Ovi is one of those guys that I want to have a legitimate shot at a cup. He's a phenomenal player that works really hard.

Too bad he's Russian.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:22

Aphrodite: Jun 27, 2006

Mind_Taker posted:

I think people only started hating him for a bit because he got suspended a few times for some dirty hits. It just happened to coincide with when the Capitals were at their best in 2009-10.

SAS hates success more than anything. 3 years ago Dustin Brown was a well liked player here.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:24

Furnaceface: Oct 21, 2004

e: ^^^^ Pretty sure SAS likes Bergeron despite his success and wanting to see the Bruins end up Buffalo levels of bad.

Rotten Cookies posted:

I mean, gently caress the Caps and everything, but Ovi is one of those guys that I want to have a legitimate shot at a cup. He's a phenomenal player that works really hard.

People used to say this about Iginla too. Then he signed with Pittsburgh to chase a Cup. Then Boston.

Now we continue to forget that he is throwing his final years away in Colorado.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:24

Vicas: Dec 9, 2009; Sweet tricks, mom.

Aphrodite posted:

If the Caps were successful we'd all probably hate Ovechkin.

It's for the best.

Ovie is starting to get close to "vet who really needs some hardware" age, on the range of SAS sympathies

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:25

Luceo: Apr 29, 2003; As predicted in the Bible.

So what you're saying is that McDavid shouldn't be allowed to be wasted on the Sabres or Oilers, like Ovie is wasted on the Caps? :v:

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:25

Habibi: Dec 8, 2004; We have the capability to make San Jose's first Cup Champion.

The Sharks could be that Champion.

Aphrodite posted:

SAS hates success more than anything. 3 years ago Dustin Brown was a well liked player here.

Kopitar is still cool. Pretty sure opinion on Brown swung for reasons unrelated to success.

Furnaceface posted:

Now we continue to forget that he is throwing his final years away in Colorado.

Hah. You're right.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:26

Mind_Taker: May 7, 2007

Aphrodite posted:

SAS hates success more than anything. 3 years ago Dustin Brown was a well liked player here.

People hate Dustin Brown because he's dirty and LA fans hate him because of his contract, I don't think anyone in the world hates Kopitar for instance.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:27

Furnaceface: Oct 21, 2004

Habibi posted:

Kopitar is still cool. Pretty sure opinion on Brown swung for reasons unrelated to success.

Opinions on Brown swung with the momentum of his elbows.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:27

ThinkTank: Oct 23, 2007

Habibi posted:

Kopitar is still cool. Pretty sure opinion on Brown swung for reasons unrelated to success.

I seriously don't recall people ever liking him. He's been a dirty player since he came into the league.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:27

Luceo: Apr 29, 2003; As predicted in the Bible.

Mind_Taker posted:

People hate Dustin Brown because he's dirty and LA fans hate him because of his contract, I don't think anyone in the world hates Kopitar for instance.

Sharks fan here, and I respect Kopitar. Brown is human garbage.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:28

Rotten Cookies: Nov 11, 2008; gosh! i like both the islanders and the rangers!!! :^)

Furnaceface posted:

People used to say this about Iginla too. Then he signed with Pittsburgh to chase a Cup. Then Boston.

Now we continue to forget that he is throwing his final years away in Colorado.

I never personally thought the same for Iginla because I never really watched the Flames or whatever. And I wouldn't judge an older player for wanting to leave a rebuilding team to chase a cup. It's just that I've seen Ovi play against New York a lot, I see how good he is on a consistent basis, and it's tough to not really respect the guy and wish him well. Just... not against New York.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:30

Habibi: Dec 8, 2004; We have the capability to make San Jose's first Cup Champion.

The Sharks could be that Champion.

ThinkTank posted:

I seriously don't recall people ever liking him. He's been a dirty player since he came into the league.

Has he? I'd never paid too much attention to him until about 2010, but it seemed like he spent several years being significantly more reckless. Last season or two, for instance, I feel like he's gotten a bit better about not being a dirty shitbag.

Furnaceface posted:

Opinions on Brown swung with the momentum of his elbows.

And knees.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:31

Aphrodite: Jun 27, 2006

It's not every player, okay!

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:33

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# ? Apr 25, 2024 05:47

bewbies: Sep 23, 2003; Fun Shoe

Watching Brown's descent into mediocrity has been glorious.

The Kings make me mad because they win the Blues all the time but Kopi and Doughty are two of my very favorite players to watch in the NHL so gently caress them I guess. Also Mike Richards was kind of a dick.

# ? Feb 2, 2015 18:34

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