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This is the observer thread for the War in the Pacific VS Let's Play, being played by Alikchi and Lord Windy. Since they each have their own thread, I've made this one so we can compare and contrast strategies and situations as seen by opposite sides without worrying about spoilers. Links for convenience: Allied Thread (Lord Windy) Japanese Thread (Alikchi)
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Feb 5, 2015 14:09
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| # ? Apr 19, 2024 00:14 |
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I think at the moment what we're seeing is both players being over-ambitious to start and scaling down their short-term operational aspirations. I think it paid off more for Alikchi than it did for Windy at the start, though. I think we'll see Windy back off his Philippine defence hopes entirely, but Alikchi probably got a good scare almost losing his CVL's in a dumb engagement.
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Feb 5, 2015 14:14
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To start off the discussion, from the latest update:Alikchi posted:Philippines Lord Windy posted:Philippines Interesting that the attack wasn't planned, but Windy thought it was, and it worked out as scouting Bataan.
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Feb 5, 2015 14:15
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That does look like authentic war plans, tbh. Mess up and claim it was the plan all along.
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Feb 5, 2015 14:19
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Windy is wildly optimistic with his plans for the Phillipines. It's childs play to interdict any convoys coming in with the IJN and after a month or two he will be out of supplies, especially with the expanded air force and ground troops. Basically nobody tries to take the PI by force as the Japanese it's too easy to just put enough AV on the islands to force the allies back to Clark field/Manilla and leave them there to rot.
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Feb 5, 2015 14:59
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I thought in the early war allied bombers were supposed to be quite resilient to the small calibers used by Japanese planes, is that true over most of the area or is that limited to the older fighters present in China?
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Feb 5, 2015 15:40
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The B-17's are largely immune to 30cal MG fire but the rest arent nearly as tough. Plus Oscar 1-C and up all use exclusively 50cal MG's and the Zero's are using 50cal + (lovely) 20mm cannons.
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Feb 5, 2015 16:22
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So how much longer do you think Windy has before the KB finds his carriers? And man, has he had some terrible luck with what should have been slam-dunk attacks on Japanese TFs.
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Feb 5, 2015 16:41
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I'll be interested in seeing how the carrier battle actually shapes up. Alikchi likes to call himself a gambler, but sending two light carriers against an American fleet carrier was so rash that it was almost worthy of a wartime IJN officer.
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Feb 5, 2015 17:14
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Go allies!
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Feb 5, 2015 17:34
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Zeroisanumber posted:I'll be interested in seeing how the carrier battle actually shapes up. Alikchi likes to call himself a gambler, but sending two light carriers against an American fleet carrier was so rash that it was almost worthy of a wartime IJN officer. Gaishu Isshoku!
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Feb 5, 2015 19:24
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Zeroisanumber posted:I'll be interested in seeing how the carrier battle actually shapes up. Alikchi likes to call himself a gambler, but sending two light carriers against an American fleet carrier was so rash that it was almost worthy of a wartime IJN officer. They are both pretty aggressive, and it seems like it's because of the changes in the mod. Windy has some stronger land forces to play with and has the BB's in PI, but overall is risking his carriers way more than I would have expected given that it's still largely the same game regardless of the mod - Allies losing carriers early pushes back the date at which they can start advancing, Japan losing carriers (from KB) early pushes it forward. Japan gets more carriers to replace losses in this version than others, although I don't think that Windy has posted his CV reinforcement schedule so we can really compare. So far the mod changes seem to have resulted more in psychological shifts than anything. Windy expects to be able to get the BB's out of the PI (or make some use of them) but I doubt that can happen, especially if Alikchi can get a nell/betty base or two up around PI or just keeps camping CVL's in the Sulu Sea. Even with more forces to play with in the PI or DEI the Japanese should be able to roll over it still, provided they focus on it. I think Windy's carriers are going to get away from this one - he was going to pull them to Australia (which is drat lucky).
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Feb 5, 2015 19:30
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Especially since there are TWO fleet carriers in the area. Based on his writing, Alikchi has figured out there might be more than one, but still thinks it's more likely there's only one. I can't wait until the KB catches up with them. Also, we got some homework to do from Windy! Lord Windy posted:Now I have two threads I desperately want to read Personally I think it won't make that big a difference, since lots of things can change in three months, so much that old turns can become quite useless. A better idea, I think, would be for us in the observer thread to periodically compile an "intelligence report" that contains more recent info, some true as well as some false information, give him that, and let him decide whether to follow it and possibly risk everything on a rumor.
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Feb 5, 2015 19:39
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I think he did post the build schedule for the japanese carriers actually, and he starts with 2 more fleet carriers than historical (and a change in size/capability). He gets 10 more fleet carriers + 1* CVL and some CVE. Here's the relevant parts of his posts on the matter: "Anyhow, the Kairyu is the only carrier type we have - apart from the unique Akagi and Kaga and the Junho CVLs We've cranked out six Kairyus already, and more are coming down the pipe at a decent pace."  (That Unryu is an error and will be changed to another Kairyu) *"This does not list ships that I intend to convert to Junho CVLs as part of the Shadow Carrier program, of which there are a few."
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Feb 5, 2015 20:09
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Mikl posted:Personally I think it won't make that big a difference, since lots of things can change in three months, so much that old turns can become quite useless. A better idea, I think, would be for us in the observer thread to periodically compile an "intelligence report" that contains more recent info, some true as well as some false information, give him that, and let him decide whether to follow it and possibly risk everything on a rumor.
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Feb 5, 2015 20:14
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Think we should tell him that Tokyo Bay Fortress is still in Tokyo Bay, or should we leave him wondering if the Japanese have unleashed it upon the Pacific?
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Feb 5, 2015 22:00
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Another option would be to just let him read this thread (with the time delay). It's too bad Grey Hunter didn't do the Japanese side first. Intelligence reports could be a random assortment of images from Alikchi's thread and from the GH version. This could probably be done by people who have the game, too.
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Feb 5, 2015 22:13
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Mikl posted:Personally I think it won't make that big a difference, since lots of things can change in three months, so much that old turns can become quite useless. A better idea, I think, would be for us in the observer thread to periodically compile an "intelligence report" that contains more recent info, some true as well as some false information, give him that, and let him decide whether to follow it and possibly risk everything on a rumor. Seconding this. This sounds like a lot of fun.
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Feb 6, 2015 04:19
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Zeroisanumber posted:I'll be interested in seeing how the carrier battle actually shapes up. Alikchi likes to call himself a gambler, but sending two light carriers against an American fleet carrier was so rash that it was almost worthy of a wartime IJN officer. It'll be a stomp if the KB gets in range, USN carriers are so outclassed at this point of the war by the KB it's not even funny. Some are still flying Buffs's for christs sake and the torpedoes Devastators use have a 50% dud rate. That said I'm playing my second WITP game against Alikchi now and he is a ridiculously aggressive player with his carriers. It pains me sometimes to see where he is happy to commit them.
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Feb 6, 2015 11:24
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Mikl posted:Interesting that the attack wasn't planned, but Windy thought it was, and it worked out as scouting Bataan. I'm absolutely fascinated to see how what they know about each other is going to affect their decision-making. There's a principle of military theory called Magruder's Principle; it states that any deception stands a much greater chance of success if you try to reinforce the enemy's existing beliefs, rather than trying to convince them to believe something completely new. They know a *lot* about how the other thinks and reacts, so there's hella scope to play on that for advantage. This is also a great example of how unintentional deception can be just as effective as any other kind. Windy is inclined to believe that Alikchi is a competent player who doesn't misorder his forces, so he's invented a completely spurious explanation for what Alikchi was presenting as a fairly big blunder. Ain't war grand? (A good example of the principle would be 1944, when the Germans completely bought that D-Day would be at the Pas-de-Calais, to the point where they kept significant covering forces there for months afterward; it was so convincing because it was the obvious place to land and it's what the Germans would have done if they'd changed ends.)
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Feb 6, 2015 21:19
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Saros posted:It'll be a stomp if the KB gets in range, USN carriers are so outclassed at this point of the war by the KB it's not even funny. Some are still flying Buffs's for christs sake and the torpedoes Devastators use have a 50% dud rate. Yeah it's ridiculous, KB can mop the floor with the allies without some land-based air helping well in to '43 in scenario 1. Even with F4F's and Avengers (5/42) the USN has a big disadvantage in range and with the strike coordination penalties levied on them compared to Japan (it isn't until '44 that they equalize). I think the duds on USN air-dropped torpedoes stay for quite a while too. BuORD are a bunch of loving assholes. Successfully taking on the KB requires prior attrition of their awesome pilots, land-based air support to help on CAP (and/or attacks), and likely some lucky sub torpedoes helping equalize the playing field by keeping some of the KB in the repair yard. A shitload of AA and some fast BB's to soak up hits probably helps too - the attack algos will target BB's. The arrival of hellcats (and SBD-5's which have search radar) helps dramatically, but that's after 1.5 years of war.
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Feb 7, 2015 17:48
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It's great to see a PBEM game between two aggressive players who seem to be going at it at about the same level in a ~21st century context~. By that I mean that it's done on a functioning forum, which you can read on a mobile device, has high-quality OPs and posters who explain things and even use maps with arrows and stuff. Instead of copy-pasting whole goddamn combat reports and adding a single line of comments I mean. Long live this LP is what I'm saying!
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Feb 14, 2015 14:57
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The Japanese still seem to have carrier(s) flying A5M Claude, so the Buffs aren't that terrible in comparison. Doing 1 on 1 with carriers at this stage is pretty drat risky for both sides. I am starting to crave some updates though 
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Feb 14, 2015 20:44
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Pimpmust posted:The Japanese still seem to have carrier(s) flying A5M Claude, so the Buffs aren't that terrible in comparison. Doing 1 on 1 with carriers at this stage is pretty drat risky for both sides. I want a post a day and then the spergiest milhist goons doing a goddamn seminar breakdown every day. Too much to ask for, I know 
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Feb 15, 2015 15:04
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If GH can manage to post once a day while running like 5 concurrent LPs I'm sure it's not too much to ask 
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Feb 15, 2015 15:36
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Grey hunter is, uh, special.
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Feb 15, 2015 16:50
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I've been having WITP withdrawal as well, so I went wading into the Matrix games forums to check out their after action reports. This one guy picks up a badly managed Japanese game in late-July 1942 and has to turn it around: http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3549450&mpage=1&key= Game's currently reaching October 1943, crazy surface engagements and ship bombardments, really intense Air War. The player also talks a lot about R & D (he's gonna get rocket-planes in late '44!) and resource management as well as long-term strategic goals. It's a really great read! If anyone knows of any other high quality AAR, let me know!
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Feb 15, 2015 17:51
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Disinterested posted:I want a post a day and then the spergiest milhist goons doing a goddamn seminar breakdown every day. Too much to ask for, I know I'm torn, I like the LP but my game against windy/Alikchi has slowed to a crawl since it started and it's driving me nuts. The delay is LP writing as apparently the game is well into the new year.
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Feb 15, 2015 19:29
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Pimpmust posted:The Japanese still seem to have carrier(s) flying A5M Claude, so the Buffs aren't that terrible in comparison. Doing 1 on 1 with carriers at this stage is pretty drat risky for both sides. That's mostly (probably entirely) the CVL/CVEs, one of the first things I do as the Japanese is strip Zeros out of squadrons that don't need them to upgrade the CVL CAGs. Dunno how it is in the mod, in the normal game you have around 30 spare Zeros and you want around 50-60 for the CVL/CVE flight groups. e: Hopefully we do get some more updates, PBEM games are fantastic and this mod looks kind of nuts. uPen fucked around with this message at 19:40 on Feb 15, 2015 |
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Feb 15, 2015 19:37
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A couple good days in the air for Japan in the Philippines. I think the B-17s are going to be grounded with the hits on the runway, and the ships in port are probably all going down.
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Feb 16, 2015 03:34
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It'll be a miracle if he gets those battleships out.
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Feb 16, 2015 03:38
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Mahler posted:It'll be a miracle if he gets those battleships out. The extra American ships are really just Force Z mk. II, they should have been in Surabaya a week ago. e: Seriously the Phillipines have gone from having Ryujo with a dozen Claudes for air support to having Akagi and Kaga. uPen fucked around with this message at 04:12 on Feb 16, 2015 |
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Feb 16, 2015 04:07
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Where has Windy been? The allies side hasn't seen an update in a while.
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Feb 16, 2015 06:47
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Valentines day. He's back today though so fingers crossed for some updates.
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Feb 16, 2015 10:27
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I'm a little worried about Windy - he seems to be a little strategically and tactically outmatched by Alikchi. However, as I think we'll see in late 1943, quantity has a quality all of its own, and the losses that Windy is taking now are easily replaceable.
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Feb 24, 2015 17:50
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This really is the point in the war where the Japanese should be romping all over the Allies. Windy will smarten up as the US starts churning out warplanes and ships.
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Feb 24, 2015 18:19
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paradigmblue posted:I'm a little worried about Windy - he seems to be a little strategically and tactically outmatched by Alikchi. However, as I think we'll see in late 1943, quantity has a quality all of its own, and the losses that Windy is taking now are easily replaceable. The one AAR I've seen where Japan actually won is below. He seemed to win by just shutting down the US Navy and denying them any strategic initiative. Every time the American tried something he would minimize his losses and sink a CV, or a bunch or cruisers supporting an amphibious assault. Lots of well planned operations to bleed the USN. But by the end the US has dozens of CVEs and CVLs, a bunch of Essex CVs, and are getting hundreds of fighters and bombers monthly. The worst part is that the US 4E bombers with proper sweeps need only one run to total an airfield, which makes defeat almost certain. The only real way the US can lose is loss fatigue, as happened in that AAR, primarily from Kane having air dominance. http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3360598 http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3360598 Velius fucked around with this message at 20:47 on Feb 24, 2015 |
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Feb 24, 2015 18:48
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To be fair the IJN is ridiculously boosted in this mod and the allies dont seem to have gotten very much in the way of extra toys. That said Windy has been making some pretty basic mistakes, especially with the whle whole abandoning Clark field thing and why he is leaving ships hanging out with no aircover within Betty range is something i'll never understand.
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Feb 24, 2015 18:55
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For another example of what an aggressive Japanese player can do, check out this AAR. It's only January 1942, and the Japanese player already has Borneo and Java in the bag, as well as the entire Eastern coast of Australia as far South as Brisbane (moving South of Brisbane triggers additional Australian reinforcements to appear in Aden) and has started a strategic bombing campaign on Sydney and Melbourne, has captured Ceylon, denying the allied player the critical ports of Colombo and Trincomalee, has broken through in Burma and has cut Rangoon off, and has captured Suva and the Somoan Islands, including Pago Pago. To be fair, the AI doesn't evacuate troops as much as the allied player did, but the allied player wasn't necessarily wrong to do so - in none of those areas could the allied player actually have made a stand that would not have wound up with destroyed ground units and ships.
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Feb 24, 2015 19:45
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So Windy has plans on invading the Kuriles and Guam in 1942? Am I the only one that thinks he's biting off a little more than he can chew?
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Feb 26, 2015 08:22
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