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  • Locked thread
Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Chic Trombone posted:

I'm not buying Opop as scum. There's no reason I can think of why a person who's scum would be claiming their night kills openly in the thread as vig kills, and to have their claimed kills include members of both scumteams. The most I could see Opop as is a third party serial killer - which, yeah, needs to go, but if he's committed to killing the scum then I say it's probably of more benefit to us to keep him around, considering we've only gotten two out of who KNOWS how many scum, and then lynch him when the town:scum ratio has evened out a bit

I don't think anyone is saying that Opop is scum at this point. Just because he's hit scum in the past doesn't mean he's going to keep doing that. He can't allow all the scums to die because then he'll immediately get lynched so he'll soon be switching to killing town.

Good Sir posted:

I wasn't looking to bring heat on me.

Or we could just lynch this guy cause that is scummy as hell.

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Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

:dukedog:

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Gabriel Pope posted:

I pushed Byers because he was the scummiest motherfucker that I've ever seen in a game of Mafia (admittedly I have all of 2 complete games and maybe a couple I skimmed as spectator.) I was wrong, but I stand by my case being justified based on what we had to work with.

How is voting for an uncountered doctor claim justifiable?

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~
Yes, I received an Amulet of Mara on N1. I tried to use it on N2 but the action was unsuccessful. I'm basing my assumption that my target was a hider by the flavour (along the lines of looking all over for Skyrim for love but not being able to find it). However, my target didn't claim hider after I said it in thread which is what I'd expect so either they're playing bad or something else happened to block the action. I'll reveal who I targeted N2 if people think it's for the best but right now I think they'd only be confirmed town if they came forward to claim hider before I said who it was.

The whole 'looking for love' thing made me think about the flavour so I did a quick google on the Amulet and found out it was an item that lets you marry an NPC. All I've been told is that I'm unconfirmed masons with Epsilon but based on the flavour I think it's a safe bet we're lovers. For starters, it's all about us eloping and getting hitched but also it wouldn't be the first game where I was in a masonry that turned out to be lovers. I figured the best way to use the item was as a weapon, if I end up dead then at least I get to take a scum down with me. I targeted Epsilon based on the Byers lynch. On D1 he was supporting Byers but as soon as Byers thunderdomed he immediately switched to voting for him just cause it was "anti-town". It was only once the lynch was building that he made a proper alignment call.

Also, Chic playing content game instead of casing looks scummy.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Meinberg posted:

I've been playing really lovely this game, I'll agree.

Are you claiming hider?

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Meinberg posted:

I am indeed.

^^^ Confirmed town

Now be more useful :mad:

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

AXE COP posted:

The way I see it, the possibilities for lynching Opop are:

1) he's an SK, we lynch him and mafia almost certainly win

False. This would put us at 6-2-2. While we won't have many more numbers, the scum teams will need to start going after each other and we still have a good shot of taking the game. Lynching Opop isn't just about going for a SK, it's about trying to keep town's numbers up by lynching someone who is incredibly likely to be non-town.

Alternatively, I would vote Good Sir, Pope or Epsilon but I feel most confident with the Opop lynch.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Glockenapfel posted:

I didn't kill her. Opop did.

Um. What?

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Gabriel Pope posted:

Wouldn't this be suicide if you're lovers now?

Well yeah, I'd rather get to stick around longer but if I'm right about both him and the lovers thing then I'm gonna need to die eventually.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~
Shadowglass and Squid, who do you want to vote for now Meinberg's confirmed town?

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Glockenapfel posted:

How does Meinberg having a hiding ability make him confirmed town?

Fair point. It comes down to setup spec, I suppose. Although I do think if Meinberg was scum he would have jumped on the opportunity to claim hider the first time I put the idea forward.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Meinberg posted:

Okay, I've caught up to today and I have a confession....

I legitimately didn't notice that Sandwolf said that he had a big revelation coming and we should hold off on the hammer.

God DAMNIT Meinberg

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

ShadowGlass posted:

I've asked before, but could you explain how he is confirmed town?

I said I targeted someone on N2 with this marriage masonry but the flavour indicated the person I targeted was a hider. I said that a hider should claim but I didn't say who I targeted so that they couldn't just use my word as proof. Meinberg claimed hider, he was indeed the person I targeted on N2. So unless you're thinking we're scum buddies together we wouldn't have been able to arrange that so it confirms Meinberg as hider. Whether that makes him confirmed town is a different story. Glock's right that a scum hider isn't completely out of the question but it's not a role I've ever seen and I doubt anyone else here has seen it before either.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

ShadowGlass posted:

It's quite possible that there isn't one here either, and you just jumped on it when Rarity made the assumption that there must be a hider.

He wouldn't know I'd targeted him though. If I'd targeted you and he claimed then he'd be outed as scum.

Abyssal Squid posted:

I'm still curious what the boon is all about and I think I've got an idea what it is, would people be willing to let me or Rarity take it?

You can go for it as far as I'm concerned. You've already given me a life of wedded bliss :3:

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Meinberg posted:

Maybe he's an unlimited-shot town vigilante!

How is that (or a town 3-shot vig in fact) in any way balanced?

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

I assume he meant one scum killed somebody last night :confused:

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Epsilon Plus posted:

... okay, that makes sense! Whoops.

It's ok, honeybun. Everyone already knows I'm the brains in this relationship.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Good Sir posted:

So previously out of defense I had mentioned having dreams. And being an Oracle. Last nights were a lot longer and more detailed. They seemed important. I know nothing about the mythos/lore of Skyrim and stuff so here you all go. (Mod has said I'm allowed to quote certain parts directly.)

"Dragons were released from hidden Aldmeri weapons stores."
"We have credible evidence at hidden Aldmeri WMD capabilities."
"WMD = Warehouses of Many Dragons"
"Watch Ulfric start a loving war."
"Don't let the Elven Agenda take your love for Talos!"
"Dragon attacks are a false flag operation."
"General Tulius does it with hagravens."
"Also, this is totally a cult game, y'all. Mehrunes Dagon rising, yo!"

Ok, potentially loony thought. The general discussion thread's been talking about dead players interacting with living players and I've seen the Oracle role being mentioned in relation to that. There's 8 statements here. Yesterday we had 8 dead players. Could these be messages from the people who died before D4?

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Abyssal Squid posted:

Man I was pretty bummed when Opopanax flipped town, but those dreams made everything better. :3:


So it looks like there's only one nightkill now, and town still has an absolute majority. I don't know what Elder Scrools vampires are like (Ecco feel free to chime in!) but I'd guess the vampires are turning people while the werewolves are just mauling, especially since Jorn (EccoRaven's flavor) doesn't have anything to do with vampires in particular, while Skjor (AnonymousNarcotics' flavor) is a straight-up werewolf.

So it seems likely that the cult recruiter is still alive. Four nights plus a recruiter means five cultists if every night was successful. Four scum alive plus two scum dead, minus five cultists means only one starting mafia though, so we know they failed on at least one night (probably both scumteams targeted the same person on Night 2).

Worst case scenario, we go from 5 town 2 werewolf 2 vampire, to 2 town 2 werewolf 3 vampire. I don't think there's any way for town to win from there, and if there's a massclaim I think it's basically a kingmaker situation, with the surviving townies deciding which team wins the vote. Best case, we execute a werewolf and the cult recruiter dies trying to suck off the last surviving werewolf, who kills another vampire, for 5 town 1 werewolf 1 vampire. Basically we're in probably-mylo, and we can't even count on claims to confirm town anymore.

Considering all these things you've said, who do you want to vote for today?

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Glockenapfel posted:

I just think you're making a lot of wild assumptions based on the words of a man who we don't even know is town.

I think it's a safe bet that Good Sir isn't lying. My honeyboo thinks that he might be being coached by a smart scumteam but with all due respect to everyone, at best there's only two people left who would possibly go for that move. Maybe Chic but I only know she's got some experience, I don't know her scum game. And well, I know it's not me :v:

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Glockenapfel posted:

Who is your honeyboo?

I married Epsilon, remember?

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Glockenapfel posted:

Well Exact just confirmed to me that Good Sir is telling the truth about quoting from his PM. Take that for what you will.

Welp, Good Sir is mod-confirmed

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~
Ok yeah, that's better

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Epsilon Plus posted:

Yeah, yeah, Chic has really given you an Honourable Mafia Duel. dummy. You literally did not play to your win condition. There is no reason to never put a single vote, during the entire game, on the player that will make you win!

Why are you giving Glock poo poo for this when Chic did exactly the same thing until RIGHT NOW?

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Rarity posted:

Why are you giving Glock poo poo for this when Chic did exactly the same thing until RIGHT NOW?

Ah wait, I missed the investigation part of the claim. Never mind!

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Epsilon Plus posted:

Let me clarify: based on what I'm thinking the game could be, there's no "cult" - the vampires recruit like a cult, but are still a scum team. They just recruit instead of killing. That would explain why there's only been one nightkill a night - except N2. In most Fire and Ice games each scum team targeting the same person means the kill fails. Maybe both kills and converts fail? Vampires tried to convert whoever werewolves tried to kill and that person lucked out and survived.

In short, if Glockenapfel was recruited by a cult, that cult is also scum. Lunching him would be lunching scum. Am I missing something?

This does seem rather unbalanced all in all. I'd think it would be much easier for cult to win than mafia if that setup's true.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

ShadowGlass posted:

I've tried to track Meinberg, but I couldn't find him. So I guess he is double-confirmed town now. And if I understand what hider does, he can't be targeted with any night action, so he'd be safe from cult recruiters too.

With that said I don't get Meinberg's behavior in this game. If he is completely immune to any action, there was no need to be so cagey and scummy. Shouldn't he have tried to be loud and draw the scum's attention so they'd waste their kills on him? Especially with two scum teams.

Anyway, it doesn't matter now.

You...

You targeted the confirmed hider...

:negative::ughh::negative:

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~
Guys.

Guys!

I think it's massclaim time.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Abyssal Squid posted:

All day I'd figured the vampires tried to convert Meinberg last night, because unless there were only two werewolves to start with, vampires failed twice while werewolves only failed once. So yeah, I think we've got our vampire recruiter here. Definitely think it's massclaim time though.

Also, I'll say it outright, I think the boon for hammering scum is a night of immunity to scum kill/conversion, so I think Meinberg should be the hammer today.

I still have some thoughts I want to get out before we get into lynching. But massclaim first.

I'm plain old VT, my flavour is Hadvar :v:

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

ShadowGlass posted:

He was only confirmed by you, Rarity. And you're pretty high on my "probably scum" list. I didn't push it when you confirmed him, exactly because I knew I could verify it.

So what do you think now that you know I was telling the truth?

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

ShadowGlass posted:

Telling the truth in itself wouldn't clear you. You might do that as scum too, for town cred, since whoever the hider was would have confirmed your story.
However, what we know for sure is that you used your masonry item twice. If we follow standard Maffia rules, then you couldn't have done other night actions (killing, recruiting, whatever) at the same time. This means you're less likely scum, especially since you used it around the same time when Opop was killing them, so there'd be fewer of them to do kills, etc.

I like this answer.

Still annoyed you tracked the hider though :argh:

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

ShadowGlass posted:

While you are here, who is the scum?

I have thoughts but I want to see everyone else's claims first before I put them out there in case something comes up that changes what I'm thinking.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~
While we're waiting on Epsilon I have a question for Chic and Glock. Assuming this is a cult game, what do you think happens to you if you get your opposing target lynched but you've been recruited?

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~
Ok, open question to the thread. What is the best case and worst case scenario for tonight's night actions? Stick with me, i'm going somewhere with this.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~
Cool. Meinberg, if end up lynching town today then can we afford to take out the 3Ps tomorrow?

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Meinberg posted:

It depends on if they're still alive/not recruited.

Do you really think there's any chance a scum team would kill or recruit one of the claimed 3Ps this late in the game?

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~
Ok, final question. This one's for Shadowglass, Good Sir and/or Pope. With the likely best/worst case scenarios for night actions, if we lynch scum tonight what are the chances we can afford to lynch the 3Ps tomorrow?

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Gabriel Pope posted:

Only in the absolute best case scenario, I think. All of these analyses are leaving out the fact that we potentially have a lover pair, though. If both you and EP are town (unlikely, but possible) we could conceivably be out of town players after tonight.

Yeah, us potentially being lovers is pretty much the same deal as what's going on with Chic/Glock. The only differences are that my ability to create a masonry was confirmed by someone else and claimed before today. Which brings me to my point.

Chic and Glock are presenting us with a scenario where we cannot afford to lynch them. Almost ever.

There is nothing more suspicious to me than a late game claim which makes the player impossible to lynch if true. Neither Chic nor Glock breadcrumbed their claim and while this is not exactly surprising, I'm just pointing out we have nothing to prove they are telling the truth but each other's word and a tenuous Oracle link. And to that I ask, where are the dragons? Where is the Elven Agenda? Where is Mehrunes Dagon?

Here's what I think, Chic and Glock saw Good Sir's night results and came up with this claim as a way to ensure they both made it to the end. Chic and Glock are scum buddies.

##vote Chic Trombone (the more experienced player)

If we don't do this then we've probably already lost.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Gabriel Pope posted:

(it's unclear whether Good Sir's dreams were reference N4 or N5 when they say "last night".)

I doubt he was talking about N5 :v:

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Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Gabriel Pope posted:

An interesting theory, but Chic was arguing pretty earnestly in favor of lynching Glock.

But more seriously, my take is that I think Chic was expecting somebody to say 'hang on, that's a bad idea'

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