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Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?

Pinterest Mom posted:

Who do you want to dunk? The last opinion you gave was that you would vote for me, but then you defended me.

I'd like to dunk Narco but I don't think that will happen. I'm pretty sure I'm right though.

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Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?
Well I'm not going to vote Merk.

##vote Pinterest Mom

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?
What? Wasn't Pin -2?

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?

True and Real posted:

I want to lynch Somber, Merk, and AN.

Well I'll take it I guess.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?

Murmur Twin posted:

##vote Merk

stop it stop it stop it.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?

Murmur Twin posted:

Let's get this party started, I guess! Who do you feel is a better vote and why?

I have some information that might help, but before I say anything I want some input. Are we just in a kingmaker situation now? If that's the case then we should no-lunch and try to force the anti-town to target each other.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?

merk posted:

It's Hal/somb/?, but I probably lost us the game.

It might be Hal but I have some doubts.

Wait do you think we're at 4 town and 3 anti town?

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?
Are we sure it's just three scum? I am pretty sure there must be two scum teams and it'd make more sense to have two teams of two players. If we no lunch, the worst case scenario is that we lose two town and then it's two scum A, two scum B, and one town. Best case scenario, each scum kills a scum and then we're at 3/1/1 and this is winnable.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?
Well yeah it's not an ideal situation but I think that it's probably the smart play all things considered.

Okay, assuming four town, two scum, and one serial killer, then the following options are possible if we no lunch.

1. Scum kill town. SK kills town. Two town, two scum, and one serial killer alive.

That seems not actually terrible? We have 40% chance of randomly guessing scum, and if the scum and SK take each other out then that's game.

2. Scum kill SK. SK kills town. Three town, two scum. Lylo.

Again, unfortunate but winnable.

3. Scum kill town, SK kills scum. Three town, one scum, one SK.

Again, a 40% chance of hitting anti-town by pure chance.

4. Scum kill SK, SK kills scum. Four town, one scum.

Two chances here, should be impossible to screw up.


Please correct me if I confused something.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?

Murmur Twin posted:

Also, the whole conversation between merk and Somber sounds phony as hell to me. Instead of setup specs why not discuss what went wrong on the PMom lynch?

Uh because that's an inane conversation and not helpful to us winning.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?

Murmur Twin posted:

That's awesome, but if it's three scum,

(a) we lose, and
(b) it would be scum's best interest to try and trick town into a no-lynch.

Who do you guys think is scum and why?

Why would it be 3 scum? That strikes me as incredibly unlikely.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?
Murmur it sounds like you're just trying to railroad the easiest lunch here. Merk was wrong and he was sure he was right. I don't think that says poo poo about alignment with multiple bad dude teams out there.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?

Murmur Twin posted:

To me reading this exchange, it looks like PMom had the impression from his role PM that there might be two scum factions (and said as such two hours before the interaction with Merk), and then accused Merk of posturing based on the earlier statement regarding two scum factions. Merk's reaction doesn't feel real at all to me. ##vote Merk

This is your case as stated but I think if we're being honest, it's that merk was wrong.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?
I'm admittedly less interested in cases right now and I'm sure merk isn't scum. I'm positive that the best course of action is to no-lunch. Do you have any response to the scenarios I mapped out? I feel like I proved my point.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?

merk posted:

Somb you said you had info?

I don't think it helps in our current state.


Murmur Twin posted:

Your point has been noted, as has my opinion of it (that it's silly to make a move based on guessing what he setup is, as well as dangerous given that the two shadiest players in my opinion are pitching it).

Please answer my last post.

I feel like you're deliberately trying to ignore the logic behind a no-lynch because you can't argue with it. I'm not going to vote merk today.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?
Hi Trill please vote no-lunch today. Also please take your vote off merk.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?

True and Real posted:

Like, here's an example: lmao

we aren't going to NL today. Even if you're right about there being 4 scum, guess what chumparoo? They control the vote between them and if a townie is put up on the block then they will get lynched even if all town members agree to not vote.

So then they all know who each other are and we're likely to have two scum deaths that night, right?

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?
From what I know I'm pretty sure this isn't bog standard mafia, sorry. You're letting your preconceived notions and ego blind you here.

If it's two scum and a serial killer then the no-lunch math still works out and produces mostly winning scenarios.


Somberbrero posted:

Well yeah it's not an ideal situation but I think that it's probably the smart play all things considered.

Okay, assuming four town, two scum, and one serial killer, then the following options are possible if we no lunch.

1. Scum kill town. SK kills town. Two town, two scum, and one serial killer alive.

That seems not actually terrible? We have 40% chance of randomly guessing scum, and if the scum and SK take each other out then that's game.

2. Scum kill SK. SK kills town. Three town, two scum. Lylo.

Again, unfortunate but winnable.

3. Scum kill town, SK kills scum. Three town, one scum, one SK.

Again, a 40% chance of hitting anti-town by pure chance.

4. Scum kill SK, SK kills scum. Four town, one scum.

Two chances here, should be impossible to screw up.


Please correct me if I confused something.

Seriously, look at this and tell me if I missed something because this seems right.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?

AnonymousNarcotics posted:

Wow every time there's a flip I'm like honestly shocked. I have no clue who's scum. I guess I'm still leaning toward merk or somber.

Narco is definitely scum and if you are also scum but not on her team, you should kill her tonight after we do not lunch today.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?

True and Real posted:

Hey town, I know how we can win! Let's remove all of our agency in the game and let the scum dictate the outcome! That can't possibly backfire!

Obviously it could backfire but the worst case scenarios for town after a no-lunch are still playable, whereas a mislunch today could be game.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?
Again, this is not going to be a productive line of conversation, Murmur.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?
I'm annoyed. I had a one-shot investigation and I used it on merk last night. I got to pick whether to investigate for Russian or Corporate. You can guess which one I picked. That's what I meant when I said that I doubted this was as standard an experience as you expected.

Go ahead though. I'd lunch me too. I'm sure it's Narco if the game doesn't end there.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?
I don't understand what you're saying.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?
That doesn't really necessitate that Pin knew about two scum factions. His responses were pretty snipey and dismissive and no one was pushing anything else besides a merk vote. Which, yeah, whoops.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?
Because I thought merk would get lunched and I wanted to be sure it was the right lunch.

Again, I realize this is pointless and I've probably lost us the game. Sucks. Maybe The Breach was actually my bad.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?
Apologies to Byers and everyone else, I played an absolutely terrible game. Normally I love playing scum but I just couldn't get in the right headspace here. Thanks for a fun game!

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?

True and Real posted:

I feel like I was remarkably well natured for me in both games

I was genuinely Mad at Mafia in The Breach, but I haven't read back to see whether it was justified.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?
I felt bad for how poo poo I was playing so I tried to kill lurky players.

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Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?
In my experience people who don't try too hard day one generally maintain that level of effort. That's a generalization but I know that personally I have a lot of trouble playing a game well if I'm not on the ground floor of posting. Content begets content.

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