Gough Suppressant posted:

Matches the leg speed but with none of the decision making or ball skills

Shmoses posted:

Nakia Cockatoo is going to be the best player in the history of football, get around him

Testekill posted:

So is he still the most unfortunate looking player of all time?

Gough Suppressant posted:

Jesus Christ I forgot Ben brown existed and I was happy

Testekill posted:

I wish that someone would pass a message to the commenators that we are missing Wallis, Hunter, Macrae, Stevens, Roughead, Murphy, Boyd, Crameri, Hrovat, Dahlaus and have an average age of 21. Like I'm not trying to be a Richmond supporter here but they're pretty ignorant about how weak of a side we're playing.

Periphery posted:

Hows Caleb Daniel doing? Is he wearing the helmet?

Nutsngum posted:

AFL 9s sucks rear end.

Well, it sucks rear end coming from playing actual local footy. Otherwise Im sure its good and fine.

Basically,
games are way too short (two 15 minute halves)
The turnover rule doesnt reward any kind of defensive play at all
Ball is a floaty light POS that is hard to kick accuratly
Umpires umpire varying rules at their discretion (just like AFL!)
9 is too many players for the field size (50x100metres). 7 is far better from when we had team members not show up.

Ive heard of an AFL7s game that is played someplace or another that fixes basically all these issues but no idea where.

TG-Chrono posted:

Pretty happy with this lineup.

The Deadly Hume posted:

Now is a good time to get your tips in for the first round if you haven't done so.
http://www.footytips.com.au/comps/SASTips&p=goons

I'm going to be an annoying bastard and hype this every day.

FIRST GAME IS ON THURSDAY NIGHT, don't get caught out! You can actually change your tip before each game starts but it's a good idea to the whole lot at once. If you're the forgetful type I suggest filling out a few rounds in advance when you do remember, just so you don't have to cop the away teams rule.

They just made me agree to some new T&Cs so watch out for that when logging in as well.

Now NUMBERRRRS time.

As usual I enjoy throwing shitloads of numbers into the thread. I am loving terrible at fantasy leagues (so many players to keep track of) to the point where I just don't do them, but I enjoy messing around with team ratings.

To start with, my seed ratings, derived from last year's H&A results. First column of numbers is the ratings I generally burp out, second column is the absolute rating. 86.6 was the average score in the home and away rounds last season (2013 was 92), so 866 is the par.

Hopefully it'll be higher this year, but as a result, the numbers look a bit more anaemic than usual. Usually I'd say 1200 or more puts you in the premiership zone, but this time around, that threshold might be closer to 1100. Hawthorn is about 12 goals better than St Kilda.

code:

Haw	 1198 	 332 
Syd	 1161 	 295 
PA	 1095 	 229 
Frem	 1093 	 227 
Geel	  985 	 119 
NM	  970 	 104 
Adel	  966 	 100 
WC	  959 	  93 
Ess	  914 	  48 
Rich	  881 	  15 
Coll	  842 	 -24 
GC	  789  	 -77 
Carl	  768 	 -98 
WB	  677 	-189 
GWS	  632 	-234 
Melb	  608 	-258 
Bris	  591 	-275 
StK	  457 	-409 

As always, there's always a fair heap going during the off-season, so things can get wobbly in the first month. Fortunately after that the ratings start making more sense, but there's a reason why the first round is the toughest for it to track.



Yeah, it's an Excel table. I usually crunch these out using Python which also makes it easy to spit out all those strange graphs. The method I use is ridiculously simple, though - subtract one team's rating from the other, add a "travel" factor of 2 goals if required, and then adjust each team's rating by how much better or worse they did compared with the prediction.

The thing got over 70% last year, usually it gets about 66-67% correct so there must've been something weird about last season. Nevertheless, a savvy tipster will be able to beat it most of the time. I use it as a guide but of course I'll go the other way if I have a good reason to. You know, team ins-and-outs, off-field crap, the sort of thing that is omitted entirely from calculations.

For instance, I am tipping Brisbane over Collingwood, and maybe Port over Fremantle. It actually looks like a tight bunch of games, I mean the biggest predicted result is Sydney over Essendon by 6 goals. Which, if you remember what happened to Sydney in their first round last year, is nothing.

There's other things I'm going to try and implement this year (like having attack-defense ratings which would help me predict total scores as well as margins), but I need a bit of time to work on those. I'll probably start going crazy with the graphs around Round 4 maybe.

Gough Suppressant posted:

apparently asada got as far as establishing that stephen dank intended to administer tb-4, but broke down in proving that it was actually administered due to the complete lack of paperwork provided by any of the parties

The Deadly Hume posted:

"grinding out" and "flat track bullies" are subjective qualities, once you start disregarding certain results because of :airquotes:reasons:airquotes: you get into some murky areas. When one team beats another by 10 goals it doesn't matter if one team gave up or they were just plain bad.

The wikipedia article http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sports_rating_system has a pretty good rundown of the issues with ratings systems, mine has a heap that kind of annoy me but generally it runs pretty close to the odds (it doesn't beat them, mainly because of the bookie's margin) which I'm satisfied with.

Travelling is an easy one to determine and to model for, and when I take that into account it improves results considerably. On the suggestion of people in this thread I went to check if the disparity in rest days had much of an effect and strangely it didn't.

hiddenmovement posted:

That would imply Hird is as competent as Stringer was

EvilElmo posted:

Nah mate. Tainted beef.

Got any evidence of them injecting it?

Stumbletron posted:

cmndstab posted:

Hahahaha, that's the most openly unapologetic apology I've ever seen Good ol' Bristle.

Chairchucker posted:

I've seen a few people saying they're tipping Melbourne over GC, or tipping GC but ONLY because GAJ is back, which seems odd given that a lot of people are tipping GC to be in the 8 at the end of the year, and the team that they're playing against is the Melbourne Demons.

Periphery posted:

I refuse to believe this is the real Melbourne.

Volkerball posted:

that holding the ball call on ablett was bullshit.

Gough Suppressant posted:

Gold coast to kick 12 goals to 1 in the last quarter