Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Locked thread
snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

got him for nothing to replace the exiting leg speed of varcoe and christensen

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

Gough Suppressant posted:

Matches the leg speed but with none of the decision making or ball skills

true, but i also remember when matt white was hopeless so a change of scene might do him good

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

remember 2005 (?) when carlton won the preseason cup then followed it up by winning the wooden spoon in the regular season

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

Shmoses posted:

Nakia Cockatoo is going to be the best player in the history of football, get around him

youre gonna make volkerball depressed

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

things i know/vaguely remember about crowley: he had a tumour in his hip or something years ago that put his career at risk, his missus is far hotter than an ugly bastard like him has any right to pull

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

Testekill posted:

So is he still the most unfortunate looking player of all time?

hes been getting some good competition from ben brown last year

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

Gough Suppressant posted:

Jesus Christ I forgot Ben brown existed and I was happy

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

well this is some real paul roos style attacking

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

bontempelli looks a lot like griffen nows hes put some weight on

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

pickering has no idea what hes on about most of the time. his opinions are about 3-4 years old on most players

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

the commentary box is getting pretty toxic

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

well at least we now know what it looks like playing the dogs without their 3 best mids tearing us a new one like the last few times.

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

Testekill posted:

I wish that someone would pass a message to the commenators that we are missing Wallis, Hunter, Macrae, Stevens, Roughead, Murphy, Boyd, Crameri, Hrovat, Dahlaus and have an average age of 21. Like I'm not trying to be a Richmond supporter here but they're pretty ignorant about how weak of a side we're playing.

theyre pretty ignorant about a lot of things. its uncomfortable to listen to

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

pickering sucks bad

hutchinson sucks bad

pickering and hutchy hating each other in the box manages to suck worse

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

Periphery posted:

Hows Caleb Daniel doing? Is he wearing the helmet?

because he only comes up to knee height for most of the other guys on the field

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

cant wait for the bulldogs to get within striking distance and for the dees to completely lose the plot

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

Nutsngum posted:

AFL 9s sucks rear end.

Well, it sucks rear end coming from playing actual local footy. Otherwise Im sure its good and fine.

Basically,
games are way too short (two 15 minute halves)
The turnover rule doesnt reward any kind of defensive play at all
Ball is a floaty light POS that is hard to kick accuratly
Umpires umpire varying rules at their discretion (just like AFL!)
9 is too many players for the field size (50x100metres). 7 is far better from when we had team members not show up.

Ive heard of an AFL7s game that is played someplace or another that fixes basically all these issues but no idea where.

i agree about the ball. it really holds up in the air as well, you really have to adjust your short kicking style

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

cousins has just been arrested again. ~perthlyfe~

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

TG-Chrono posted:

Pretty happy with this lineup.


if gold coast's jumper actually looked like that it wouldnt be half bad

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

this isnt the best satire site ive seen but this headline made me laugh http://insidesauce.com/tony-abbott-turns-james-hird-advice-clinging-power/

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

The Deadly Hume posted:

Now is a good time to get your tips in for the first round if you haven't done so.
http://www.footytips.com.au/comps/SASTips&p=goons

I'm going to be an annoying bastard and hype this every day.

FIRST GAME IS ON THURSDAY NIGHT, don't get caught out! You can actually change your tip before each game starts but it's a good idea to the whole lot at once. If you're the forgetful type I suggest filling out a few rounds in advance when you do remember, just so you don't have to cop the away teams rule.

They just made me agree to some new T&Cs so watch out for that when logging in as well.

Now :spergin: :spergin: :spergin: NUMBERRRRS :spergin: :spergin: :spergin: time.

As usual I enjoy throwing shitloads of numbers into the thread. I am loving terrible at fantasy leagues (so many players to keep track of) to the point where I just don't do them, but I enjoy messing around with team ratings.

To start with, my seed ratings, derived from last year's H&A results. First column of numbers is the ratings I generally burp out, second column is the absolute rating. 86.6 was the average score in the home and away rounds last season (2013 was 92), so 866 is the par.

Hopefully it'll be higher this year, but as a result, the numbers look a bit more anaemic than usual. Usually I'd say 1200 or more puts you in the premiership zone, but this time around, that threshold might be closer to 1100. Hawthorn is about 12 goals better than St Kilda.
code:
Haw	 1198 	 332 
Syd	 1161 	 295 
PA	 1095 	 229 
Frem	 1093 	 227 
Geel	  985 	 119 
NM	  970 	 104 
Adel	  966 	 100 
WC	  959 	  93 
Ess	  914 	  48 
Rich	  881 	  15 
Coll	  842 	 -24 
GC	  789  	 -77 
Carl	  768 	 -98 
WB	  677 	-189 
GWS	  632 	-234 
Melb	  608 	-258 
Bris	  591 	-275 
StK	  457 	-409 
As always, there's always a fair heap going during the off-season, so things can get wobbly in the first month. Fortunately after that the ratings start making more sense, but there's a reason why the first round is the toughest for it to track.



Yeah, it's an Excel table. I usually crunch these out using Python which also makes it easy to spit out all those strange graphs. The method I use is ridiculously simple, though - subtract one team's rating from the other, add a "travel" factor of 2 goals if required, and then adjust each team's rating by how much better or worse they did compared with the prediction.

The thing got over 70% last year, usually it gets about 66-67% correct so there must've been something weird about last season. Nevertheless, a savvy tipster will be able to beat it most of the time. I use it as a guide but of course I'll go the other way if I have a good reason to. You know, team ins-and-outs, off-field crap, the sort of thing that is omitted entirely from calculations.

For instance, I am tipping Brisbane over Collingwood, and maybe Port over Fremantle. It actually looks like a tight bunch of games, I mean the biggest predicted result is Sydney over Essendon by 6 goals. Which, if you remember what happened to Sydney in their first round last year, is nothing.

There's other things I'm going to try and implement this year (like having attack-defense ratings which would help me predict total scores as well as margins), but I need a bit of time to work on those. I'll probably start going crazy with the graphs around Round 4 maybe.

im looking at building something similar for fun and try to add in some additional weightings to see if form can be predicted. that said, you have west coast and adelaide as ranked higher then richmond and essendon? how does that work? do flat track bullies return higher values then teams who grind it out?

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

Gough Suppressant posted:

apparently asada got as far as establishing that stephen dank intended to administer tb-4, but broke down in proving that it was actually administered due to the complete lack of paperwork provided by any of the parties :allears:

didnt jobe watson actually admit to the media last year that he was administered it?

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

this whole saga has been painful. sack everyone in charge of essendon.

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

The Deadly Hume posted:

"grinding out" and "flat track bullies" are subjective qualities, once you start disregarding certain results because of :airquotes:reasons:airquotes: you get into some murky areas. When one team beats another by 10 goals it doesn't matter if one team gave up or they were just plain bad.

The wikipedia article http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sports_rating_system has a pretty good rundown of the issues with ratings systems, mine has a heap that kind of annoy me but generally it runs pretty close to the odds (it doesn't beat them, mainly because of the bookie's margin) which I'm satisfied with.

Travelling is an easy one to determine and to model for, and when I take that into account it improves results considerably. On the suggestion of people in this thread I went to check if the disparity in rest days had much of an effect and strangely it didn't.

yeah i just suppose theres no additional weighting given for actually winning, and you just go off scores for and against. so if you win small and lose big, even if you win more than you lose you wont have a high ranking, which would probably be why richmond and essendon are lower than west coast and adelaide in this instance?

I wouldn't mind seeing if i could crunch the numbers and work out an additional factor for teams performances at each ground, so that you can narrow down where the ground advantage depending on the sides occurs. pulling the info out of footywire looks like a fair bit of formatting work which is annoying, would be nice if they had an excel exporting function.

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

hiddenmovement posted:

That would imply Hird is as competent as Stringer was

well they both bit off more than they could chew :haw:

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

EvilElmo posted:

Nah mate. Tainted beef.

Got any evidence of them injecting it?

you can take clen orally

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

oh boy 44 new posts, i bet some new and exciting and not at all hopelessly tedious event has unfolded in the world of afl

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

hmm, i just realised that port now has westhoff and ryder in the same lineup. thats almost cheating.

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:


is that rocca and mainwaring in between roos and carey?

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

cmndstab posted:

Hahahaha, that's the most openly unapologetic apology I've ever seen :3: Good ol' Bristle.

i dont know why gays would have a problem with me using a gay slur, they dont even know what theyre talking about

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

Chairchucker posted:

I've seen a few people saying they're tipping Melbourne over GC, or tipping GC but ONLY because GAJ is back, which seems odd given that a lot of people are tipping GC to be in the 8 at the end of the year, and the team that they're playing against is the Melbourne Demons.

i think the dees are better than the $3 betting agencies have them at, but history says the suns will get up. i think it might be a close game though

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

Periphery posted:

I refuse to believe this is the real Melbourne.

the big problem is 20 minutes of this followed by 20 minutes of being hopeless. the gap between the best and worst is the big challenge this year

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

viney on ablett has been a good matchup. viney gives away free kicks but he always tries to hurt whoever he hits

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

Volkerball posted:

that holding the ball call on ablett was bullshit.

its a tricky one. the rule is generally if you take someone on and still get tackled then its holding the ball and most players are held to this regardless of whether they get the ball away or not. the very best players are usually given leniency on this because they can break tackles, but the majority of players are called HTB in this situation.

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

:siren: hogan kicks a goal :siren:

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

brad johnson arguing that gaj can play through a busted shoulder. its round 1 dickhead, he shouldnt play until hes good to play. you dont want to have him play most of the season half speed while hurt and then be incapable of gently caress all towards the end of the season

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

foot skills are killing us atm

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

jek wats pls

e: thats better. always believed in you

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

brayshaw is a good size

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

snaeksikn
Feb 28, 2010

:qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq::qq:

Gough Suppressant posted:

Gold coast to kick 12 goals to 1 in the last quarter

i think youll find hogan will actually kick 5 goals in the last quarter

  • Locked thread