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I have sent an email invite to every single person that's given their address in this thread. I have a tech support question in with HSX but in the meantime you can try this link: http://www.hsx.com/league/join.php?id=3537
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Jul 15, 2015 15:57
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| # ? Apr 26, 2024 00:24 |
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I already applied, I just need to be approved into the league.
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Jul 15, 2015 17:14
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I figured as much, yet the fact remains that
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Jul 15, 2015 17:21
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...huh. That's bizarre.
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Jul 15, 2015 17:27
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yeah there are probably 8 or 10 other people that have applied as well. it's making it hard to keep it interesting 
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Jul 15, 2015 17:33
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Just want to say it's really loving tough getting big gains when your net worth is over $50 mil. I made more than $1m off Sisters today now that the trailer is out, and that gave me a whopping 2 percent gain. Not complaining though! Playing with you guys brings back memories of being 16 and taking risks on movies that did not pay off at loving all (looking at you, Shoot 'Em Up and Talk To Me)
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Jul 16, 2015 03:50
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Hmmm, it looks like the puts for both both pixels and paper towns have sold more than the calls. I can understand not having much faith in pixels (especially at $50) but I think paper towns is being undervalued right now. The main stock had been sitting at $40 for a while when I bought a bunch of them and it's at $70 now.
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Jul 16, 2015 14:12
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Okay, I'm sick of Gigante dominating every week so I sold 8k shares of STAR7 so I have some money to play with. I'm buying the Ant-Man call and the Trainwreck push.
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Jul 16, 2015 17:47
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Efexeye posted:Okay, I'm sick of Gigante dominating every week so I sold 8k shares of STAR7 so I have some money to play with. I'm buying the Ant-Man call and the Trainwreck push. Keep in mind that with a cap of 20,000 anyone with a lower net worth than you (ie. me) will gain a higher percentage when the derivative cashes out (see also: Fisty gaining a higher percentage than I did from the Minions call).
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Jul 17, 2015 01:18
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Trainwreck up 29.01% from when I invested. That's a lot, right? Glad I got 1/2 of my portfolio all up in that.
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Jul 18, 2015 00:56
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Reinvited everyone again, let's see what happens *shrug*
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Jul 19, 2015 23:33
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Oh boy, Pixels has a $0.72 call, $5.32 put, and a 14% rating on Rotten Tomatoes right now. Weirdly, Paper Towns is at $1.35 call, $3.86 put despite it's 78% tomato rating. Does the average hsx player just have a personal vendetta against sentimental teen movies? While it's not as tangible as a sequel, I'd think being based on a John Green book would bring in a good chunk of the Fault in our Stars crowd.
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Jul 23, 2015 05:49
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Sebadoh Gigante posted:Oh boy, Pixels has a $0.72 call, $5.32 put, and a 14% rating on Rotten Tomatoes right now. I have a feeling I'm gonna lose a lot of money on Pixels. And I could have sold my shares at a $45,000 profit a week ago...
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Jul 23, 2015 06:32
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The Minions blockbuster warrant is up. http://www.hsx.com/security/view/MNION.BW $5 a share with a cap of 20,000 shares. A mere $100,000 will buy you one of the most reliable investments available. And remember, the less money you have the more percentage gain you'll make.
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Jul 24, 2015 00:44
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Sebadoh Gigante posted:And remember, the less money you have the more percentage gain you'll make.
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Jul 24, 2015 00:45
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That Minions BW is pure gold. Also the Pixels Put is still trading, get it before it's locked for the weekend!
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Jul 24, 2015 16:43
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Yeah that Pixels put is too good to pass up. I totally flip flopped on that one but I have a sneaking suspicion that it's going to play in Peoria. Also I'm long on The Martian and it's criminally undervalued at $141, I think. I don't know how they will make that boring slog of a textbook interesting for the screen but it's matt damon and they will promote the poo poo out of it.
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Jul 24, 2015 16:53
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Sebadoh Gigante posted:The Minions blockbuster warrant is up. Once again, I've been playing for 8 years and have a net worth of $65m. This is a very difficult game for me. Sold on Pixels about a week ago when it was up to $125m. Was a great move. Lately I'm struggling on effective moves - shorted the Vacation remake opening weekend (5 day openings usually kill demand for the weekend) and that isn't paying off, you'd really think production starting on Resident Evil 6 would launch it higher than $14 a share, clearly John Wick 2 will make more than $20m total... this stock market is weird.
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Jul 25, 2015 18:40
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Mechanical question: If a BW is trading below current box office actual and I buy it, will I get the difference between purchase price and box office when it cashes out? The reason I ask is that there are a couple big BWs (lol) that are significantly below box office right now and the free money seems too good to be true.
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Jul 26, 2015 15:56
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Efexeye posted:Also I'm long on The Martian and it's criminally undervalued at $141, I think. I don't know how they will make that boring slog of a textbook interesting for the screen but it's matt damon and they will promote the poo poo out of it. It's got a lot going for it on paper and it will likely draw comparisons to Interstellar, Gravity, and even Cast Away. However, just because a movie checks all the right boxes doesn't automatically mean it's destined for commercial and/or critical success. If you look at Ridley Scott's recent output you'll see that the last time he directed a movie that grossed over $150 million, the twin towers were still standing. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/people/chart/?view=Director&id=ridleyscott.htm Matt Damon has some high grossing films under his belt, but $140M isn't a sure thing. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/people/chart/?view=Actor&id=mattdamon.htm Don't get me wrong, I actually do hope you're right about this (I picked The Martian in the PHIZ movie league) but I wouldn't be putting all my eggs in the Martian basket just yet. Anyway, you know what I think is undervalued right now? Star Wars. Of course it's already worth a lot of money, but when you consider how Jurassic World made over half a billion in the first four weeks during the summer, imagine how much Star Wars can make in the dead of winter, ie. the James Cameron strategy, something that hasn't been tried yet with Star Wars. Also this is one move where rich folks like you and Crindy actually have an advantage over poorer players since shares are so high already. If you already own stock in Star Wars, just buy more. Terrorist Fistbump posted:Mechanical question: If a BW is trading below current box office actual and I buy it, will I get the difference between purchase price and box office when it cashes out? The reason I ask is that there are a couple big BWs (lol) that are significantly below box office right now and the free money seems too good to be true. Each movie has 12 weeks to meet that goal, but if after some time passes and it seems less likely to meet that goal, you can still bail before the 12 weeks are up and retain whatever profits you've made in the meantime, even if the movie doesn't ultimately earn that much. Just check boxofficemojo periodically if you're not sure. And remember,  EDIT: if I'm understanding this correctly, you'd be guaranteed to make a profit if you bought shares of the Jurassic World warrant now and waited until September when it cashes out, since it's already passed the $550M threshold but the current value of the derivative is still less than the current total gross. $(550 + 26) < $623 http://www.hsx.com/security/view/JURA4.BW http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=jurassicpark4.htm Pomplamoose fucked around with this message at 22:08 on Jul 26, 2015 |
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Jul 26, 2015 21:53
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The Jurassic World BW is precisely what I'm talking about, thanks for the clarification.
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Jul 26, 2015 22:40
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Hey Efexeye, can you just reset the league at the first of the month instead of whatever day it was we started? And Ibexas, are you still in this? From what I can tell you own 0 securities and any gains reported are just from interest on cash held.
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Jul 28, 2015 00:06
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Applied as Labratio77! I used to do this way back, and have completely forgotten my old password, so I'm starting fresh.
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Jul 28, 2015 00:28
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Sebadoh Gigante posted:Hey Efexeye, can you just reset the league at the first of the month instead of whatever day it was we started? I think what I will do is dissolve and re-form the league on the first, and try to re-invite everyone that has asked to be invited. No response from their tech support. boar guy fucked around with this message at 01:14 on Jul 28, 2015 |
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Jul 28, 2015 01:03
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Efexeye posted:I think what I will do is dissolve and re-form the league on the first, and try to re-invite everyone that has asked to be invited. No response from their tech support. I signed up via Facebook, so I'm not sure if you're able to invite me via e-mail. Is there another way?
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Jul 28, 2015 01:05
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I mean I just went to the league page and it still says there are no pending members. Perhaps the Facebook logins are what it doesn't like? I've been a member long enough to have a physical password. Actually, now, when I go in and set the league to public and search for it, nothing comes up. Also, if you send me your HSX username I can try to invite with that, instead of via email, but it's probably the same thing. I'll likely dissolve and re-form the league on the first.
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Jul 28, 2015 01:14
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Efexeye posted:I mean I just went to the league page and it still says there are no pending members. Perhaps the Facebook logins are what it doesn't like? I've been a member long enough to have a physical password. Actually, now, when I go in and set the league to public and search for it, nothing comes up. Cool; the username is in my post a couple of posts up. Looking forward to joining you goons! Hopefully I won't go bankrupt by buying hard into the Vacation movie while I'm waiting.
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Jul 28, 2015 01:16
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The upcoming Linklater movie is blowing up right now. http://www.hsx.com/security/view/TWITA EDIT: 
Pomplamoose fucked around with this message at 04:40 on Jul 28, 2015 |
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Jul 28, 2015 02:11
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jesus gigante i was in the middle of posting this  edit: Okay, so I will remake the league on the first and re-invite everybody here. If you already edited out your email address that means you are in the league already and I'll just reinvite; otherwise, I'll re invite all the email applicants again. Wish this would work, there is some actual interest and as Gigante can attest to, a real prize too!
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Jul 29, 2015 05:15
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 Tell me how crazy I am.
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Jul 29, 2015 16:31
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That is a weird rear end stock 90+% fresh on RT but it's down 4% today? I think it's a lock to do more than 50 this weekend, Vacation looks awful
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Jul 29, 2015 16:44
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MI5 has been all over the place. Most estimates are saying high 30s to 40 but I really feel like anything under 45 would be unlikely. The last two (three, counting Tyrmynytyr) big tentpole action movies have underperformed to tracking expectations (Pixels 24 down from 40-50, Ant-Man 57 down from 60-65, Tyrmyyyyyy 27/42 down from 40/60), and Jurassic World's streak is about done now. Plus, like Southpaw last weekend, MI5 is adult-skewing, and there haven't been any big adult-skewing action movies in a while (Pixels, Ant-Man and Yyyyyyyyyyyy were all somewhat intended for a younger audience). I'd say mid-40s is my expectation with 50-55 not out of the picture. I don't feel strongly about it enough to bet on it either way - I rode the stock from 70 to 170 over its production and sold right before it dipped back down to 140ish - but 40ish would be a big disappointment for Paramount. Especially considering how YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY did.
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Jul 30, 2015 03:34
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The thing with action movies these days is that they're often casting as wide a net as possible for the international market. Tyrmynytyr is a perfect example as it bombed in the US but make a bunch overseas. Aging stars like Arnold and Tom Cruise are a much bigger draw in foreign markets than stateside. Ultimately it makes the domestic earning potential of these big action movies hard to gauge. At least we got one really good international-ish action movie this summer. Terrorist Fistbump posted:
What happens when a shorted derivative cashes out? Pomplamoose fucked around with this message at 05:03 on Jul 30, 2015 |
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Jul 30, 2015 03:54
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Sebadoh Gigante posted:The thing with action movies these days is that they're often casting as wide a net as possible for the international market. Tyrmynytyr is a perfect example as it bombed in the US but make a bunch overseas. Aging stars like Arnold and Tom Cruise are a much bigger draw in foreign markets than stateside. Ultimately it makes the domestic earning potential of these big action movies hard to gauge. Oh, I wouldn't be surprised if MI5 did $130-150m here and still ended up over $600m worldwide. Around-the-world actioners always rake it up in the international market. But tracking all summer hasn't put MI below 50m at worst (it was at 70m in June, down to 55m in July) and I really think the 40s are too low. There hasn't been a non-animated breakout film in 5 or 6 weeks, everything's been performing adequately but not raking it in, so SOMETHING'S gotta pop in the late-summer market, and this has a better chance than Fantastic 4 and U.N.C.L.E., the last two bigger releases of the season. Also, this August looks bad, huh? I picked up Shaun the Sheep because I think it can beat $17m, but if Fantastic 4 underperforms and reviews/word of mouth shake out, I can see Straight Outta Compton being the highest-grossing film of the calendar month when all's said and done. Otherwise: UNCLE's not going to break out like WB wanted even though it looks good/great. If Underdogs and Shaun do better than $50m combined domestic I'd be shocked - it's nice that Lionsgate and Weinstein are dumping their animated foreign pickups in the same two-week span so they're guaranteed to kill each others' profits, but yeesh. Shaun looks good but very kiddie, and Underdogs doesn't even look kiddie. American Ultra could break out, but I see breaking out for that one being $45m or so - it's Lionsgate, after all, if it's not Hunger Games or Divergent they don't know how to sell it. Agent 47 will do between $30-40 domestic in a best-case scenario. And I know nothing about two of the three movies coming out on the last week of August, an historically weak weekend, so they're DOA already.
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Jul 30, 2015 04:07
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Terrorist Fistbump posted:
I agree; Ghost Protocol only made $30m opening weekend, and although that was in December, I don't think that will necessarily translate into more than $55m opening weekend for Rogue Nation.
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Jul 30, 2015 04:46
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Sebadoh Gigante posted:What happens when a shorted derivative cashes out? I think I get (short price) - (cashout value). So if I short an OW at $55 and it cashes out at $40, I make $15. Similarly, Calls and Puts that fail cash out at $0 so I get the short price per share. I can't actually confirm this is how it works, but I'm gaining portfolio value as the price for the shorted MISS5 OW and Call drops so it's a pretty good guess.
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Jul 30, 2015 06:09
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MeinPanzer posted:I agree; Ghost Protocol only made $30m opening weekend, and although that was in December, I don't think that will necessarily translate into more than $55m opening weekend for Rogue Nation. I've seen a lot of people say this, it's not exactly true. Paramount got cold feet when Sherlock Holmes 2 was announced for the same day as MI:4 and did a platform release for Ghost Protocol, so its opening weekends can't really be used as a guideline here. MI:4 was on about 400 large-format and IMAX screens in limited release on the weekend of 12/16 and did $13m, then expanded out to wide release on the 23rd (aka Christmas), where it did the $30m (with a decent chunk of demand burned off from the limited release). It was also one of eight new releases in that time period, so that certainly affected its demand - it was up against Holmes, Tintin, Dragon Tattoo and War Horse, among others. Of course MI:5 could do $36m this weekend and prove me wrong, but the numbers don't seem to point to less than $40m.
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Jul 30, 2015 13:21
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I dissolved the old league and made a new one; I invited everyone I could from the info in the thread and my PMs. Here's the link: http://www.hsx.com/league/view.php?id=3592 Season 3 starts today and will run through August 1. Have fun!
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Aug 1, 2015 19:10
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Looks like I'm going to start off the new league with a loss. M:I5 made 20m yesterday.
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Aug 1, 2015 19:17
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Uh, everything I have took a massive poo poo today except STAR7
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Aug 2, 2015 00:58
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