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Honestly it's pounding in my head that it's Mith but I'm so tangled up now I don't want to gently caress it up I can see it all happening again. This is just gaspy versus anidav round two. I can catch a scum but I can't win a game.
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Jun 30, 2015 02:04
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| # ? Apr 26, 2024 00:20 |
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No gently caress it. There is no way Mith would be alive by now with Beet on the scum team, and her posting has been way off all game. I think this is it. ##vote Mithranderp
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Jun 30, 2015 02:05
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I'm not quite feeling Mith yet. If she is scum here it also means that she might win this game but her entire "never lying" meta is shot. I have some theories based on who will show up alive tomorrow but I'm not sure we're ready for that level of WIFOM yet.
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Jun 30, 2015 02:18
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Birdstrike posted:The rush on Anidav yesterday obviously makes me suss on MaliciousOnion, who may have seen an opportunity to pop in, guarantee Anidav's lynch if perhaps not that quickly, move quickly into the night phase. I know MO has professed to be suss on Anidav the whole game but the vote without discussion looks a little like a last surviving scum trying to take what they can get. I didn't bother giving a reason with my vote because I'd already given a reason earlier. Besides, others have voted without giving reasons. I'm still not convinced of Birdstrike and am a little suss on Gwyn. Mith is a blank, and Gaspy seems town. Gonna re-read the thread and see if anything stands out.
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Jun 30, 2015 03:16
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I guess I'm slightly less suss on Gwyn because there's a fair bit of data there. Argh the rush last night is pinging me though.
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Jun 30, 2015 04:23
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Birdstrike posted:I guess I'm slightly less suss on Gwyn because there's a fair bit of data there. What's the data on Gwyn? I'm happy with anything that removes him from my suspicions.
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Jun 30, 2015 04:26
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Asphyxious posted:What's the data on Gwyn? I'm happy with anything that removes him from my suspicions. Ehh maybe not "data" but at least posts compared to MO and Mith.
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Jun 30, 2015 04:28
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Birdstrike posted:Ehh maybe not "data" but at least posts compared to MO and Mith. Oh right.
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Jun 30, 2015 04:34
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I'm honestly finding you a little hard to follow at the moment birdstrike. Your elimination brings it down to MO but I thought earlier you said it couldn't be MO as "scum wouldn't be lurking" but now you're holding his lurking against him as a scum move?
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Jun 30, 2015 04:44
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That sAid I'm glad you're saying SOMETHING.
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Jun 30, 2015 04:44
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I think it was Anidav who said that scum wouldn't be lurking. On more than one occasion I suggested that scum wouldn't be engaging with the game too much and at no point have I ruled out MO.
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Jun 30, 2015 04:47
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Birdstrike posted:I think it was Anidav who said that scum wouldn't be lurking. Hmm
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Jun 30, 2015 04:50
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Anidav posted:I think Onion is far too lurky to be the last remaining scum. Mithranderp, Gwynplaine or Birdstrike. In my honest opinion, Mithranderp does usually die early and despite having exam commitments essentially over is still posting infrequently. First sentence.
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Jun 30, 2015 04:55
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I went over your posts looking for a SCUM SLIPBirdstrike posted:I can go into more detail on the Beet thing if needed and I actually went back from the hiip/beet wagon theory. I keep saying I think the scum are quiet because in my experience that's how one survives as scum. but it turns out yeah, that's actually what you said. My bad.
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Jun 30, 2015 04:55
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Do you or anyone else who's here have any thoughts on last night's vote?
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Jun 30, 2015 05:10
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Bit of a goof
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Jun 30, 2015 05:18
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Gwynplaine posted:Bit of a goof This really isn't the time for goofs.
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Jun 30, 2015 06:22
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It never is. Gonna try the time tested back to the beginning approach. See if anything becomes clearer.
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Jun 30, 2015 06:31
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I love that there's so much dedicated lurking this game scum can ride it out right to the very end. Top work. Just great.
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Jun 30, 2015 09:24
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Sorry. Wasn't really feeling it. Mith, i guess.
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Jun 30, 2015 09:26
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I too apologise, I haven't had a whole lot of new insights this afternoon.
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Jun 30, 2015 09:28
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 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGj6N7hQjt4
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Jun 30, 2015 09:33
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I'll do one of those little rundowns everyone loves doing and bounce some ideas around, from most scummy to least scummy. Mith: way, way, WAY quieter this game, even after saying she'd be able to contribute more this game. She's done one tiny little effort post compared to her normal analysis. Yes she's been hammering the scum, but only after they were done deals, I could buy that as an attempt to win town points, given "who didn't vote" tends to be where people look first. Also this is VERY doublethink but Mith tends to be very tricksy in her approach whereas this time she's just very standard town. Gwyn: simplest explanation for why I'm still alive, none of his normal big rambling effort posts; could be trying to keep his head down. MO: super lurky Birdstrike: just seems to be playing exactly the same as always, very scattergun and playful, big claims and bold, but underneath it it all rings true. I'm not sure Bird is clever enough to completely mask himself as scum, think he'd have slipped at some point.
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Jun 30, 2015 09:35
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p rude 2 squirrel imo
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Jun 30, 2015 09:40
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I think Birdstrike is INCREDIBLY clever, it's no slight against him that I don't think he can completely mask himself to an extent never seen before in mafia.
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Jun 30, 2015 09:47
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Zetsubou-san is awarded 10 bonus JoJo points* for pointing out one of its abundant musical references! *JoJo points have no in-game value and can only be redeemed for immaterial feelings of fabulousness
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Jun 30, 2015 09:49
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Asphyxious posted:I think Birdstrike is INCREDIBLY clever, it's no slight against him that I don't think he can completely mask himself to an extent never seen before in mafia. hahaha  *squirrel cuddle*
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Jun 30, 2015 09:51
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Soo... I'm not quite sold on Mith but she isn't really helping here.
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Jun 30, 2015 10:37
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I'm almost out of battery on my phone, if you all get a better idea than mith please coordinate around that, I may not be able to move my vote even in the light of new data.
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Jun 30, 2015 10:50
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irl problems are clouding Gwynstinct. I've had too much Camus. ##vote Mithranderp
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Jun 30, 2015 10:52
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I understand the votes but would prefer to talk this through before hammering, or at least hear from the others. It's what Bif would want.
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Jun 30, 2015 10:58
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Oh yeah, mafia is a thing that still exists. I'ma stick with my Birdstrike theory today. Birdstrike or Anidav. Or Gwyn. Or Gaspy anyway ##vote Birdstrike I'm town tho 
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Jun 30, 2015 11:02
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The only other possibility that's occurred to me is that this is some sort of Gaspy masterstroke. The likes of which could play out if him and Beet were team mates. His early deductions and eliminations of the other team members would be the perfect cover, and would remove all suspicion of him, allowing him to remove everyone else until it's just me and him, and then he'd win anyway. Sounds ridiculous when I say it, though. And honestly, if that IS what's happening, I wouldn't wanna interfere with it. It's loving genius.
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Jun 30, 2015 11:03
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Gwynplaine posted:The only other possibility that's occurred to me is that this is some sort of Gaspy masterstroke. The likes of which could play out if him and Beet were team mates. His early deductions and eliminations of the other team members would be the perfect cover, and would remove all suspicion of him, allowing him to remove everyone else until it's just me and him, and then he'd win anyway. It occurred to me too and I don't think it's ridiculous, it's something you have to keep in mind at this stage. I can't really see it though through D2. Maybe in D1 when he seemed to be onto him from the start.
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Jun 30, 2015 11:06
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Mithranderp posted:Oh yeah, mafia is a thing that still exists. Anidav? It's like you want to get lynched 
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Jun 30, 2015 11:08
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I have a theory. Bear with me while i write it up on my phone. Also tomorrow is probably lylo, assuming there's only one scum left.
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Jun 30, 2015 11:14
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I hope this is the best theory ever.
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Jun 30, 2015 11:54
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Birdstrike posted:Anidav? It's like you want to get lynched oh lol yeah I was at a family dinner last night and forgot who got lynched
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Jun 30, 2015 11:55
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First of all, it's important to remember there are no roles. Everyone's vanilla, so scum don't need to worry about cops or other investigators. This is a big plus to the scum, because all they need to do is keep their heads down and not draw attention. Gaspy was on to Beet from day 1 and seemed certain that he was scum, going so far as to vote for him two days in a row, at which point Beet was lynched. Now, if there's no investigative roles, who else could be certain that Beet was scum? Only another scum. I believe Gaspy conspired to set himself up as a pro-town goody two-shoes player from day 1. A bold move, sure, but it worked for me until today. Now it's entirely possible Gaspy just happened to finger Beet as scum but to me it seems to have happened far too quickly. After Beet left, Happy became a lot less focused. This seems like a sensible move for a scum: set yourself up as pro-town early on, then back off and avoid drawing too much attention. As the days progress and the numbers dwindle, this becomes increasingly important. Despite taking a less confronting role, however, Gaspy has still tried to influence the narrative - an odd comment here or there in an attempt to set up others for future lynchings. A clever, gutsy play, and one I fell for at the start; however, I'm pretty confident in this. ##vote Asphyxious
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Jun 30, 2015 11:59
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| # ? Apr 26, 2024 00:20 |
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That's a pretty good theory, I will consider it.
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Jun 30, 2015 12:00
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