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rscott posted:Iceland seemed to do much much better by giving the imf the finger, but perhaps the situations aren't directly comparable. IIRC Iceland was largely private debt not sovereign, and not being in the EU they could default without collapsing the Euro.
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Jun 30, 2015 04:07
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ocrumsprug posted:IIRC Iceland was largely private debt not sovereign, and not being in the EU they could default without collapsing the Euro. There is literally no reason that the Germans couldn't just bail out their banks directly. The cycle of " we give you credit with strings attached to give to your creditors, which happens to be us", ended up costing the ECB a lot more money than if they took proper fiscal policy in 2010.
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Jun 30, 2015 04:31
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One of the reasons there were specific reforms demanded by the creditors was that Noone had any trust anymore for the Greek government. Which isn't entirely unreasonable considering what happened.
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Jun 30, 2015 05:43
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IAMNOTADOCTOR posted:Also take note, the evil banks that provided the loans were deceived by the Greek government on the performance of the Greek economy. Could they have still seen this crisis coming? Possibly, but painting the Greek government as innocent victims in this is far, far from the truth. If the Greek government (and the banks that helped them cook their books to get in the EU and benefit from Germany's credit rating) were so wily and impossibly brilliant that even the world's foremost financial experts who stake their careers and make their living on evaluating risks couldn't see a problem, then how were the Greek citizens supposed to figure it out and why are they responsible for the fraud perpetrated upon them?
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Jun 30, 2015 06:00
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Syriza should've just hardcore played the Putin card from the beginning, introduced the ruble or a directly convertible new drachma rapidly printed in Russian printers, rented out one of its islands for a Russian base, and so on.
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Jun 30, 2015 09:26
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Shibawanko posted:Syriza should've just hardcore played the Putin card from the beginning, introduced the ruble or a directly convertible new drachma rapidly printed in Russian printers, rented out one of its islands for a Russian base, and so on. yes, russia is a rich country with a strong economy and could certainly afford to prop up greece
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Jun 30, 2015 09:29
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And the Greek Prime Minister is delusional http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33322754 quote:Greek PM Alexis Tsipras has threatened to resign over the result of a snap referendum on Greece's debt crisis due on Sunday. This guy is an idiot. If you want the Greek people to have a choice, great but make it between accepting the deal or leaving the Euro. Not this emotional bullshit where a No vote will help negotiate a better deal (it's clear it won't) as well as stay in the Euro and if they vote Yes to the deal he'll resign and hinder the implementation of the deal. There's nothing to be gained by being this wishy-washy at this point and everything to lose.
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Jun 30, 2015 09:36
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Shadoer posted:This guy is an idiot. He ran on a platform of ending austerity, if the electorate now decide they want more austerity after all he should resign rather than implement policies he doesn't agree with. I know that the Troika prefers parties that run on an anti-austerity platform and then when elected do an about face and betray all their promises but I think that isn't how democracy is supposed to work.
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Jun 30, 2015 09:56
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MeLKoR posted:He ran on a platform of ending austerity, if the electorate now decide they want more austerity after all he should resign rather than implement policies he doesn't agree with. I know that the Troika prefers parties that run on an anti-austerity platform and then when elected do an about face and betray all their promises but I think that isn't how democracy is supposed to work.
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Jun 30, 2015 10:01
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MeLKoR posted:He ran on a platform of ending austerity, if the electorate now decide they want more austerity after all he should resign rather than implement policies he doesn't agree with. I know that the Troika prefers parties that run on an anti-austerity platform and then when elected do an about face and betray all their promises but I think that isn't how democracy is supposed to work. Yeah him eventually resigning is understandable. But considering the situation, staying on to implement the program if the greeks vote for it is what a responsible leader should do. Still there's a reasonable case for resigning since he is from the anti-austerity party. The "A No vote will put us in a better negotiating position and we will still stay in the Euro" is complete and utter bullshit. There is no more negotiating at this point, the ECB has made that crystal clear. It's either take the deal, or bringing back the drachma and inflating the poo poo out of it.
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Jun 30, 2015 10:03
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MeLKoR posted:He ran on a platform of ending austerity, if the electorate now decide they want more austerity after all he should resign rather than implement policies he doesn't agree with. I know that the Troika prefers parties that run on an anti-austerity platform and then when elected do an about face and betray all their promises but I think that isn't how democracy is supposed to work. Surely you can see how holding the referendum after the deadline, then resigning, then having a new election before being able to accept the Eurogroup plan, if it's still on the table, isn't doing Greece's economy any favors in the meantime. If any need for a mandate existed after only five months, Syriza should have just held a new election.
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Jun 30, 2015 10:05
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LemonDrizzle posted:Him resigning in the event of a Yes vote would be necessary. The absurdity is Tsipras' claim that a No vote will strengthen Greece's negotiating position rather than see it unceremoniously dumped out of the eurozone. Sinteres posted:Surely you can see how holding the referendum after the deadline, then resigning, then having a new election before being able to accept the Eurogroup plan, if it's still on the table, isn't doing Greece's economy any favors in the meantime. quote:If any need for a mandate existed after only five months, Syriza should have just held a new election. It's pretty laughable that the "recovery" in the last months of 2014 and subsequent fall is being attributed respectively to "austerity working" and "Syriza being elected" when the exact same thing happened in Portugal in more of less the same months and we didn't elect Siriza. That recovery was nothing but circumstantial and if it's true the countries currently being "austered" did show some recovery in a couple of quarters it's also true that their growth was lower than in the rest of the EU in the same periods so how the gently caress does that "recovery" get credited to austerity?
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Jun 30, 2015 10:34
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Holy crap those tweets that Syrza are back at the negotiating table are true. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33325886 quote:Greece debt crisis: 'Last-minute talks after new offer'
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Jun 30, 2015 11:24
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I hope Germany will be willing to destroy the military junta that comes to power after the bolsheviks are chased from Athens. Turkey must be checked, lest their Syria adventures embolden them to strike a weakened Attica.
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Jun 30, 2015 12:03
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Zeitgueist posted:No, my response was pretty clear. You can ascribe the contractions to austerity as well as any expansions, and you're not showing it relative to growth prior to the crash. It's essentially the Estonian Miracle, where if you squint hard enough maybe you can make a lukewarm argument in support of austerity. My views on the austerity that Estonians had to endure after the credit crisis of 2008 have somewhat changed in the past few years. Yes, we got out of a horrible situation without going bankrupt or damaging our reputation, but the cost has been significant. We are a very small country and so many working age people have left already that any small growth we had has screeched to a halt. I can't see it picking up either, because most of out major export markets are in a slump as well, we don't really have anything unique that we produce... At this rate we will never catch up to the richer countries of the EU, and why should we? We haven't really done anything to deserve it.
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Jun 30, 2015 12:19
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OhYeah posted:My views on the austerity that Estonians had to endure after the credit crisis of 2008 have somewhat changed in the past few years. Yes, we got out of a horrible situation without going bankrupt or damaging our reputation, but the cost has been significant. We are a very small country and so many working age people have left already that any small growth we had has screeched to a halt. I can't see it picking up either, because most of out major export markets are in a slump as well, we don't really have anything unique that we produce... At this rate we will never catch up to the richer countries of the EU, and why should we? We haven't really done anything to deserve it. I wouldn't worry too much, the EU will probably end up sacrificing you to appease Putin's massive ego and inferiority complex anyway.
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Jun 30, 2015 12:45
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Zeroisanumber posted:I wouldn't worry too much, the EU will probably end up sacrificing you to appease Putin's massive ego and inferiority complex anyway. Or the US will bail them out, to oppose Putin. A new Marshall Plan, with complimentary US bases and missiles. Either way, Estonia becomes a junior partner, I fear.
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Jun 30, 2015 13:16
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OhYeah posted:My views on the austerity that Estonians had to endure after the credit crisis of 2008 have somewhat changed in the past few years. Yes, we got out of a horrible situation without going bankrupt or damaging our reputation, but the cost has been significant. We are a very small country and so many working age people have left already that any small growth we had has screeched to a halt. I can't see it picking up either, because most of out major export markets are in a slump as well, we don't really have anything unique that we produce... At this rate we will never catch up to the richer countries of the EU, and why should we? We haven't really done anything to deserve it. Just welcome your old new germanic overlords again
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Jun 30, 2015 13:23
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demonicon posted:One of the reasons there were specific reforms demanded by the creditors was that Noone had any trust anymore for the Greek government. Which isn't entirely unreasonable considering what happened. It's not like the Greek government suddenly started being corrupt circa 2007. It's the creditors own drat fault for engaging in risky lending practices for a government everyone knew was cooking the books. The only reason the Greek crisis even exists is because PASOK went public with it.
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Jun 30, 2015 13:51
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Question: other countries in the EU are in it fine without being on the Euro and retaining control of their own currency (i.e. Scandinavia, Poland). Why didn't Greece just do that in the first place? Or I mean, why would it be so bad go go back to that now?
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Jun 30, 2015 15:19
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Question: other countries in the EU are in it fine without being on the Euro and retaining control of their own currency (i.e. Scandinavia, Poland). Well they joined the euro because there's some benefits in terms of promoting trade and making nice with Germany and France, and nobody realized quite how much they were screwing themselves. Now that they're in the euro it would be massively costly for them to leave. All their debts (public AND private) are denominated in euros, their contracts are written in euros, people's bank accounts are in euros. You can't just replace all those euro-denominated liabilities with an equivalent amount of drachma because nobody knows what the drachma will be worth, and besides, what good is drachma to someone living outside of Greece? And what if people try to take all their euros out of the country before the switchover happens, do you just let those assets leave? Leaving the euro would mean defaulting on its debts, shutting down all the ATMs (again), stopping people at the border to check their bags for cash, and generally be really messy. Job Truniht posted:It's not like the Greek government suddenly started being corrupt circa 2007. It's the creditors own drat fault for engaging in risky lending practices for a government everyone knew was cooking the books. The only reason the Greek crisis even exists is because PASOK went public with it. This going back and forth over whose fault it is misses the point, which is that Greece and Germany shouldn't be sharing a currency in the first place. Germany's a big exporter, Greece and the other PIGS are big importers. Sharing a currency meant that Germany's currency was relatively undervalued and Greece's was relatively overvalued. German exporters were making money hand-over-fist, while Greek consumers were paying too much for their imports and Greek workers were losing competitiveness. German banks were lending money to Greece because the alternative was keeping it in the country- where it would've caused inflation and started to rebalance things. Guy DeBorgore fucked around with this message at 16:09 on Jun 30, 2015 |
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Jun 30, 2015 15:59
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Question: other countries in the EU are in it fine without being on the Euro and retaining control of their own currency (i.e. Scandinavia, Poland). Using the Euro probably seemed like it would be handy for an economy where tourism is so big. Not that tourist businesses couldn't have just accepted Euros without being on the Euro.
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Jun 30, 2015 16:34
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What gets me is that if you stop moralizing, all you are left with is the fact that the scheme to get Greece to pay up imploded the Greek economy and made that very thing impossible. Which makes continuing on that course super dumb even if you literally just want the Greeks to pay up even if it kills a million babies.
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Jun 30, 2015 17:36
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It's succeeded at one thing: bailing out the German and French banks who lent Greece the money in the first place. Their debt load is still huge, but now it's mostly owed to the Troika rather than the banks.
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Jun 30, 2015 17:40
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Joining the Euro let them borrow at rates calcuated based on the fact inflating away the problem was impossible. It's the same problem all the weak economies in Europe had; join the Euro and get access to incredible amounts of basically free credit. Then the banks realized they can capitalize on this and expand like crazy to the point they become too big to fail and subsuquently can rely on a bailout, as we saw in 2007-8.
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Jun 30, 2015 17:41
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Yeah but the german and French banks were bailed out with german and French money
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Jun 30, 2015 17:41
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demonicon posted:Yeah but the german and French banks were bailed out with german and French money Right, and thus the inherent moral hazard: the banks or, in particular the leadership of the banks realized that by selling shitloads of credit to the weak economies of Europe and subsuquently expanding, they personally gained in the form of various bonuses, salaries etc while the governments of Europe took the risk. Of course it eventually came crashing down, by that point who cares? They personally got paid, their banks don't die so their shareholders don't get completely hosed and the governments of Europe pay for it. edit: and the other sort of facinating thing is that as soon as one bank starts doing the lending equivalant of crystal meth suddenly the ethical banks can't compete. If you weren't lending to the PIGS like morons in the bubble, why on earth would people choose to bank with or otherwise invest in you? All the crazy banks are expanding and paying out like crazy, what kind of idiot would put their money in the banks left behind? CoolCab fucked around with this message at 17:50 on Jun 30, 2015 |
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Jun 30, 2015 17:46
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demonicon posted:Yeah but the german and French banks were bailed out with german and French money
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Jun 30, 2015 18:05
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A state that doesn't punish tax offenders is problematic. Like just imprison evaders equal to murderers and that poo poo would have been enough to set people into line.
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Jun 30, 2015 18:29
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Zeroisanumber posted:I wouldn't worry too much, the EU will probably end up sacrificing you to appease Putin's massive ego and inferiority complex anyway. Let's be realistic here. The president of the most powerful empire that ever existed in the history of Earth flew to Estonia, right next to the Russian border, and told everyone as long as you are protected by us, you will never lose your freedom. In those exact words. Ain't nobody in Europe that is going to sacrifice us to Russia because their opinion is so irrelevant in this matter that it's hard even to describe. Now, if you meant sacrifice us in *economic* terms... welp.
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Jun 30, 2015 19:06
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OhYeah posted:Let's be realistic here. The president of the most powerful empire that ever existed in the history of Earth flew to Estonia, right next to the Russian border, and told everyone as long as you are protected by us, you will never lose your freedom. In those exact words. lol we're not starting WW3 over Estonia
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Jun 30, 2015 19:12
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Nonsense posted:A state that doesn't punish tax offenders is problematic. Like just imprison evaders equal to murderers and that poo poo would have been enough to set people into line. I agree. Its time to nationalize any company that evades tax by using loopholes.
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Jun 30, 2015 19:14
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demonicon posted:Yeah but the german and French banks were bailed out with german and French money Exactly and how many taxpayers in Germany and France noticed this? Instead they (esp. Bild reading Germans) think they were donating money so Greeks could retire on 45
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Jun 30, 2015 19:33
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go3 posted:lol we're not starting WW3 over Estonia And the Russians would? Russia can get away with Ukraine because Ukraine matters more to them than it does to EU or US. With the Baltic states it's exactly the same way around. You should know that there are US troops and armour in all the Baltic states and more to come this year. What do you think would happen here if a single US soldier died in the hands of a Russian insurgent? Russians are way more scared of the West than vice versa if history is to go by. Ever heard of Able Archer?
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Jun 30, 2015 19:41
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Question: other countries in the EU are in it fine without being on the Euro and retaining control of their own currency (i.e. Scandinavia, Poland). As for why they can't go back now - this is a pretty good overview: https://www.vox.com/2015/6/27/8856297/greece-referendum-euro quote:Greece has been drawing dead this whole time, and the future outlook appears bleak for one simple reason — nobody else in Europe who holds power has any interest in making things anything other than painful for Greece.
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Jun 30, 2015 19:42
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Question: other countries in the EU are in it fine without being on the Euro and retaining control of their own currency (i.e. Scandinavia, Poland). Someone mentioned how Iceland pretty much gave the middle finger to creditors without many problems so lets use that example. When you go this route you actually need to be able to back your currency with an actual economy. Iceland is self sufficient in many important categories, including most food production, but what's even more important is they have an enormous amount of cheap energy which is the lifeline of their economy. They can default and then still borrow money because creditors still believe they will be able to be payed back. Greece is a completely different story. Their economy is in shambles, their industries heavily depend on tourism and importing unfinished goods, and need to import basically all their energy and most their food. Their only real food production is cash crops, good luck surviving on pistachios and olive oil. They have social programs in line with some of the richest countries in their world while their major industries pay almost no tax. Switching to their own currency would be an utter disaster. No one would loan to them for any reasonable rate and the whole economy would probably crash nearly instantly. When people talk about Greece I think they forget about the major differences in structure between Greece and other countries they are trying to compare it to. Austerity is being chosen because the alternative is to just dump buckets of money into the black hole that is the Greece economy. It's called "chasing bad money" and everyone's done with that game.
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Jun 30, 2015 19:45
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Charlie Mopps posted:I agree. Its time to nationalize any company that evades tax by using loopholes. I think the Greeks should innovate in this realm, as they innovated human governance. They may as well, the poor and working-poor will hurt the most.
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Jun 30, 2015 19:48
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go3 posted:lol we're not starting WW3 over Estonia We invaded Iraq on a whim. An invasion of Estonia would present a much more concrete reason to go to war.
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Jun 30, 2015 19:53
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I'm just imagining Leonidas playing Monopoly and he lands on Boardwalk with hotels. He's got a couple of white and pink slips of paper tucked under the board which he begins to count slowly. Eight whole dollars. "This is Sparta," he mumbles quietly as he flips over the property card to get its hock value.
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Jun 30, 2015 19:55
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Kawasaki Nun posted:We invaded Iraq on a whim. An invasion of Estonia would present a much more concrete reason to go to war. Plus in many a year the Americans would have an actual bad guy as an enemy and they would have all the legal and moral justification for a military campaign. If you add the fact that Putin can solidify his domestic position just fine without risking a war with NATO then seeing Russian troops in the Baltics becomes a very slim chance indeed. Almost nothing to gain, and almost everything to lose. But try to explain this to the "international relations and geopolitical strategy experts" on this board, I dare you.
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Jun 30, 2015 20:01
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