CanPol 2015 Eh-lection - The Red Wedding - The Something Awful Forums

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vyelkin: Jan 2, 2011

Canada is holding an election in October! It is currently scheduled to take place on October 19, 2015. We don't yet know when the writ will drop and the election will officially begin, but it is likely that it will be dropped early (potentially as soon as the beginning of August) to allow for a longer election campaign, which favours the Conservative Party because they are the party with the most money and therefore are the best positioned for a longer, more sustained, more expensive campaign. Regardless, the unofficial campaigning has already begun, with party leaders and candidates already making tours through swing ridings, announcing election planks and policies, and, in the case of the Conservatives, literally handing out billions of dollars to swing voters.

Meet the cast:

His Grace King Stephen of the house Harper, First of His Name, Lord of Ottawa, Prime Minister of Canada, and Protector of the Realm. King Stephen is the reigning champion and man to beat. The leader of the Conservative Party, Harper has been Prime Minister for almost ten years and there are signs that the country has grown tired of his rule. A number of his close allies have also left him in recent months, starting with the death of Duke Jim Flaherty of Whitby, Master of Coin, and continuing through the desertions of Sir John Baird of Nepean, Sir James Moore of Coquitlam, and Duke Peter MacKay, Lord of Nova and Warden of the East. Harper looks increasingly isolated and unpopular, never a good position for a ruler going into a fight. But despite all that, he has a solid power base, a core of dedicated supporters who actually vote, and the benefit of a divided opposition, meaning he remains the party leader most likely to end up commanding the most seats on October 20th. Frequently seen accompanied by his loyal friend Sir Pounce.

Archduke Thomas of the house Mulcair, Lord of Outremont, Warden of the French, and Pretender to the Throne. Lord Mulcair has been a steady and professional Leader of the Opposition for the past four years at the head of a New Democratic Party coming off its best-ever federal showing in 2011. Unfortunately for him, no one in Canada cares about who's leader of the opposition until election time. Despite strong showings in polls and positive public approval ratings, he still suffers from a lack of name and face recognition. Some recent polls have the NDP in first place nationally, but their support tends to be concentrated rather than diffuse, meaning that in our first-past-the-post election system even getting the most votes wouldn't necessarily win the NDP the most seats. Importantly, the fact that something like a fifth of voters still don't really know who Mulcair is makes the NDP's numbers volatile: if those voters back Mulcair, he could jump out ahead of the pack. If they back the other candidates, he could fall behind.

Prince Justin of the house Trudeau, Lord of Papineau, Warden of the English and Pretender to the Throne. Lord Trudeau benefits from name and face recognition, and for the first year or two after taking leadership of the Liberal Party he rode so high in the polls that he could have won a majority government outright. Unfortunately, all that big name factor also put a lot of scrutiny on his actual policies and positions, while he used his valuable media platform to repeatedly stick his foot in his mouth and the Conservatives unleashed a ruthless line of attack ads painting him as Just Not Ready to be Prime Minister, several of which you've probably seen or heard recently if you ever consume any Canadian media or go on the internet. The Liberals have recently fallen into third place behind the Conservatives and NDP, but ruling out the Hair Apparent just yet would be a mistake since a lot of Canadians still decide politics based on names alone and Trudeau has that in spades.

The also-rans:

Sir Gilles Duceppe, Formerly Lord of Sainte-Marie and Warden of the French, Pretender to the Throne of Quebec (R) and Sir Jean-Fran�ois Fortin, Lord of Matane and Pretender to the Throne of Quebec (L). Sir Duceppe used to be a big factor in the Canadian political scene, as leader of the sovereigntist Bloc Quebecois that won every election in Quebec from 1993 to 2008. Unfortunately for Duceppe, he was defeated by the dearly departed Sir Jack of the house Layton, Lord of the Danforth and Warden of the Upper Lip, in 2011 and fell from grace. Defeated in his own riding, Duceppe left federal politics but has recently made a comeback to lead the party into the upcoming election after his successor, Mario Beaulieu, managed to gently caress everything up even worse somehow. The Bloc are still polling in single digits though, so it's very unlikely they'll manage to unseat the NDP in Quebec and win more than a handful of seats. Sir Fortin heads Forces et Democratie, which is basically the Bloc but also with some candidates outside Quebec and even lower polling numbers who broke away a couple of years ago thanks to Beaulieu's poor leadership.

Lady Elizabeth May of Saanich, Marquess of the Gulf Islands and Warden of the Unvaccinated. Lady May finally won a seat in the House of Commons last election, giving all the hippie parents out there a feel-good story to tell their friends about. It's likely she will retain her seat, but unlikely the Green Party will win any anywhere else. Voting Green is basically a protest vote for people who think all politicians are just corrupt, man, they're all the same, your vote doesn't make a difference, why should I bother reading their platforms anyway? The party itself is notorious for attracting nutjobs who spend their days tilting at ~~windmills~~ cancer-causing overhead power lines and wifi. Don't vote for them.

The Supporting Cast:

Like any good prestige drama, this one has an endless cast of supporting players who will appear every now and then and play a part in some major event. Will they affect the election, or are they being saved for some greater purpose down the line? Or will they simply fade into the background as a red herring that will never see its plot thread completed? Who the gently caress knows.

Sir Michael �The Mountain� Duffy, ~~Lord of Prince Edward Island~~. Until recently a dedicated servant of House Harper, the Mountain [of Potatoes] has been suspended by the Senate and charged with 31 criminal offences including fraud and bribery relating to $90,000 he received from Harper's then-chief of staff so that Duffy could pay back his housing expenses for (allegedly) fraudulently claiming a residence in PEI. His trial is ongoing and, depending what revelations emerge during the campaign, could play some sort of role in the proceedings.

Sir Pierre �The Hound� Poilievre, Lord of Carleton and Hand of the King. Sir Poilievre is one of House Harper's pledged bannermen and a frequent warrior on the front lines against King Stephen's enemies. His time in the service of House Harper has made him numerous enemies, including labour unions, aboriginals, the Liberal Party, Parliament's security guards, Canada's Chief Electoral Officer, and many others. He is most notable currently as the face of Harper's expanded Universal Child Care Benefit (UCCB), as he has spearheaded a national tour to hand out cheques to Canadian parents in swing ridings, which one recent poll suggested might be bringing a lot of voters back to the Conservative fold.

Lady Rachel Notley of Strathcona, Premier of Alberta and Warden of the West. In May Lady Notley defeated the ruling dynasty of Alberta, most recently led by Sir Jim Prentice, in a stunning underdog victory that gave us all hope for the upcoming crushing defeat for the forces of good. As the new NDP premier of formerly true-blue Alberta, Notley faces a lot of challenges over the next few years. But in relation to the federal election, she primarily serves as a beacon that the NDP doesn't have to be permanent also-rans, and shows that they could win even in the most conservative parts of the country. Whether or not the people of Alberta tie Harper and the federal conservatives to Prentice and the provincial conservatives remains to be seen, but Notley proved the NDP could be a nationally competitive alternative and that could turn out to be important.

Lady Kathleen Wynne of the Don Valley, Premier of Ontario and Warden of Ikantski's Heart. Lady Wynne, on the other hand, could prove to be a weight around the Liberal Party's neck. She won a surprise majority last year, only to promptly alienate a large part of her electorate by privatizing Hydro One. Now beset from both sides, Lady Wynne is deeply unpopular with many parts of Ontario. Again, it remains to be seen if voters' discontent with the Ontario Liberals translates into discontent with the federal party, but Ontario voters traditionally like to vote in different parties provincially and federally.

Sir Dean Del Mastro, Lord of Peterborough. Sir Del Mastro is a loyal servant of House Harper, former Parliamentary Secretary, and one of the Prime Minister's attack dogs. Notorious for his underhanded electoral tactics, Del Mastro was actually charged with violating the Elections Act for overspending in the 2008 federal election, and last month was convicted and sentenced to a month in jail, four months' house arrest, 18 months' probation, and was banned from running in a federal election for five years. The verdict also gave us the honest-to-God sight of a former Conservative insider doing a perp walk. The Del Mastro Affair could go either way�if Harper loses in October, it will be seen as the culmination of a decade of dirty tricks campaigning and underhanded parliamentary rulebreaking that the public finally got fed up with. If Harper wins, it will be seen as yet another sign that no amount of scandal and rulebreaking by his subordinates ever trickles back up to the king himself.

The Battlegrounds:

A number of issues have already come up that will probably play a major role in the election. Expect to see a lot of battles fought over the following issues:

Child care: Mulcair has proposed a new government-run national childcare program, similar to the programs currently run in Quebec and Sweden. Studies show that national childcare, if properly implemented, can be a moneymaking endeavour as it allows more parents to return to the workforce and pay taxes, and can help out poor people and women. On the other hand, the other two parties loudly proclaim that it won't be implemented properly, and they're more in favour of tax breaks and subsidies given directly to parents for use as they see fit. The Conservatives have taken this to the extent of having Pierre Poilievre traveling around the country handing out enlarged Universal Child Care Benefit cheques to people in swing ridings, a campaign that could cost up to $3.5 billion in government money and could be seen as advertising for the Conservative Party, especially since Poilievre has been going to these events wearing party-brand clothing.
The Senate: Harper recently proposed abolishing the Senate, and said that until some kind of reform or abolition is implemented he will no longer appoint senators. This means that as senators retire and aren't replaced, the provinces that lose senators will become increasingly willing to go along with reform proposals that require constitutional change. This is a response to multiple ongoing scandals in the Senate, which is increasingly seen as an unaccountable, irrelevant, expensive, and scandal-ridden government body. Not appointing senators may also be unconstitutional, there's a case making its way through the courts that argues that the Prime Minister must appoint people to fill Senate vacancies. The NDP's policy on the Senate has long been to abolish it, probably because they've never had a senator of their own, while the Liberals' plan so far has been to maintain the Senate mostly as-is but make supposedly non-partisan appointments that would sit independently rather than as part of defined party blocs.
Bill C-51 and National Security: Earlier this year, the House passed Bill C-51, sweeping anti-terrorism legislation, in response to the House of Commons attack last year. It gives significantly expanded powers to Canada's police and spy agencies, including empowering CSIS to fight terrorism with little oversight and making it a crime to advocate or promote terrorist activities in general. Then another bill, C-24, made it so that anyone who has a second nationality or is capable of obtaining a second nationality can have their Canadian citizenship arbitrarily revoked by the Minister of Justice if they are convicted of a terrorism-related crime outside of Canada, like the two Canadian-Egyptian Al Jazeera journalists who were convicted of terror-related crimes by Egypt's military government. The NDP opposed these bills. The Liberals claim to oppose them but voted for C-51 anyway, so who knows what the deal is there.
Taxes: The Conservatives want to cut them. The Liberals want to restore some taxes that existed before Conservative cuts, raise taxes on people making over $200,000 a year, and cut taxes on people making between $45,000 and $215,000 a year, in a way that will give the most benefit to people making between $90,000 and $200,000 a year, as seen here. The NDP want to raise taxes on the wealthy to pay for expanded government programs like national childcare and the restoration of services that have been cut under Harper, while also cutting taxes on small businesses.
Balanced Budget: Harper has been loudly trumpeting the fact that the Conservatives would balance the budget this year. It has been a central part of Conservative Party messaging for the last four years, and in fact they've already started spending the supposed budget surplus, primarily on tax breaks for the wealthy in the form of income-splitting and free money for parents in the form of the increased UCCB. However, it turns out Canada went into recession for the first six months of this year as a result of falling oil prices, and the Parliamentary Budget Officer is predicting a budget deficit this year as a result. The Conservatives have now quietly taken down their balanced budget advertising and stopped talking about it.
Pipelines: Albertans and Conservatives nationwide want to run pipelines across the entire continent to ship dirty tar sand oil all over the country and the world. Environmentalists and the Canadian left want to prevent pipelines from being built in an effort to reduce how much we rely on oil and combat climate change. This was an issue at the recent Premiers' Conference, especially between pro-pipeline Brad Wall of Saskatchewan and anti-pipeline Kathleen Wynne of Ontario, but the federal leaders haven't been talking about it much recently so we don't know if it will be a big issue or not in October.
Climate Change: Tied in to the previous issue is climate change more generally. The Conservatives have a simply abysmal record on it, have been �awarded� numerous �awards� for being the most obstructionist country at a number of climate summits, and have promoted the Alberta Tar Sands, which is literally one of the most carbon-emitting projects on the planet, throughout their entire tenure. They recently promised to reduce carbon emissions to 30% below 2005 levels by 2030, an incredibly unambitious target compared to other developed countries and one we still have no chance of meeting, especially considering we've never met a carbon reduction target ever. The other two parties are in principle opposed to climate change and want to do more environmentally, but both have also repeatedly stated their support for continued tar sands development (Mulcair even wants to run pipelines east-west through Canada to refine oil outside Alberta), so it's entirely possible that no one really wants to talk about this issue for fear that they end up looking bad.
Canadian Unity: One line of attack against the NDP is their support for a �50% +1� referendum result being considered enough for Quebec to separate from Canada. This hasn't really been an issue so far but it's a line of attack for the Liberals especially, who are the party most associated with keeping Quebec in Canada thanks to Trudeau Sr. and Jean Chretien being the two people most affiliated with the No votes in Quebec's 1980 and 1995 sovereignty referendums. I don't think this will turn into an actual election issue since sovereignty appears to be dead in the water in Quebec for the time being, but expect to see Trudeau bring it up at least a few times to see if the attack sticks.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership: America is in the process of agreeing a new Asian free trade deal, the TPP, with a bunch of Pacific nations. Harper badly wants Canada to get in on the deal, but the price that's been set by the US is an end to Canada'a agricultural supply management programs and so far he's been unwilling to agree to that. Essentially, unless they make dramatic changes in very short order, ending supply management and agricultural protection would probably destroy much of Canada's agricultural industry in exchange for lowering prices somewhat on food for consumers. The TPP is being negotiated in secret and may well be agreed in secret as well so it's a big mystery what kind of terrible things we could be signing up for. Broadly speaking, the Conservatives and Liberals are pro-TPP (though not necessarily if the price is an end to supply management) and the NDP are anti-TPP.
Marijuana: The Liberals want to fully legalize it, while the NDP just want to decriminalize it. The Conservatives, meanwhile, have seized on this as a giant oh-won't-someone-please-think-of-the-children stick to beat Trudeau with and run with it heavily in their attack ads. Mulcair, meanwhile, seems to mainly give off the vibe that marijuana is an unimportant issue that takes away from talking about Important Things for Serious Adults.
Veterans Care: Typically, the Conservatives are seen as pro-military and pro-veterans, and the other two parties are seen as unpatriotic flag-burning soldier haters. However, in the last couple of years there have been some incidents where the government has been seen as at best out of touch with veterans needs and at worst actively uncaring. These include things like closing veterans aid locations, ordering people to stop helping veterans navigate government bureaucracy, and sending cheques for $0.01 to the families of dead soldiers. A lot of people are really, really mad at the Conservatives over this.
ISIS: Canadian planes are part of the international mission to bomb ISIS out of the stone age, and it seems like the Conservatives would keep them there as part of the mission for the indeterminate future while the Liberals and NDP would bring them back and end Canada's active military involvement, potentially in favour of a more humanitarian relief role.
Housing Bubble: And finally, this is an issue that probably won't come up but really should. Canada is in the middle of an epic housing bubble driven primarily by the condo markets in Vancouver and Toronto. When it pops, it is going to do a lot of damage to the Canadian economy and whoever is in power at the time might be left holding the bag for that collapse. None of the parties really want to talk about this though, because right now the housing bubble, and rising consumer debt because people can get huge lines of credit on their expensive houses, is the only thing keeping our economy chugging along, and also because rising house prices benefit older people (who vote) and hurt younger people (who don't vote), so they don't want to give the impression that they'll actually do anything to constrain the baby boomers' ticket to the good life.

The setting:

In the October election there will be 338 seats in play, meaning a party will have to win 170 seats to form a majority government. This is up from 308 seats at present. Canadian polling is notoriously bad and unpredictable but there are a few different sites that are aggregating polls to let you know who's currently ahead in the horse race. You can find a few examples at the CBC, at the Star, and at the Globe. Remember too that in our first past the post electoral system, getting the most votes doesn't matter: getting the most riding victories does. This matters because NDP support tends to be more concentrated in big cities, while Conservative and to a lesser extent Liberal support is more diffuse across a number of ridings. In other words, if the NDP and the Conservatives got the exact same number of votes, it is highly likely that the Conservatives would win more seats.

How to follow the election:

Well, aside from this thread, where someone tends to post important breaking news (usually phrased as "why are you guys talking about public transit/poutine/public transit/the Calgary Stampede/public transit when [INSERT IMPORTANT ISSUE HERE] is happening?"), Canada has a few major news sources. On the left-ish side of things, you have the Toronto Star and CBC website. For centre-right-ish things, you have The Globe and Mail, Macleans, and the National Post. If you are a raving lunatic who is convinced that Justin Trudeau and Barack Obama are in cahoots to steal your guns and give them to Muslim Terrorists, there's always the Toronto Sun. Otherwise, keep an eye on Google News and #cdnpoli on Twitter. The iPolitics morning brief is also a good, if lengthy, summary of daily events which you may need to subscribe to get, though Kafka Esq. usually does a good job of reposting them here if there's something particularly interesting.

There are some good journalists/opinion writers out there who cover Canadian politics, and their names are not Eric Grenier. The continuing list of decent Canadian journalists is Chris Selley, Aaron Wherry, Paul Wells, Andrew Coyne, Johns Ibbitson and Ivison (I'm not convinced they're different people), Dan Gardner, Kady O'Malley, and Neil MacDonald. Most good Canadian journalists are pretty leftist (though I'm clearly biased by my own political views), good right-wing journalists are often drowned out by shitheads like Ezra Levant or the entire National Post editorial team, but Andrew Coyne is pretty right-wing and definitely a lot more influential than anyone else on that list, considering he is basically the face of Postmedia News which is one of our largest newsmedia conglomerates.

This thread:

is a place to hang out and be cool people who like to talk about an important election for Canada's present and future. It's not for SA Forums Drama posting slapfights. I don't care how much you hate PT6A/Ikantski/~~Swagger~~Melian Dialogue. Seriously. Nobody cares. They're allowed to have opinions that differ from the thread's left-leaning received wisdom, and Ikantski is allowed to end every post with Wynne delenda est. We're here to talk about dumb Canadian politicians, not dumb Canadian posters.

As always, you can hang out in #diefenbunker on synirc.net and talk about Canadian politics in real time. This is especially useful on actual election nights and probably debates as well, when IRC tends to move much faster than an SA thread.

Credit for the pictures used in this OP goes to lonelywurm, Leofish, and Ikantski.

BONUS NIGHTMARE FUEL

# ? Jul 26, 2015 15:08

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# ? Apr 26, 2024 03:57

Risky Bisquick: Jan 18, 2008; PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.; Buglord

C-24 will likely make an appearance this election season. I'm honestly shocked no opposition candidate mentioned it in a big way.

# ? Jul 26, 2015 15:19

bunnyofdoom: Mar 29, 2008; Jaxxon: Still not the stupidest thing from the expanded universe.

jm20 posted:

C-24 will likely make an appearance this election season. I'm honestly shocked no opposition candidate mentioned it in a big way.

Yes......no comment....

# ? Jul 26, 2015 15:20

Count Roland: Oct 6, 2013

A good OP.

I thought Liberal policy in Iraq was to end airstrikes but increase training for militants? At least I think I heard Trudeau say that.

# ? Jul 26, 2015 15:34

Think: Sep 20, 2005

Count Roland posted:

A good OP.

I thought Liberal policy in Iraq was to end airstrikes but increase training for militants? At least I think I heard Trudeau say that.

They want to send winter jackets to Syria.

Like that'll stop ISIS

# ? Jul 26, 2015 15:42

Mederlock: Jun 23, 2012; You won't recognize Canada when I'm through with it; Grimey Drawer

In over his head

# ? Jul 26, 2015 16:20

cougar cub: Jun 28, 2004

Nice hair though!

# ? Jul 26, 2015 16:34

yellowcar: Feb 14, 2010

Think posted:

They want to send winter jackets to Syria.

Like that'll stop ISIS

Maybe if they're Canada Goose jackets, the other terrorists will make fun of them for being so lame.

# ? Jul 26, 2015 16:52

colonel_korn: May 16, 2003

Reminder that the Eglington-Lawrence Liberal nomination vote is today: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/eve-adams-marco-mendicino-vie-for-liberal-nomination-in-toronto-riding-1.3168149

Warren Kinsella posted:

Ten reasons why E-L Liberals shouldn�t vote for Eve Adams

Her candidacy has enraged Liberals across the country � including veteran, elected Liberals.

The Conservatives were delighted � genuinely and truly delighted � that Trudeau took her after they�d dumped her.

The media have unanimously condemned it � with one senior pundit even saying Trudeau looked �crawlingly demean[ed]� by it all.

She does not have a sterling reputation for candour, or commitment to the Liberal cause.

She was (and still is) a Conservative, and she was always among the most rabid Conservative partisans in the House.

More than any other case, Adams� recruitment by Butts et al. definitively showed Trudeau�s �open nomination� promise to be a farce.

Adams was a long-time Conservative problem. Now she is a long-term Liberal problem.

She has no connection whatsoever to the riding she wants to run in.

Against the rules, I�ve been told memberships have been paid for by Adams� team � and there will be shipped-in chaos at the vote Sunday.

Marco Mendicino is an amazing guy with an amazing C.V. � and Conservatives know they�d lose against him, but they�ll win against Eve Adams.

Unlike a lot of Liberals, I don�t despise Eve Adams (although her fianc� isn�t going to be sending me any Christmas cards this year, apparently). She acted in her own self-interest, and got Justin Trudeau to do exactly what she wanted him to do. She played him.

Bear with me here, but I was listening to The Cure�s �Drowning Man� on the way to work this morning (and bizarrely), it made me think of Eve Adams. She was drowning, too � weighted down by years of bad judgment, and over-the-top Conservative partisanship and serial controversy. And Justin Trudeau � whose decline in the polls commenced with Eve Adams� arrival - didn�t just throw her a life line.

He jumped right into the water with her, and commenced drowning, too.

# ? Jul 26, 2015 16:58

tagesschau: Sep 1, 2006; Guten Abend, meine Damen und Herren.

jm20 posted:

C-24 will likely make an appearance this election season. I'm honestly shocked no opposition candidate mentioned it in a big way.

The increased-requirements-for-citizenship part, or the obviously unconstitutional arbitrary-revocation-of-citizenship-as-long-as-it-doesn't-leave-you-stateless part?

# ? Jul 26, 2015 17:40

Helsing: Aug 23, 2003; DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU JOE BIDEN

Recent polls have the Conservatives edging upward slightly but their ceiling is supposedly quite low and a lot of their core support won't even consider voting for another party. Get ready for the NDP to spend a lot of time talking about "years of LIberal and Conservative" mismanagement and for the Liberals to squawk about how Mulcair will tear the country in half by repealing the clarity act.

Also the OP is really good but if I could suggest a single addition it would be a betting pool on how the Conservatives will cheat this time round. I know we are all resigned about the fact that nobody is ever going to properly investigate what happened with the Robocalls from last time round but given the way Harper is pulling out all the stops to win re-election I can on,y imagine what Nixonian shenanigans he has in store for us this time.

# ? Jul 26, 2015 17:49

Pinterest Mom: Jun 9, 2009

They don't need to cheat, they just rewrote the election laws to allow for a radically increased spending ceiling that they're the only party positioned to take advantage of~

# ? Jul 26, 2015 17:53

BGrifter: Mar 16, 2007; Winner of Something Awful PS5 thread's Posting Excellence Award June 2022

Congratulations!

Great job on the OP. Might be worth mentioning CBC podcasts. Power & Politics isn't entirely awful now that Rosie :swoon:

is in charge. The House can be sorta ok too.

# ? Jul 26, 2015 18:13

Kafka Esq.: Jan 1, 2005; "If you ever even think about calling me anything but 'The Crab' I will go so fucking crab on your ass you won't even see what crab'd your crab" -The Crab(TM)

Heh, Trudeau's Butts.

# ? Jul 26, 2015 18:41

Blood Boils: Dec 27, 2006; Its not an S, on my planet it means QUIPS

*puts on Political robe and hat*

what's up canuckleheads

# ? Jul 26, 2015 18:56

Lain Iwakura: Aug 5, 2004; The body exists only to verify one's own existence.; Taco Defender

We're missing Christy the Clown and Brad Wall.

# ? Jul 26, 2015 19:00

cheese sandwich: Feb 9, 2009

Oh my ~~god~~ Harper that OP. Bravo.

# ? Jul 26, 2015 19:05

Excelzior: Jun 24, 2013

the op logo is missing the ring :colbert:

# ? Jul 26, 2015 19:09

bunnyofdoom: Mar 29, 2008; Jaxxon: Still not the stupidest thing from the expanded universe.

Can we get Earl of Westmount, Garneau, explorer of the unknown?

# ? Jul 26, 2015 19:13

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Great OP

I am looking forward to the new nonsensical ridings this year making a CPC win much easier.

# ? Jul 26, 2015 19:14

Femtosecond: Aug 2, 2003

The craziest thing about this upcoming election is how Harper is trying to get away with not doing debates televised by the main national broadcasters.

# ? Jul 26, 2015 19:15

lonelywurm: Aug 10, 2009

bunnyofdoom posted:

Can we get Earl of Westmount, Garneau, explorer of the unknown?

Only if I can make him a wizard. :colbert:

# ? Jul 26, 2015 19:20

bunnyofdoom: Mar 29, 2008; Jaxxon: Still not the stupidest thing from the expanded universe.

lonelywurm posted:

Only if I can make him a wizard.

Deal!

# ? Jul 26, 2015 19:21

Morroque: Mar 6, 2013

There are a lot of other issues that should be within the election coverage, but aren't considered issues-in-themselves, so they get wrapped up in others. One of the reasons why C-51 probably gets so much flak is the provisions regarding Internet regulation and mass surveillance. The Conservatives already have a pretty bad track record on that with Vic Toews' old "nanny state" Internet bill from years ago that got shot down after a massive public outcry, but there is a lot of that legacy in both legislation and attitude that made it into other laws like C-51. Right now it's only wrapped up in the same continuum as "terrorism" because Steven Blaney/Harper is using the "support this or you're supporting terrorists" option that Vic Toews used as "you're either with us or with the paedophiles" from earlier, which unfortunately is another political issue in itself so it gets mistaken as valid this time around.

I sort of wish Net Neutrality could become an issue in this election. Both the NDP and the Liberals are for it, the NDP more vocally. The Conservatives are still opting for the "Free Market" approach, which has likely contributed to Canada's declining Internet infrastructure due to how monopoly-politics gets in the way of actually maintaining the network, nevermind how computers were actually designed for neutral conditions in the first place. I'd love to see the other parties bash the CPC over it, but they probably won't.

# ? Jul 26, 2015 19:56

ZShakespeare: Jul 20, 2003; The devil can cite Scripture for his purpose!

The write up for the Green Party in the OP just cemented my vote for them. I live in a swing riding too.

# ? Jul 26, 2015 20:08

Jordan7hm: Feb 17, 2011; Lipstick Apathy

quote:

Andrew Coyne is pretty right-wing

I find Coyne a lot harder to categorize than that. He swings pretty left on some issues. Reminds me a lot of Gardner.

I love the OP though.

# ? Jul 26, 2015 20:22

infernal machines: Oct 11, 2012; we monitor many frequencies. we listen always. came a voice, out of the babel of tongues, speaking to us. it played us a mighty dub.

ZShakespeare posted:

The write up for the Green Party in the OP just cemented my vote for them. I live in a swing riding too.

Based on any particular policy, or the local candidate's work, or just cause no, gently caress you dad?

# ? Jul 26, 2015 20:24

Pinterest Mom: Jun 9, 2009

Coyne is a very ideologically pure classical liberal.

# ? Jul 26, 2015 20:26

Lain Iwakura: Aug 5, 2004; The body exists only to verify one's own existence.; Taco Defender

I think that we can all agree on Wente being a plagiaristic, contrarian shithead.

# ? Jul 26, 2015 20:28

Blood Boils: Dec 27, 2006; Its not an S, on my planet it means QUIPS

It is a great Op, but I want to grump about one thing:

"Remember too that in our first past the post electoral system, getting the most votes doesn't matter: getting the most riding victories does. "

And the only way to win a riding is to get the most votes within it. While I'm down with trying new ways of counting votes, a big problem with the reform-the-system crowd (I worked with the bc-stv campaign in 09) is the misunderstanding of how to measure a popular vote. Many people bring up how the tories only won with 40% of the popular vote, which is true, but then they seemingly ignore that this was the largest percentage any of the parties received. The 60% is divided amongst something like 18 parties (yes only 2-3 of which are "serious" contenders) - it is extremely foolish to design arguments/strategy that try to treat this as a hegemonic block of voters. This isn't really a 2 party system, no matter how much yankee pov we absorb.

So the tories did win the most votes - they could not have won the ridings otherwise.

# ? Jul 26, 2015 20:33

ZShakespeare: Jul 20, 2003; The devil can cite Scripture for his purpose!

infernal machines posted:

Based on any particular policy, or the local candidate's work, or just cause no, gently caress you dad?

A little of each. If Kennedy Stewart had the balls to get arrested on the mountain in opposition of corporate kleptocracy I'd definitely have a more favourable view. But yes also to spite the rest of you idiots.

# ? Jul 26, 2015 20:33

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

Nice OP, specially love the green party write up. The greens are really gearing up after the super close election in Victoria last time, I might even do the unthinkable and volunteer with the NDP this time.

# ? Jul 26, 2015 20:55

Hand Knit: Oct 24, 2005; Beer Loses more than a game Sunday ...
We lost our Captain, our Teammate, our Friend Kelly Calabro...
Rest in Peace my friend you will be greatly missed..

I didn't see this posted: Conservatives are making an effort to pack the judiciary with as many sycophantic ideologues as possible and there's also a sideways accusation of outright corruption:

quote:

But while those public conflicts were playing out, the government was quietly transforming the lower courts. The Conservative government has now named about 600 of the 840 full-time federally appointed judges, or nearly three in every four judges on provincial superior courts, appeal courts, the Federal Court and Tax Court.

These are the courts that, at the appeal level, decide how the government�s crime crackdown is to be implemented. At the trial level, they decide high-profile cases like Mr. Khadr�s. In constitutional cases, they rule on what are called social and legislative facts � anything that establishes the real-world context in which a law plays out, such as whether prostitution laws endanger sex workers. Higher courts, including the Supreme Court, do not change these facts, unless they view them as wildly wrong. Constitutional rulings depend on these facts.

The judges, who can serve until they are 75, may be sitting long after other governments have come along and rewritten the laws. They also are a farm team or development system for the Supreme Court. They are Mr. Harper�s enduring legacy.

In the course of this transformation, entire categories of potential candidates, such as criminal defence lawyers, have been neglected; prosecutors and business attorneys have been favoured. So cumbersome is the system of political scrutiny that vacancies hit record-high levels last year. And sometimes, critics say, judges and politicians, even cabinet ministers, have come into close contact in the appointment process, raising questions about neutrality and fairness.

Underlying the appointments issue is a covert culture war over who gets to define Canadian values, Parliament or the courts, and what political party puts the most indelible imprint on the nation�s character.

The rules in the appointments system are few, and all previous governments have used the bench to reward party faithful. But Mr. Harper is the first Prime Minister to be a critic of the Charter, and early on he told Parliament that he wanted to choose judges who would support his crackdown on crime.

# ? Jul 26, 2015 21:11

Heavy neutrino: Sep 16, 2007; You made a fine post for yourself. ...For a casualry, I suppose.

Black Bones posted:

It is a great Op, but I want to grump about one thing:

"Remember too that in our first past the post electoral system, getting the most votes doesn't matter: getting the most riding victories does. "

And the only way to win a riding is to get the most votes within it. While I'm down with trying new ways of counting votes, a big problem with the reform-the-system crowd (I worked with the bc-stv campaign in 09) is the misunderstanding of how to measure a popular vote. Many people bring up how the tories only won with 40% of the popular vote, which is true, but then they seemingly ignore that this was the largest percentage any of the parties received. The 60% is divided amongst something like 18 parties (yes only 2-3 of which are "serious" contenders) - it is extremely foolish to design arguments/strategy that try to treat this as a hegemonic block of voters. This isn't really a 2 party system, no matter how much yankee pov we absorb.

So the tories did win the most votes - they could not have won the ridings otherwise.

What he means is that, assuming three equally populated ridings, winning two ridings with 65-65-40 is less of a result than winning all three with 57-57-56, even though that's exactly the same number of votes if, again, the ridings have equal populations. That's why higher national poll numbers aren't necessarily an indicator of electoral power and it's the very foundation of gerrymandering (create ridings where you win with a slim margin and ridings where your opponents win overwhelmingly).

# ? Jul 26, 2015 21:12

Melian Dialogue: Jan 9, 2015; NOT A RACIST

Hand Knit posted:

I didn't see this posted: Conservatives are making an effort to pack the judiciary with as many sycophantic ideologues as possible and there's also a sideways accusation of outright corruption:

Can you post a source for the article? Its an interesting claim that deserves further looking into

# ? Jul 26, 2015 21:32

lonelywurm: Aug 10, 2009

bunnyofdoom posted:

Deal!

I decided to go understated and tasteful for Marc Garneau, Wizaaaaaard of Spaaaaaaaaace!

# ? Jul 26, 2015 22:24

PittTheElder: Feb 13, 2012; Yes, it's like a lava lamp.

Black Bones posted:

It is a great Op, but I want to grump about one thing:

"Remember too that in our first past the post electoral system, getting the most votes doesn't matter: getting the most riding victories does. "

And the only way to win a riding is to get the most votes within it. While I'm down with trying new ways of counting votes, a big problem with the reform-the-system crowd (I worked with the bc-stv campaign in 09) is the misunderstanding of how to measure a popular vote. Many people bring up how the tories only won with 40% of the popular vote, which is true, but then they seemingly ignore that this was the largest percentage any of the parties received. The 60% is divided amongst something like 18 parties (yes only 2-3 of which are "serious" contenders) - it is extremely foolish to design arguments/strategy that try to treat this as a hegemonic block of voters. This isn't really a 2 party system, no matter how much yankee pov we absorb.

So the tories did win the most votes - they could not have won the ridings otherwise.

The point he's making isn't about the relative merits of FPTP or PR, it's about polling. While all our polls tend to be national, you have to make estimates about vote efficiency to figure out how that actually translates into riding wins, since the supporters of various parties are concentrated to different degrees. That's why Nate Silver has been so successful in aggregating polls in the States: he correctly observed that nationwide polls meant little to nothing, and you just had to look at how each Presidential candidate was polling on a per-state basis, since it's really the States that vote for President. Then you have guys like Eric Grenier, who is trying to the Canadian Nate Silver, but his predictions are poo poo just like every other Canadian polling institute, because you'd need to look at the ridings individually, and the data just isn't there. So while our pollsters do a reasonable job at picking out sea change in the electorate, they do a terrible job of actually calling elections.

# ? Jul 26, 2015 22:28

bunnyofdoom: Mar 29, 2008; Jaxxon: Still not the stupidest thing from the expanded universe.

lonelywurm posted:

I decided to go understated and tasteful for Marc Garneau, Wizaaaaaard of Spaaaaaaaaace!

Excellent. Go in OP?

# ? Jul 26, 2015 22:50

Risky Bisquick: Jan 18, 2008; PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.; Buglord

Hand Knit posted:

I didn't see this posted: Conservatives are making an effort to pack the judiciary with as many sycophantic ideologues as possible and there's also a sideways accusation of outright corruption:

I read the same article, something about Harper's true legacy for the tough on crime agenda.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/stephen-harpers-courts-how-the-judiciary-has-been-remade/article25661306/?service=mobile

# ? Jul 26, 2015 22:53

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# ? Apr 26, 2024 03:57

Morroque: Mar 6, 2013

PittTheElder posted:

... because you'd need to look at the ridings individually, and the data just isn't there. So while our pollsters do a reasonable job at picking out sea change in the electorate, they do a terrible job of actually calling elections.

Should it then be worthwhile that all the polls are saying the centrist party is so small right now be an important thing even in that situation? It would suggest that the gap between right wing and the left wing, now for whatever reason, is no longer bridgeable; that Harper's governance is provoking a stronger reaction against it. Would that at least be a proper reading of the polls right now?

# ? Jul 26, 2015 23:13

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > CanPol 2015 Eh-lection - The Red Wedding

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