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QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012


CapitalistPig posted:

Its not pmom I'm pretty sure.

This post should be a red flag for pretty much everyone.

ljtrigirl posted:

I think I've decided I don't like our LLs.

##vote Lumpen
##vote QPQ


I want to see which feels better.

ljtrigirl posted:

They both feel pretty good.

ljtrigirl, do me a favor and lay out the pros and cons of each lynch in a logical manner. Your play is erratic to an almost unbelievable degree, and I get the sense that you are tunneled. If you want to get fancy, you can use an Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. I always find it useful when tunneled or otherwise unfocused.a

Pinterest Mom posted:

Okay I took a walk near the water and I think I can lay out the argument against killing me or f_v out a bit more clearly.

We know Hiip has unreliable results.
BK wasn't a miller.
f_v isn't a godfather.

So that means one of three things are true
1. Insane cop. I'm town, f_v is scum.
2. Framer. BK was framed, I was framed. I'm town, f_v is town.
3. Framer. BK was framed. I'm scum, f_v is town.

I know 3 isn't true. f_v presumably knows that 1 isn't true if she's town.

We don't have a lot of townies left. Unless we dunk correctly today, I think we're relying on the SK night kills and lj's vigs being used properly to win the game. We can't afford to dunk townies in order to test a theory.

If you dunk me, I'm going to flip town. That rules out option 3. You still won't know if f_v is scum, because either 1 or 2 could still be true. Same with f_v: if she flips town, either 2 or 3 could be true, and I could still be scum or town. Dunking either of us based on an unreliable result doesn't even serve to test which theory is true - it's potentially sacrificing a townie without even telling us more info about what's loving with Hiip's results. What we need are more results from Hiip - if he gets a result on someone else tomorrow, we'll have a better idea of what's going on (say: a scum result on lj tells us insane, a town result on lj tells us framer.) Scum have a lot of targets tonight: lj for her pearl, the cop, the SK, so it's very possible hiip makes it through.

We have to dunk outside of me or f_v. QPQ, Hiip, and lj aren't on the table. I don't want to do Hal, Pig, or SamV (largely because they've all been cautious about immediately voting me, and they're not as scummy as the remaining two people.) That leaves Samfu and Lumpen as people I'd vote.

I really appreciate the attempt to pull out of the lynch, but WIFOM isn't going to work here. While you, assuming you are town, would know that scenario three is false, no one else can verify that information. Thus, it makes no sense for us to operate as though that scenario has been removed. The plea for additional time, further, is just not going to work. More likely than not, the cop's results will be messed with or, worse, he will be killed. Trying to delay on the current situation is a recipe for disaster.

P_Mom's play here reminds me of Ecco's Gaul game, in which a scum player convinced the town to wait one day before lynching an investigated scum. When the town agreed and ended the day, the scum won thanks to the efforts of a third party.

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QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012


I might as well vote.

##vote: PM

I want the cop issue resolved tonight and dislike the idea of leaving an investigated player alive. While it is possible scum tampered with the results, such a scenario would require incredible amounts of luck on the part of the scumteam. My reads on PM are mixed, at best, and the probability of scum!PM seem greater than town!PM.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012


By the by, that puts PM at -2. I don't see anyone, except maybe CPig, as a realistic lynch target today.

I'll be around for most this evening as well as the deadline tomorrow.

Lumpen
Apr 2, 2004

There is no truth beyond magic.

QuoProQuid posted:

If you want to get fancy, you can use an Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. I always find it useful when tunneled or otherwise unfocused.
This is really cool and I've never seen it before. It is definitely my kind of thing. I wonder if CIA analysts actually sit down and make the charts and poo poo. I may have missed my calling in life...

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012


Lumpen posted:

This is really cool and I've never seen it before. It is definitely my kind of thing. I wonder if CIA analysts actually sit down and make the charts and poo poo. I may have missed my calling in life...

It's mainly used as a technique to eliminate bias in intelligence, but yeah, they do.

There's a free download that creates the chart for you and allows you to assign different numerical values to different pieces of evidence.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008





QuoProQuid posted:

I might as well vote.

##vote: PM

I want the cop issue resolved tonight and dislike the idea of leaving an investigated player alive. While it is possible scum tampered with the results, such a scenario would require incredible amounts of luck on the part of the scumteam. My reads on PM are mixed, at best, and the probability of scum!PM seem greater than town!PM.

This is pretty much my feelings on the matter. I've been liking pmom as a lynch pretty much all game and she's the most likely successful lynch target today.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012


QuoProQuid posted:

It's mainly used as a technique to eliminate bias in intelligence, but yeah, they do.

There's a free download that creates the chart for you and allows you to assign different numerical values to different pieces of evidence.

MAFIA EDIT: Just a quick note, though: The purpose of ACH is not to see which hypothesis is the most right but which is the least wrong. Usually you would put in your evidence and eliminate as certain scenarios became increasingly unlikely. After a certain point you are left with one or two probable scenarios that you can then use your discretion to evaluate.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008





##vote pmom

forgot to actually have the vote in the post.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

In a sense, aren't all my posts worth reading?


QuoProQuid posted:

This post should be a red flag for pretty much everyone.



ljtrigirl, do me a favor and lay out the pros and cons of each lynch in a logical manner. Your play is erratic to an almost unbelievable degree, and I get the sense that you are tunneled. If you want to get fancy, you can use an Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. I always find it useful when tunneled or otherwise unfocused.a


I really appreciate the attempt to pull out of the lynch, but WIFOM isn't going to work here. While you, assuming you are town, would know that scenario three is false, no one else can verify that information. Thus, it makes no sense for us to operate as though that scenario has been removed. The plea for additional time, further, is just not going to work. More likely than not, the cop's results will be messed with or, worse, he will be killed. Trying to delay on the current situation is a recipe for disaster.
I think maybe you don't know what WIFOM means?

You guys all know Hiip's results are unreliable. Following them blindly and dunking me is going to lose town the game.

Samfucius
Sep 8, 2010

And if you gaze long enough into a nest, the nest will gaze back into you.


QuoProQuid posted:

It's mainly used as a technique to eliminate bias in intelligence, but yeah, they do.

There's a free download that creates the chart for you and allows you to assign different numerical values to different pieces of evidence.

This is cool as hell.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

In a sense, aren't all my posts worth reading?


(Hiip: you should unvote me - I'm pretty sure the entire scum team is voting me rn)

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008





Sounds like scum trying to shift attention to me.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012


I'm pretty sure PM is scum based on her most recent posts alone. They seem very calculated.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

In a sense, aren't all my posts worth reading?


Of course my posts are calculated. I need an overwhelming majority of town + the sk to vote with me today. If even two town slip away/vote for me, I get dunked. That's not a situation that lends itself to posting from the hip.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

In a sense, aren't all my posts worth reading?


QuoProQuid posted:

I might as well vote.

##vote: PM

I want the cop issue resolved tonight and dislike the idea of leaving an investigated player alive. While it is possible scum tampered with the results, such a scenario would require incredible amounts of luck on the part of the scumteam. My reads on PM are mixed, at best, and the probability of scum!PM seem greater than town!PM.

So, just to be clear: you think it's responsible to dunk me today, this late in the game, with two night kills in play, to test an hypothesis about Hiip's results?

fiery_valkyrie
Mar 26, 2003

I'm proud of you, Bender. Sure, you lost. You lost bad. But the important thing is I beat up someone who hurt my feelings in high school.

Pmom has been trying to wifom out of the cop result all game day. Assuming BK was framed instead of a bus driver to explain the flip is just one example.

##vote Pmom

CapitalistPig
Nov 3, 2005

You turn the corner and see a greenskinned fuckmidget.
Roll for initiative.

Oh well you guys were busy today.

Shouldn't that be the hammer already?

Its not pmom but whatever.

EccoRaven
Aug 15, 2004

there is only one hell:
the one we live in now


FINAL Day 5 Votecount

Pinterest Mom (6): LJ, Hiip, Samfu, -LJ, Lumpen, QPQ, SSV, fv


Samfucius (2): PMom, CPig

Lumpen (1): LJ
QuoProQuid (1): LJ


With 10 alive it took 6 votes to execute.

=======

The town was quiet, as today was a holiday for many of them, but still they managed to do their duty and vote out a murderous scum today.

Or they would have had they voted for someone other than PMom.


Pinterest Mom, Nadège Demaud, Crone (town-aligned vanilla), was executed day 5.

It is now Night 5.
Submit your actions ASAP, maybe we can even get the game up tonight if you guys chop-chop.

EccoRaven
Aug 15, 2004

there is only one hell:
the one we live in now


There is more death tonight than the town had ever seen before. First was LJ, who was brutally stabbed to death during the night, her throat slit and her tongue sawed out. Clearly someone didn't want her to talk and decided to be all ironic-like, which is super gross.

ljtrigirl, Mathys Naufrage, Spearfisher (town-aligned vig enabler), was stabbed to death night 5.

Next was Hiipfire, the town's merchant and would-be investigator. Or was it inquisitor? He had many skills suited for acquiring wealth and power in such a poor backwater, yet his understanding of the human spirit was bent and broken, yet not unworkable. He died as others had on previous nights, in a gross way involving fluids.

Hiipfire, Marc di'Aqcue, Trader (town-aligned insane cop), was poisoned night 5.

Most interestingly of all, however, was Lumpen. He was one of the most vocal townspeople, seemingly against the murderers with all his words and deeds, and yet, inside his home spoke a far darker truth. Papers, torn and bloodied, about his plans on "destroying these pathetic fools" to acquire "his rightful property." "They will pay with their lives if they must, for I am strong and they are weak, and it is written in nature as plain as day: the strong always gorge upon the weak." And yet for all his talk, Lumpen didn't see the harpoon that was lodged in his throat.
Inside his home was a strange magical lock, as light as wood but the dark amber color of Jaharod steel. None of the villagers could recognize it or what it did, but you the reader know, because I am about to tell you.


Lumpen, Dominic "Dom" Laurens, Murderer (mafia-aligned nexus), was speared to death night 5.

It is now Day 6.

With 6 alive it takes 4 votes to execute.
Day 6 deadline: Wednesday, September 9th, ~11PM EDT.


===

DAY SIX CHALLENGE

- A strange VIAL sits on LJ's porch. Type ##grab VIAL to grab vial!
- A beautiful PEARL sits inside LJ's home. Type ##grab PEARL to grab pearl! Have pearl good, but also bad???



===

NOTE:
List of Living Players, in No Particular Order But the Latin Alphabet
CapitalistPig
fiery_valkyrie
Hal Incandenza
QuoProQuid
Samfucius
SirSamVimes

EccoRaven fucked around with this message at Sep 8, 2015 around 09:11

HiipFire
Sep 1, 2013

JENNY DEATH LIVES


im dead yo go town!

fiery_valkyrie
Mar 26, 2003

I'm proud of you, Bender. Sure, you lost. You lost bad. But the important thing is I beat up someone who hurt my feelings in high school.


##grab vial

EccoRaven
Aug 15, 2004

there is only one hell:
the one we live in now


fiery_valkyrie posted:

##grab pearl
##grab vial


you have vial and pearl! hooray?!?!

fiery_valkyrie
Mar 26, 2003

I'm proud of you, Bender. Sure, you lost. You lost bad. But the important thing is I beat up someone who hurt my feelings in high school.

##drop pearl ?

EccoRaven
Aug 15, 2004

there is only one hell:
the one we live in now


The PEARL has been dropped!

Anyone may type ##grab PEARL to grab pearl. I keep telling you it is good but also bad and yet here we are today.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008





##grab pearl

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008





So the cop investigations were legit, just flipped?

EccoRaven
Aug 15, 2004

there is only one hell:
the one we live in now


SirSamVimes posted:

##grab pearl

You have pearl!

*sips sidecar, continues reading*

fiery_valkyrie
Mar 26, 2003

I'm proud of you, Bender. Sure, you lost. You lost bad. But the important thing is I beat up someone who hurt my feelings in high school.

SirSamVimes posted:

So the cop investigations were legit, just flipped?

No. I'm town.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008





This of course means FV is scum.

##vote fallen_valkyrie

##vote fallen_valkyrie


Next person here knows what to do.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012


HiipFire posted:

oh btw the scum is PMom

the fake scum was BK

the town is fiery

(and meinberg didnt cop someone n1 so he's a butt)

##vote: fv

EccoRaven
Aug 15, 2004

there is only one hell:
the one we live in now


A SPECIAL EVENT IS HAPPENING

Due to:
Editing a post to remove critical game content; and
Lumpen talking to his scumbuddies about the game after death after being told explicitly to stop;

I am making a M-M-M-MODKILL.

fiery_valkyrie, Curtis Samon le Faux, Murderer (mafia-aligned assassin), was modkilled day 6.

The day continues.

5 alive, 3 to execute.
Deadline remains the same.
Votecount reset but this is just an administrative thing.


Hooray!

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008





Three to execute eh?

##vote pmom
##vote pmom

Samfucius
Sep 8, 2010

And if you gaze long enough into a nest, the nest will gaze back into you.


##vote qpq

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008





oh wait

##unvote
##unvote
##vote qpq
##vote qpq


fiery_valkyrie
Mar 26, 2003

I'm proud of you, Bender. Sure, you lost. You lost bad. But the important thing is I beat up someone who hurt my feelings in high school.

EccoRaven posted:

A SPECIAL EVENT IS HAPPENING

Due to:
Editing a post to remove critical game content; and
Lumpen talking to his scumbuddies about the game after death after being told explicitly to stop;

I am making a M-M-M-MODKILL.

fiery_valkyrie, Curtis Samon le Faux, Murderer (mafia-aligned assassin), was modkilled day 6.

The day continues.

5 alive, 3 to execute.
Deadline remains the same.
Votecount reset but this is just an administrative thing.


Hooray!

Wait till you all read the scum doc.

EccoRaven
Aug 15, 2004

there is only one hell:
the one we live in now


I like to think I am just and fair.

QuoProQuid, Évaline "Éva" Épaves, Healer (town-aligned doc enabler), was executed day 6.

It is now Night 6.
Submit actions please and thank you.

EccoRaven
Aug 15, 2004

there is only one hell:
the one we live in now


Nobody died night 6.

It is now Day 7.

With 4 alive it takes 3 to execute.
There is no deadline.

George Kansas
Sep 1, 2008

ad astra per proletarii


CapitalistPig
Nov 3, 2005

You turn the corner and see a greenskinned fuckmidget.
Roll for initiative.

##vote samfucius

Mithross gave exakt one of the roleblock items, I roleblocked samfu last night.

gg scum.

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Samfucius
Sep 8, 2010

And if you gaze long enough into a nest, the nest will gaze back into you.


##vote cpig

That sure is some sort of gambit

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