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Come on town, you gots this!
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# ? Sep 5, 2015 11:17 |
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# ? Mar 28, 2024 21:40 |
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Claim cop or forever hold your peace. I'm dropping both votes on PMom soon.
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# ? Sep 5, 2015 14:44 |
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I'm leaning towards pmom too but I'm going to wait until I awaken tomorrow and reread before I vote. Better to not sleep with a vote up this late in the game.
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# ? Sep 5, 2015 15:42 |
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Its not pmom I'm pretty sure.
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# ? Sep 5, 2015 19:21 |
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You shouldn't misdunk me, imo. I'm voting for scum, join me~ ##vote samfu
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# ? Sep 5, 2015 19:30 |
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Samfu is still alive??? How can this be?
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# ? Sep 5, 2015 20:55 |
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Pinterest Mom posted:You shouldn't misdunk me, imo. I'll get behind this ##vote sam
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# ? Sep 5, 2015 20:59 |
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LJ, this post right here is why I'm not scum. Pinterest Mom posted:Nah, I'm making you angry to make vigging me unfeasible. If I'm scum and there's a bus driver, I don't try to convince you to not vig me: I want you to vig me. If I'm scum with Lumpen, I don't care: I know you're getting role blocked. If I'm town, I'm trying to stop you from making a mistake. The post makes sense as scum if I'm not with Lumpen and there's no bus driver, but then you have to explain how Diq ended up with the harpoon.
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# ? Sep 5, 2015 22:17 |
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Pinterest Mom posted:LJ, this post right here is why I'm not scum. That does nothing for me. It felt like you were trying to get me to shoot you against my better judgment so you could swap it. On top of that, you lied earlier when you said you thought I was good for the last two days because that's not at all reflected in your posts.
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# ? Sep 6, 2015 03:39 |
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I didn't lie at all. I don't make that post if I think you're scum, and that was two game days ago.
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# ? Sep 6, 2015 03:40 |
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Blech. I'm starting to think that Hiip is insane and we should lynch fv. PMom- convince me to lynch outside of you/fv/Hiip today.
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# ? Sep 6, 2015 03:46 |
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Like, I just ISOed PMom and that actually does kind of match up (thinking I was good for the last two days), even though I super didn't remember it that way.
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# ? Sep 6, 2015 03:46 |
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I just don't know why you're told to assume you're sane if you are. Is that a common thing here? I'd probably lynch Lumpen today.
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# ? Sep 6, 2015 03:47 |
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We're not killing Hiip. His cop claim is credible and lines up with his behaviour, and a scum fakeclaiming doesn't undermine his own claim with the scum result on BK. FV I'm not sure about, I haven't reread her. I'm on mobile all weekend so it's hard :-/. I'm pretty confident that Sam flips scum. He's been very sketchy all game. (And, on a pure numbers level, if you, Hiip, and QPQ are town, there are probably ~3 scum + 1 sk out of Sam/Sam/Lumpen/Pig/FV/Hal. That's good odds.)
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# ? Sep 6, 2015 03:52 |
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Killing f_v means we're all in on "insane cop", but framer is just as plausible a theory. I'm not sure that's wise. We'd need to believe that fv's posting has been scummy (I don't think she's been cased?) and that BK was an unlikely frame target N2.
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# ? Sep 6, 2015 03:58 |
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Okay I took a walk near the water and I think I can lay out the argument against killing me or f_v out a bit more clearly. We know Hiip has unreliable results. BK wasn't a miller. f_v isn't a godfather. So that means one of three things are true 1. Insane cop. I'm town, f_v is scum. 2. Framer. BK was framed, I was framed. I'm town, f_v is town. 3. Framer. BK was framed. I'm scum, f_v is town. I know 3 isn't true. f_v presumably knows that 1 isn't true if she's town. We don't have a lot of townies left. Unless we dunk correctly today, I think we're relying on the SK night kills and lj's vigs being used properly to win the game. We can't afford to dunk townies in order to test a theory. If you dunk me, I'm going to flip town. That rules out option 3. You still won't know if f_v is scum, because either 1 or 2 could still be true. Same with f_v: if she flips town, either 2 or 3 could be true, and I could still be scum or town. Dunking either of us based on an unreliable result doesn't even serve to test which theory is true - it's potentially sacrificing a townie without even telling us more info about what's loving with Hiip's results. What we need are more results from Hiip - if he gets a result on someone else tomorrow, we'll have a better idea of what's going on (say: a scum result on lj tells us insane, a town result on lj tells us framer.) Scum have a lot of targets tonight: lj for her pearl, the cop, the SK, so it's very possible hiip makes it through. We have to dunk outside of me or f_v. QPQ, Hiip, and lj aren't on the table. I don't want to do Hal, Pig, or SamV (largely because they've all been cautious about immediately voting me, and they're not as scummy as the remaining two people.) That leaves Samfu and Lumpen as people I'd vote.
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# ? Sep 6, 2015 07:53 |
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I'm at the lake visiting family this weekend, so limited access. ##vote Pinterest Mom PM has spun WIFOM hard, but the evidence, patterns, and connections are there to support the investigation result. With a Scum investigation, it would be really dumb to flip anyone else today. If PMom as Scum talks his way out of the noose and wins the game after getting a Scum result on him, mad props. I'm not falling for it.
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# ? Sep 6, 2015 14:15 |
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Lumpen posted:I'm at the lake visiting family this weekend, so limited access. Tell me about the scum result on BK. What do you think it means?
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# ? Sep 6, 2015 14:39 |
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(I only ask because your entire contribution today has been to draw spurious connections between unflipped players, and you seem completely uninterested or unconcerned about Hiip's result.)
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# ? Sep 6, 2015 14:47 |
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Spin your own WIFOM, PMom. What scenario would we need to accept as likely in order to dismiss a Scum investigation on Scummy player, from a believable uncounterclaimed Ckp that Ecco said was Sane in his PM? That's a stretch. I'll humor you, though. It stands to reason the BK was Framed. But unfortunately for you, that doesn't get you off the hook, and here's why: Assuming BK got Framed, the logical Frame target last night would have been me. Rarity already said she was going to use the Pearl power to investgate with, and she had telegraphed her target as me, and I expect I probably was the actual Frame target last night, but the Cop checked you instead. Given the evidence we now have,Rarity probably got killed by the SK rather than the Scum, because the Scum would have Framed me and left her alive to doublevote me on a false result. There's no reasonable likelihood that PMom would be the target of a Frame last night. The Cop result is a fair catch. Caught Scum will grasp at any straws to sow doubt. You've played a Scum game for 78 pages. I'm confident you'll flip Scum. You're trying hard, though and I respect you for that.
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# ? Sep 6, 2015 15:21 |
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Well, here's the thing: You weren't the frame target because you're scum.
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# ? Sep 6, 2015 15:56 |
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Day 4 Votecount Pinterest Mom (3): LJ, Hiip, Samfu, -LJ, Lumpen Samfucius (2): PMom, CPig With 10 alive it takes 6 votes to execute. Day 5 deadline: Monday, September 7th, ~11PM EDT. NOTE: I recognize this is a holiday for Americans. If Monday rolls around and it looks like not enough people are around then I'll extend the deadline by 24 hours.
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# ? Sep 6, 2015 21:52 |
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I think I've decided I don't like our LLs. ##vote Lumpen ##vote QPQ I want to see which feels better.
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# ? Sep 6, 2015 22:06 |
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They both feel pretty good.
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# ? Sep 6, 2015 22:07 |
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I just reread QPQ and I still think he's a really bad vote. His case on you was good, and I feel he's followed about the same path and reasoning on you as I did. "Lumpen calls him town" isn't a good enough to kill someone who has had good, reasonable and sensical content + was very early on the TMM bandwagon + that TMM kept trying to get dunked.
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# ? Sep 6, 2015 22:30 |
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I am having a wonderful labor day weekend, I hope you are too. I still see no good reason to mistrust the cop results, I have a hard time rationalizing why we would ignore it at a potential lylo
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# ? Sep 7, 2015 03:02 |
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The reason why people don't trust the cop results is that BottleKnight was investigated as scum and flipped town.
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# ? Sep 7, 2015 03:11 |
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I get that, but I thought we got a nexus explanation?
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# ? Sep 7, 2015 03:13 |
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Phone posting from a tram in Melbourne. So cold! But not redneck central! Is there any reason why BK couldn't have been bus driven instead of framed? I looked back at D2 and I don't really see much reason to frame him. The only person who really talked about him was merk and he certainly didn't get a lot of votes.
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# ? Sep 7, 2015 11:32 |
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That's a good question. Did the investigation say "BottleKnight is scum" or did it say "Your target is scum"? (or some synonym of scum)
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# ? Sep 7, 2015 12:08 |
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SirSamVimes posted:That's a good question. Did the investigation say "BottleKnight is scum" or did it say "Your target is scum"? (or some synonym of scum) you got a scum result on bk
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# ? Sep 7, 2015 13:35 |
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That's not very Ecco. Any flavor text, any of the nights? The exact wording may be helpful, even though you can't copy and paste. Can you see any PM-based reason to doubt your reads (other than BK's flip)?
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# ? Sep 7, 2015 15:11 |
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I don't think the bus driver was on me last night. Rarity/Mithross, both pretty much confirmed town, seems to indicate that the SK was bus driven to one of them.
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# ? Sep 7, 2015 15:21 |
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so I'm just going to ask this question not knowing if it's a bad one, what if we no-lynched since we're at an even number rn and I'd like to get another cop result?
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# ? Sep 7, 2015 20:44 |
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HiipFire posted:so I'm just going to ask this question not knowing if it's a bad one, what if we no-lynched since we're at an even number rn and I'd like to get another cop result? If we no dunk with the explicit intention to get more results from you, doesn't that just mean you get night killed? Meanwhile we're down 1-2 townies, and if the scum redirect lj or SK's kill to lj, the pearl gets dropped. It's got no upside because you're not making it through the night (and our watcher's gone), and the worst case scenario is really bad for us. At least if we dunk Lumpen or Sam, then I'm a realistic NK candidate, lj is a realistic candidate, and you are, so you might make it through.
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# ? Sep 7, 2015 22:40 |
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HiipFire posted:so I'm just going to ask this question not knowing if it's a bad one, what if we no-lynched since we're at an even number rn and I'd like to get another cop result? No-Lynch Best Case Scenario: LJ 'poons a Scum, SK kills a Scum, Scum kill SK, Hiip investigates a Scum, it'd be 1 Cop-caught Scum vs 6 Town, 4 Votes to lynch, easy win. No-Lynch Worst Case Scenario: LJ 'poons Town, SK and Scum kill Hiip and LJ, leaving 3 Scum, an SK, 3 Town, with the Pearl loose, 4 to lynch. Scum grab pearl and lynch the SK, clinching the numbers to endgame the Town at night. Lynch Best Case: Lynch Scum, LJ 'poons Scum, SK kills Scum, Scum kill SK, Town wins. Lynch Worst Case: Lynch Town, LJ 'poons Town, SK kills Town, Scum kill Town, 6 alive 4 to lynch, 3 Scum vs 1 SK and 2 Town, Scum get pearl and lynch SK, Scum win at night. If HiipFire survives the night to report another result, if there's a Framer or Busdriver still at large, then another result is of dubious value. (PMom ~conveniently~ downplays this, I note.)
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# ? Sep 7, 2015 22:46 |
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Day 5 Votecount Pinterest Mom (3): LJ, Hiip, Samfu, -LJ, Lumpen Samfucius (2): PMom, CPig Lumpen (1): LJ QuoProQuid (1): LJ With 10 alive it takes 6 votes to execute. Day 5 deadline: TUESDAY, September 8th, ~11PM EDT. DEADLINE EXTENDED 24 HOURS to account for the holiday. I will be sending reminder PMs tonight to players. EccoRaven fucked around with this message at 22:53 on Sep 7, 2015 |
# ? Sep 7, 2015 22:48 |
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Pinterest Mom posted:If we no dunk with the explicit intention to get more results from you, doesn't that just mean you get night killed? I don't see how lynch/no lynch changes the likelihood of the cop being a NK target.
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# ? Sep 7, 2015 22:50 |
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fiery_valkyrie posted:I don't see how lynch/no lynch changes the likelihood of the cop being a NK target. No dunk with the explicit intention to get more cop results: cop dies 100% of the time and we wasted a day; we have no more information and fewer town players. Dunk: with Lumpen/Samfu flipping scum, then I'm likely town and there's some chance of scum killing me, Hiip, or even lj to get the pearl.
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# ? Sep 7, 2015 23:05 |
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# ? Mar 28, 2024 21:40 |
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I don't see the difference. He's still a cop who can investigate someone.
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# ? Sep 8, 2015 00:01 |