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i imagine it will be something like kasich in the debate, but one huge problem for the GOP since ww2 is that it's been very difficult for them to distinguish between moderate GOP positions and mainstream democratic ones (the battles in the party between the moderates and the conservatives have been a huge driver in the shift to the right over the past several decades.) i really think that this election will be the final breaking of a political trend that started in the 60s; we may be witnessing the screaming, crying and very public death of movement conservatism in the US. trump is the endgame of decades of dogwhistling and spite voting so what will come out of the ashes? it's obvious now that the center cannot hold, etc, but the long-term problem is distinguishing themselves from a centrist democratic party. they also need to jettison the lunatic "fringe" (which might represent like half the party at this point.) it seems like an impossible task. alternatively, will the GOP manage to coddle together another silent majority? one of the more important "firsts" of the 2012 election was that it was the first time that a candidate won the white male vote but lost the election. i am doubtful that they will be able to salvage anything because the demographics to build a viable coalition out of racist and fundamentalist blowhards just isn't there anymore and they can't win elections without the racist and fundamentalist blowhards. baw has issued a correction as of 10:54 on Aug 11, 2015 |
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Aug 11, 2015 10:50
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when the GOP inevitably berns Trump shall seize upon this golden buy-low opportunity and the former Republican Party will thereafter be known as Trump Political Industries
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Aug 11, 2015 13:02
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the Silver Shirts will return
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Aug 11, 2015 14:16
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People were saying the GOP would inevitably change after losing in 2012. They did not. I don't see any reason why they will now, especially when they don't stand to lose much (if any) ground in Congress.
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Aug 11, 2015 14:21
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They are going to wail and gnash their teeth, then they will hold a 'study'. This study will show that they are out of touch and complete assholes, and to address these problematic issues, they will ignore that study. Rinse/Repeat. Harrow posted:People were saying the GOP would inevitably change after losing in 2012. They did not. I don't see any reason why they will now, especially when they don't stand to lose much (if any) ground in Congress. This. They have no reason to change since they control congress and a fairly large majority of states. They aren't losing, they just aren't in complete control.
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Aug 11, 2015 14:46
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They will still control the House and the Senate, and use that, in conjunction with their Governors and state positions, to keep their base rattled by being childishly defiant against the President and Federal government.
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Aug 11, 2015 14:49
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Bobby Jindal is going to go on national TV and yell at Obama again
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Aug 11, 2015 14:51
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Homestar Runner posted:when the GOP inevitably berns Trump shall seize upon this golden buy-low opportunity and the former Republican Party will thereafter be known as Trump Political Industries I wnat this to happen.
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Aug 11, 2015 14:52
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 Republican and Democratic Govs. A sad image. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_governors
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Aug 11, 2015 14:54
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Pohl posted:
NY should be Red.
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Aug 11, 2015 15:07
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Homestar Runner posted:when the GOP inevitably berns Trump shall seize upon this golden buy-low opportunity and the former Republican Party will thereafter be known as Trump Political Industries It's more likely that the Koch brothers will just say "gently caress it" and quit ruling the US via proxy to run for president and vice-president. That or Bernie will be elected and they won't shut up about national socialism and stir up a hornets nest of cold war era xenophobia with folks like Glen Beck and Alex Jones calling for armed insurrection. Then the GOP will just become the new libertarian free-market Confederacy.
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Aug 11, 2015 15:22
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they aren't going to lose because they will either elect their candidate or Hillary will win, and she's probably going to be more effective at realizing right-wing economic policy than any Republican President would have been anyway. They can only lose issues of identity politics, and who even cares about that poo poo?
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Aug 11, 2015 15:33
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Powercrazy posted:NY should be Red. I actually agree with that.
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Aug 11, 2015 15:37
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Pohl posted:They are going to wail and gnash their teeth, then they will hold a 'study'. they have reason to change because their coalition is not sustainable. the slow march of demographic change ensures this and even before the next census it's important to remember that gerrymandered districts become less effectively gerrymandered as time goes by as people move around
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Aug 11, 2015 15:37
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baw posted:they have reason to change because their coalition is not sustainable. the slow march of demographic change ensures this and even before the next census it's important to remember that gerrymandered districts become less effectively gerrymandered as time goes by as people move around They are free to re-gerrymander those districts as long as they remain in power in the majority of states, which doesn't seem to have an end in sight. I'm not saying they'll never change, just that we shouldn't expect it any time soon. They're almost certainly going to maintain control of Congress and the majority of state governments in the 2016 election. It's possible we'll see an anti-Republican wave in 2018, causing them to lose one of the houses of Congress or both, but that's too far out to possibly predict and depends a lot on what the economy does and who the president is in the mean time. The next time I could imagine Republicans losing in a landslide would be if they win the presidency in 2016 and the Republican president has an absolutely disastrous term. Then we might see a massive Democratic wave in 2020, and the Republican Party might be forced to reconfigure and readjust or risk dying out. But that's a lot of ifs.
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Aug 11, 2015 18:31
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the natural ruling party of america, OP
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Aug 11, 2015 18:31
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Harrow posted:People were saying the GOP would inevitably change after losing in 2012. They did not. I don't see any reason why they will now, especially when they don't stand to lose much (if any) ground in Congress. I first thought this might happen after 2008 but the midterm elections told a different story. I would be surprised if something like this hasn't been (somewhat reasonably but obviously incorrectly) predicted going back decades, for both parties. I think voters feel like it's important to have an opposing party keep the majority party in check, and I think that idea definitely has merit, but in a degenerate de facto two-party system it can easily become a dumb game of obstructionist tug-of-war.
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Aug 11, 2015 18:53
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Obstruct until they self-destruct
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Aug 11, 2015 19:01
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They'll look like this 
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Aug 11, 2015 19:15
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Pohl posted:They are going to wail and gnash their teeth, then they will hold a 'study'. They will do this. But what happens then? They can't do it again in 2020. The wonks are getting frustrated with the red-meat morons. What do they do? They can't make a third party for the moderates due to the intrinsic realities of the US electoral system. There's so many crazies, they can't just be ignored and discounted. But it's the "serious" beltway Republicans that mostly bring in the big money, that mostly conduct the real policy, that mostly appeal to someone not concerned with creeping Sharia. They're tethered to each other, the psychos cant win without the moderate corporatists and vice versa. So what happens then? Edit: ESPECIALLY since the fringe is only going to get more rabid in coming years. You thought 8 years of a black man got them riled up, wait until you see a few with a WOMAN who's also a CLINTON walgreenslatino has issued a correction as of 19:36 on Aug 11, 2015 |
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Aug 11, 2015 19:33
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old and white like usual
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Aug 11, 2015 19:58
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Win or lose 2016, the GOP isn't going to be changing anytime soon. They will likely win the mid-terms if Hillary or Sanders or Biden wins the Presidency because the Dem base just has done a poo poo job of turning out in non-presidential election years. As long as they control 1 branch of government (even if it's just the House), you won't see the general ideology of the party changing. If anything, they'll ratchet up the crazy. Don't forget, the GOP holds a significant majority of governerships in the country right now -- when the 2020 census comes around, if the GOP still has control in the majority of state legislatures like they do in 2015, you'll still be seeing gerrymandered districs, 90%+ African American districts, and an unrealistic shot for the Democrats to win back the House.
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Aug 11, 2015 20:23
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Lord of Pie posted:They'll look like this I really miss his Fox show. O'reilly et. al. give off this smug veneer as the party's willing mouthpieces, but Beck was just pure, earnest, distilled insanity.
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Aug 11, 2015 20:30
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There's no reason to expect a change in the GOP platform. The first reason is simply human psychology: the active Republican establishment can't simply say they were wrong about all theses social and economic issues and that they now hold the opinion of the communists(Democrats) on the left that they've been vilifying for the last 50 years. Without a change in the politics of their base and/or the literal extinction of the party, there's no reason to expect change. Republican voters have in fact been becoming more extreme. The threat of being primaried by some lunatic tea party candidate is real for moderate and old establishment Republicans. That and the fact that as other people have pointed out, that besides this one office, republicans are doing great, we shouldn't expect the GOP to change for poo poo. Did you see how they responded after losing the last two presidential elections? "Our message is fine, we just need to communicate it better."
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Aug 11, 2015 22:17
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The GOP won't change until they start losing congressional and state elections
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Aug 11, 2015 22:20
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lol if you don't think the pendulum will swing back like it always does. people were having this same conversation except about dems in 2003 i think people forget that obama is an extremely skilled politican and speaker- a lot of the dems recent success is on his back. do people really think clinton is going to be able to pick up that torch? she's an utterly awful campaigner, no shock she lost a primary that was given to her by someone named hussain. TROIKA CURES GREEK has issued a correction as of 22:26 on Aug 11, 2015 |
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Aug 11, 2015 22:22
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:i think people forget that obama is an extremely skilled politican and speaker- a lot of the dems recent success is on his back. do people really think clinton is going to be able to pick up that torch? she's an utterly awful campaigner, no shock she lost a primary that was given to her by someone named hussain. She might be an awful campaigner but that's not necessarily predictive of anything, as most of the Republican field are also awful campaigners
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Aug 11, 2015 22:27
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:lol if you don't think the pendulum will swing back like it always does. people were having this same conversation except about dems in 2003 Sure, the pendulum will swing, but I'm frankly not sure it's on the Democrats' side right now. Look at the steady losses they've taken in Congress and in state governments since 2010. Many of the things Democrats would consider successes during Obama's presidency have been due to executive orders and Supreme Court rulings (and to be fair, Obama did get to appoint two justices). In fact, I'd be willing to bet if the Republicans could shed/soften some of their increasingly unpopular social policies, they'd stand a really good chance of getting the presidency in 2016. Even if the national political "pendulum" is on the Democrats' side right now, it might not swing back just yet. People might've expected the pendulum to swing back in 1988 after Reagan left office, but then Bush beat Dukakis handily and continued the 1980s Republican wave.
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Aug 11, 2015 22:35
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:i think people forget that obama is an extremely skilled politican and speaker- a lot of the dems recent success is on his back. do people really think clinton is going to be able to pick up that torch? she's an utterly awful campaigner, no shock she lost a primary that was given to her by someone named hussain. Hillary Clinton is going to have both Campaign Obama and Bill Clinton whispering the sweetest of nothing in voters' ears. Meanwhile she'll be initiating what appears to be the highest quality GOTV operation seen in some time. There's also a pretty good chance Bernie will be spreading the socialist gospel in support of her as well. Also of note, Campaign Obama will be Constitutionally mandated to be out of fucks, so he could be the best he's ever been.
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Aug 11, 2015 22:37
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baw posted:i imagine it will be something like kasich in the debate, but one huge problem for the GOP since ww2 is that it's been very difficult for them to distinguish between moderate GOP positions and mainstream democratic ones (the battles in the party between the moderates and the conservatives have been a huge driver in the shift to the right over the past several decades.) i really think that this election will be the final breaking of a political trend that started in the 60s; we may be witnessing the screaming, crying and very public death of movement conservatism in the US. trump is the endgame of decades of dogwhistling and spite voting Movement conservatism was just the booster rocket designed to get the neoliberal payload air born. Now that the payload is delivered and a huge mushroom cloud of oligarchy is towering high into the sky it hardly matters that the delivery system is a flaming ruin. Also note that below the presidential level the Democratic party is basically in shambles. They'll probably be locked out of the House for the forseeable future, will have to struggle mightily to retake the senate, and have been routed in most state legislatures. At the local level movement conservatives are busily making abortions impossible or massacring union rights. I might not be so quick to declare victory just because milquetoast corporate Democrats running for president can scrape out 51.1 percent of the popular vote when running against a literal Plutocrat who brags about how much he loves to fire people.
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Aug 11, 2015 23:09
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Harrow posted:Sure, the pendulum will swing, but I'm frankly not sure it's on the Democrats' side right now. Look at the steady losses they've taken in Congress and in state governments since 2010. Many of the things Democrats would consider successes during Obama's presidency have been due to executive orders and Supreme Court rulings (and to be fair, Obama did get to appoint two justices). In fact, I'd be willing to bet if the Republicans could shed/soften some of their increasingly unpopular social policies, they'd stand a really good chance of getting the presidency in 2016. Here in Texas, Democrats have been counting on demographic shifts, but the Republicans have actually increased their share of the vote as the state becomes less white. It didn't help that Wendy Davis, who no one remembers now, was a truly awful candidate. Hispanic voters here are also voting Republican at higher and higher rates, or staying home. Sen. John Cornyn won this Hispanic vote here in his last re-election campaign, which shocked the Democrats. BrutalistMcDonalds has issued a correction as of 00:07 on Aug 12, 2015 |
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Aug 11, 2015 23:59
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Omi-Polari posted:People also talk about the Republicans being at a demographic disadvantage because the base is old and white, but they're offsetting it by further increasing their share of the white vote, especially middle-class white voters which the Democrats are hemorrhaging like they did working-class whites a generation ago. These are your thirty and forty-something politically disengaged office workers who voted for Obama in 2008. Right, basically the only thing keeping most minorities from not voting GOP is because of the virulent racism that oozes from the party.Hispanics tend to be religious and socially conservative, same for African Americans. In some areas that's worse than others. What's going to get really interesting is when Hispanics start joining evangelical churches in great enough numbers.
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Aug 12, 2015 00:11
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Dr.Mrs.The Monarch posted:What's going to get really interesting is when Hispanics start joining evangelical churches in great enough numbers. Why would they leave the One True Church to join a bunch of heretics?
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Aug 12, 2015 00:28
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What are the chances they just deny media access to social conservatives to draw in moderates, and gamble on the chance that the crazies will vote for them regardless if they portray the opponent as a socialist/baby killer/gay black man?
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Aug 12, 2015 00:35
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The Democrats targeting non-white ethnic groups -- as whites decline in relative numbers -- is an intuitive strategy. Also, focusing on "the women's vote" more broadly. But there's a problem with it. The main reason being that these groups are not ideologically united or internally consistent. It's not a coherent alliance and will fracture if the GOP is smart and focuses on common points of ideological agreement.
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Aug 12, 2015 00:36
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Dr.Mrs.The Monarch posted:What's going to get really interesting is when Hispanics start joining evangelical churches in great enough numbers. What do you mean by start? 16% of Hispanics are evangelicals. Then again 18% are unaffiliated, and even the evangelicals are more liberal than their white counterparts.
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Aug 12, 2015 01:03
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Ralp posted:I first thought this might happen after 2008 but the midterm elections told a different story. I would be surprised if something like this hasn't been (somewhat reasonably but obviously incorrectly) predicted going back decades, for both parties. I think voters feel like it's important to have an opposing party keep the majority party in check, and I think that idea definitely has merit, but in a degenerate de facto two-party system it can easily become a dumb game of obstructionist tug-of-war. the death of the american right was predicted after goldwater lost in 1964, but nixon managed to put together a coalition to stave it off for a few decades now the question is, what coalition can they possibly put together in order to sustain themselves
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Aug 12, 2015 01:20
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Dreylad posted:the natural ruling party of america, OP that's the central theme of gould's book  since the party's creation they have viewed themselves as the rightful ruling party, with occasional periods of democratic usurpation keeping them from power
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Aug 12, 2015 01:24
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baw posted:the death of the american right was predicted after goldwater lost in 1964, but nixon managed to put together a coalition to stave it off for a few decades I think the answer is here: http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/the-emerging-republican-advantage-20150130 quote:The Democrats' best chances in next year's elections will come if Republicans run candidates identified with the Religious Right or the tea party or the GOP's plutocratic wing. If Republicans are smart, they will nominate for president someone in the mold of George W. Bush in 2000 or the numerous GOP Senate candidates who won last year—a politician who runs from the center-right, soft-pedals social issues, including immigration, critiques government without calling for abolishing the income tax and Social Security, and displays a good ol' boy empathy for the less well-to-do. Such a candidate would cater to the Republican advantage among the middle class without alienating the white working class.
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Aug 12, 2015 03:42
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I think the gay marriage issue is dead for the GOP. Santorum tried to resuscitate it during the debate but Kasich buried it for the rest of them to great applause from the audience. The main threat to the GOP at the moment is the immigration issue. That's what they need to reform to attract more Hispanic voters (which they very well could). Trump is poisoning the well for them at the moment, though. The irony -- and this is politically radioactive to say in polite company -- but I think Trump is the best chance the Republicans have at pulling black voters away from the Democrats. Far from a majority but more than many people would expect. Aside, I'm reading Battle Cry of Freedom right now and an interesting thing about the late-1850s is that the Republican Party was in a very similar position to today. A different party at the time, of course. But it was torn between appealing to the nativist Know Nothing part of its coalition without alienating Catholic Irish and German immigrants, which the party needed bring on board.
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Aug 12, 2015 03:54
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