would you

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g0lbez: Dec 25, 2004; and then you'll beg

like seriously

vendagoat

what the gently caress would you do with one million dollars

times that by five

not enough money apparently

# ? Aug 14, 2015 02:19

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# ? Apr 16, 2024 17:26

VendaGoat: Nov 1, 2005

g0lbez posted:

five million isn't enough?

43 thou a year, in twelve years?

Strangely enough I have a list of skills that I can put on a resume that would start me at roughly 30-35k Given twelve years from there, even at a 3% increase for inflation. Thats what? 44k a year?

If I decide to actually apply myself and suck as much dick, balls and rear end as I can, whelp, there yah go.

# ? Aug 14, 2015 02:22

g0lbez: Dec 25, 2004; and then you'll beg

VendaGoat posted:

43 thou a year, in twelve years?

Strangely enough I have a list of skills that I can put on a resume that would start me at roughly 30-35k Given twelve years from there, even at a 3% increase for inflation. Thats what? 44k a year?

If I decide to actually apply myself and suck as much dick, balls and rear end as I can, whelp, there yah go.

you're assuming worst case scenario though...

best case you could have five million in two weeks. that's like... the point of the thought experiment

# ? Aug 14, 2015 02:25

1001 Arabian dicks: Sep 16, 2013; EVE ONLINE IS MY ENTIRE PERSONALITY BECAUSE IM A FRIENDLESS SEMILITERATE LOSER WHO WILL PEDANTICALLY DEMAND PROOF FOR BASIC THINGS LIKE GRAVITY OR THE EXISTENCE OF SELF. ASK ME ABOUT CHEATING AT TARKOV BECAUSE, WELL, SEE ABOVE

at least it's job security and i can drop out of college

# ? Aug 14, 2015 02:26

VendaGoat: Nov 1, 2005

g0lbez posted:

you're assuming worst case scenario though...

best case you could have five million in two weeks. that's like... the point of the thought experiment

Ok, do me a favor. Bring 312 dollars to a casino and place one dollar on 312 consecutive spins of roulette. Tell me how much money you finish with.

# ? Aug 14, 2015 02:26

g0lbez: Dec 25, 2004; and then you'll beg

VendaGoat posted:

Ok, do me a favor. Bring 312 dollars to a casino and place one dollar on 312 consecutive spins of roulette. Tell me how much money you finish with.

nah

# ? Aug 14, 2015 02:27

VendaGoat: Nov 1, 2005

g0lbez posted:

nah

Well, you've answered your own loving question now haven't you?

# ? Aug 14, 2015 02:28

g0lbez: Dec 25, 2004; and then you'll beg

VendaGoat posted:

Well, you've answered your own loving question now haven't you?

chill out VendaGoat it's a thought experiement

# ? Aug 14, 2015 02:28

VendaGoat: Nov 1, 2005

g0lbez posted:

chill out VendaGoat it's a thought experiement

yes it is.

Relax yourself

# ? Aug 14, 2015 02:29

Mr. Meagles: Apr 30, 2004; Out here, everything hurts

if i had five million dollars i'd jack it for 6-8 hours a day and die of alcoholism at like, 37

being poor keeps me motivated to stay alive so I can chase that dream

# ? Aug 14, 2015 02:33

greg sexyvibes: May 7, 2007; IF I EVER FIRST POST AGAIN SOMETHING BAD WILL HAPPEN TO ME

I'd keep working after my jackpot and get a second one. I'd your the world with my band that doesn't make any money, doing movies but donating all my winnings to charity, just waiting for my 5 million.

# ? Aug 14, 2015 02:34

VendaGoat: Nov 1, 2005

12 Years minimum for even money, the actual payout could never even happen.
Or
It could happen on week two.

:shrug:

People set different priorities, yo.

# ? Aug 14, 2015 02:39

naem: May 29, 2011

Is it like within the 300 two-week periods I'm guaranteed to win the $5 million because then yes

it would take 11ish years to guarantee the money, I'd insist on a signed contract to that effect and would use it to take out a loan to pay my living expenses while working and of course the possibility is I'd "win" sooner

# ? Aug 14, 2015 02:45

Dr. Stab: Sep 12, 2010; 👨🏻‍⚕️🩺🔪🙀😱🙀

Yes because I'm rich and can afford it. Suck it poor people.

# ? Aug 14, 2015 02:48

Sizone: Sep 13, 2007; by LadyAmbien

would not op. let me tell you about a little something called the gambler's fallacy. random chance doesn't aggregate, that is, if you have a 1/300 chance every week you will not, after 300 weeks, have a 1/1 chance.

# ? Aug 14, 2015 11:27

Shasta Orange Soda: Apr 25, 2007

VendaGoat posted:

43 thou a year, in twelve years?

is $516,000?

# ? Aug 14, 2015 11:44

Tree Goat: May 24, 2009; argania spinosa

you have a 50% chance of receiving the $5mil at any point before ~8 years.

you have a 90% chance of receiving the $5mil at any point before ~26.5 years

you have a 95% chance of receiving the $5mil at any point before ~34.5 years

good luck chumps

# ? Aug 14, 2015 13:50

VendaGoat: Nov 1, 2005

Shasta Orange Soda posted:

is $516,000?

I had a lot to drink last night.
I am not an engineer.
Am fat
and the guy above me did a better job

# ? Aug 14, 2015 17:23

im pooping!: Nov 17, 2006

# ? Aug 14, 2015 18:03

VendaGoat: Nov 1, 2005

im pooping! posted:

No, I'm much fatter than that. I'm Death Dad Gay, So What Fat.

# ? Aug 14, 2015 18:44

Blurry Gray Thing: Jun 3, 2009

criscodisco posted:

You still fail to grasp how odds work. While you would think that the chances would be greater after so many tries, that's just not how it works. If you flip a coin 20 times and it's always heads, that doesn't increase the likelihood of it coming up tails on flip 20 at all.

Sizone posted:

would not op. let me tell you about a little something called the gambler's fallacy. random chance doesn't aggregate, that is, if you have a 1/300 chance every week you will not, after 300 weeks, have a 1/1 chance.

The formula for odds in n weeks would be 1 - (299/300)^n

The odds on your next one do not get greater but more attempts means the chance that it will happen at some point are a lot higher than just one in three hundred.

Here is Doctor Math:

Doctor Math posted:

In one roll, the probability of rolling a 6 is 1/6.

For two rolls, there is a 1/6 probability of rolling a six on the first roll.
If this occurs, we've satisfied our condition. There is a 5/6 probability
that the first roll is not a 6. In that case, we need to see if the second
roll is a 6. The probability of the second roll being a 6 is 1/6, so our
overall probability is 1/6 + (5/6)*(1/6) = 11/36. Why did I multiply the
second 1/6 by 5/6? Because I only need to consider the 5/6 of the time that
the first roll wasn't a 6. As you can see the probability is slightly less
than 2/6.

For three rolls, there is a 1/6 probability of rolling a six on the first
roll. There is a 5/6 probability that the first roll is not a 6. In that
case, we need to see if the second roll is a 6. The probability of the second
roll being a 6 is 1/6, giving us a probability of 11/36. There is a 25/36
probability that neither of the first two rolls was a 6. In that case, we
need to see if the third roll is a 6. The probability of the third roll being
a 6 is 1/6, giving us a probability of 1/6 + (5/6)*(1/6) + (25/36)*(1/6) =
91/216. Again, this is less than 3/6.

The general formula for rolling at least one 6 in n rolls is 1 - (5/6)^n.

One final note: the probability of rolling _exactly_ one 6 in n rolls is
different, and a little more difficult to compute.

http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/56502.html

# ? Aug 14, 2015 18:46

Moridin920: Nov 15, 2007; by FactsAreUseless

i took AP stats and blurry gray thing is correct

# ? Aug 14, 2015 18:59

Ride The Gravitron: May 2, 2008; by FactsAreUseless

I got a better idea. You all pay me 2 grand a week ACD every day I will buy a lottery ticket in your name. You can't lose

# ? Aug 14, 2015 19:29

Tree Goat: May 24, 2009; argania spinosa

You'd want to divide BGT's n by 2 and round down, since we're checking ever other week, but otherwise that's right.

Also important to note is that the OP doesn't specify whether or not you can remain employed after you "win" - if you can just keep winning the $5mil, and you're not immediately fired once you do, then the expected value of any particular two week check is just like with a lottery ticket, winnings*probability - cost, so a cool $16.7k. That means the expected value of all of your chances for a year is a pretty deece 6 fig $433k.

# ? Aug 14, 2015 19:33

teardrop: Dec 20, 2004; by Pragmatica

Hey thread lets all unionize and split the winnings evenly that gets us closer to that steady 16.7k check every 2 weeks

# ? Aug 14, 2015 20:56

dad gay. so what: Feb 18, 2003; by FactsAreUseless

i wish i had a check every 2 weeks

# ? Aug 14, 2015 20:58

prinneh: Jul 29, 2005; prince of denmark

Give me room and board for the work and I'll start tomorrow.

# ? Aug 14, 2015 21:07

teardrop: Dec 20, 2004; by Pragmatica

850 views come on we can make this happen

# ? Aug 14, 2015 21:12

Fishy Joe: Apr 19, 2005; Eat at Fishy Joe's

become a slave on the hopes that your massa will will all his money to you when he dies of a heart attack after loving your wife? hmmm sounds like a lovely deal to me

# ? Aug 14, 2015 21:33

VendaGoat: Nov 1, 2005

Let's also look at this from a sociopath's perspective. No one who has this money and is willing to play this game with another, is going to give the gambler a fair shake.

"Nope, you lost again this week. Guess you'll have to keep working and try again. Nope! Still not a winner! NOPE LOL gently caress YOU AHAHAHHAHAHHAHHAHAHA I loving OWN YOU! DANCE! DANCE YOU loving MONKEY! It amuses me!"

# ? Aug 14, 2015 21:40

flick my Mr. Bean: Nov 18, 2014

I've a lucky rabbits paw and the confidence to go along with it. Yes! My answer is Yes!

# ? Aug 14, 2015 21:54

false flag post-op: May 13, 2009; Enjoy Every Sandvich

Still have not received full payment. Please resolve this issue or I will be forced to escalate.

# ? Aug 16, 2015 02:58

g0lbez: Dec 25, 2004; and then you'll beg

i'm gonna bump this thread because i like the topic it's intriguing

# ? Sep 3, 2016 06:24

Flesh Forge: Jan 31, 2011; LET ME TELL YOU ABOUT MY DOG

g0lbez posted:

would you take a job that didn't pay anything and you couldn't work any other jobs (not including SO's or spouses) but every two weeks you had a 1/300 chance of winning five million dollars

What if you didn't have the 1/300 chance of winning the 5 million dollars though

# ? Sep 3, 2016 06:40