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Why did they add a market about Al Gore becoming a candidate? Is that something anyone has talked about ever?
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Sep 5, 2015 01:04
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fronz posted:Link to the Fiorina announcement? http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/01/politics/cnn-debate-criteria-amendment/
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Sep 5, 2015 01:06
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Stereotype posted:Why did they add a market about Al Gore becoming a candidate? Is that something anyone has talked about ever? Someone asked al if he was running and hew as like "Lol, no."
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Sep 5, 2015 01:19
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Here's a link to the actual rules http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/01/politics/cnn-debate-rules-september-16/index.html They are only letting in 10 people, but they expanded their allowable polls to be included in the average. If Christie and Paul are tied for 10th (they are) then PAUL gets in because he was in the lead for the previous polling period. Christie still might get bumped. Disclaimer: I have like a dollar riding on Christie not being in the debate.
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Sep 5, 2015 01:31
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Stereotype posted:Here's a link to the actual rules You might want to try reading those again. I suggest focusing on Section 7a, which clearly allows additional candidates beyond the top 10 from Section 7.
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Sep 5, 2015 02:07
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Vox Nihili posted:You might want to try reading those again. I suggest focusing on Section 7a, which clearly allows additional candidates beyond the top 10 from Section 7. If there is one more poll before the 10th, Fiorina gets a 5 or above, and Christie gets a 3 or below, then she becomes 10th for the July 16th to September 10th average, knocking Christie to 11th and out of the section 7a qualifications. He is already not in the top 10 in the August 7th to September 10th average, and if he polls similarly to what he is now, he won't be. (7b might be an average or might be ANY poll in that period, it isn't really clear), I think it was a risk worthy of buying some 10c stock. Plus it would be extra hilarious to see him pouting on the B-team stage if I also won money on it.
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Sep 5, 2015 03:32
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Stereotype posted:If there is one more poll before the 10th, Fiorina gets a 5 or above, and Christie gets a 3 or below, then she becomes 10th for the July 16th to September 10th average, knocking Christie to 11th and out of the section 7a qualifications. Nope, it's no where near one poll of 5 or above vs. one poll of 3 or below to knock Christie out of the Section 7 qualification. I don't know if you're including polls that CNN isn't using, looking at the RCP numbers, or what, but the actual numbers are no where near that. For example, the most useful poll for pushing down Christie, the PPP poll with him at 2% and Fiorina at 8%, is not included in the CNN average. In your previous post, you said Christie and Paul are tied; this is not true. I think you are looking at the RCP averages rather than the CNN qualifying polls, which look much further back and exclude several recent polls. This chart doesn't include the most recent poll, but the excluded poll has Christie at 2% and Carly at 4%, not nearly enough to move the numbers here:  Stereotype posted:He is already not in the top 10 in the August 7th to September 10th average, and if he polls similarly to what he is now, he won't be. (7b might be an average or might be ANY poll in that period, it isn't really clear), He was never going to make it in under the August to Sept. polling average, which was added specifically to add Fiorina as an 11th candidate. There is no Section 7b, so I don't know what you're referring to there. quote:I think it was a risk worthy of buying some 10c stock. Plus it would be extra hilarious to see him pouting on the B-team stage if I also won money on it. I think you'll find plenty of 10c No shares available if you want to make that bet. Barring any further CNN changes, it looks like a long shot.
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Sep 5, 2015 03:47
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Vox Nihili posted:Nope, it's no where near one poll of 5 or above vs. one poll of 3 or below to knock Christie out of the Section 7 qualification. I don't know if you're including polls that CNN isn't using, looking at the RCP numbers, or what, but the actual numbers are no where near that. For example, the most useful poll for pushing down Christie, the PPP poll with him at 2% and Fiorina at 8%, is not included in the CNN average. Ah thats where my problem is, I didn't exclude PPP and Rasmussen. Excluding those, Fiorina needs a 12(!) with Christie getting a 2, or an 11 if he gets a 1. Thats way less likely. quote:He was never going to make it in under the August to Sept. polling average, which was added specifically to add Fiorina as an 11th candidate. There is no Section 7b, so I don't know what you're referring to there. quote:I think you'll find plenty of 10c No shares available if you want to make that bet. Barring any further CNN changes, it looks like a long shot. Already got 10 for 10c, but oh well, my dollar probably isn't going to turn into 10 dollars.
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Sep 5, 2015 04:08
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Vox Nihili posted:Nope, it's no where near one poll of 5 or above vs. one poll of 3 or below to knock Christie out of the Section 7 qualification. I don't know if you're including polls that CNN isn't using, looking at the RCP numbers, or what, but the actual numbers are no where near that. For example, the most useful poll for pushing down Christie, the PPP poll with him at 2% and Fiorina at 8%, is not included in the CNN average. It looks like the price has bumped up from when you first asked, but I think it's very likely Christie makes it (and I think you agree). I'm sitting on my 0.79 shares.
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Sep 5, 2015 05:17
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Debating about whether or not to go in on "obama will not veto congressional disapproval of iran". Seems like the likely no-voters are already out, but there are a couple people who say they offer their support to overturn a veto, but will not filibuster it.
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Sep 5, 2015 22:06
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The "can't lose" prospect of Biden Will Run shares has been a loser this week, going from 56/share to low-mid 30s.
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Sep 5, 2015 22:46
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Golden Bee posted:The "can't lose" prospect of Biden Will Run shares has been a loser this week, going from 56/share to low-mid 30s. I've got a bunch of No shares on this one, not sure if I should sell or hold at this point. Looks like the price will keep going up, but I don't want to be caught unaware if Biden actually pulls the trigger, which is still possible.
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Sep 5, 2015 23:20
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Vox Nihili posted:I've got a bunch of No shares on this one, not sure if I should sell or hold at this point. Looks like the price will keep going up, but I don't want to be caught unaware if Biden actually pulls the trigger, which is still possible. I think if he's going to announce it'll be on Colbert's show, and I don't think he will; no is going to go way up if he doesn't announce on the show
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Sep 5, 2015 23:24
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fronz posted:I think if he's going to announce it'll be on Colbert's show, and I don't think he will; no is going to go way up if he doesn't announce on the show I think the odds of a Colbert announcement are close to zero. Biden said he would make his decision around the end of the month, I think. Anyway, here are my current positions:  Trying to sell the Carson @ Iowa shares, holding the rest for the moment.
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Sep 5, 2015 23:33
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Vox Nihili posted:I think the odds of a Colbert announcement are close to zero. Biden said he would make his decision around the end of the month, I think. i think probably good to hold on til after that then. people are super reactionary and it'll drive the price up.
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Sep 5, 2015 23:40
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I like the No side of Jeb! polling tinstaach has issued a correction as of 18:43 on Sep 7, 2015 |
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Sep 7, 2015 16:01
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tinstaach posted:I like the No side of Jeb! polling below 10% on September 30, at least in the short term. There's a CNN poll from 8/16 that has him at 13, once that goes away his RCP average will be down to 8. Plus Trump's probably going to make him cry at the debate. This is why I'm holding, I was able to buy in at 51. I'm prepared to dump if he does something good on Colbert tomorrow, but that's unlikely imo.
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Sep 7, 2015 18:39
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So if I'm holding some 33 on Biden not running, should I wait until his late night appearance this week temporarily crushes the hopes of the yes people? I don't think he's going to get in, but dude's still not in a good place and he really does want to run again.
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Sep 7, 2015 20:08
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Gyges posted:So if I'm holding some 33 on Biden not running, should I wait until his late night appearance this week temporarily crushes the hopes of the yes people? I don't think he's going to get in, but dude's still not in a good place and he really does want to run again. Since it dropped a bit for no reason, I would hold until it bumps back up.
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Sep 7, 2015 21:22
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PredictIt now has Bernie Sanders favored to win Iowa if y'all want to stock up on NO shares. I have Bernie at NO at .71 and have to hold on probably until December 
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Sep 7, 2015 23:37
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Vox Nihili posted:I've got a bunch of No shares on this one, not sure if I should sell or hold at this point. Looks like the price will keep going up, but I don't want to be caught unaware if Biden actually pulls the trigger, which is still possible. I'll say that there is a rumor going around that Biden's committee has begun recruiting finance staff and will make a surprise announcement next week. The Draft Biden SuperPAC has also somehow come into a large amount of money and is now staffing up in the four early voting states.
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Sep 7, 2015 23:58
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Concerned Citizen posted:I'll say that there is a rumor going around that Biden's committee has begun recruiting finance staff and will make a surprise announcement next week. The Draft Biden SuperPAC has also somehow come into a large amount of money and is now staffing up in the four early voting states. Thanks for the tip, do you know where the rumor came from?
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Sep 8, 2015 00:03
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Vox Nihili posted:Thanks for the tip, do you know where the rumor came from? Would also like to know this. I got my No shares for pretty cheap and can still dump them at a profit. I still don't think he's going to run but if those rumors are credible I don't think it's worth the risk.
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Sep 8, 2015 00:05
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Also what's your guys' thoughts on GITMO17? Obama is still saying he's going to shut it down but I really doubt he'll be able to get congress to cooperate.
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Sep 8, 2015 00:08
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I'd say that's a good buy around November of next year to sell in January.
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Sep 8, 2015 00:11
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Necc0 posted:Would also like to know this. I got my No shares for pretty cheap and can still dump them at a profit. I still don't think he's going to run but if those rumors are credible I don't think it's worth the risk. The SuperPAC stuff is public record. JobsthatareLEFT, a Dem staff job board, had them up (under the header "National Presidential Political Organization" or something to that effect, but the from line was connected with a Draft Biden employee). The finance stuff I heard about a week ago from a Dem staffer not connected with the Biden people. Their friend was approached about it. I've also heard from another source in Dem politics as well that folks have been approached about joining Biden staff. Again, just rumors. Nothing I can personally attest to, but I personally place credence in it.
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Sep 8, 2015 00:50
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Concerned Citizen posted:The SuperPAC stuff is public record. JobsthatareLEFT, a Dem staff job board, had them up (under the header "National Presidential Political Organization" or something to that effect, but the from line was connected with a Draft Biden employee). The finance stuff I heard about a week ago from a Dem staffer not connected with the Biden people. Their friend was approached about it. I've also heard from another source in Dem politics as well that folks have been approached about joining Biden staff. Again, just rumors. Nothing I can personally attest to, but I personally place credence in it. That's insider trading.
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Sep 8, 2015 02:57
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Jewel Repetition posted:That's insider trading. I don't think so.
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Sep 8, 2015 03:05
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Concerned Citizen posted:I don't think so. it's a joke
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Sep 8, 2015 05:15
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Concerned Citizen posted:The SuperPAC stuff is public record. JobsthatareLEFT, a Dem staff job board, had them up (under the header "National Presidential Political Organization" or something to that effect, but the from line was connected with a Draft Biden employee). The finance stuff I heard about a week ago from a Dem staffer not connected with the Biden people. Their friend was approached about it. I've also heard from another source in Dem politics as well that folks have been approached about joining Biden staff. Again, just rumors. Nothing I can personally attest to, but I personally place credence in it. I knew the Draft Joe people have been hiring, so that's not too surprising. I guess the question is whether any of these positions are directly connected with Biden, rather than the Biden PACs and other boosters.
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Sep 8, 2015 09:58
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By the way, he isn't going to announce on Colbert: http://blogs.reuters.com/talesfromthetrail/2015/09/02/a-biden-announcement-on-colbert-no-way/ People will expect him to, though, so the price will probably spike before the show and crash afterwards. Whether he announces later is another question.
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Sep 8, 2015 09:59
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Vox Nihili posted:I knew the Draft Joe people have been hiring, so that's not too surprising. I guess the question is whether any of these positions are directly connected with Biden, rather than the Biden PACs and other boosters. Yeah, I mean it's a game of telephone at some point with these things. The announcement date (which was told to me as one week after labor day) was pretty specific though. Could have been speculation passed on as fact, though. Still, there's a lot of smoke and a lot of things coming together at once. Concerned Citizen has issued a correction as of 14:39 on Sep 8, 2015 |
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Sep 8, 2015 14:36
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Vox Nihili posted:By the way, he isn't going to announce on Colbert: http://blogs.reuters.com/talesfromthetrail/2015/09/02/a-biden-announcement-on-colbert-no-way/ Still got cold feet and liquidated 1/3 of my 'No' shares at a meager profit despite this. I'll ride out the rest of 'em to see where this goes.
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Sep 8, 2015 16:44
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It's funny how the get-rich-quick possibilties make us dissatisfied with getting a 10% ROI in a week.
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Sep 8, 2015 17:03
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tinstaach posted:It's funny how the get-rich-quick possibilties make us dissatisfied with getting a 10% ROI in a week. To be fair, unless you're constantly throwing around a full $850, a 10% ROI in a single market isn't really that spectacular. e: for perspective, in the two months I've been using the site, I've managed to make a full 500% return just by not being a moron. Wanamingo has issued a correction as of 18:59 on Sep 8, 2015 |
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Sep 8, 2015 18:56
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Necc0 posted:Still got cold feet and liquidated 1/3 of my 'No' shares at a meager profit despite this. I'll ride out the rest of 'em to see where this goes. A bunch of mine sold at 61c overnight somehow, so I'm down to 100 shares. I'll definitely buy back in if he doesn't announce by next Tuesday.
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Sep 8, 2015 19:13
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Wanamingo posted:e: for perspective, in the two months I've been using the site, I've managed to make a full 500% return just by not being a moron. I feel like the only way to achieve that outcome is to get in on new markets from the start or assume a pretty substantial amount of risk.
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Sep 8, 2015 19:14
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By the way, this looks like a pretty good deal: https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleOption?contractId=1166 The filibuster is almost a done deal, yet No is selling in the 80 cent range.
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Sep 8, 2015 19:19
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Vox Nihili posted:I feel like the only way to achieve that outcome is to get in on new markets from the start or assume a pretty substantial amount of risk. I'm not exactly a political genius, and I'm only bothering with the barest of strategic betting. I would assume that there are other people here who are managing to do loads better than I am. 
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Sep 8, 2015 19:40
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Wanamingo posted:I'm not exactly a political genius, and I'm only bothering with the barest of strategic betting. I would assume that there are other people here who are managing to do loads better than I am. Which markets have you been playing in, if you don't mind me asking?
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Sep 8, 2015 19:56
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