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Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Sure

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Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Hi I guess? Never done Mafia, have no idea what's going on.

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Opopanax posted:

Confirming ##vote lumpen

Getting on this bandwagon

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





HiipFire posted:

you should vote him then

i like you tho

Oh, we're formal about it then? ##vote lumpen

SirSamVimes posted:

To vote, type ##vote playername or an approximation of their name. Only ##vote will register on SA's automatic vote tallying bot.

Ill admit it, that's kind of nifty.

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Lumpen posted:

##vote lowellDND

Ah ha, if you voted me now it would be both an OMGUS vote and a third-vote on a D1 bandwagon. Only a Scum would do such a thing.

That sounds like something a Scum would say.

Additionally, YOU are the one doing the OMGUS vote. Scum confirmed!

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Rarity posted:

I'm such a proud mafia mommy :3:

:3:

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Kashuno posted:

You can trust me

Okay. :)

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Lumpen posted:

Newbies! Please be less shy! You must have opinions and reactions to some posts you've seen, share your thoughts, they will be very welcome.

What is vig?

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





fiery_valkyrie posted:

Acebuckeye, Chamale, Colonel Corazon, LowellDND and Someone Awful,

what is your previous mafia experience? If you have played mafia before was it online or in real life?

Never played.

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





votefinder posted:

Votecount for Day 1

Lumpen (4): HiipFire, Opopanax, LowellDND, apostateCourier, Kashuno, Rarity, apostateCourier, Kashuno, Chamale, Opopanax
Kashuno (2): TMMadman, Opopanax
HiipFire (1): Kashuno, Kashuno, Ernie.
Rarity (1): fiery_valkyrie, Lumpen, Lumpen
TMMadman (1): Captain Foo, Captain Foo, Captain Foo
imgay (0): apostateCourier, apostateCourier
fiery_valkyrie (0): Ernie., Ernie.
LowellDND (0): Lumpen, Lumpen
Opopanax (0): Rarity, Rarity

Not Voting (7): Acebuckeye13, apostateCourier, Colonel Corazon, imgay, Kashuno, Lumpen, Someone Awful!

With 16 alive, it's 9 votes to lynch. The current deadline is September 15th, 2015 at 1 p.m. PDT -- that's in about 22 hours, 50 minutes.

What happens if we hit the deadline and don't have 9 votes on someone?

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Im seeing some vote drop off from Lumpen, and I just want to restate why I think that’s a bad idea. Lumpen has:

Introduced himself as unconfirmed mason, and tried to do the playful 'maybe I am and maybe I’m not.’ This is a sign of a guilty conscience. Furthermore, Lumpen tried to make alliance with Ernie, as scum are prone to do.

Not content with that, Lumpen made a comprehensive list of rules for newbies to follow (one of which he violated immediately, with his OMGUS vote of me). This shows both that he is trying to control the narrative, as well as further proof of a guilty conscience. He lists such things as ‘over defensiveness, overemotionally, flailing, and sucking up’, all of which have been seen in this thread.

This can be noted in a later post, when he argues that ‘townies need to talk, while scum stay quiet.’ This is obviously an indicator that he wants the town to think that, and works within that strategy to talk nonstop. As a scum, he thinks that this will show he is part of the town, but he doesn’t realize he has already revealed himself thereby.

Vote Lumpen.

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Interesting, we still have six who haven't voted.

apostateCourier
Colonel Corazon
imgay
Kashuno
Lumpen
Someone Awful!

They might bear watching. And oh hey, Lumpen is in the list.

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Still seeing a lot of spread out 1 and 2 votes. What say some of them move over to the 'Kill Lumpen' plan, so we can get someone knocked off on D1.

Also, couple people still haven't voted. Suspicious.

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





apostateCourier posted:

What's suspicious about not voting?

Means scum get a free round to kill town.

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Lumpen posted:

Hold up newb. Did you read this post? Respond to it.

Was thinking it over. You've convinced me.

##unvote

##vote Kashuno

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Im not sure about Opop, but a lynch day is better than not.

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Lumpen posted:

What about Opop makes you hesitate to lynch him? Nobody is "sure". At least you're around, that reflects well on you.

Haven't gone through all his posts with a focused interest. Ill do that now.

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Okay, sure. Lurker with a lot of one liners. Ill vote Opop if we're going that way.

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





And thats 9.

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





I thought Hiip was scum? Why are we switching to Opop?

(Not questioning Opop's guilt, more startled at the thread suddenly agreeing on Hip's innocence)

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Opopanax posted:

Keep reading

Oh, okay. He officially died already? Thought that was flavor text or some such.

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Is is normal to rack up a body count this fast?

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Let's wrap the day up I guess.

##vote opop

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Acebuckeye13 posted:

Actually, looking back at it I'm thinking Rarity is a pretty strong Scum candidate.

-Everyone she's fingered so far has been Confirmed Town

-Tried to get people to back off voting Opop on D1 (Who was confirmed Scum)

-Hasn't posted since Kash got murdered

Obviously none of this is a guarantee, but were the vote held right now I think Rarity would be the strongest choice, given all other factors.

That seems compelling.

##vote Rarity

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Acebuckeye13 posted:

Actually, looking back at it I'm thinking Rarity is a pretty strong Scum candidate.

-Everyone she's fingered so far has been Confirmed Town

-Tried to get people to back off voting Opop on D1 (Who was confirmed Scum)

-Hasn't posted since Kash got murdered

Obviously none of this is a guarantee, but were the vote held right now I think Rarity would be the strongest choice, given all other factors.

Captain Foo posted:

lowell, this is your only read in the entire game

Yeah, that’s fair. Day 2 was a bit of a shoo-in, as we had 6 votes when I was looking at the thread.

My reasons for suspecting Rarity: Started with a bunch of one liners, and then went hard for Lumpen (who was revealed to be town). Following that, they tended to be low content, skeptical of everyone, but not posting any effort posts. Instead, they simply went around asking people to give their own reads. Their second target was a town (who they didn’t give a read for, and showed little interest in it prior to their vote). And of course, they are now lurking. 'Ill post later, Im just tired and drunk right now.'

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





To me it reads like Rarity is trying to burn out the clock and not respond to accusations so someone else is marked for lead.

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





fiery_valkyrie posted:

We have plenty of time today. Deadline isn't for 3 (real life) days.

We've already observed a day end in 6 hours. The deadline isn't a hard one.

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Captain Foo posted:

who else do u find suspicious

Imgay seems to have been low content thus far. I'll ponder.

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





town
lowell

probably town
corazon
foo
ace

neutral
someone
f_v

maybe scum
cham
apostate

scum
rarity
imgay

Here's my current ponderings.

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Rarity posted:

So let's look at Lowell. He's also a newbie like Chamale and Ace, they all started the game quietly but unlike them he's still lurking on D3. And when he does post, what he posts has little of value.

This is the reason why relying on LumpenLists is a bad thing. This post is meaningless because we have no understanding of why people are in the positions Lowell has put them in. Lowell is using this list as a crutch to excuse himself from having to post meaningful content. Lists are only relevant when they are presented in the context of your reads (compare this post to mine and Lumpen's lists). All in all, Lowell reads like a player who is afraid of saying something wrong, afraid of doing something to get attention on him and afraid of being outed for what he is, scum.

##vote Lowell

I like how you voted for me after I voted for you :v: That's not sketchy at all.

Mostly this is my first game and I'm still trying to learn the ropes. As for the expansion on my list:

town
lowell

probably town
corazon - seems to have some good ideas and similar reads

foo - posts often, seems to be doing good analysis

ace - similar read as me when it comes to rarity, which is encouraging

neutral
someone - can’t get a solid read on them yet
f_v - can’t get a solid read on them yet

maybe scum
cham - flavor fishing, but that isn’t necessarily proof
apostate - something about them doesnt feel right, but Im waiting it out.

scum
imgay - seems oddly deffensive

rarity - My reasons for voting Rarity: Started with a bunch of one liners, and then went hard for Lumpen (who was revealed to be town). Following that, they tended to be low content, skeptical of everyone, but not posting any effort posts. Instead, they simply went around asking people to give their own reads. Their second target was a town (who they didn’t give a read for, and showed little interest in it prior to their vote).

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Rarity posted:

It's your first game, you don't even know what counts as sketchy yet :v:

So do you want me to lurk with low confidence, or aggressively make claims with no clue? :v:

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Like, I can spam posts with the best of them, but Id rather try to be thoughtful about it :v:

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Since you did ask.

Dead players

Ernie -Town
Hiipfire - Serial killer
Kashuno - Town
Lumpen - Town
Opopanex Scum
TMMadman - Town

With that in mind, we need to look at who Opop voted for, and who voted with them.

Opop voted Kashuno before dying.

People who voted to kill Kash include: Opop, apostate, Lowell, someone, imagay, chamale, rarity, fv, ace, and corazon

scum know scum, of course, so we can (tenatively) assume they won’t vote for scum. this means we can subtract the day 2 lynch (fv, lumpen, apostate, ace, corazon, foo, and myself).

This leaves us with ‘someone, imgay, chamale, and rarity’

Looking at current votes, we have 2 for chamale (somone and foo), and 2 for rarity (ace and myself). if we assume scum won’t vote for scum, that that puts higher likelihood of chamale not being scum, while someone is. this logic also plays with the prior hunches of imgay and rarity.

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Someone Awful! posted:

This is a faulty argument, why would you assume this? Since Scum need to look like not-Scum they absolutely might vote for one another or be on another scum teammate's lynch. Sure it's a factor to consider but blithely assuming "they voted Scum so they must not be Scum" is naive at best and at worst, a deflection from ~*your scumbros*~ on the lynch :v:

Well, obviously. But drawing conclusions from such a small data pool is problematic at best. Slapping on some faulty heuristics might at least point us in the right direction.

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Otherwise we go into things like 'no one can no anything conclusively' and base everything on the gut feelings. And we've lost 4 town doing it that way.

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





just based on initial patterns, Im seeing groupings of

corazon/foo/ace/me
and
someone/imgay/rarity.

with fv, cham, and apostate in the middle.

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Chamale posted:

I want to keep in mind that Rarity was the first to vote for LowellDND, while she was the voteleader and wanting to throw suspicion elsewhere. Of the others voting for LowellDND, I consider Someone Awful! fairly trustworthy so far, but ApostateCourier looks suspicious to me and I think Corazon's analysis above is drat good. So that's two suspect people and one probably-Town person voting for LowellDND. I want to hear how well LowellDND defends himself, but at this point I don't consider him a major suspect.

My analysis isn't as developed as other players (first game), but Apostate and Rarity were both on my suspect list, and following Rarity going lead she switched to me (and seems to have brought Apostate with her). I will completely agree that my vote closed the 2nd day (and was band wagoning as all hell), but it was my understanding that we wanted to stack up some bodies to get some data. In hindsight I probably would have been slower to close that vote, and probably done more analysis earlier on.

For day one, I was voting Lumpen until he persuaded me otherwise (pointing out how the mason thing worked etc), and then Kash because he seemed low content. I will note that nine other players agreed with me on that, so while I've made mistakes I've been in a lot of company.

At the current time, I do think Rarity is sketchy, and a lot of the current strategy appears to be 'no u' while rallying people to target me after I made note of her sketchiness.

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





my earlier thoughts:

maybe scum
cham
1) apostate

scum
2) rarity
3) imgay

now voting against me
1) apostate
2) rarity
3) imgay
someone awful

I think I struck a nerve :v: Increasingly sure I am on the right track. Someone, the colonel and I both have you tagged as non-scum, so please change your vote of me if you would :D

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Colonel no :( I thought we were friends.

Since Im the only one voting Rarity, Ill go for my second choice instead. I do think Rarity is scum, but that vote isn't happening today. So.

##unvote
##vote apostateCourier

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Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.





Colonel Corazon posted:

It's either you or AC baby today :smith:

Please convert me

okay, so. burden of proof means that I have to show a_c is more suspicious than myself, not necessarily show I am without suspicion. as the thread as shown, several players view my newb posting as disturbing. what I need to do, then, is show a_c as more so.

the first thing of interest is that a_c goes particularly hard for kash, who we know was town. following this, a_c spent her one shot cop early on, ‘at random’. however, the person chosen was hiipfire, the serial killer (who threatened scum just as much as town).

she then voted for opop, which could be viewed as going with the town train. as we remember, there were no other contenders, with opop getting ~10 votes. this means that one could ‘appear town’ without changing the effect of the vote.

finally, she tagged me shortly after I (and other thread members) marked her as likely scum. all of that shows a history of action that is self-benefiting for scum, while maintaining the facade of town.

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