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Comedians will bring back all the jokes they had about the TERROR level advisory.
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May 10, 2020 23:08
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https://i.imgur.com/ym53zzC.mp4
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May 10, 2020 23:35
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Like, just to make it clear, the idea of a nice ordered system is super useful for a public that is terrified out of its wits. New Zealand's 4-level system was probably the core part of why we're about ~100 cases away from not having covid in NZ anymore. The difference being NZ's system was introduced with clear, explicit explanations for what each level actually means and ramifications for what people are meant to actually do in each level. It wasn't a gradual meter from 1 to 4 with 4 being Scary and 1 being Less Scary and now we're wobbling between 2.85 and 2.87. It was a set of instructions, clearly meant to allow for the government to raise and lower explicit restrictions on specific regions as needed. 4 means we can't stop the virus, stay the gently caress home unless you have to go out, don't have any contact with anyone you're already not living with (with specific, mental health-conscious exceptions for vulnerable folks and those living alone), all the shops have to close unless they are essential 3 means we might have a handle on things, stay the gently caress home unless you have to go out but you can start to talk to family members and invite people over for small personal gatherings, all the shops have to close unless they can be made safe 2 means we actually do have a handle on things, stay the gently caress home but you can go out freely as long as you keep your distance from people, shops that can keep customer groups separated can probably re-open 1 means we got the blighter, everything's back to normal It was introduced on a Saturday with the explanation that NZ had been on 2 the whole time, which made sense, and helped calm things down and let people figure out how they'd deal with levels 3 and 4. Then the next Monday they announced the jump to 3 and explained it would stay there for two days before ramping right up to 4, so get your poo poo together, figure out how you're gonna be living for a while, make any big travel you need to make and do it now, and then hunker down. The announcement came with a really serious "yeah, this is gonna loving suck, we're all sorry but we also want everybody to live, so we're trusting you to take this poo poo seriously" message and famously the Prime Minister did a livestream from her home talking about how much it loving sucked and how tiring it all was and encouraging everyone to hang in there after level 4 hit. It was super nice for everyone living here, because we weren't talking about when covid would go away (it won't, and we kind of understand that), we were talking about when we would move to level 3 and then to level 2, and whether or not idiots would make us move back up to level 4. It forced a bunch of people to make some short sharp decisions- I had to decide whether to stick it out solo or live with my folks for a month and a half- and there was a lot of dark thinking for a while in there, but that's since been cleared up, level 4 loving worked, and now we're in level 3 and waiting for the announcement on what the move to level 2 is gonna look like.
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May 10, 2020 23:41
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Oh my god I'm catching up on the thread since not checking since Feb and ran into this.HerStuddMuffin posted:The flu kills an order of magnitude or two more, yearly, without the world freaking out. The coronavirus family causes a respiratory disease colloquially known as the common cold, that’s not my fault. HerStuddMuffin posted:My point isn’t that the flu kills orders of magnitude more every year, it is that it kills orders of magnitude more, every year, without every news organization and government in the world tripping over themselves to make it sound like the Black Death had Ebola’s love child. Lmbo reading this was already a big "oh no" but then this: HerStuddMuffin posted:Yeah, let’s just shelve the derail for a couple of months until the panic has died down and covid-19 has gone the way of SARS, the swine flu, and countless others before it. I’m sure the alarmist idiots will be very quick to congratulate themselves for stopping what undoubtedly would have been the next Spanish flu if not for their heroic efforts "A couple of months" it's so perfect I can barely handle it.
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May 11, 2020 01:31
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  Link
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May 11, 2020 01:32
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itskage posted:Oh my god I'm catching up on the thread since not checking since Feb and ran into this. I have to be honest, my first reaction upon hearing of the corona virus was the same. Changed pretty quickly, though.
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May 11, 2020 01:37
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Phlegmish posted:I have to be honest, my first reaction upon hearing of the corona virus was the same. Changed pretty quickly, though.
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May 11, 2020 01:44
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Phlegmish posted:I have to be honest, my first reaction upon hearing of the corona virus was the same. Changed pretty quickly, though. Yeah it's just nutty in hindsight. Nothing personal against herstuddmuffin.
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May 11, 2020 01:54
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I argued with HerStuddMuffin on that page and I feel like even I was a fool. All the evidence said that the pandemic would be a big deal, and I knew that, and I argued that, but I did not do as much as I could have to make preparations and to reach out to friends and family.
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May 11, 2020 02:06
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I bought a few N99 respirators with replaceable filters in January and my wife was pissed at me for wasting money on it at the time. It took 3 months but I got a sincere "you were right".
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May 11, 2020 02:26
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My friends called me crazy for stocking up on food in Feb. Of course, they probably think I'm crazy again, now, because asking people to play santized frizbee since the parks opened up here. Based on infection rates / hospital bed availability / deaths / etc I think this poses a very small risk to myself or others. People disagree and have their own way of dealing with all this, which is fine and good. It does irk me a bit that the friends that call me crazy now are the same that called me crazy for thinking this was going to be a big deal in the first place. It would be interesting to see some charts/graphs about Covid expectations. What % of people thought it was a big deal vs time, what level of precautions they're taking. Then broken down geographically and demographically.
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May 11, 2020 03:18
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A few months ago I posted some stuff in some thread or another about how the coronavirus wouldn’t be the end of the world. I probably downplayed it too much, but I don’t regret it because the main point of the post was to try to help someone who was in a bad place mentally and kinda freaking out about the then-upcoming pandemic. I hope they’re okay.
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May 11, 2020 10:22
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Angepain posted:https://twitter.com/jackmirkinson/status/1259546236551663616 Don't forget the totally incoherent way of determining the alert level: https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1259572964447653892
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May 11, 2020 10:27
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Qwertycoatl posted:Don't forget the totally incoherent way of determining the alert level: Some people have independently run the numbers on this and determined that on the provided scale of 1 to 5 the current alert level (R + current infections) is 219,183.6 That might be hard to fit on the chart
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May 11, 2020 10:41
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It's a very good alert measurement if you just want a meaningless, impossible-to-disprove metric that right wing newspapers can publish to reassure people, which is what it's for.
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May 11, 2020 11:12
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Red Bones posted:It's a very good alert measurement if you just want a meaningless, impossible-to-disprove metric that right wing newspapers can publish to reassure people, which is what it's for. Cheap to print on the front page. And the Nando’s tie in opportunities
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May 11, 2020 12:52
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itskage posted:Oh my god I'm catching up on the thread since not checking since Feb and ran into this. I remember SA as a whole was not really taking it seriously back then, with a whole lot of jokes about it.
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May 11, 2020 13:20
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Platystemon posted:I argued with HerStuddMuffin on that page and I feel like even I was a fool. Something you said at the time really stuck with me, and helped give me context when WHO declared an official pandemic: Platystemon posted:It’s like not helping the boy who cried wolf because he cried wolf month and didn’t get eaten. Nevermind that that’s because the village rallied to defend the boy and the wolf’s pelt is currently on display in city hall. There's the normal story about crying wolf. But what if the first, second, and third time, it's because there really was a wolf, and emergency services showed up and shot the wolf before it got past the edge of the forest? And now (a week after that post of yours), emergency services are officially saying "The forest is full of wolves. We're doing our best but cannot stop them. Don't leave your house unless you have to and do not go to the edge of town." (Post was on March 5, WHO declared a pandemic March 11.) I wasn't worried about this novel coronavirus because every previous time, the wolf was shot, and I could trust that our emergency services had things in hand. So I had to trust them when they made an official proclamation saying that I should be worried.
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May 11, 2020 14:33
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I don't know that anybody needs to feel bad about being on the "wrong" side or not doing enough if they were on the "right" back in January or February as long as you're on the measured social distancing side these days and take it as a lesson that sometimes the wolf reports are serious. It's not really the towns peoples jobs to look at news reports about wolves and come up with the correct wolf hunting plan. There's supposed to be huge data science apparatuses that should be looking at the wolf occurence so the people in charge can be doing things like making sure our wolf radar is attuned to newest type of wolf seen and buying better wolf guns when they see them. That allegory is getting kind of stretched huh.
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May 11, 2020 15:00
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Total Meatlove posted:Cheap to print on the front page. And the Nando’s tie in opportunities Just going out for a cheeky COVID.
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May 11, 2020 15:42
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Qwertycoatl posted:Don't forget the totally incoherent way of determining the alert level: so like right now the us level is something like 30000.0123
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May 11, 2020 17:35
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30000.0123 out of five, yes
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May 11, 2020 18:11
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thanks math!
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May 11, 2020 18:20
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Qwertycoatl posted:Don't forget the totally incoherent way of determining the alert level: I love the inclusion of R in that formula, absolutely not a negligible number compared to the number of infections.
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May 11, 2020 18:26
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It's a perfect storm of russling this threads jimmies because it's actually trying to say the alert level = f(R,n) in a way a nation that dropped out of school at 16 to work trades can understand.
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May 11, 2020 18:49
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By using + one of the few math operators they do know
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May 11, 2020 18:59
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zedprime posted:It's a perfect storm of russling this threads jimmies because it's actually trying to say the alert level = f(R,n) in a way a nation that dropped out of school at 16 to work trades can understand. Nobody has ever multiplied a number before, you must use addition which makes no loving sense in this context.
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May 11, 2020 19:42
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Fathis Munk posted:I love the inclusion of R in that formula, absolutely not a negligible number compared to the number of infections. I thought that perhaps R wasn’t the virus’s reproductive rate, but instead something more compatible with the scale of active infections, perhaps the number of new infections in the last week. Boris dispelled that misconception. https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1259572976657276935 Platystemon has a new favorite as of 20:06 on May 11, 2020 |
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May 11, 2020 20:03
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It's a total failure of schematic representation in all ways and putting a big blocky = R x n is wrong for a variety of other reasons and putting lipstick on a pig. To fix that communication: Cut out any hint it's a formula or involves mathematical operations at the start. Instead big title or statement "Alert level is based on number of infected and how fast people are being infected" The R gauge is a neat design for the explanation but for the love of graphing do not make it the same colors as the alert level scale in the following tweets Explain a little more about how R or n might fit in on the alert scale tweet because if anybody is still reading at that point they probably care enough to know the details and can probably read it in math notation.
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May 11, 2020 20:06
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To fix that communication, don't do it on a platform designed around the core principle of strictly limiting the amount of information you can deliver at once. Twitter is not a good platform for anything complicated or detailed, or indeed really anything important at all. Just about every part of it's function is exactly the opposite of what a government needs to communicate effectively with its citizens during a global crisis.
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May 11, 2020 21:41
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Deformed Church posted:To fix that communication, don't do it on a platform designed around the core principle of strictly limiting the amount of information you can deliver at once.
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May 11, 2020 21:53
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Count Roland posted:My friends called me crazy for stocking up on food in Feb. This doesn't answer everything, but 538 has a pretty good chart on how people felt about COVID over time. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/coronavirus-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo  March 8th was the day Very and Somewhat concerned overtook Not at All and Not Very. Even today though, you've got 30% of the population essentially unconcerned about it.
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May 11, 2020 22:13
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Deformed Church posted:To fix that communication, don't do it on a platform designed around the core principle of strictly limiting the amount of information you can deliver at once. I think it is being announced on platforms outside of twitter, tbf. They just broadcast it on every platform to catch as wide an audience as possible.
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May 11, 2020 22:15
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Not Very + Not At All < Somewhat, Very is amazing when you consider all the free advertisement they're getting for their dumb little protests in the media
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May 11, 2020 22:15
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223,060 + Some number possibly ranging between 0.5 and 0.9 = Yellow = Maybe easing restrictions? Or maybe not?
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May 11, 2020 23:06
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Absurd Alhazred posted:Nobody has ever multiplied a number before, you must use addition which makes no loving sense in this context. Well why would you multiply when you can add? 
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May 11, 2020 23:53
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mobby_6kl posted:Well why would you multiply when you can add? Multiplication is just addition for the lazy.
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May 12, 2020 00:15
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zedprime posted:It's a perfect storm of russling this threads jimmies because it's actually trying to say the alert level = f(R,n) in a way a nation that dropped out of school at 16 to work trades can understand.
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May 12, 2020 01:04
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Spoeank posted:Not Very + Not At All < Somewhat, Very is amazing when you consider all the free advertisement they're getting for their dumb little protests in the media It's not exactly favourable coverage they're getting. I'd find it very surprising if those protests had a measurable affect on these numbers.
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May 12, 2020 01:18
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Talkie Toaster posted:Well, except there isn’t an actual function there- it’s just saying ‘r and no of infections will decide when we reopen’ but dressing it up as A Science Equation rather than a political choice.
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May 12, 2020 01:23
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