|
Phlegmish posted:Also they don't care because corona is extremely unlikely to kill economically valuable people. I've already heard people say that the virus will end up saving millions in social security expenses, since it's mostly retired old people that are dying. Corona is just the externality du jour. Capitalism is what's been killing thousands for decades and nobody is stopping it
|
#
?
May 16, 2020 07:14
|
|
|
|
| # ? Apr 27, 2024 02:56 |
|
|
The Cheshire Cat posted:The "This will be just like after WW2!" people. Conveniently forgetting that the only reason the US got such a big postwar boost is because none of the fighting happened on their home soil and the European recovery was very much not "V+ shaped". Also America was already at the bottom of the worst recession in American history, there was no where to go but up. Where as now we are at the top of a market so inflated it's like watching a party balloon be inflated to the size of a blimp.
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2020 09:25
|
|
|
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2020 16:14
|
|
|
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2020 16:45
|
|
|
White Rock posted:Also America was already at the bottom of the worst recession in American history, there was no where to go but up. Where as now we are at the top of a market so inflated it's like watching a party balloon be inflated to the size of a blimp. So right now is the best time for a world war?
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2020 17:59
|
|
|
taqueso posted:So right now is the best time for a world war? World War Covid
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2020 17:59
|
|
|
Oh man. I thought it was awful, but not totally unforgivable. Then I noticed the dates.
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2020 18:19
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1261617759047254017?s=21 I’m the negative number of positive tests between March 50th and April 00st.
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2020 19:41
|
|
|
Phlegmish posted:Also they don't care because corona is extremely unlikely to kill economically valuable people. I've already heard people say that the virus will end up saving millions in social security expenses, since it's mostly retired old people that are dying. This is actually an interesting point, would a completely unmanaged epidemic actually be bad for the economy of a country like the USA? Presumably, most deaths would be unproductive people, which would free up informal care workers, such as children taking care of their parents, who would do work that actually "counts" in the economy instead (or at least consume more luxury goods, which probably had the same effect). The main counter I see world be the decreased demand on the housing market, but that gets complicated very fast. My point is obviously that "the economy" is a completely horrible measure of how good your society is. As an aside, given that the theory is not completely stupid (I await your expertise), it would have a lesser impact in Nordic countries, where care work is part of the formal economy.
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2020 19:54
|
|
|
A completely unmanaged epidemic would've taken out our hospital system, meaning that ordinarily survivable conditions like heart attacks, strokes, and trauma become lethal. We would be looking at millions dead in a fairly short time frame. If you're not sure whether that's bad for the economy, I don't think I can explain why it is.
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2020 19:58
|
|
|
Bobby Digital posted:https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1261617759047254017?s=21 Well, it sure feels like the past few months had over 50 days... And maybe the negative number of positive tests is really a positive number of negative tests? They cancel out like matter and antimatter, right?
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2020 20:00
|
|
|
I wouldn't expect tests done on April -1th to be positive
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2020 20:04
|
|
|
It's interpreting the date as an integer and trying to fit a smooth curve to the data.
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2020 20:18
|
|
|
taqueso posted:I wouldn't expect tests done on April -1th to be positive Ah yes, Nega-Fool's Day.
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2020 20:23
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1261629370726301696
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2020 21:30
|
|
|
The thing where the guy split the chart into two chunks and made separate linear trend lines was neat, but I think I can do better:  See, it's always going down now!
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2020 21:51
|
|
|
Bobby Digital posted:
To be fair, from the rest of the twitter thread this guy appears to be documenting his process of learning the programming language, so at least he has an excuse for making silly graphs.
|
|
#
?
May 17, 2020 01:44
|
|
|
This one was hurting my brain so I rearranged the bar graph by dates:  .... but it's still hosed up because the bars for the counties on each individual date is also sorted from highest to lowest instead of alphabetical. I'm starting to suspect that it wasn't a sneaky attempt to fudge the data and just some idiot accidentally pressing the "sort all to left" button before emailing the graph to the TV station.
|
|
#
?
May 17, 2020 06:01
|
|
|
Thank you for this, I heard it described on a news podcast last night but I couldn't for the life of me find it myself. It's magnificent.
|
|
#
?
May 17, 2020 10:28
|
|
|
Angepain posted:To be fair, from the rest of the twitter thread this guy appears to be documenting his process of learning the programming language, so at least he has an excuse for making silly graphs. Buddy that’s Matt Yglesias, famed dumbass
|
|
#
?
May 17, 2020 13:19
|
|
|
Ornamental Dingbat posted:Interesting way to note "no data" for Washington DC Honj Steak posted:No way the results would be that diverse. Im fairly sure this is again one of these “actually only looking at statistical fluctuation and then making up everything” maps. I agree that it's almost impossible to get these results if you just ask "which is more popular in this state?" If you did that you would probably just get a map that says 'Breaking Bad' or 'Tiger King' for every state. I assume what they do is use some sort of overrepresentation function, looking at biggest positive deviation from the mean for a given state. So let's say 10% of customers in Montana have seen Dark, vs 5% of customers in the general US, and the relative difference between those two is bigger than the relative difference between any other show in Montana vs the whole US, that is the show you print for Montana. Dark is a german show, maybe there are more people of german encestry there, which would explain it (I'm european so i wouldn't know).
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2020 09:08
|
|
|
kanonvandekempen posted:Dark is a german show, maybe there are more people of german encestry there, which would explain it (I'm european so i wouldn't know). Real stab in the... dark, but Dark and Lost in Space have these rugged survival elements. Maybe that's why they appeal to people in Montana and Wyoming? Gilmore Girls for North Dakota doesn't quite fit that model.
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2020 09:55
|
|
|
Or it could just be a marketing stunt to put a bunch of shows they want you to think about in a chart and hope people share it.
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2020 12:24
|
|
|
kimbo305 posted:Real stab in the... dark, but Dark and Lost in Space have these rugged survival elements. Maybe that's why they appeal to people in Montana and Wyoming? No, it’s because nobody lives in those states and they have very little data split hundreds of ways and so the per capita “representation” stat that was mentioned earlier is super noisy for small states and DC so tiny differences in absolute numbers correspond to huge shifts in rankings. the choice of metric is just way more important than any geographical pattern
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2020 15:12
|
|
|
Everyone is talking about Gilmore Girls now, strange coincidence
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2020 16:32
|
|
|
Tree Goat posted:No, it’s because nobody lives in those states and they have very little data split hundreds of ways and so the per capita “representation” stat that was mentioned earlier is super noisy for small states and DC so tiny differences in absolute numbers correspond to huge shifts in rankings. the choice of metric is just way more important than any geographical pattern Surely there's >10k NF users in each of those states? More than enough to make a legit statistical determination?
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2020 21:10
|
|
|
kimbo305 posted:Surely there's >10k NF users in each of those states? More than enough to make a legit statistical determination? No idea how many Netflix subscribers there are in each state who had active accounts during the data collection period. I think there's 70 million in the US, total? No idea how many that is in small pop states. But there are tons and tons of Netflix titles, and each person will watch only a handful of them. The difference in places on the rankings, especially in the smaller states, and especially after whatever normalization or standardization scheme they are using, might be a matter of very few watches in the grand scheme of things, well within whatever bounds of uncertainty you'd like to generate. Without the raw numbers I'd be very hesitant to start telling stories about geography producing a signal here.
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2020 21:31
|
|
|
it's just like those "which search terms/halloween candy are most popular in state/county/country" maps, they are more a product of their methodology than any robust trend. you've got large numbers of people, sure, but with preferences split thousands or tens of thousands of ways and then normalized despite widely varying population sizes, so you pretty much just get garbage
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2020 21:33
|
|
|
Womp womp.
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2020 23:05
|
|
|
How am I to understand that? Libs don't have friends or family obviously. And UKIP is probably a class thing, with working class people being more likely to die from the virus. Also possible some toxic masculinity thing about not going to the doctor?
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2020 14:39
|
|
|
Now they actually have a good reason for wanting to close the border.
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2020 14:41
|
|
|
BonHair posted:How am I to understand that? Libs don't have friends or family obviously. And UKIP is probably a class thing, with working class people being more likely to die from the virus. Also possible some toxic masculinity thing about not going to the doctor? I think UKIP skews older too, which explains a lot of it. I don't know how they're measuring UKIP voters either because a lot of them joined around the referendum and then left for the tories in the 2019 election, so the data might be distorted by only representing really die hard old UKIP voters who stuck with it in 2019.
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2020 15:07
|
|
|
Death rates all over the world are very heavily skewed to older people. I think age of party members would play a much bigger role than anything else there.
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2020 15:44
|
|
|
BonHair posted:This is actually an interesting point, would a completely unmanaged epidemic actually be bad for the economy of a country like the USA? Presumably, most deaths would be unproductive people, which would free up informal care workers, such as children taking care of their parents, who would do work that actually "counts" in the economy instead (or at least consume more luxury goods, which probably had the same effect). Source your quotes
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2020 16:05
|
|
|
Men are twice as likely to die from Covid compared to women.
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2020 16:36
|
|
|
Red Bones posted:I think UKIP skews older too, which explains a lot of it. I don't know how they're measuring UKIP voters either because a lot of them joined around the referendum and then left for the tories in the 2019 election, so the data might be distorted by only representing really die hard old UKIP voters who stuck with it in 2019. Also this is happening everywhere, but there was a recent UK-specific study showing that Covid mortality, like everything else in unequal hyper-capitalism, skews heavily along existing lines of inequality and deprivation: quote:Using a Culture Based Development (CBD) spatial analytical approach (see Tubadji 2012, 2013), we explored COVID-19 mortality rates across England and Wales in the early part of the pandemic (3 January 2020 to 27 March 2020). We show that the early part of this pandemic seems to have disproportionately affected the economically and socially vulnerable. Most vulnerable to COVID-19 appear to be groups of citizens who were previously subject to unconscious economic and cultural discrimination in areas that are known to be ‘left behind’. Our results suggest that the effects of cultural (ethnic) discrimination on mortality due to COVID-19 is five times greater than the economic effect, and deaths were 19 percentage points higher in pro-Brexit areas. Places that voted strongly for Brexit tended to be "left behind" places, and it's those same places that are worst-hit by something like Covid. It's not a surprise that Brexit voters are more likely to know someone who's died.
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2020 17:13
|
|
|
Honj Steak posted:Men are twice as likely to die from Covid compared to women. OK, but they didn't ask if the respondent had personally died from covid, although I guess most men have more male than female friends.
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2020 17:45
|
|
|
Phlegmish posted:OK, but they didn't ask if the respondent had personally died from covid, although I guess most men have more male than female friends. I'd like to see the results of that survey question.
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2020 18:00
|
|
|
Y'all are overthinking it, a couple people have already called out the overriding factor. UKIP is mostly old people, coronavirus mostly kills old people, peoples' friends tend to be their own age.
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2020 19:24
|
|
|
|
| # ? Apr 27, 2024 02:56 |
|
|
Also given how UKIP's entire reason for existing is basically irrelevant now, the membership has probably shrunk to the point where most of them know each other, so a single person dying would register much higher in the statistics of "someone I know died of COVID".
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2020 19:41
|
|
