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Benne posted:So what you're saying is that the MAC is cool and good yeah the MAC fuckin' owns
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Nov 16, 2015 04:29
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Yoshifan823 posted:Since most of the big boy conferences are already sewn up and don't have the opportunity for Tiebreaker Madness (the Big 12 is pretty drat close though), here's what you should be cheering for if you want to see a division have five different teams at 5-3 in the division: Not as fun, but if Stanford can lose to Cal and Washington State and Oregon win out, the Pac-12 North would be in a 3-way tie with each team having a win and a loss vs the other teams.
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Nov 16, 2015 05:42
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An even more unrealistic one could put all of the top four teams in the Big 12 at 7-2, though it would require TCU beating Oklahoma next week and Baylor dropping a game to Texas. I think that would result in Oklahoma State being the champ, because it would drop the two with embarrassing losses (OU/Baylor) and of the two remaining, OkSt beat the poo poo out of TCU. SEC West is gonna be fun to watch over the next couple of weeks. I'd say aside from Vandy/A&M, all of the games not involving Bama are still very up in the air, and if my dreams come true and Auburn beats Bama, it's thrown into a shitshow. Bama should be cheering for Ole Miss to lose, just in case.
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Nov 16, 2015 06:10
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Maxwells Demon posted:Not as fun, but if Stanford can lose to Cal and Washington State and Oregon win out, the Pac-12 North would be in a 3-way tie with each team having a win and a loss vs the other teams. C'mon Sonny, get Leach his 2nd ever division championship! (Who would win tiebreakers there?)
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Nov 16, 2015 06:14
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DJExile posted:yeah the MAC fuckin' owns
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Nov 16, 2015 06:32
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In fact, I'd like to create something I like to call THE CHAOS SCENARIO: The Regular Season ACC: Clemson wins their final two regular season games and enters the ACC Championship game undefeated. North Carolina drops their final game to NCSt, but because of their tiebreaker win against Pitt, they are still the champions of the Costal Division. Big Ten: OSU beats Michigan State, and an incredibly fired up Michigan team led by Jim Harbaugh upsets Urban Meyer and the Buckeyes, thus taking the Big Ten East. Iowa wins out and takes the Big Ten West without incident. Big Twelve: Oklahoma somehow loses to TCU. Oklahoma State loses out. Baylor beats OkSt and TCU, but Texas pops up at the end of the season and surprises them. This means Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and TCU all end the season 10-2, 7-1 in the conference. Pac12: Stanford loses to Cal, beats Notre Dame. Oregon and WSU win out. The North ends in a three way tie between the three. Oregon is ranked highest in the polls, so they go to the CCG UCLA beats Utah, which combined with Oregon beating USC means that the final week's USC/UCLA game will decide the winner of the South, as Utah would have losses to both. SEC: Bama loses to Auburn in the final regular season game. Ole Miss wins out. Arkansas beat Mississippi State this coming week, meaning that their game will decide the SEC West championship with a twist. If they win, Alabama is the Division Champ. If they lose, Ole Miss takes it. They take one for the team and job to Mizzou, meaning Ole Miss wins the SEC East Florida loses to FSU, still wins the SEC West. AAC: Temple wins out, wins the AAC East. Navy wins out, wins the AAC West. Notre Dame: Beats Boston College, loses to Stanford CUSA: This won't be that chaotic. MAC: Toledo wins out. NIU loses to WMU, giving Toledo the MAC East. Bowling Green wins out. Mountain West: They've beaten themselves up too much to be relevant here. Sun Belt: See CUSA That brings us to Championship Week, where the following things happen: AAC: Navy beats Temple ACC: North Carolina beats Clemson by a couple of touchdowns. Big Ten: Michigan beats Iowa at the last second. MAC: Toledo beats Bowling Green. Pac 12: USC gets their revenge on Oregon by a TD. SEC: Ole Miss beats Florida, but it's close. Where does that put everyone? Well... No undefeated teams remain. No one loss teams are champions of their division, except Toledo and Navy. Iowa and Clemson would have one loss, but that loss came in the championship game, and Houston and Ohio State would have been tied in conference play to the eventual conference champions, but their one loss came to that team, so they weren't Division champs. The four teams in the Big 12 all have two losses each, but because Baylor/Oklahoma's were to a lovely Texas team, OkSt is declared the champion, despite having lost to both OU/Baylor in the season. The Pac-12 Champion is 10-3 USC, with Utah, UCLA, Stanford and WSU sitting at 9-3 and Oregon at 9-4. The SEC Champion is 10-3 Ole Miss, with Florida at 11-2 after the CCG, and Bama at 10-2. Who do you put in the Playoffs? (an asterisk signifies a conference championship) 12-1: Iowa, Clemson, Navy* 11-1: Ohio State, Houston, Toledo* 11-2: North Carolina*, Michigan*, Western Kentucky* 10-2: Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Bama, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Florida State, Wisconsin, Appalachian State 10-3: Ole Miss*, USC*, Florida, Temple, SDSU* 9-3: Pitt, Northwestern, Stanford, Washington State, UCLA, Utah, Georgia, Texas A&M, Memphis, Marshall, BYU, Arkansas State* 1: Navy 2: Michigan 3: Iowa 4: Ohio State
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Nov 16, 2015 06:59
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kayakyakr posted:C'mon Sonny, get Leach his 2nd ever division championship! http://pac-12.com/article/2014/11/06/pac-12-football-championship-game-tiebreaker-explanation Looks like it would go down to #3, record against next-highest standing team, which would be Cal with 4+ conference wins. Both Stanford and Wazzu would have lost to Cal, and Oregon beat them so Oregon gets the nod.
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Nov 16, 2015 10:52
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Maxwells Demon posted:http://pac-12.com/article/2014/11/06/pac-12-football-championship-game-tiebreaker-explanation drat, that means there's no way for Wazzu to win the division at this point. Sorry Wheez, we tried.
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Nov 16, 2015 17:53
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The true chaos scenario for the Big Ten East is: Ohio State loses to both Michigans. Penn State beats both Michigans. Four way tie, argue until the end of time. The decision would survive down through the first five tiebreakers. Depending on how the polls fall, it would slip all the way down to #7. A coin toss.
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Nov 16, 2015 17:57
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Out of morbid curiosity, where does a 9-3 Notre Dame end up? Russell Athletic Bowl?
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Nov 16, 2015 18:31
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John Rawl Tahd posted:Out of morbid curiosity, where does a 9-3 Notre Dame end up? The playoffs
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Nov 16, 2015 18:40
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kayakyakr posted:drat, that means there's no way for Wazzu to win the division at this point. Sorry Wheez, we tried. All Washington State had to do was kick a field goal just like the 5 they had already made.
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Nov 16, 2015 18:46
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Sash! posted:The true chaos scenario for the Big Ten East is: Uh, wouldn't they just say "well Penn State and Michigan state both have non-conference losses, we drop them and Michigan State goes since they beat OSU"?
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Nov 16, 2015 19:59
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Maxwells Demon posted:Not as fun, but if Stanford can lose to Cal and Washington State and Oregon win out, the Pac-12 North would be in a 3-way tie with each team having a win and a loss vs the other teams. I thought I read the tie-breaker would be won by Oregon since they'd be 4-1 in the Pac-12 North games whereas Stanford & Wazzu would be 3-2 in the North games (both losing to Cal). *confirmed by the tie-breker #2 Record in intra-divisional games
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Nov 16, 2015 20:36
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Yoshifan823 posted:Uh, wouldn't they just say "well Penn State and Michigan state both have non-conference losses, we drop them and Michigan State goes since they beat OSU"? Apparently, that doesn't matter. Unless I'm misinterpreting things, the first four tiebreakers are all related to in conference play. Overall winning percentage is Tiebreaker 6. It seems to go head to head, in division record, in division record based on order of finish, record against common conference opponents, polls, THEN out of conference record, then random draw. Sash! fucked around with this message at 21:22 on Nov 16, 2015 |
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Nov 16, 2015 21:20
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Sash! posted:Apparently, that doesn't matter. Unless I'm misinterpreting things, the first four tiebreakers are all related to in conference play. Overall winning percentage is Tiebreaker 6. In your scenario you have Penn State 2-1 (beat both Michigans) Michigan St 2-1 (beat OSU and Michigan) OSU 1-2 (beat Penn State) Michigan 1-2 (beat OSU) So OSU and Michigan are eliminated, and now you have a two-way tie which Penn State takes by head-to-head. You'd need a 3-team or 5-team tie to get past the head-to-head tiebreaker.
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Nov 17, 2015 01:49
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Oh, I know it stops being a four way pretty early on. I just want to see them have to sort it out.
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Nov 17, 2015 03:32
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Tank44 posted:I thought I read the tie-breaker would be won by Oregon since they'd be 4-1 in the Pac-12 North games whereas Stanford & Wazzu would be 3-2 in the North games (both losing to Cal). *confirmed by the tie-breker #2 Record in intra-divisional games Right you are sir. My bad. So still Oregon, and for pretty much the same reasoning.
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Nov 17, 2015 03:47
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Thanks to USF beating Temple, it's now possible for them to win the American. All that needs to happen is - - Another Temple loss, which might come this weekend vs Memphis. Also they play UConn, whatever. - USF wins out, their slate is a very meh CIncinnati team and UCF, whom will be looking for a perfect season. - USF then wins the AAC East and then promptly kick the winner of Houston-Navy in the balls. At this point, some conference champion has to be the G5 rep. Nobody's likely to be in the neighborhood of a ranking, which means it comes down to the CFP committee to decide. As they don't generally give a gently caress about the Group of 5, this decision will probably take place in the elevator coming out of the building as everyone's getting the hell out of there. So, looking at the backup candidates - AAC - Assuming the scenario above, USF has two top 25 wins. They also beat Syracuse out of conference. They're also 9-4. That's not good. CUSA - Western Kentucky may happen at 11-2 if BG or Toledo don't win the MAC. Marshall would also be 11-2 but didn't play any P5 out of conference, and the loss to Ohio is not a good look. An upset champion out of CUSA West (Louisiana Tech or Southern Miss) will have at least four losses and that's also not good. MAC - If Toledo wins out they have the best shot of anyone outside of Boise State. The committee has already showed they overvalue the Arkansas victory and they'd have wins over the likely Sun Belt champ Arkansas State, Iowa State, and Bowling Green. Bowling Green is Western Kentucky with a better resume at 11-2....at 10-3 that gets murkier. Northern Illinois would have an infamous name and at least three losses. MWC - If Boise State wins the Mountain West, the committee will just rank them 25th and get out the door. San Diego State would have run the conference table which is impressive, but their OOC losses weren't that close and anyone not Boise tends to get lost in the shuffle. Air Force is the same case but would absolutely be the backup Navy  option. New Mexico can technically win the MWC but nobody will take them seriously. Also your inheritance was given to Donald Trump, sorry. Sun Belt - I think to get a committee to even remember the Fun Belt exists would involve a 12-0 team and it's hard to do that and be someone's September cupcake. So, I think the order of preference might be - 1. Boise State 2. Toledo 3. Bowling Green 4. USF 5. Western Kentucky 6. Air Force 7. San Diego State 8. Marshall 9. Everyone else I mentioned.
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Nov 17, 2015 21:04
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I thought I heard Navy stands a decent chance at being the G5 rep. Is USF that much stronger? Or are they not expected to beat Houston?
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Nov 17, 2015 21:08
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DJExile posted:I thought I heard Navy stands a decent chance at being the G5 rep. Is USF that much stronger? Or are they not expected to beat Houston? It's almost certainly going to be Navy or Houston in the G5 spot unless crazy poo poo like korranus describes happens.
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Nov 17, 2015 21:13
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DJExile posted:I thought I heard Navy stands a decent chance at being the G5 rep. Is USF that much stronger? Or are they not expected to beat Houston? Navy does indeed stand a chance at being the G5 rep. But as they're not independent anymore - they're in the American now - they have to win their conference like every other team. That means beating Houston to make the championship game at all. As for USF, if they can beat Cincinnati (certainly doable) and UCF, all they need is another loss from Temple (who hosts Memphis this weekend and I think Memphis wins) and both USF and Temple would be tied at 6-2. USF wins the division as they own the head-to-head tiebreaker. What I'm saying is it's not a foregone conclusion Temple is your AAC East winner. In fact, if I had to bet I'd bet on USF now. As for USF being stronger, they're on a roll but in the AAC title game USF would look like a Christian thrown to the lions. It ain't like Houston hasn't choked that away before.
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Nov 17, 2015 21:23
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Jesus christ I 100% forgot Navy joined the american 
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Nov 17, 2015 21:29
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DJExile posted:Jesus christ I 100% forgot Navy joined the american Only school to have never lost a conference game! 
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Nov 17, 2015 22:00
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MAC West chaos update: With Toledo beating BG, they still need help. Toledo needs NIU to lose at least one of their last 2 games, then must beat WMU next week. Toledo gets an extended week and plays WMU at home on Black Friday at noon. There will be a crowd measured in the tens. If NIU wins out (vs. WMU, vs. Ohio), they will either be tied at 7-1 with Toledo and own the head-to-head tiebreaker, or Toledo will be 6-2 and NIU goes through on record. WMU has two very tough road games (@NIU, @Toledo) to finish the season. If they win both, they're in. Tonight's WMU/NIU game will determine a lot and should be a fun one. 8PM Eastern on ESPN2. DJExile fucked around with this message at 12:53 on Nov 18, 2015 |
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Nov 18, 2015 12:51
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Here's my (second and hopefully less mis-guided) attempt at placing some bowls - ACC + Notre Dame - Clemson wins over North Carolina. Notre Dame beats Stanford. Clemson in the CFP. pre:Clemson 8-0 13-0 Florida State 7-1 10-2 Louisville 5-3 7-5 NC State 3-5 7-5 North Carolina 7-1 11-2 Pittsburgh 6-2 8-4 Duke 5-3 8-4 Miami (FL) 5-3 8-4 Virginia Tech 4-4 6-6 Notre Dame 11-1 pre:Ohio State 8-0 13-0 Michigan State 6-2 10-2 Penn State 5-3 8-4 Michigan 5-3 8-4 Indiana 2-6 6-6 Iowa 8-0 12-1 Wisconsin 6-2 9-3 Northwestern 5-3 9-3 Illinois 3-5 6-6 Minnesota 2-6 5-7 Nebraska 3-5 5-7 pre:Oklahoma 8-1 11-1 TCU 7-2 10-2 Baylor 7-2 10-2 Oklahoma State 7-2 10-2 West Virginia 5-4 8-4 Texas Tech 3-6 6-6 Texas 4-5 5-7 Kansas State 2-7 5-7 pre:Stanford 8-1 9-4 cougs bitch 7-2 9-3 Oregon 7-2 9-3 California 3-6 6-6 Utah 7-2 11-2 USC 6-3 8-4 Arizona State 5-4 7-5 UCLA 4-5 7-5 Arizona 3-6 6-6 Washington 3-6 5-7 pre:Florida 7-1 12-1 Tennessee 5-3 8-4 Georgia 5-3 9-3 Alabama 7-1 11-2 Ole Miss 6-2 9-4 LSU 5-3 8-4 Texas A&M 4-4 8-4 Mississippi St 4-4 8-4 Arkansas 4-4 6-6 Auburn 2-6 6-6 Kentucky 2-6 5-7 Missouri 2-6 5-7 American - Navy beats Houston, then loses to USF. Xort smiles. pre:South Florida 6-2 9-4 Temple 6-2 9-3 Cincinnati 4-4 7-5 Navy 8-0 11-2 Houston 7-1 11-1 Memphis 6-2 10-2 Tulsa 3-5 6-6 pre:Marshall 7-1 11-2 Western Kentucky 6-2 8-4 Middle Tennessee 6-2 7-5 Florida International 4-4 6-6 Old Dominion 4-4 6-6 Southern Miss 7-1 9-4 Louisiana Tech 6-2 8-4 Rice 4-4 6-6 pre:Bowling Green 7-1 10-3 Akron 5-3 7-5 Buffalo 4-4 6-6 Ohio U 4-4 7-5 Toledo 7-1 10-2 Northern Ill. 6-2 8-4 Western Mich 6-2 7-5 Central Mich 6-2 7-5 pre:Boise State 6-2 9-4 Air Force 6-2 8-4 New Mexico 5-3 7-5 San Diego State 8-0 9-4 Nevada 5-3 7-5 pre:Appalachian State 7-1 10-2 Georgia Southern 7-1 9-3 Arkansas State 7-1 8-4 Louisiana-Lafayette 5-3 6-6 Clemson and Ohio State are no-brainers. So is Alabama given they haven't lost since Ole Miss. #4 comes down to Oklahoma, Iowa, and Notre Dame. I'm saying the CFP gives this one to Oklahoma given they're the Big 12 champion, but this could absolutely be Notre Dame because old men have money. The Big 12 probably doesn't melt down. pre:Orange #1 Clemson #4 Oklahoma Cotton #2 Alabama #3 Ohio State Obviously, the Rose takes Pac 12 champ Utah and Big 10 runner up Iowa. The Sugar takes runners up from the Big 12 - Oklahoma State and Florida. The Peach thanks god they can dump the G5 slot on the Fiesta and takes Notre Dame and Florida State. Catholics vs Criminals rides again. The Fiesta takes Michigan State over North Carolina in hopes of getting more hotel rooms booked. As for the G5, the CFP committee just stays in the American and gives it to USF considering they had just beaten two top 25 teams in three weeks. pre:Peach Notre Dame Florida State Fiesta South Florida Michigan State Rose Utah Iowa Sugar Oklahoma State Florida pre:Alamo Oklahoma State Stanford Arizona UTEP Nevada Armed Forces Air Force Cal Bahamas Marshall Akron Belk Duke Auburn Birmingham Old Dominion Ohio U Boca Raton Cincinnati Western Michigan Cactus Arizona State Texas (5-7) Camellia Northern Ill. Georgia Southern Citrus Wisconsin Georgia Cure App State Florida International Foster Farms Indiana Washington State GoDaddy Bowling Green Arkansas State Hawaii Houston BYU Heart of Dallas Rice Texas Tech Holiday Michigan Oregon Independence Buffalo Miami (FL) Las Vegas San Diego St UCLA Liberty West Virginia Arkansas Miami Beach Memphis Western Kentucky Military Navy NC State Music City LSU Virginia Tech New Mexico Louisiana Tech New Mexico New Orleans Southern Miss Louisiana-Lafayette Outback Northwestern Tennessee Pinstripe Louisville Penn State Poinsettia Toledo Boise State Potato Colorado St Central Michigan QuickLane Illinois Akron Russell Ath North Carolina Baylor St. Petersburg Tulsa Middle Tennessee Sun Pittsburgh USC TaxSlayer Miss. State :effort: Texas TCU Texas A&M dirty shrimp money fucked around with this message at 15:05 on Nov 19, 2015 |
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Nov 18, 2015 16:16
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Korranus posted:Here's my attempt at placing some bowls - Oklahoma would be 11-1 were they to win out as you have described. You have Alabama with 2 losses in conference when they currently only have one. Ole Miss cannot win the SEC West without Alabama losing to Auburn, which isn't going to happen. An 11-1 Big XII Champ OU gets into the CFP over a 2 loss Florida or Alabama, even if one of the losses came in the SEC championship game. You have BGSU as 8-0 in conference, and they are not. e: also you have WVU jumping Baylor for the Russel Athletic. And the Liberty Bowl is less likely to put together a TTU/Arkansas rematch. I think you missed Mississippi State in your bowls as well. kayakyakr fucked around with this message at 16:38 on Nov 18, 2015 |
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Nov 18, 2015 16:25
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kayakyakr posted:You have BGSU as 8-0 in conference, and they are not. Yeah BG's 6-1 in conference now. If they win vs. Ball State and win the MAC Championship, they'll be 10-3 overall.
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Nov 18, 2015 16:28
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kayakyakr posted:Oklahoma would be 11-1 were they to win out as you have described. You have Alabama with 2 losses in conference when they currently only have one. Ole Miss cannot win the SEC West without Alabama losing to Auburn, which isn't going to happen. An 11-1 Big XII Champ OU gets into the CFP over a 2 loss Florida or Alabama, even if one of the losses came in the SEC championship game. Yea, that's all kind of glaring. Updated accordingly. See if everything is put together right now...my brain is kinda mushy from working with all these teams. I may not do this again. As for BGSU, I was ignoring yesterday's game for simplicity's sake but it turns out it doesn't affect anything to include it as it doesn't affect my title game.
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Nov 18, 2015 16:56
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Korranus posted:Yea, that's all kind of glaring. Updated accordingly. Yeah last night was meaningless in the big picture. It helps Toledo a little but they still need NIU to drop a game.
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Nov 18, 2015 16:57
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Does that mean you have Notre Dame losing to BC this weekend, Korranus?
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Nov 18, 2015 17:33
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John Rawl Tahd posted:Does that mean you have Notre Dame losing to BC this weekend, Korranus? As hilariously awesome as that would be, I just can't count.
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Nov 18, 2015 18:08
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Korranus posted:Yea, that's all kind of glaring. Updated accordingly. See if everything is put together right now...my brain is kinda mushy from working with all these teams. I may not do this again. Now you've got Oklahoma both in the playoff and in the sugar bowl.
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Nov 18, 2015 18:54
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Korranus posted:The Peach thanks god they can dump the G5 slot on the Fiesta and takes Notre Dame and Florida State. Catholics vs Criminals rides again. Why does the Fiesta seem to always get the last choice and stuck with the G5 team? I guess it kind of makes sense if the MountainWest rep went to the fiesta but why not the Peach for the American/USA champ?
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Nov 19, 2015 00:38
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I dunno. Why does the G5 team always win? Real answer? They host the semi every three years via Wikipedia- quote:The Fiesta Bowl will host a semifinal alongside the Peach Bowl again in 2019, 2022, and 2025.
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Nov 19, 2015 02:09
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Tank44 posted:Why does the Fiesta seem to always get the last choice and stuck with the G5 team? I guess it kind of makes sense if the MountainWest rep went to the fiesta but why not the Peach for the American/USA champ? I'm guessing it's set up that way in all the agreements that lets the CFP exist, and someone had to go last. Given all the corruption exposed with the Fiesta Bowl's management they may have been forced to take that last spot to stay a major bowl. It seems the picking order is Sugar, Rose, Orange, Cotton, Peach, Fiesta. The Peach Bowl can pick the G5 if they want to though, and in fact I'd expect Navy or Houston to be at the Peach if they get the G5 bid. There were reps from ESPN and Chick-Fil-A in Houston last Saturday. dirty shrimp money fucked around with this message at 15:06 on Nov 19, 2015 |
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Nov 19, 2015 14:58
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Korranus posted:I'm guessing it's set up that way in all the agreements that lets the CFP exist, and someone had to go last. Given all the corruption exposed with the Fiesta Bowl's management they may have been forced to take that last spot to stay a major bowl. It seems the picking order is Sugar, Rose, Orange, Cotton, Peach, Fiesta. There's no picking anymore, the CFP assigns (with input). So these bowls get what they get and will like it.
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Nov 19, 2015 17:32
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With NIU beating WMU last night, WMU is officially out of contention for the MAC West title. If NIU beats Ohio next week, they're in. If they lose, then it gets interesting. If NIU somehow loses to Ohio, and Toledo beats WMU, then Toledo goes to the MAC Championship. If NIU and Toledo both lose, then I think NIU still goes through anyway. If WMU loses to Toledo, they face the possibility that they may not even go to a bowl, as they'd be 6-6 and .500 MAC teams have been left out before.
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Nov 19, 2015 18:58
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goddammit quote is not edit e- might as well make this a useful post. 18 teams still have a chance to become eligible: ACC-VT B1G-IND-NEB-MINN-ILL B12-UT-KST(need 2 wins) P12-UW SEC-UK-MIZZ AAC-ECU-TULSA CUSA-ODU MAC-BUFF MWC-SJSU SB-USA-ULL-GST (last two need 2 wins) C. Everett Koop fucked around with this message at 08:14 on Nov 22, 2015 |
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Nov 22, 2015 07:59
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Tech's destiny to play A&M in either the Texas or Liberty Bowl has not been altered in my mind. WVU dropping one of their next two games or TTU beating UT in Austin on Thursday will solidify that.
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Nov 22, 2015 08:13
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