Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
How many states will legalize Cannabis in the 2016 election?
0
1
2
3
420
5+
View Results
 
  • Locked thread
Patter Song
Mar 26, 2010

Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.
Fun Shoe
I thought Florida was just going for medicinal, not for legalization.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

will a weed usa pressure japan to legalize all weed?

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Nonsense posted:

will a weed usa pressure japan to legalize all weed?

east asia will probably be the last few countries on the planet to legalize anything

glowing-fish
Feb 18, 2013

Keep grinding,
I hope you level up! :)

Patter Song posted:

It's way too early to predict, because we don't have the final list of states with referenda. Even if you start out with Vermont as a gimme, 5 would be Maine, Massachusetts, California, and (most likely) Nevada. What would 6 be, Arizona?

4 is optimistic but hardly out of reality. 5 is difficult, but possible (Nevada, of all places, wouldn't want to be one of the few states in the West that DIDN'T have legal pot). 6 is pushing it.

And for this, Vermont isn't even counted, since this is about electoral legalization, not legislative legalization. Which perhaps some people voted without reading all my fine stipulations.

glowing-fish
Feb 18, 2013

Keep grinding,
I hope you level up! :)

Agnostalgia posted:

You wouldn't really expect a bell curve here, the 5+ option includes everything from 5 to 20 states or however many are actually having initiatives so it would include the summed values of the entire right tail.

But yeah its probably just people being optimistic.

Its currently 14.

It could be more or less, depending on what goes through.

Still, it is kind of like if I had a poll and I said "enter your height" and I included one inch increments until I got to 6'6"+, and there was an equal amount of people who were over 6'6" as were 5'9", that would be a little unusual. Basically not all of these measures are equal.

Grand Prize Winner
Feb 19, 2007


So how is weed going to get elected? What is its platform?

What are its foreign policy planks?

Shark Sandwich
Sep 6, 2010

by R. Guyovich

Grand Prize Winner posted:

So how is weed going to get elected? What is its platform?

What are its foreign policy planks?

Hotbox the entire Middle East and hold a peace summit/drum circle

Xelkelvos
Dec 19, 2012

Patter Song posted:

I thought Florida was just going for medicinal, not for legalization.

It is only Medicinal and it's a super limited one at that. Only five growers iirc, and only for one particular strain to be prescribed as a last resort measure.

The Legalization amendment didn't get enough signatures to go on the ballot (https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_Cannabis_Act_(2016))

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Aliquid posted:

east asia will probably be the last few countries on the planet to legalize anything

TBF we've always been at drug war with Eastasia.

Broken Machine
Oct 22, 2010

The French Army! posted:

...
New Hampshire and Vermont are both good prospects for legalization via legislature before the election.

Vermont, sure, but not New Hampshire. We just got a hugely restrictive medical law passed a few years ago (that hasn't even started even though it was supposed to last year), and haven't even decriminalized it at all yet. The Senate probably wouldn't pass it, and the governor would probably veto legalization anyway. NH is way behind the rest of New England as far as weed. I'm hopeful about Vermont though, and Mass, maybe Maine. Just one of those states going legal in the Northeast would make a big difference.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Maine will need to wait until the next election because their governor is a piece of poo poo. Dunno if MA's governor would veto legislative legalization.

GonadTheBallbarian
Jul 23, 2007


Aliquid posted:

Maine will need to wait until the next election because their governor is a piece of poo poo. Dunno if MA's governor would veto legislative legalization.

e. It's a ballot initiative. Gov. Baker can't veto it.

GonadTheBallbarian has issued a correction as of 22:55 on Jan 12, 2016

fat bossy gerbil
Jul 1, 2007

Broken Machine posted:

Vermont, sure, but not New Hampshire. We just got a hugely restrictive medical law passed a few years ago (that hasn't even started even though it was supposed to last year), and haven't even decriminalized it at all yet. The Senate probably wouldn't pass it, and the governor would probably veto legalization anyway. NH is way behind the rest of New England as far as weed. I'm hopeful about Vermont though, and Mass, maybe Maine. Just one of those states going legal in the Northeast would make a big difference.
I meant Rhode Island, my bad.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

I spent some time living in Federal Hill and there were hydro shops springing up left and right, they must have a pretty liberal MMJ system up in RI.

GonadTheBallbarian
Jul 23, 2007


Oh poo poo, my apologies; I was unaware there was a legislative bill up in MA independent of the ballot initiative.

Text of H.1561

If that passes, Baker almost certainly vetoes it, but there's nothing he can do if the CRMLA bill passes with a simple majority.

But uh, if he vetoes that... he's as good as gone in the next election.

glowing-fish
Feb 18, 2013

Keep grinding,
I hope you level up! :)

WugLyfe posted:

Oh poo poo, my apologies; I was unaware there was a legislative bill up in MA independent of the ballot initiative.

Text of H.1561

If that passes, Baker almost certainly vetoes it, but there's nothing he can do if the CRMLA bill passes with a simple majority.

But uh, if he vetoes that... he's as good as gone in the next election.

There is quite a bit that governors and legislatures can do if they want to. Oregon, Washington and Colorado could have dragged the whole thing through the courts or saddled it with regulations. In most cases, they chose not to. There is a good chance that at least in one state that legalizes through initiative, it will be blocked in the legislature or the courts.

Dr.Mrs.The Monarch
Aug 8, 2005

Obamunist Troll Bot: Built to bring a One World Government to the People
M

Dr.Mrs.The Monarch has issued a correction as of 07:58 on Mar 29, 2016

redreader
Nov 2, 2009

I am the coolest person ever with my pirate chalice. Seriously.

Dinosaur Gum
I live in CA and I feel like it's not going to happen here. Even medical MJ got enough pushback last time. I just don't think people here are ready for it. Most people I know, yes, but CA as a whole, no. Just my feeling though, not backed by polls. Are there any polls on this?

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

redreader posted:

I live in CA and I feel like it's not going to happen here. Even medical MJ got enough pushback last time. I just don't think people here are ready for it. Most people I know, yes, but CA as a whole, no. Just my feeling though, not backed by polls. Are there any polls on this?

If weed legalization has overtaken prohibition in the polls nationally, consistently holding a majority, how do you figure it's worse in California?

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003

in 2010 it came 3.5% short of a 50% yes vote. that's a midterm with fewer young liberals showing up, indeed one of the strongest conservative wave elections in history, PLUS the attorney general said he would sue california if they voted yes. even in that environment it didn't fall very far short

with a presidential electorate and a clear precedent for states not getting sued after they legalize and regulate recreational marijuana i think the extra 3.5% can be found

if you look at the polling it was getting 50%+ before turning negative in october, although tbf googling indicates that the first negative poll from early october seems to have predated eric holder's statement
https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_19,_the_Marijuana_Legalization_Initiative_(2010)#Polls

the prison industry is quite strong in california which makes for an interesting counterpoint to the general 'california loves weed and is liberal' argument, i'll be interested to see if the prison guard unions and counties with lots of prison jobs and stuff start throwing up 'vote no' advertising so they can keep getting thrown scraps of the profits gleaned by their betters from the institutionalized brutalization of the urban poor

edit: in june 2015 a poll came out 54% would support ending prohibition with the number rising to 56% after screening for likely voters. it's not a landslide sort of number - apparently another thing worth considering is opposition from latinos, 60% of whom opposed it in that poll. margin of error around 4%
http://www.ppic.org/main/pressrelease.asp?i=1784

so it's not a slam dunk, looks like

oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 08:51 on Jan 24, 2016

redreader
Nov 2, 2009

I am the coolest person ever with my pirate chalice. Seriously.

Dinosaur Gum
Thanks Oystertoadfish, I didn't know any of that stuff. Very informative!

glowing-fish
Feb 18, 2013

Keep grinding,
I hope you level up! :)
I haven't checked this thread, and the links to ballotpedia, but apparently there are now 17 different possible legalization measures in California. I think that is more than last time.

I wonder if stoners are all like "lets get a legalization measure on the ballot!" and just totally forgot that they already did that, last week.

GonadTheBallbarian
Jul 23, 2007


Could be a Massachusetts like deal where there's all sorts of different philosophies to implementing it.

There's a few big money interests that are looking to use these laws as a way to guarantee 0 competition from the get go.

Lord of Pie
Mar 2, 2007


In a surprising twist, Arkansas finally let another MM proposal get past the "gently caress off your title is too ambiguous" phase to the signature gathering part. If one makes it to the ballot, it has a good chance of passing since the last one was only 51-49 against.

quote:

Following Attorney General Leslie Rutledge approving a marijuana proposal for the first time since taking office, there are now two medical marijuana petitions circulating. There are several differences between the newly approved Arkansas Medical Marijuana Amendment of 2016 and the Arkansas Medical cannabis Act; one of the big differences is how the sales tax would be distributed.

The Arkansas Medical Marijuana Amendment of 2016 will need to gather nearly 85,000 from registered voters; the Arkansas Medical Cannabis Act will need to gather around 68,000 to make the ballot.

The Arkansas Medical Marijuana Amendment of 2016 includes:
-setting a max fee for dispensary and cultivation licenses, no cap for patient card fees.
-create a Medical Marijuana Commission
-Department of Health sets the rules for cards and additional qualifying medical conditions
-Alcoholic Beverage Control sets operating rules for dispensaries and cultivation facilities.

Sales tax breakdown:
10 percent would go back into the program.
10 percent to the Skills Development Fund
30 percent to General Revenue Fund
50 to Vocational and Technical Training Special Revenue Fund

Meanwhile, the Arkansas Medical Cannabis Act, that's been gathering signatures since 2014 after former AG Dustin McDaniel approved it, already has more than 57,000 signatures.

The Arkansas Medical Cannabis Act includes:
-setting a max fee for dispensary and cultivation licenses and patient card fees
-Department of Health sets rules for cards and additional qualifying medical conditions

Sales tax breakdown:
All sales tax revenue collected goes back into the program.

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003

glowing-fish posted:

I haven't checked this thread, and the links to ballotpedia, but apparently there are now 17 different possible legalization measures in California. I think that is more than last time.

I wonder if stoners are all like "lets get a legalization measure on the ballot!" and just totally forgot that they already did that, last week.

i saw this article a while back, apparently they narrow it down to 4 likely ones and really they're making it sound like the first one has all the momentum
http://legacy.abc10.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/01/13/here-4-measures-competing-legalize-marijuana-california/78637816/

quote:

Legalization advocates told ABC10 there won't be more than one measure by November, but as it stands now, the field has refined itself from the 18 initiatives (so far) filed with the state to about four.

Though it's likely you won't face all four measures in the voting booth, you could be confronted with them while proponents gather signatures in the coming months.

that's from january, i don't really know if things have changed since then

Rogue Copter Pilot
Apr 12, 2005

a dead whale or a stove boat

Brocialist posted:

Could be a Massachusetts like deal where there's all sorts of different philosophies to implementing it.

There's a few big money interests that are looking to use these laws as a way to guarantee 0 competition from the get go.

the establishment in MA has begun their huge push against legalization, and i'm starting to feel very nervous about it actually passing in this dumb commonwealth that gets worse every drat year

luckily i work in RI and drive past an MMJ place every day, so I'm much more hopeful about li'l rhody.

ate shit on live tv
Feb 15, 2004

by Azathoth
I really dislike the medical baggage being tied to something 99% of people use for recreation.

Unless there is politician purging language tied to the medical weed proposals, I don't call that "progress" at all.

The Glumslinger
Sep 24, 2008

Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?


Hair Elf

oystertoadfish posted:

i saw this article a while back, apparently they narrow it down to 4 likely ones and really they're making it sound like the first one has all the momentum
http://legacy.abc10.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/01/13/here-4-measures-competing-legalize-marijuana-california/78637816/


that's from january, i don't really know if things have changed since then

Well, the Lt governor, Gavin Newsome, just backed one of them, so that is probably the front runner

http://blog.sfgate.com/smellthetruth/2016/03/22/gavin-newsom-endorses-legal-marijuana-initiative/

GonadTheBallbarian
Jul 23, 2007


Powercrazy posted:

I really dislike the medical baggage being tied to something 99% of people use for recreation.

Unless there is politician purging language tied to the medical weed proposals, I don't call that "progress" at all.

ok

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003

The Glumslinger posted:

Well, the Lt governor, Gavin Newsome, just backed one of them, so that is probably the front runner

http://blog.sfgate.com/smellthetruth/2016/03/22/gavin-newsom-endorses-legal-marijuana-initiative/
looks like the stars are aligning for AUMA, an acronym californians should expect to hear a lot of this year

it seems like they made a lot of compromises early in both directions and as a result they've got the LG and NORML onside. this is how the weed legalization people operate, now that they're a real political presence like any other lobby. in the world of people who actually get people with potpourri in their pockets out of jail sentences instead of just whining, that is how referenda are passed and progress is effected

Bloody Queef
Mar 23, 2012

by zen death robot

Powercrazy posted:

I really dislike the medical baggage being tied to something 99% of people use for recreation.

Unless there is politician purging language tied to the medical weed proposals, I don't call that "progress" at all.

First, many people have a legitimate medical need that marijuana fulfills so it's best to move as rapidly as possible to help those people because it's an easier sell.

Second, medical has been the first step towards recreation for all the recreational states.

GonadTheBallbarian
Jul 23, 2007


Have there been any new polls for any of the states with legalization measures on the ballot this November?

Patter Song
Mar 26, 2010

Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.
Fun Shoe
Decided to check what will be on the ballot. There's STILL a lot we're not sure about.

California, Nevada, and Maine will definitely be on the ballot, along with Florida medicinal. Arizona and Massachusetts will almost definitely be on the ballot.

Still possible are Arkansas, Michigan, North Dakota, Missouri medicinal, and Oklahoma medicinal.

By the end of next month we should be able to make a good final list of which states will have referenda.

thethreeman
May 10, 2008
Fallen Rib

Brocialist posted:

Have there been any new polls for any of the states with legalization measures on the ballot this November?

CA may not be the most exciting state for big changes, but I've been following it a bit - this poll from May had the most data I've seen in a long time:
http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/Crosstabs_LikelyVoters0516.pdf

page 33 for marijuana questions

in general, a majority of almost every demographic subgroup they poll - every region, old and young, educated and not, both genders, all ethnic groups, etc - prefer legalization by a majority, except: (1) republicans/conservatives, and (2) non-native born residents, but both of those groups are significant minorities

R. Guyovich
Dec 25, 1991

Aliquid posted:

east asia will probably be the last few countries on the planet to legalize anything

dprk has legal weed 420 biotch ss

GonadTheBallbarian
Jul 23, 2007


CA officially on ballot, and Maine too

GonadTheBallbarian has issued a correction as of 23:02 on Jun 29, 2016

Bloody Queef
Mar 23, 2012

by zen death robot

I'd really like to see Maine succeed. Not just for the people of Maine, but so maybe recreational isn't just some West coast hippy crap to people over 40.

Now yeah, they'll write off Maine as full of weird hippies, but most on the east coast respect Maine more than Oregon.

GonadTheBallbarian
Jul 23, 2007


I'm hoping it makes the Boston cabal of cockknuckles back off trying to get the measure thrown out. If they know it's futile, here's to hoping.

ate shit on live tv
Feb 15, 2004

by Azathoth

Bloody Queef posted:

most on the east coast respect Maine more than Oregon.

What does this mean?

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Bloody Queef
Mar 23, 2012

by zen death robot

Powercrazy posted:

What does this mean?

There's a fair amount of us vs them attitude with East coast and west coast. Did you not know this?

  • Locked thread