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Bifauxnen posted:We already are ya dingbat yeah i mathed it up
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Jan 19, 2016 01:43
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Seagull posted:then again same thing for if we ever lynch wrong again As Bif and I have already explained. If we lynch wrong now - we lose
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Jan 19, 2016 01:44
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##vote no lynch
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Jan 19, 2016 01:46
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##vote no lynch
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Jan 19, 2016 01:47
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##vote no lynch
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Jan 19, 2016 01:49
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But don't we already have a pretty good chance of hitting scum if it's 3 scum of say 5 or 6 suspects? that's a 50+% chance. I'm most likely town from bulletproof, Bif is confirmed, Slip is confirmed, so by my logic 3 out of 5 suspects are scum, (bowmore, Gwynplaine, Infinitum, Seagull, Venom) If we no lynch today, scum could just kill me, Bif or Slip and the same 5 suspects would remain.
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Jan 19, 2016 01:49
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Anidav posted:But don't we already have a pretty good chance of hitting scum if it's 3 scum of say 5 or 6 suspects? that's a 50+% chance. bulllllshit and your talkign pretty good vs us losign the game and I'm not taking the risk yiure not most likely town period id vote for you in a heartbeat
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Jan 19, 2016 01:57
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If you think I'm town we have a 75% chance of hitting scum if you think I could be scum we have a 50% chance of hitting scum. The best case scenario is the odds in our favour, the worst case is a shot in the dark 50/50. inaction just puts the ball in their court, if we're already contemplating giving them a free night without any consequence for them then we've already lost.
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Jan 19, 2016 02:00
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Anidav posted:If you think I'm town we have a 75% chance of hitting scum holy poo poo
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Jan 19, 2016 02:02
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Anidav posted:But don't we already have a pretty good chance of hitting scum if it's 3 scum of say 5 or 6 suspects? that's a 50+% chance.
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Jan 19, 2016 02:07
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Jan 19, 2016 02:07
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I know I'm town, I know bif is town and I know slip is town, assuming 3 scum are left that's a 75% chance of lynching a scum out of the remaining pool. Why are we throwing these odds away, we've already lynched Birdstrike by going through the list. and I think Tirade deducted there's a 80-90%(?) chance of a second scum being on the list. Anidav Birdstrike SKY COQ Venom Soag Beetphyxious Bifauxnen iajanus Tirade posted:Yup. To put it another way, there's a greater than 80% chance that there's at least two scum on that list. bowmore posted:so are you bulletproof or lynchproof! lynchproof, sorry.
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Jan 19, 2016 02:10
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Statistics literally point to Venom being scum.
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Jan 19, 2016 02:11
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Anidav posted:I know I'm town, I know bif is town and I know slip is town, assuming 3 scum are left that's a 75% chance of lynching a scum out of the remaining pool. Why are we throwing these odds away, we've already lynched Birdstrike by going through the list. and I think Tirade deducted there's a 80-90%(?) chance of a second scum being on the list. Because if we mislynch today we lose just as hard as if we mislynch tomorrow! So why not give ourselves one more chance to whittle down the list or catch scum with night action something or other! And why are you going on about that list bullshit which I already debunked, if you are town you are gonna lose this game cause I'm gonna vote for you just outta spite 
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Jan 19, 2016 02:12
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But no matter what we do, scum will not kill out of that pool of 5 and we lose a town so we have the same odds with less voting power(convincing power). 3/5 no matter today or tomorrow.
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Jan 19, 2016 02:15
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There is no change in "voting power". The situation remains the same: ALL LIVING TOWN must vote correctly in agreement!
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Jan 19, 2016 02:16
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Anidav posted:Statistics literally point to Venom being scum. 
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Jan 19, 2016 02:17
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I feel like a no lynch is very very pointless.
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Jan 19, 2016 02:18
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Word up for next game, if I go with the "Machiavellian" Celestial Ludemberg gambit again,this is why
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Jan 19, 2016 02:18
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Also Anidav didn't read my math analogy I worked so hard on, this hurts my feelings. 
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Jan 19, 2016 02:20
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Disregarding Tirade's statistics, we still have a 75% chance.
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Jan 19, 2016 02:22
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Anidav posted:I feel like a no lynch is very very pointless. Anidav your lofic would just have cost is the game I can't believe your that dumb
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Jan 19, 2016 02:23
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For real though, I think bowmore is scummier than Anidav for basing it on little more than "whoooah what if he was a lynchproof godfather man"
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Jan 19, 2016 02:28
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I just want to nail scum, the urge is strong and a no lynch is the direct opposite of this urge.
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Jan 19, 2016 02:29
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If we don't have the discipline to avoid loving up LYLO tomorrow, we do not have it for today either. The chances of anything changing tomorrow are slim. But for someone yammering on about the stats so much you should want to grab that slim chance.
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Jan 19, 2016 02:32
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So a 75% chance to hammer scum from a 5 person pool vs a very slim chance this 75% chance will change? I'm just trying to convince myself for town's sake.
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Jan 19, 2016 02:35
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They'll probably go for me as the confirmed one (or FS who's the closest) so our odds don't actually change. I don't know if we have any powers left to gently caress up their plans and reveal new insight tomorrow. But we might as well find out cause if there's 3 scum we're just as dead if we mislynch today.
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Jan 19, 2016 02:38
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I would rather take the chance now where we all have time to discuss the chance whereas tomorrow we have one less voice.
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Jan 19, 2016 02:39
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Even you seem to agree that we are surrendering a voice for practically nothing.
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Jan 19, 2016 02:41
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Bowmore and seagull gone whisper quiet during this fracas btw
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Jan 19, 2016 02:44
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this isbt time to be takign it easy
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Jan 19, 2016 02:45
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Jan 19, 2016 02:46
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Venom Soag posted:Bowmore and seagull gone whisper quiet during this fracas btw there's nothing more to add - bif's correct that ultimately it's best to wait it out
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Jan 19, 2016 02:50
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actually does anyone have ideas about how the lovers thing happened is toml just loving with us and some have secret things or do you think someone has a power that did that
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Jan 19, 2016 02:51
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Seagull posted:actually does anyone have ideas about how the lovers thing happened like makign two people lovers as a power?
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Jan 19, 2016 02:55
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Venom Soag posted:like makign two people lovers as a power? yeah because if a town has done that inopportunely or if scum have that power (unlikely since that'd be a ridiculously powerful set up) we could potentially lose by not lynching alternately we could be guaranteed a loss in general because they hosed it and tied a town to a scum again
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Jan 19, 2016 02:58
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Seagull posted:actually does anyone have ideas about how the lovers thing happened Actually yeah, this is a good point, this might be a good time for the massclaim stuff Beet's always going on about. Unless I totally missed it, correct me if I did, bowmore has never claimed poo poo and Gwyn has only jokeclaimed(?) Lynchbomb. Not gonna push Inf just get though.
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Jan 19, 2016 02:59
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The most popular lynch option today was me, to get hammered by bif. The result would be two dead town. Of course anidav is pushing for a lynch, still.
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Jan 19, 2016 02:59
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Just yet* Most interested in bowmore and Gwyn's claims
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Jan 19, 2016 02:59
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So you're claiming you were serious about the lynchbomb, huh? I find this a bit suss in a game with the whip stuff and lots of modkill potential AND a lovers power already flipped, maybe that's your real power.
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Jan 19, 2016 03:01
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