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Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


I'm in.

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Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


In a game where we could be facing two town deaths a night I don't think putting our most valuable pieces in front, even a little, is a winning play on Day 1.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


Tommunist posted:

if gulag can claim why can't you

A mass claim might--might--help the town narrow down D1 lynch odds. An individual power claim is completely nutso, as it ensures you're almost certainly going to die that night or the next, and either way you could just get roleblocked, and a vanilla claim just helps the scum aim a little better and gives the town no info because of course a scum would claim vanilla town.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


Tommunist posted:

i was not being serious and do not support a mass claim

I figured. To be honest, if I started making dumb jokey posts I'd come off as really artificial so I might as well be the boring serious one for people to play off of.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


100YrsofAttitude posted:

Is it that bad of a vote? I don't agree with gulag but he thinks that you're attacking someone who is blatantly town. Saying that other people share your perspective is particularly weak in such a binary issue.

I just finished running a game online for my friends. At least he's not basing his vote off of the number of letters in a name.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


Why is Billy a ninja? How is Billy a ninja? Can we roll that into his custom BSG character somehow?

Also just letting you all know right now if the Doctor dies and I inherit I'm going to say "Winter is Coming" over and over until I get lynched. You have been warned.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


Friction.123 posted:

what the gently caress do we even know on day 1.

We know our own roles and the distribution of other roles, for one. There's fifteen other players. Assuming a given player is town, that means that person has a 5/15 or 1 in 3 chance of voting for a scum by sheer blind chance. We also know there's a serial killer about, so Mafia are going to be a little more aggressive about going for lynches instead of no-lynches, since every night that goes by is another chance that one of the Mafia gets shot. Therefore, anyone who votes a little too aggressively on someone with too little evidence is a bit more likely to be scum, and thus you can up your voting odds from 33% to 33% plus how sure you are this person's a scum based on these votes. It's not an exact science, but saying you don't know anything because it's day 1 (presumably because there's no flips or investigations) is not taking the time to stop an engage with the math and mechanics.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


Based on these votes, post, whatever.

For my own opinion I don't have much thought yet, but there's 24 hours to deadline. I don't think Cog is scum based on the massclaim idea.. It's possible it's a double bluff "hey guys let's out the town" or a triple bluff "hey let's look like I'm trying to be an eager young space cadet outing the scum so I can blend in" but that's not an actual play, that's something you make up for gaming_shit_that_didnt_happen.txt. I'm not super sold on that though so if he is pulling something like that, more power to him.

I don't think enough people have made enough serious posts to have any worthwhile opinion thus far.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


Metos posted:

[quote="Trasson" post="455686928"]
We know our own roles and the distribution of other roles, for one. There's fifteen other players. Assuming a given player is town, that means that person has a 5/15 or 1 in 3 chance of voting for a scum by sheer blind chance.
1 in 3 of choosing a Mafia by blind chance is still a 2 in 3 of choosing a Town, buddy.

Oh dear god, no, I'm not saying we should vote by blind chance. Friction asked what it was we knew. I was simply explaining what it was that was known. When did I say voting by random chance was a good idea?

Asiina posted:

I definitely think Trasson is scummy though.

Care to explain why? I mean, I could guess, but I'd rather hear your reasoning.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


Asiina posted:

Using a whole bunch of words to say things that are completely obvious. Moreso in an open setup. Everything you said was in the OP. It gives the appearance of contributing without actually saying anything useful.

I would have responded with "but who is scum tho" except your next post was a very hedgy town read on Cog and then complaining that you can't form an opinion on anyone else because there haven't been enough posts, despite other people having no issue making reads. Scum want to be more flexible in their reads so they can turn whichever way the wind blows. Town are more likely to let their opinions on people be known.

Eh, I see your point, although I'll note the giant pile of "obvious" was in response to someone saying "what do we even know", so I figured I'd start with the obvious (since I think Friction is just as new to this as me). Also, to be honest, the 10 posts/game day thing kind of encourages me to say whatever, even if it's unhelpful. Regardless of whichever team I'm on, having one fewer vote to be lynched doesn't help them so I might as well vomit out whatever.

As for not enough posts, well, you're right. It feels like not enough information to make any sort of good judgment call off of, especially because more than a third of the players haven't even hit the ten post limit yet. Except that group includes me (just counted, this makes 9) and more experienced players aren't having trouble making calls on me with that small information set so even if I don't feel it's enough info I shouldn't let it stop me. I will try and be a little more decisive come tomorrow IRL (sleep, school, and work lie between me and good posting time after this), but at least there won't be any excuse for me to not have enough info when we get close to the deadline. I mean, regardless of if there's enough info or not, as it gets close to 7 PM, beggars can't be choosers, right?

Lumpen posted:

You didn't ask me, but...
Yes, do guess, at length. :allears:

Basically what Asiina said: I've made a whole lot of noise that amounts to "I have no idea what's going on but I want to participate!" which doubles as a great way to try and fly under the radar.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


Yeah, between that and "I don't like giving out lists of who I think is town, it makes targeting easier for the scumteam" (which is like, what? You're town, you want to try and figure who's on your side and who isn't, consequences be damned) and then giving out a list of people anyway, it feels like you're throwing out a big neon sign saying "DON'T TRUST ME"

But then both me and Friction feel that way which feels like a point against that logic since we're both new so now I'm not so sure on that but a;dfhaidsuhfaidsuh.

Detailed thoughts on others coming in a bit.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


Alright, so the big thing to go off of: TheCog's massclaim plan and reactions to it. There's likely other useful data, but I'm going to just concentrate on this subset since I feel it's a good place to start, although I'm sure there's lots to criticize.

Gulag is the first one to show support for it, and continues to do so even after everyone else is like "Umm, no.".

A bit later, Flying Leatherman comes out in support of the motivation of his plan though not the actual idea.. Some other people had said his plan's a bad one but at least town intentioned, but FL is a little more direct in supporting TheCog as Town, and even calls out the plan post as, paraphrasing, reminding [FL] of his content posts [when he was town].

Lumpen then asserts that, as the setup designer, a D1 massclaim in any way would be a bad idea. I think this is legit: aside from the prevailing wisdom in the thread, Lumpen has no reason to lie: if he's town, he wants to tell the truth. If he's scum, he wants to look town.

Cog then responds saying he believes an open setup is there to be broken and that he'd let the idea rest since there wasn't enough support. He then goes on to defend the massclaim plan. He also outs himself as being an experienced player, but new here. This was known secondhand (to me, at least; I might have missed a post from him on it), but this is a confirmation of that fact.

Concerning Operation Masslcaim, King Burgundy finally shows and comes out with soft support but has no issues waiting until later, while Friction.123 chimes in with a distilled version again condemning the idea, but respecting the thought behind it.

TheCog makes his second defense of his plan after saying he'd drop it in response to Kashuno's outright statement that attempting to solve by claim at this point would be scummy.

TheCog then makes another post on voting for someone off of a rule of thumb heuristic. Kashuno comes out and condemns MassClaim and backs it up with a vote. We then get TheCog Defense #3 after saying he'd let his plan rest. Some more back and forth ensues, with TheCog claiming he'd willingly trade a cop for a scum. Gulag chimes in with agreeing with the plan but backsteps, calling Cog out on expending effort defending a plan that won't happen. A couple of followup comments about Gulag not caring if the power roles survive are made. 100yrs agrees that power roles are support for winning, not the victory methods.

Friction votes Gulag, and Gulag again comes out in support of massclaiming. He also thinks pineapple on pizza is merely okay, so he's scum based on that alone, but let's continue to be objective.

We'll skip ahead a few pages of TV discussion and small debates on whether or not Friction/myself are scum, as it's not the topic I'm looking at here.

100yrs comes out with a soft defense of gulag, a read on some other people, and then votes for imgay with no reasoning given. Later, he posts his reasoning: based on a meta read of how imgay has played as scum/town. Cog chimes in with a defense of imgay based on a couple of games he looked at; 100yrs brings up some others. A bit later he gives a final read on imgay, Friction, and Metos, standing by his vote.

Then we get to the recent bits I addressed in my last post.


So, what do I takeaway from this?

Cog stood a little too strongly behind his plan even after saying he'd drop it. He's either dedicated or stupidly stubborn, no matter which side he's on. If he were full on new I'd give him the benefit of the doubt but if half the board (which by definition must include townies) is saying they think your plan sucks defending it is not how you look good. He's either scum gone rogue, the SK, part of a smokescreen for the other scum, part of a really hail mary scum plan, or just an eager young space cadet promising kittens and rainbows. My preference is towards SK: he has a vested interest in trying to out as much of both sides as possible, consequences be damned. Note his insistence on the power/not power claim, and his surety that the Mafia would claim power. The scum claiming power is bad for them, for exactly the reasons Cog keeps saying. He doesn't care, though! If the town claims their power then most of his job is done for him. If the Mafia are dumb enough to counterclaim power then he's got an easy coast to victory. Additionally, as the SK, he'd have a hard time of things scoring victory; more than anyone the SK has an interest in a longshot play.

Gulag is also in a lot of support for Plan Massclaim, and is the only one to show unconditional support. This is weird if they're both scum, but if Cog is SK then Gulag could be scum and potentially reap the benefits of the claim. As town the play makes little sense: why are you coming out so hard in favor of what most feel is an antitown play? That just makes your position worse when arguing for who's scum. Of course, the same goes for if he's scum, so that's a wash. Gulag being scum fits, but if he flipped town I wouldn't be completely surprised.

100yrs is also in defense of the plan but sends his votes in a different direction. As someone pointed out, there's plenty of content to make use of. Why make a meta vote? Cog is against it, and brings up previous games, and 100yrs brings up even earlier games. This is suspiciously convenient if and only if they're both Mafia; it's merely coincidental otherwise. As much as I'd like to say 100yrs is scum based on this, I don't have enough backing it up.

If pressed I'd go and give a look at some other players but at that point I'd probably just be looking for evidence to fit a narrative (I mean, even more so than this looks). Based on the above I'm feeling most strongest on TheCog as scum, but I'll certainly keep an open mind as deadline approaches. Nevertheless, I shall put my money where my mouth is in the meantime:

##vote TheCog

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


By the way, I'm sure someone more experienced is going to call all of that out as wrong, but hey, bad opinion better than no opinion, right?

Which I guess is a defense of Thecog, but....eh. Gotta make a choice at some point.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


Lumpen posted:

Trasson, JakeP, Asiina, Kashuno, Friction.123, AnonymousNarcotics, Metos, Tommunist, Captain Foo, GulagDolls, I summon you and demand you give me 3 names of people you are willing to contribute to lynching today.

:siren:3 hours and 30 minutes remain!:siren:

The three at the end of my last post will do.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


AnonymousNarcotics posted:

This post is full of a lot of words disguised as content. The first half of the post is just a rundown of things that happened with no analysis or reads.

The second half is full of hedging.




That's what scum do - make reads but leave the door open to back out of them if it makes them look better.

First two are hedging, yes. I'm not sure, but thinking in that direction.

I did not mean Cog as hedging. I mean him as "I think he's scum but if I need to switch my vote somewhere else so we can hammer someone scummy rather than sit there going nyah nyah I think you're wrong/my choice is better/whatever let's no lynch then I will".

Hilariously I meant to be more decisive on that one exactly because of your earlier statement on my hedging.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


Oh and the first half of my wall of text was more for reference benefit as opposed to useful content. I was compiling what happened re: Cog's plan to reference as I looked it over anyway so figured I'd just have it in my post since why not?

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011



Can I change a suspicion to you just to make Jakep feel lonely?

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


I'm fine with voting Gulag.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011



Type fast!

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


##vote Gulag

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


Lumpen posted:

##Vote: Trasson
D1 newbie shield is now off.
Trasson, in addition to the series of Scumposts yesterday, lurked around deadline. Was there to vote the claimed Cop at the last minute, but didn't contribute anything or reveal he was even around to discuss anything until those last few minutes. Go back and re-read Trasson's D1 posts, he is Scum.

Lumpen posted:

2 minutes, -1

Do not believe his lies.

Lumpen posted:

HAMMER IS NOT DOWN


Yells at me for voting a claimed cop when he's yelling at people to vote a claimed cop?

For the record, I was on my phone and not entirely sure what I would do. In the time it would take me to post any sort of thought, deadline would have hit. I "lurked" until the deadline because I was waiting for as much information as possible. Gulag claimed cop but there was no way we were getting enough votes for anyone else (at least I thought so at the time; looking at it now, eh, probably still not enough) in time, plus like, what the hell, at the last minute you're giving us a choice between voting someone who says they're cop at a really convenient time or not lynching anyone. I made a last minute call: if we're wrong, that's bad but at least we have information versus being wrong a scum no lynch where we have no real info.

Now, Podima says that JakeP was the hammer vote and mine didn't count, despite Votefinder having a hiccup at that moment. No one really contested this, at least in public. Either someone did in private, if the mod says something it goes no matter what, or this would be a generally understood sequence of events. I'm assuming it's the last one, as Gulag and a few other players believed it was definitely hammer despite VF not chiming in.

And yet Lumpen is up there calling me out on voting a claimed cop (when it didn't even matter) despite not unvoting himself and being around at the deadline and even yelling at others to be sure of the hammer when it didn't actually matter?

You want scum tells? That's a scum tell. ##vote Lumpen. I have class in a bit. I'll respond to other things and have more content in a couple of hours.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


TheCog posted:

What happened to me being a serial killer? Why are you shifting targets? Did you change your mind?

In short: yes. See below.

You being a SK fit your posts thus far (at the time) to a decent degree. Lumpen's trying to get me for...being around at the deadline and making a snap decision? A snap decision indirectly encouraged by him? That strikes me as scummy a lot more.

Addressing everything else:

100YrsofAttitude posted:

It's really weird he wants to vote thecog for being the SK. I know we have to eliminate all threats to town, but he just as easily calls gulag scum and let's that option slide away until the final minutes of the game.

Actually you thought he was SK. A bit inconsistent. Still his vote on gulag does align with his intentions from pretty early on. He's INCREDIBY hedgy and unsure of his actions, which Asiina properly notes down as scummy but keeps to his message and opinions pretty regularly despite remembering what he himself thought just a bit earlier. I'm not so convinced.

Going from the bottom: I was under the impression "scum" meant, essentially, any anti town, which would include both Mafia and SK. I thought Cog was SK* (as in subset of scum; the first implies and allows use of the second). I also suspected Gulag for his strong defense of Cog as I figured a Mafia would benefit from such a play too, but I wasn't as strong on him as I was on Cog.

And then it came down to "someone you think is scum" or "no one". I chose the first, pure and simple.

*Cog was town, and in fact cop. He either figured that he was fine to risk or was trying to look vanilla by being fine risking a power role. Either way, a confirmed townie was fine with the plan, which tells me (as a "I don't know much what do more experienced people think?" train of thought) that it was possible for a town to be fine with what I thought was an insane plan, so I'm fine with calling Cog as more likely town now.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


imgay posted:

That one vote after hammer was pretty scummy I think

imgay posted:

Maybe he will explain himslef.

I wasn't sure on if Gulag was dead or not, basically. All the other threads I've read (all two of them!) Votefinder pops in as soon as the hammer vote comes, so I didn't know he was out already. He came in at the last minute claiming cop. I had a choice on whether to believe him. However, I was on my phone at the time: in the time it would take for me to type out any sort of thought or query we'd likely pass deadline (Maybe I could have gotten one post in, but I didn't feel sure on that and I didn't want to risk it). So I was refreshing until a minute before waiting for anyone else to come in and say something useful or at least unvote or whatever. That didn't happen, so I went with my hunch. An incorrect hunch, unfortunately, but that's what happened.

JakeP posted:

I must have missed that post, SK hunting is a huge scum tell, it shows where his mind is at, and when combined with the regardless of what team im on post, it really feels like he has a scum mindset

It was less SK hunting and more "He proposed this plan and stood by it even in the face of opposition, even as it made him look bad. That sounds like someone with conviction in their thought or nothing to lose. There's only one role with nothing to lose and a lot to gain". Now...is that actually how a SK would play? I dunno, I've never been in or read a game with one. But that's how I would think it.

imgay posted:

Or she, don't want to offend with wrong pronouns

He.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


JakeP posted:

Trasson if you thought cog was SK and gulag was scum protecting him how does that even work? Why would the scum know who the SK is?

In the alternate universe of "SK Cog Mafia Gulag", Gulag doesn't need to know Cog is SK. He just sees a plan that works for him if people agree to it, with the bonus of not even being the one proposing it. I don't recall saying Gulag knew or even thought Cog was SK.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


Captain Foo posted:

abruptly changing tack on a player is a pretty good scum tell imo

I wouldn't call it abruptly. We had three major events happen in between me suspecting Cog and me accusing Lumpen. We had the lynch on Gulag 1.0, we had him flip as cop, and we had ANarc get nightkilled and revealed as doctor. The last one doesn't enter in, but I'd say the first two are sufficient grounds to reanalyze who I think is scum. Like, am I supposed to not take new information into account? Hell, like I said in another post, Gulag1 being town gives credence to Cog being town in my mind: my suspicion of Cog hinged on "no town would support a plan this crazy" and then it turned out that a town, and a valuable town, was supporting a plan that crazy, so clearly my assumption is flawed. Compared to "hey let's lynch the last minute claim cop and be around after he claims and encourage that then get on someone's case for doing just that" I'd be stupid to think Cog was the bigger scum.

We've got a small group of people accusing me of abruptly changing my mind. One of them is Lumpen, who's been on me since day 1. why? Because of supposed scum tells? Every single thing I seem to do is scummy...except that wouldn't you expect that the rest of my scum team would then reign me in? Unless they're all a bunch of incompetents, all I'd be doing at this point is sabotaging my own team. Like, is there some 9th dimensional chess where throwing a scum power role this early is worth it? Hell, my biggest supporter replaced out so I'm literally thrown to the wolves here, and for what gain?

The case against me boils down to: I made some iffy contentless posts on day 1 (was still feeling my way around), a joke post about how Podima, noted BSG fan, made a bureaucrat a ninja and an awful ASOIAF pun, and that I voted someone who I'd said I suspected as scum because I was afraid he was going to get off on a last minute claim when most players weren't around anyway to counterclaim, and that I changed my mind on who I thought was scum based on new information we'd received.

Seriously, that's the case against me. My question I pose to the other townies is this: what do you think about this? Am I scum who's dropping handwritten notes with return addresses here running around looking like an idiot for no gain? Am I town who's making plays that look bad to more experienced players but at least I can explain? Something else?

Here's my theory: Lumpen is scum, and he's trying to get an easy lynch going by going after someone who made a similar play as him but he can make a better case for why they look bad, and he's got his friends in the scumdoc to back him up with "oh yeah he definitely looks scummy based on these posts". I can see the result now:. "Oh no, Trasson was actually town! He totally looked scummy though, am I right? Even if the result wasn't what we wanted, we definitely went about things the right way. Oh, and by the way, this player also looks kind of scummy..."

If you think that sounds like an awful defense, sure, vote me dead. Just remember who initiated this little vote parade after the flip.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


I'd say not claim because it just narrows a list of targets for our enemies more than it makes hunting easier for us.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


Oh you think I'm great? You must be scum.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


That was a joke.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


Dammit FL you ruined the flow of me trying to hit 10 in case deal goes down while I'm at work.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


Deal? Whatever you say autocorrect. See you all in five hours.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


I have no immediate arguments against Friction, but that's mostly because a vote for him is a vote that isn't for me. I'll go and reread his stuff and come back with a final opinion, but it looks like we're approaching a decision between him and no lynch so I'm not sure that my opinion matters much. I'll come back with a decision in ~10-15 minutes.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


hmm, rereading Friction's posts, umm, wow.

I kind of see what some of you mean by low content, there's really not much to actually go on when you just take his stuff,

The question is, is it calculated low content or is it "I have no idea what to actually post" low content. A bit of analysis: Friction's a BSG player (like me) with some in person experience (like me, but he probably has more because it's really hard to have less). Therefore, he's used to working off of hard evidence: who draws Piloting and what Destinations in BSG, or who sounds like they're lying and who seems sincere in IRL Mafia. There's a lot less hard evidence going around in PbP, which frustrates him.

Or he's playing deep cover and pretending to be the innocent newbie who's frustrated with the different way of things.

The problem is, I can't accuse him of being scum and doing that without undermining any credibility I have for being in a similar situation. This isn't helped by the fact that like half of his actual content is defending me. Is that trying to find a like minded town buddy or using a (if he's scum) almost certain town as a smokescreen? "If you think I'm scum then he's scum" sort of thing, I guess.

On the other hand, he hasn't posted since his (real?) ragequit post. I'll vote him to get a noncontributor out, but I can't really say he's scum without reservations. If he's scum, great! I'll call that a lucky break on my part and good reads from others. If he's town, he wasn't helping us going out like that, so that's better than lynching a useful townie, but it's definitely not the best result.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


well that got invalidated. See y'all after nighttime.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


JakeP posted:

unless SK kill goes through BP?

It does, the SK is unstoppable.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


JakeP posted:

No mention of how it interacts with BP, just Jail and Doc. Podima can you confirm how the SK interacts with BP?

Yeah, I just checked that, it just says in both the PM and the OP that it can't be roleblocked or jailed and it can even hit a jailed target, so Kashuno must have died to n1 poison.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


King Burgundy posted:

This is lylo now, right?

Is there any reason to not mass claim now? This feels like a must to me.

votefinder posted:

:awesomelon: Votecount for Day 3 :awesomelon:
Not Voting (11): 100YrsofAttitude, Captain Foo, Flying Leatherman, GulagDolls, imgay, JakeP, King Burgundy, Lumpen, Metos, TheCog, Trasson :ffg:

With 11 alive, it's 6 votes to lynch. The current deadline is February 05th, 2016 at 8:30 p.m. EST -- that's in about 1 day, 20 hours.

Quoting this for my own reference while I work this out, more for my own practice than for anyone else's need.. There's 1 SK and four mafia left, so six townies. Of the four inheritable roles, three are up for grabs, so the total loadout is 1 SK, 4 Mafia, three power towns, three vanilla towns.

If we lynch a town, then we go to 1/4/5. If SK and Mafia both shoot a town, that's 1/4/3, which doesn't trigger any endgame condition? Mafia are "You win when nothing can stop you from taking control of the ship" and 1/4/3 is eight left so five to lynch; they don't even control majority. The SK is the wildcard there on whether or not the game is winnable at that point, but it's not impossible.

If in the upcoming lynch is the SK and the Mafia NK a town, that's 4/5. Still winnable. If the upcoming lynch is a town, the SK kills a town, and the Mafia take out the SK, then we have 4/4, which is a Mafia win.

If the lynch hits a Mafia, the SK hits a Mafia, and the Mafia hit a jailed/doctored target, we celebrate. 1/2/6 sounds much better. Anything in between that and the above isn't as good but still wildly better.

As an exercise: if we no-lynch, the worst cases are SK->Town/Mafia->Town: we go from 1/4/6 to 1/4/4, which is just a hair better than the 1/4/3 above, while SK->Town/Mafia->SK results in going from 1/4/6 to 4/5. That's...better odds than I was thinking.

So, if I have the permutations right (there's probably something I'm forgetting; like I said, this is more for my own practice, I imagine some of you could carry this math in your head) then it's not LYLO, strictly. We can still win after lynching a town, but it's unpleasant. We actually have better odds (better as in no routes lead straight to absolute defeat. I can't speak for better as in better actual chances to win) on a no lynch than we do lynching a town, so that's a thing.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


right, see, I forgot about accounting for poison.

1/4/6 starting, if we lynch town and three towns die that's 1/4/2. Seven remain, four votes to lynch, Mafia control the vote. They lynch town and SK kills a mafia, it's 1/3/1, they still control; that's a Mafia victory. 1/4/2, lynch town, SK kills a town, same result.

From start, we lynch town, SK kills town, Mafia kill SK and a town, we go from 1/4/6 to 4/3, Mafia victory. A miss on the SK from doctor/jailer would result in 1/4/3, which is rough but technically winnable. A miss on town from any of those (no lynch, doctor/jail) gives us 1/4/4, which isn't the worst but still bad. If we lynch SK and the Mafia kill two towns we're at 4/4 which is a loss.

If we no lynch we toss the dice on where the SK aims and if the Mafia poisoned, but as long as the SK lives it's technically winnable, I think. If we lynch a town and the SK aims town we're out if the Mafia poisoned, but still in it if they did a normal NK. If we lynch the SK and the Mafia poisoned we lose; if they didn't we still have a chance.

So, in short, it's not straight traditional LYLO as I understand it, but I think it's close enough to be "oh god we're going to die if we screw up" territory as to make no difference.

Will claiming actually help us? If it will, I'm for it, but I want to see everyone else's thoughts first because my gut instinct for this sort of thing is not the greatest.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


JakeP posted:

lol what PM? are you the SK?

the list of role PMs in the OP? Like, where the hell else would I pull that from? What would you call it anyway besides that? If I'd called it the doc or the google doc would I then be getting asked if I got the info from the scumdoc?

Look, I'm new but I'd have to be an absolute moron to accidentally drop "oh, it says it's not stopped by bulletproof in my role PM" out right now.

Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


JakeP posted:

i don't think they can poison and kill in the same night?

We had one N1 death and two N2 deaths. One of those deaths was a bulletproof, which implies poison. This is backed up by the first night only having one kill. If Mafia poisoned N1 and N2, we get one death N1 from SK, two deaths N2 from SK and poison, and could potentially see 3 deaths N3 from SK, previous night's poison, and standard NK. It's the worst case scenario for town and ought to be accounted for.

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Rosalie_A
Oct 30, 2011


Lumpen posted:

I also think that Trasson is still Scum and posting info cribbed from a Scumdoc discussion again re:LYLO.

Now you're just reaching. If I were scum I wouldn't be iterating out the possibilities, I'd be laying low hoping at least some of the town would miscalculate and lynch themselves to death. Give your enemy every chance to screw up and all that.

As for a mass claim, I'm vaguely for it but we don't have nearly enough yes votes to feel comfortable with it--by definition, we need at least six votes to be sure (as a group, not on a per person basis) there's at least one townies for it, and by my count there's four (not counting me).

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