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cousin.avi
Oct 1, 2005

So what you’re saying is, if we haven’t already cashed out then it’s pretty much too late. I’m in the same boat as notmetalenough with a Grand King but I played off and on with a decent collection.

I haven’t really been following much in the last month or so other than reading about the artist issues. Are we pretty much accepting that it’s only a matter of time? I kept waiting for the social/MMO feature but it seems like those just aren’t going to happen, let alone the crafting and other stuff. Or will they be able to limp along with being primarily pvp and just hosting tournaments and putting out new sets?

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GaistHeidegger
May 20, 2001

"Can you see?"
There's routinely a 'state of the game' data analysis performed on HexPrimal by Fred, who is the community guy who has all sorts of hooks into the API for actual play + auction hall activity to keep a barometer on how the game's actually performing. When looking at these numbers, for reference, the first percentage is in comparison to last month and the second percentage is in comparison to the same relative month (e.g. third from set release for this one) as the prior set release. You can read the full article here, but here's the gist:

Most Recent 'State of the Game' Data Analysis posted:

In the current period, there were 1,749 (-33.4%/-68.8%) draft gauntlets, 3,415 (-20.4%/-40.3%) evo sealed gauntlets and 41 (-61.7%/-90.7%) sealed gauntlets completed.

Looking more closely into draft data, we find that 401 (-25.6%/-62.0%) draft pods fired, and 1,749 (-33.4%/-68.8%) draft gauntlets runs were completed. On average, 4.0 (-20.0%/-20.0%) runs were completed per pod.

In the observed period, 37,746 (+6.8%/-16.6%) constructed ladder matches were played. Cosmic Coins seems to have had the desired effect it bringing more activity in the constructed ladder.

It is still too soon to look at the Immortal gauntlet numbers, but we will be sure to look at them next month once the data starts pouring in.

Bash tournaments had an average of 40 players, with 164 different people participating across the 8 events in the period. An average of 52.0 (-26.8%/-16.1%) players signed up for the Arcanum Vault scheduled tournaments, and 39 (-13.3%/-40.9%) players participated in the FiveShards Weekly tournaments. Finally, the Fight Night had an average of 39.0 (-17.0%/-29.1%) players, while the Singles Night had an average of 6.0 (-50.0%/-60.0%) players signed up.

So, a pretty heavy drop since last month and an even heavier drop since the third month of last set, which on its face hurts. Deeper than that, however, is another consideration: for reference, the last state of the game last month was already the lowest activity in the history of the game, so take the first percentage comparison into consideration in that context.

DrManiac
Feb 29, 2012

At the very least I hope some dev steals the card mmo thing because the adventure zone stuff was genuinely fun and nobody does single player tcg stuff anymore.

The class and equipment stuff was dope and I loved being able to have straight up broken stuff because the computer cheats just as much. I hate we didn’t get to see any raids.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

GaistHeidegger posted:

There's routinely a 'state of the game' data analysis performed on HexPrimal by Fred, who is the community guy who has all sorts of hooks into the API for actual play + auction hall activity to keep a barometer on how the game's actually performing. When looking at these numbers, for reference, the first percentage is in comparison to last month and the second percentage is in comparison to the same relative month (e.g. third from set release for this one) as the prior set release. You can read the full article here, but here's the gist:


So, a pretty heavy drop since last month and an even heavier drop since the third month of last set, which on its face hurts. Deeper than that, however, is another consideration: for reference, the last state of the game last month was already the lowest activity in the history of the game, so take the first percentage comparison into consideration in that context.

I do wonder if we aren't getting the full picture though. Because obviously all these modes cannibalize each other. There are more things to do now then there were a year ago or even a couple months ago at this point. Like has Merry Melee pulled from those other modes? What effect has siege had? Etc.

Part of this could just be me wanting to be optimistic though.

GaistHeidegger
May 20, 2001

"Can you see?"
Only 6 people showed up for the Singles Night tournament and in the most recent VIP tournament there were so few attendees that the same players ended up paired multiple rounds. There is data suggesting the Merry Melee modes pulled activity from the Limited queue, and the amount of attendance for those modes was actually decently high--but that's also in the context of 'chasing' animated sleeves, where it is likely that folks won't return to repeats of the queues once they have them.

For a good comparison, when they first introduced Kismet Draft towards the end of a set, it had a tremendous surge of new activity where the limited activity had been waning. The second time they launched Kismet Draft in the same period following, it barely registered on activity--there wasn't a surge at all.

Here is from the state of the game back in February:

quote:

During the last days of Dead of Winter, there were 3,229 (-28.8%/-50.0%) draft gauntlets, 5,233 (-14.9%/-15.2%) evo sealed gauntlets and 338 (-32.9%/+20.0%) sealed gauntlets completed.

Looking more closely into draft data, we find that 583 (-15.1%/-43.1%) draft pods fired and 3,229 (-28.8%/-50.0%) draft gauntlets runs were completed. On average, 4.9 (-15.8%/-13.3%) runs were completed per pod.

Already a huge drop-off of 30% from last prior and 50% from the previous set--and those draft gauntlet numbers are almost double what we're seeing in the most recent state of the game statistics.

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katkillad2
Aug 30, 2004

Awake and unreal, off to nowhere

GaistHeidegger posted:

and in the most recent VIP tournament there were so few attendees that the same players ended up paired multiple rounds.

Yea... when there aren't even 8 players there's no guarantee there will even be a 4-0 payout. On top of that, one of the VIP AA's is marked as untradeable. Tomorrow starts the 2nd round in this VIP rotation and so a month later and they still haven't fixed it. :effort:

GaistHeidegger
May 20, 2001

"Can you see?"

katkillad2 posted:

Yea... when there aren't even 8 players there's no guarantee there will even be a 4-0 payout. On top of that, one of the VIP AA's is marked as untradeable. Tomorrow starts the 2nd round in this VIP rotation and so a month later and they still haven't fixed it. :effort:

You can read between the lines a lot just by eyeballing the actual Hex development presence. There are many, many signs that point to a collapse in the month of May--with the blow-up over being unable to pay the artists being the catalyst that got the forums to implode. Beyond that: Corey Burkhart departed as the lead designer and is now over at Dire Wolf, HexTrevorFenn hasn't been active since May 23rd and in his absence, there haven't been any replies to any of the Bug and Tech Issues threads on the Hex forums whatsoever. Ryan Sutherland was MIA from this week's Dev Stream, and has not been active since June 3rd.

If you really want to get into the grittier ill portents, among the many recent discussion threads that have been deleted from the official forums, one which had implored for better communication went many pages without incident until someone started asking if Hex still had a physical office with employees in it. One of the higher-end players who has actually been to the office--and recently--confirmed that there is still an office with employees, but then said that he could not discuss details further (with folks prompting that he likely was under NDA.) This was all well and good until someone posted speculation that Hex only had 3 - 5 employees left, which this individual 'liked' -- and as soon as people started pointing that out, the thread was deleted.

Hex Entertainment is in complete communication shutdown mode. Last night's dev stream they adamantly would not engage in discussion of more or less anything pertinent, and even when people were just prompting if set 10 spoiler season was soon, they belted out a curt reply that they would be making no announcements on that channel at this time. Hex has been hemorrhaging players for a long time, but the whiplash inciting incident over the artists situation and how HXE handled the community response led to an abrupt cut-off of a not insignificant additional number of players. At this point, I would not be surprised if there isn't even a set 10 altogether.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound
Oh, that's sad. I enjoyed the time I spent playing this game, just fell away from it and never got around to going back.

I feel like it never really recovered from the effects of the WTC lawsuit.

GaistHeidegger
May 20, 2001

"Can you see?"
To an extent, sure--but HXE was funded a further $20 million+ during their relationship with Gameforge and that has to have been significant substance despite the lawsuit. About a year ago, Cory Jones indicated that more than $25 million total had gone into Hex's development altogether. Really, in the end, it was just a lot of mismanagement after mismanagement, IMO.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

That's a huge bummer.

Thrawn200
Dec 13, 2008

"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us." - Calvin & Hobbes

GaistHeidegger posted:

Really, in the end, it was just a lot of mismanagement after mismanagement, IMO.

Indeed, they did so much right, but they also did so much terribly wrong for reasons we'll probably never know. I hope the game makes a recovery, so much of the concept is still solid, but I don't read much positive news about Hex anymore.

Phoix
Jul 20, 2006




Friday Update

quote:

Finally, to close out our Friday Update for the week, we have a few words from Cory Jones:

***

Hello everyone, sorry for the lack of information lately. Please know that a lack of news isn’t about things not happening, it’s usually about WHEN we can talk about what’s happening. As you know, HEX is now independently published. As a very small publisher, we must deal with the realities of living from the revenue HEX generates.

As you may have noticed over the last several months, revenue from Set 9 is sadly down, and this has put some constraints on our progress. We are currently working on plans to expand what HEX Entertainment does in an effort to build us up into a slightly larger developer / publisher, but we cannot go into the specifics as this is currently in process. However, we wanted you to be aware we are actively working on growing the company and, with it, the game.

Until these plans are finalized, we must be very careful with the resources we have available. We continue to have our team in place and working on the game, BUT we must delay Set 10 until we are in a place to kick off the art acquisition (the Set is designed, but we didn’t feel comfortable ordering art given our current cash flow). My hope is we will delay it by no more than 2 months, but we will need to realign the schedule for Sets in general based on this, and may want to fine tune that date.

I am aware this is not the news you want, and believe me it’s not the news I want to deliver. We remain committed to HEX and I hope to have great solutions in place soon.

Finally, if you are a cash prize winner, we have another batch of tournament payments going out Monday. We hope to have all the outstanding prizes paid by the end of July.

Cory Jones
HEX ENTERTAINMENT
President / CEO

Feel like there's basically no way Set 10 hits even at that two month delay date if they haven't even commissioned the art yet and they still aren't confident they can pay out tournaments before the end of the month.

:rip:

GaistHeidegger
May 20, 2001

"Can you see?"
Yeah, if they haven't even commissioned the art yet for ostensibly 250 - 300+ cards, there is no way on Earth that 2 month estimate is remotely tenable--especially if they're still having issues paying out what are, let's be honest, very small amounts in cash for winnings (in the grand scheme of things, $5000-ish USD should not break the back of HXE.)

Add to this that, for better or worse, this confirmation is further cementing people not putting more money into the game now--Hex is absolutely done. It will be a miracle if set 10 happens, but if it does it'll assuredly be the last set; Cory Jones hasn't changed trajectory for cashflow issues in 5 years, it's stupid to imagine he'll somehow wise up to how not to run it into the ground while they're deep in the red now.

Felime
Jul 10, 2009
Yeah, I can't see how any business without $5000 to cover important expenses isn't dead. I've had a paycheck error that wasn't noticed for several months come to a large chunk of that.

It's a shame, I really enjoyed the single player and put a little money into the game, but lack of new content in that meant I kinda drifted away from it, and I sure as hell wasn't starting a pack a day ccg habit.

Tamba
Apr 5, 2010

GaistHeidegger posted:

There's routinely a 'state of the game' data analysis performed on HexPrimal by Fred, who is the community guy who has all sorts of hooks into the API for actual play + auction hall activity to keep a barometer on how the game's actually performing. When looking at these numbers, for reference, the first percentage is in comparison to last month and the second percentage is in comparison to the same relative month (e.g. third from set release for this one) as the prior set release. You can read the full article here, but here's the gist:

quote:

In the current period, there were 1,749 (-33.4%/-68.8%) draft gauntlets, 3,415 (-20.4%/-40.3%) evo sealed gauntlets and 41 (-61.7%/-90.7%) sealed gauntlets completed.

Looking more closely into draft data, we find that 401 (-25.6%/-62.0%) draft pods fired, and 1,749 (-33.4%/-68.8%) draft gauntlets runs were completed. On average, 4.0 (-20.0%/-20.0%) runs were completed per pod.

In the observed period, 37,746 (+6.8%/-16.6%) constructed ladder matches were played. Cosmic Coins seems to have had the desired effect it bringing more activity in the constructed ladder.

It is still too soon to look at the Immortal gauntlet numbers, but we will be sure to look at them next month once the data starts pouring in.

Bash tournaments had an average of 40 players, with 164 different people participating across the 8 events in the period. An average of 52.0 (-26.8%/-16.1%) players signed up for the Arcanum Vault scheduled tournaments, and 39 (-13.3%/-40.9%) players participated in the FiveShards Weekly tournaments. Finally, the Fight Night had an average of 39.0 (-17.0%/-29.1%) players, while the Singles Night had an average of 6.0 (-50.0%/-60.0%) players signed up.

So, a pretty heavy drop since last month and an even heavier drop since the third month of last set, which on its face hurts. Deeper than that, however, is another consideration: for reference, the last state of the game last month was already the lowest activity in the history of the game, so take the first percentage comparison into consideration in that context.

The next analysis is out :rip:

quote:

In the current period, there were 1,076 (-37.3%/-66.4%) draft gauntlets, 2,334 (-29.8%/-54.1%) evo sealed gauntlets and 24 (-41.5%/-93.1%) sealed gauntlets completed.

Looking more closely into draft data, we find that 270 (-32.3%/-57.7%) draft pods fired, and 1,076 (-37.3%/-66.4%) draft gauntlets runs were completed. On average, 4.0 (+0.0%/-20.0%) runs were completed per pod.

As for the Clash, an average of 38 (-35.6%/-44.1%) players participated in each event, with 150 (-30.9%) different players participating across the period.

katkillad2
Aug 30, 2004

Awake and unreal, off to nowhere
I don't know why anyone would still put money into the game and I suggest you don't. But in case you want to go hog wild opening packs or something, I'm selling any set booster for $0.25 each. ( Minimum purchase 80 boosters. )

https://forums.hextcg.com/index.php?thread/3512-selling-any-set-booster-0-25-minimum-80-booster-purchase-availability-currently/

You can pm me here or on the forums if you are interested.

GaistHeidegger
May 20, 2001

"Can you see?"
HXE missed their own extended deadline of paying out cash-winning tournament players, who have been owed their winnings for quite a few weeks at this point. Some of the last few remaining streamers have officially sworn off the game forever, and one of the most consistent visible big winners of Hex's competitive scene also gave the game an official goodbye.

The clash/bash which generally floated around 100 - 150 players are circling at 10 - 12 per weekend, despite those events continuing to vomit enormous amounts of plat into the system at a huge internal hemorrhaging loss in the equivalent of a busted fire hydrant spraying into an already flooded street.

Plat is worth practically nothing, activity is at an all-time low and there are few and far between signs of life from HXE itself. Apart from the community manager, only a single Hex employee has even looked at the official forums in over a month and it's pretty safe to say that the majority of the team is long gone. It's dead, Jim.

katkillad2
Aug 30, 2004

Awake and unreal, off to nowhere
I had one person ask about my packs at .25 cents after about a week or so, with zero sales. Decided it's not worth the effort to even monitor. Since plat value is based of real money booster prices... yea plat and collections are currently basically worthless.

So I probably lost $200 or so, unless they magically pull set 10 out of their rear end and/or sell the game to someone else. Even if they sold it to someone else, they are spewing so much plat into the game with the tournaments now, I wouldn't be surprised if plat becomes as useful as gold and they required real money for entering tournaments or made a third currency.

Could have been a lot worse, I made someone a $1k offer on a collection a week or two before artistgate. The one time I'm glad someone on the forums over valued their collection. So I'm going to call this a win :smug:

katkillad2 fucked around with this message at 21:43 on Aug 2, 2018

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katkillad2
Aug 30, 2004

Awake and unreal, off to nowhere

katkillad2 posted:

So I probably lost $200 or so

I'm sure everyone was dying for an update. ( This is more a current state of the game reflection. )

I actually made a profit with the last collection I purchased, a whole :10bux:. I basically liquidated someone's collection for third world wages. I guess that's still better than losing $200. At some point my thoughts they might release another set went from 10% to .0001% so I figured better to get my money back than risk it on a terrible chance they do release another set.

To move the plat, I was selling packs for as low as .17 cents per booster. Actually cheaper when you consider I was giving 2 primals with every 100 booster purchase. Even this was a painful process, people were showing interest an average of once per two weeks.

The last draft I played took 4-5 hours from start to finish. Spent literally hours in queue after the draft had fired and and I wasn't even in the 2-0 win queue which is worse.

:rip:

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