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SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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Sure.

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SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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##vote The Lord of Hats

NEVER AGAIN

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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I think he might be a Magnus Gallant parachute? If so then yes he is.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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I thought that his problem in soldiers was that he was scum.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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Honestly voting imgay based on his posting on Day 1 is a bad idea. He always decides on a different style of shitposting for each game, and this game apparently his choice of shitposting is... not shitposting at all? You need to wait for more information to see how he interacts with people before making an alignment call.

Voting for imgay is also a very easy way to seem like you're scumhunting for voting the guy doing the weird posts.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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Jose Valasquez posted:

Have people forgotten that we haven't executed imgay yet? Because he's still alive for some reason.

This post is kinda weird.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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Jose Valasquez posted:

Why is it weird?

Why was it important for imgay to be dead?

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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EccoRaven posted:

MAFIA GAME let's BREAK THIS DOWN WOO


okay so I am going to categorize players into two groups, the worthless and the not necessarily worthless. it should be obvious who falls into which group even at a glance.

THE WORTHLESS:
TMM, ultra-worthless (moved a vote onto a townie and then got himself killed, gj tmm)

MG2, posts occasionally but is never "present" in the thread. Forgot a vote he made less than an hour after he made it.

imgay. For all his bluster he hasn't actually done much this game so far. I can't recall a specific opinion he's had that wasn't couched on "I am town how dare people be votin' me."

Sir Sam Vimes is apparently in this game. I could not have told you that. He should post more and better.


THE NOT NECESSARILY WORTHLESS:

hm this has become a less fruitful analysis than I expected going into this post.

BottleKnight - non-entity this game, what little he has posted has been scummy (his case on murmur without a vote e.g.)
EccoRaven - the towniest town to town a town
Flying Leatherman - came for the clutch with a merk vote yesterday, gets points in my book.
Jose Valasquez - I get townie feelings from jose. I feel like scum jose WOULD have tried to kill imgay last night.
Max - neutral
Murmur Twin - has been moving but if she can't participate more fully she should get replaced.
Quandary - I have been getting scummy vibes from him all game.
The Lord of Hats - neutral

While I agree that I have been pretty useless this game, it seems weird to categorise people based on how active they've been in the game instead of how scummy they are. Can you clarify what scummy vibes you've been getting from Quandary?

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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I decided to look up ecco gambit on the mafia wiki. Ecco did you write that?

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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I asked because the article had a clear pro-eccogambit bias and I expect integrity in my mafia wiki

Also, I find the fact that you are declaring a case against you to just be a "picking a fight with town" gambit kinda suspicious.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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EccoRaven posted:

it's not a good case. It exaggerates my actual post history to make a point that isn't even that strong if it were true. It came out of nowhere.

I think my interpretation is very reasonable.

How is it "kinda suspicious" anyway? What does that even mean? Do you think scum are more likely than town to address cases against them?

There's nothing wrong with arguing with against a case. It's weird to declare it to be some kind of invalid gambit.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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I agree with what you were saying up until this.

EccoRaven posted:

"I am going to get into the game by picking a fight with an active poster, making a case against them, and rolling with the punches over it."

It's a pretty common strategy for town to motivate themselves in a game that's stagnating.

That's the thing I've been saying is weird.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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I think it's weird because it is a means of disregarding a case against you regardless of the validity of said case. Even if the case wasn't great, it still pings me.

Then again, I did wake up half an hour ago so maybe I'm just being bad at mafia

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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I like all the cases on Magnus, but I'm going to withhold my vote to avoid putting him at -1.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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THere was also you complaining about him being a shitposter a lot.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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The point is that you were doubling down on writing imgay off as just being a shitposter and someone who should be killed.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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Replacements are bad.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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Allow me to make it a non-issue.

##vote mg2 :redhammer:

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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Max posted:

This is pretty much lylo, yeah?

With 8 alive and 3 scum, we're at mylo I believe. If we don't lynch, the scum - not scum ratio will be 4:3 and they won't control the vote. If we mislynch it'll be 3:3 and we lose.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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Max posted:

Can the vig please claim?

I really thought Jose was scum and I figured it would be better to do a vig today when if it failed it wouldn't lose us the game.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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Quandary posted:

Yep nope ##vote SSV.

I'm the vig, I shot Jose last night. I really thought he was scum and unfortunately was wrong, sorry Jose :(

scum found, claiming my vig

##vote quandary

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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I hadn't voted yet because I was waiting for MG2 to offer some kind of defense. When he instead started talking about getting replaced out and modkilled, I saw no reason to leave him alive.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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Quandary posted:

While SSV has expressed a tiny bit of suspicion on Jose, it's nothing in comparison to how muchI have. If I'm the scum, it's basically saying that I got ultra lucky and the guy who I've been railing against all game happened to be the vig kill. Alternately, I'm town and vigged the guy who I've been calling scum all game.

You're trying to take advantage of it being mylo and trying to cause one more mislynch. It doesn't matter to you that I'll flip vig and you'll be outed as scum, because you'll have already won. I bet that if I had vigged someone else, a different member of the scumteam would have claimed the kill.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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My thoughts are that it deeply saddens me that my liege has turned traitor and I must side with Jocasta herself.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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imgay posted:

I think we should all full claim, what you guys think?

I doubt that's a good idea. Like Max said, if we survive today the cop/tracker being revealed is a bad thing and if they had any damning results they would have claimed them.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

~* Challenge *~




Flying Leatherman posted:

But in this situation, if we are in setup 3, the tracker is functionally the same as a cop, with no chance for obfuscation. Anyone performing a night action tonight that's not the tracker is scum, period (ie a flat binary check, exactly like a cop). Your discounting of that scenario is just willfully ignoring the numbers.

I really doubt that if we were in setup 3 anyone any night actions except the kill will happen. Especially now that you've drawn attention to the fact that all the rolecop will really do is show up as an investigation, so a tracker would have to investigate the one member of the scumteam that's actually doing the kill.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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Flying Leatherman posted:

Alright, let me outline this as best I can, using English instead of numbers, because I haven't been communicating this well enough I guess?

If we lunch today we have a blind 50% shot at losing (discounting analysis). If we lunch tomorrow with no PR results, we have the same chance. However, the chance of getting a result is nonzero, and the chance of the result being accurate is greater than it not being correct, meaning our chance at voting correctly tomorrow goes up in the aggregate. The chances of the power role being killed tonight are the same regardless of what we do today, so the only downside I see is that we have to yell at each other for another 48 hours.

SSV, to your point, that's not necessarily true - I can't math it on a phone, but the scum would have an interest in finding or killing the tracker as fast as possible. Even if the rolecop gets caught, doubling the chances of catching the tracker tonight equates to the other scum being untrackable for the night kill. So, don't discount that.

Why would scum try so hard to catch the tracker? All they need to do is cause one more mislynch, and making getting caught out twice as likely seems to be a weak strategy.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

~* Challenge *~




I'll be around until deadline.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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Looks like you might get your wish then.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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Max posted:

This sucks.

word

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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If I wasn't pretty sure that the remaining scum were chaoslord and bottleknight I'd be squinting pretty hard at you hats.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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err, leatherman I mean. THe one advocating the no lynch

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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beep beep

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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Well there goes my Quandary/BK/Chaoslord theory... Well, two out of three aren't bad.

I agree that your third result is probably a lucky frame now that I know that we're in the framer setup. Max has felt too townie to me for me to think he's scum. I'm also unsurprised by the Quandary result, a Godfather would be the most likely to try to claim a vig.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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While I know 100% that Quandary is scum, I'm also comfortable enough with BK being scum too that I'd vote him.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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Do you think BK is framed town?

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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Honestly, do we even need to keep this day going? I feel like we'd have a more productive discussion once we get a scum flip on the field.

Quandary posted:

Why vote BK today? We know unequivocally that one of me or SSV is scum, I don't see any reason to vote someone else until one of us is dead.

Because from the perspective of someone who isn't me, it's a 50/50 between us two and they're a lot more than 50% confident that BottleKnight is scum.

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

~* Challenge *~




Oh wait, we're at -2 not -1. I was holding my back vote to avoid a premature hammer just in case. ##vote bottleknight

SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

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His fakeclaim requires him to "believe" that I am 100% scum, so he is refusing to let go of his vote on me because it is more "townie" to vote for someone you know is definitely scum.

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SirSamVimes
Jul 21, 2008

~* Challenge *~




Nothing feels better than causing a scum meltdown.

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