waitwhatno posted:CSU(hillbilly party; the party that has been ruling the state of Bavaria for all of its history) demands for Turkey to be declared a secure state, before any visa-free travel agreement can take place. They don't want any Turkish/Kurdish tourist to come here and apply for asylum from the Erdogan regime. That's actually not true. If your are a legitimate refugee you can still claim asylum, even if your country of origin is defined as secure, only the burden of proof is reversed. They simply don't want the problem they had with people from the Balkans to repeat with Turks. Oh and the CSU is a very modern party that gets even defended by the only Green Ministerpräsident.
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Mar 9, 2016 16:17
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Cat Mattress posted:
Expectations of future demand are a major consideration when hiring due to the costs of hiring and other factors. In countries where firing is more difficult a company must be even more certain the demand will last long enough or that the profit in the near term is great enough to risk future losses from overstaffing. What you are saying is an incredible oversimplification of how it really works in the business world, it's not just beep boop we need another widget like econ 101 would have you believe. Of course there's lots of other factors but employment laws are absolutely a major component of the decision.
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Mar 9, 2016 16:43
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:Expectations of future demand are a major consideration when hiring due to the costs of hiring and other factors. In countries where firing is more difficult a company must be even more certain the demand will last long enough or that the profit in the near term is great enough to risk future losses from overstaffing. What you are saying is an incredible oversimplification of how it really works in the business world, it's not just beep boop we need another widget like econ 101 would have you believe. So essentially you are saying that when it is extremely easy to fire people, and companies know that come next economic trouble lots of people are going to be unemployed, consumption is going to crater and the work orders are going to evaporate, they hire less? I see.
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Mar 9, 2016 17:39
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So uh, was that a serious post or not? I was on probation so I couldn't quote it, perhaps lucky for you? 
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Mar 9, 2016 17:42
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LemonDrizzle posted:So apparently the impetus for the new Turkish deal with resettlement and visa-free Schengen access for Turkish citizens didn't come from the Turks at all - it was pushed by Merkel, behind everyone else's back: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f6c982ec-e54e-11e5-ac45-5c039e797d1c.html#axzz42OW2bIUR Ok, this move really is the nail in the coffin for any respect I had for Merkel (granted as a yank that may not mean much). It was arguable (not very well mind you) that Merkel's administration had some prerogative to use German stature in the EU to influence policy in member states from a financial standpoint. However, this whole migrant crisis, from start to not-even-finished-yet, has demonstrated how out of touch and unilateral Merkel is being. It's not enough to unilaterally throw open the doors and tell every poor migrant (refugee or otherwise) "come on in!" and then demand your neighbors pitch in, now she is undermining their negotiations with Turkey with more unilateral back-room deals. Now I understand why Austria and the Balkan countries did their own planning without German involvement, otherwise Merkel would have canned the border closures and those countries would be facing another season of hundreds of thousands of migrants when this Turkey deal collapses. I gotta think that stuff like this back-stabbing will only hasten the move for countries like Austria, Slovenia, and the Visegrad group to try and solve issues alone or as a sub-group. What is the opinion of the Visegrad group in Slovenia, Austria, and other nearby nations? If I were them I'd start trying to expand membership in the club to Austria. This is starting to feel like that goon CK2 LP of the HRE.
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Mar 9, 2016 17:46
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Tesseraction posted:So uh, was that a serious post or not? I was on probation so I couldn't quote it, perhaps lucky for you? Hahahaha I mean, it was a serious post, I think they deserve a look, but I erased because it was a derail, an objectifying one at that, which didn't add much to the conversation.
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Mar 9, 2016 17:51
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Dawncloack posted:So essentially you are saying that when it is extremely easy to fire people, and companies know that come next economic trouble lots of people are going to be unemployed, consumption is going to crater and the work orders are going to evaporate, they hire less? They hire less people on relatively expensive permanent contracts. This is actually the flipside of employment protection legislation (EPL), because when a crisis comes companies fire fewer people than they would in a more flexible labour market. So while strong protections can hold down employment they also dampen unemployment. Companies are also more likely to invest in training for their employees when they are on permanent contracts (this effect may not apply to the public sector), and employees in turn will be more loyal. There is no strong evidence that EPL increases unemployment rates in general. What is however a bit more certain is that employment is slower to recover from crises in countries with strong EPL, and also that it shuts young people out of the labour market. Of course in a country like Spain (or in any of the Mediterranean countries really), you have a large degree of segmentation in the labour market where a majority is well-protected in their jobs and the minority on temporary contracts have no security whatsoever. And the latter are always the first to lose their jobs in a recession. But you're probably not going to solve that problem simply by reducing employment security for everyone else too.
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Mar 9, 2016 18:14
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waitwhatno posted:CSU(hillbilly party; the party that has been ruling the state of Bavaria for all of its history) demands for Turkey to be declared a secure state, before any visa-free travel agreement can take place. They don't want any Turkish/Kurdish tourist to come here and apply for asylum from the Erdogan regime. Why would a Turkish tourist need to request asylum in Germany while the Ankara agreement already gives him extensive freedom of movement with regards to the EU? 
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Mar 9, 2016 19:37
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Pluskut Tukker posted:But you're probably not going to solve that problem simply by reducing employment security for everyone else too. I agree but I see no other policy proposed either from Brussels or the PP.
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Mar 9, 2016 19:38
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This new deal and plan seems awfully similar to the one that the UK has advocated from the beginning.
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Mar 9, 2016 20:56
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khwarezm posted:I always like the way Scottish nationalists say they'd let in Wales and the north to show how cool and inclusive they are, but either conspicuously avoid mentioning Northern Ireland or are openly hostile to the notion that they would have to shoulder any responsibility there despite having much stronger cultural links. That's because Northern Ireland is a wild case. The best thing to do is to not bother with them. Let what's left of the UK handle that poo poo.
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Mar 9, 2016 21:05
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http://balkanist.net/turkeys-mysterious-disappearing-refugees/quote:Official refugee estimates by the United Nations and the Turkish government are calculated by registration instead of tracking, thereby including hundreds of thousands who have found refuge in Europe or returned home. By John Butler and S. Keleşoğlu. Would be really funny if this turns out to be true.
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Mar 9, 2016 21:54
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Lagotto posted:http://balkanist.net/turkeys-mysterious-disappearing-refugees/ Wouldn't surprise me in the least. Erdogan gets to claim that he's having to shoulder all 2.6 million refugees all by himself (which helps his extortion efforts) through the power of his world compassion, meanwhile he quietly lets them all through on their way to Greece and the EU. I simply do not understand why anyone takes anything the Turkish government says at face value anymore; Erdogan and the AKP is blatantly pulling a little Putin act, just without the shirtless pictures. I wouldn't be surprised if Erdogan tries to annex Cyprus or something equally retarded.
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Mar 9, 2016 23:00
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Extreme0 posted:That's because Northern Ireland is a wild case. You say that now but when we close our borders to your overflow on the 12th you'll regret this
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Mar 9, 2016 23:06
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Dawncloack posted:I agree but I see no other policy proposed either from Brussels or the PP. 'Brussels' is actually proposing tons of policies to help (at least, that's the intention) the Spanish economy and labour market, and subsidizing them too. There's a whole framework of coordination of member state economic policies, the European Semester which for instance issued recommendation for Spain to improve the quality and effectiveness of job search assistance and counselling, to improve the coverage of the regional minimum income schemes, and a bunch of other things. But it is rather toothless in actually getting the member states to comply with the regulations and it doesn't get a lot of press attention either (also, the associated documents function really well as sleeping aids). The liberalization obviously gets more attention because it's the most contentious part and affects the most people directly. Also, of course, without Brussels there might very well not be a Spanish banking system anymore. No argument on the PP though.
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Mar 10, 2016 00:31
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kustomkarkommando posted:You say that now but when we close our borders to your overflow on the 12th you'll regret this That's why I'm planning on building a wall like the one in Doomsday.
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Mar 10, 2016 02:26
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Randler posted:Why would a Turkish tourist need to request asylum in Germany while the Ankara agreement already gives him extensive freedom of movement with regards to the EU? Apparently, Kurdish refugees from Turkey have been coming to Germany for quite some time now. They have been one of the largest asylum seeker groups, before the gates of hades where thrown open last summer.
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Mar 10, 2016 11:57
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Lagotto posted:http://balkanist.net/turkeys-mysterious-disappearing-refugees/ Yes, of course. Idiot Europe Magoo just forgot to subtract all those people leaving Turkey. Luckily, the brilliant journalists at balkanist.net noticed the discrepancy and saved the world. Thank God!
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Mar 10, 2016 12:11
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I'm sorry if this is the wrong place to ask but I really don't browse D&D that much and I can't find one anywhere: Is there a thread specifically dedicated to the "Brexit" (UK referendum on EU membership), or a thread which covers it in any reasonable amount of detail?
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Mar 10, 2016 14:07
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Dominionix posted:I'm sorry if this is the wrong place to ask but I really don't browse D&D that much and I can't find one anywhere: Is there a thread specifically dedicated to the "Brexit" (UK referendum on EU membership), or a thread which covers it in any reasonable amount of detail? There's no specific thread, it's been discussed both here and in the UKMT at times, I couldn't tell you off the top of my head whether either was in a reasonable amount of detail though tbh.
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Mar 10, 2016 14:18
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Mario is at it again, throwing money across Europe hoping some of it sticks and causes inflation.Dominionix posted:I'm sorry if this is the wrong place to ask but I really don't browse D&D that much and I can't find one anywhere: Is there a thread specifically dedicated to the "Brexit" (UK referendum on EU membership), or a thread which covers it in any reasonable amount of detail? The UKMT covers the topic in much more detail and variety (you get a lot of really crazy justifications for leaving) but the signal-to-noise ratio in that thread is really hard to bear at times.
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Mar 10, 2016 14:50
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GaussianCopula posted:Mario is at it again, throwing money across Europe hoping some of it sticks and causes inflation.
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Mar 10, 2016 15:01
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LemonDrizzle posted:He apparently had a couple of panzerschrecks in reserve to back up his beeg bazooka. He should just accept that he can't emulate fiscal policy without limits and stop this madness.
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Mar 10, 2016 15:08
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GaussianCopula posted:He should just accept that he can't emulate fiscal policy without limits and stop this madness. e: permitting the purchase of corporate bonds within a QE program is pretty bold, however.
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Mar 10, 2016 15:12
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LemonDrizzle posted:Perhaps if fiscal policy were more accommodating, he wouldn't need to take extraordinary measures to have any hope of reaching his treaty-mandated inflation target. The inflation target is not treaty mandated but a ECB governing council decision, the treaty just calls for the ECB to maintain price stability. LemonDrizzle posted:e: permitting the purchase of corporate bonds within a QE program is pretty bold, however. It was either that or deviating from the capital key, as there was simply not enough debt in certain countries to buy up and just imagine what would have happened if they did that? GaussianCopula fucked around with this message at 15:40 on Mar 10, 2016 |
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Mar 10, 2016 15:34
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https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/707991895960584192 oh god not again
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Mar 10, 2016 19:35
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To be honest that seems like pretty poor wording at the end there. I hope.
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Mar 10, 2016 19:43
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LGD posted:To be honest that seems like pretty poor wording at the end there. I hope. Heh, drat you for making me laugh at this.
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Mar 10, 2016 19:47
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LGD posted:To be honest that seems like pretty poor wording at the end there. I hope. lol
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Mar 10, 2016 21:38
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Yeah no this is non event.
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Mar 10, 2016 22:27
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Spree killers are like natural disasters at this point imho
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Mar 10, 2016 22:32
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"The Morning Star is read by the people who think the country ought to be run by another country. And the Daily Telegraph is read by people who think it is."
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Mar 10, 2016 23:09
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Coverage of Draghi's expanded QE program in the German press:   !!!!Our savings!!!!
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Mar 11, 2016 09:53
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At this point the most important question is probably which bubble is Mario fueling and how can you profit from its burst.
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Mar 11, 2016 11:19
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There are no winners in a currency war, just relentless retaliation until both sides realize that its futile.
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Mar 11, 2016 11:22
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Xoidanor posted:There are no winners in a currency war, just relentless retaliation until both sides realize that its futile. That's not even the objective. Draghi's primary objective is to keep state financing costs low by propping up their banks and to allow uncompetitive Euro countries to regain competitiveness without (too much) devaluation. The biggest bubble he is fueling therefore is government debt. But because Wolfi is a smart man that does not fall for the tricks of this feckless Italian, he simply lets the air out of the German government debt bubble on the other side by keeping his "Schwarze Null", which basically makes it an exercise in futility. Mario's wet dream is probably a Eurozone inflation of exactly 2% with Germany (and maybe the Netherlands) being the only outlier above it and everyone else keeping well below, thereby increasing their competitiveness without going through internal devaluation, but his chances of achieving that goal are about as good as those of me having a threesome with Scarlett Johansson and Jessica Alba tonight.
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Mar 11, 2016 11:36
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It's really rather amusing how, in the years prior to the euro crisis, the ECB held interest rates low to stimulate the German economy and thus fuelled the credit bubble in the GIIPS, and people are screaming bloody murder now that the situation is the reverse. It's almost as if the euro was a really bad idea.
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Mar 11, 2016 16:03
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I'd say it wasn't that bad of an idea. Just, as with everything, executed poorly. That seems to be a running theme when it comes to most anything European by now TBH. But the main worry for me is that, for the most part, no one in a position of power seems willing to learn from mistakes.
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Mar 11, 2016 16:14
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CrazyLoon posted:I'd say it wasn't that bad of an idea. Just, as with everything, executed poorly. Learn from mistakes? That's now how you spell double down. Better get on Merkel's level.
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Mar 11, 2016 16:16
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Pluskut Tukker posted:It's really rather amusing how, in the years prior to the euro crisis, the ECB held interest rates low to stimulate the German economy and thus fuelled the credit bubble in the GIIPS, and people are screaming bloody murder now that the situation is the reverse. It's almost as if the euro was a really bad idea. A) Doing the same thing and expecting different results is the definition of insanity. B) The situation is not reversed. The ECB is continuing to stimulate the German economy, or to be more precise, it's financing the refugee crisis/Wolfi's Schwarze Null. They just had to expand the types of debt they are allowed to buy under QE because there is too little German debt available. C) Southern Europe lacks the economic infrastructure that can be stimulated.
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Mar 11, 2016 16:32
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