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B B
Dec 1, 2005

snakeandbake posted:

9/11ary Clinton

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLkFtfyWK3Q

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reignofevil
Nov 7, 2008

rscott posted:

My prediction is that Sanders loses by less than 5 points

I predict Hillary being up by seven or eight points.

MC Nietzche
Oct 26, 2004

by exmarx
I think the upper bound for Hillary is 60-40, but I predict 57-43.

pathetic little tramp
Dec 12, 2005

by Hillary Clinton's assassins
Fallen Rib
This is the thread for smashmouth you're an all star remixes right, htere's only one good one

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAsPeY8BsQU

big business man
Sep 30, 2012

Clinton is gonna win NY by 6-10 points, imho

B B
Dec 1, 2005

this_is_hard posted:

Clinton is gonna win NY by 6-10 points, imho

Why do you think that?

Deki
May 12, 2008

It's Hammer Time!

this_is_hard posted:

Clinton is gonna win NY by 6-10 points, imho

yeah prob

Harlock
Jan 15, 2006

Tap "A" to drink!!!

Everyone will finally get the neocon candidate they sorely missed from the GOP side

Homeless Friend
Jul 16, 2007
I've got a friend in the military who seriously needed to die anyway.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

B B posted:

Why do you think that?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_democratic_presidential_primary-4221.html

The polls show Clinton having an aggregate lead of 11.7 points over the last week with even the most favorable poll having Clinton still up by 6. Sanders has typically done about 1-2 points higher than he polls if you don't include Michigan (because :lol: if you do) so a 6-10 point victory for Clinton is about right.

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake

These fuckers are going to get me stuck in New York just like they bogged me down in Missouri, aren't they?

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

Necc0 posted:

These fuckers are going to get me stuck in New York just like they bogged me down in Missouri, aren't they?

TYT is funded by predictit dollars and they need to sell their shares

Mad Doctor Cthulhu
Mar 3, 2008

New York's polls seem to be giving Clinton a double-digit lead. Just like the ones in Michigan were.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that they tie of she leads by 5%. This is going straight to the convention.

big business man
Sep 30, 2012

B B posted:

Why do you think that?

polling data, experience in politics, a general recognition of reality

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

Mad Doctor Cthulhu posted:

New York's polls seem to be giving Clinton a double-digit lead. Just like the ones in Michigan were.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that they tie of she leads by 5%. This is going straight to the convention.

going to be lazy here and just say somewhere around Clinton +11.7 which is exactly what the poll aggregates currently say

pathetic little tramp
Dec 12, 2005

by Hillary Clinton's assassins
Fallen Rib

Necc0 posted:

These fuckers are going to get me stuck in New York just like they bogged me down in Missouri, aren't they?

Hope and pray Hillary wins by 20% so the provisionals don't even need to be counted, lol.



Ride or die.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

Mad Doctor Cthulhu posted:

New York's polls seem to be giving Clinton a double-digit lead. Just like the ones in Michigan were.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that they tie of she leads by 5%. This is going straight to the convention.

Michigan was horribly polled and had a historically bad model though.

Bernice Anders
Feb 26, 2016

by zen death robot
Remember Michigan! We just need a 1 in 1000 polling error in our candidates favor the rest of the way in every state! We got this!! I just emptied my bank account to Bernie!! MATCH ME!!

Fidel Castronaut
Dec 25, 2004

Houston, we're Havana problem.
Where did the post about how the guy filing the lawsuit is a fraud? I swear it was in this thread but I can't find it. Doesn't look like it's in the general dem primary thread either.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

this_is_hard posted:

polling data, experience in politics, a general recognition of reality

Ah, okay. Cool. Thanks for clarifying. :hfive:

rscott
Dec 10, 2009

A Winner is Jew posted:

Michigan was horribly polled and had a historically bad model though.

Most of the polls I've read the methods for seem to be modeling turnout based on the 2004 and 2008 which I think are underestimating turnout for 18-29s a bit

Bernice Anders
Feb 26, 2016

by zen death robot

rscott posted:

Most of the polls I've read the methods for seem to be modeling turnout based on the 2004 and 2008 which I think are underestimating turnout for 18-29s a bit

Pretty hard to underestimate millennial turnout. They can't even put the bong down long enough to register properly.

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme
looks like the dem thread is pulling far ahead of the gop one.

Bloody Queef
Mar 23, 2012

by zen death robot

A Winner is Jew posted:

Yeah, they can't call CA in the general until our polls close even though everyone knows it's going to the dems.

I really like this approach since electoral results reporting while the polls are still open could, in theory, have an effect on how people vote. Or they could stay home if the news projected the winner and then the down ticket suffers.

Plus, it's not like they've ever called it wrong.

E: phone posting typos because I'm a moron.

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

Concerned Citizen posted:

looks like the dem thread is pulling far ahead of the gop one.

It's because this forum's full of godless liberals.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

Bloody Queef posted:

I really like this approach since electoral results reporting while the polls are still open could, in theory, have an effect on how people vote. Or they could stay home if the news projects the winner and the down ticket surfers.

Plus, it's not like they've ever called it wrong.

:agreed:

It's also fun a poo poo to watch CA completely obliterate the EV vote lead that republicans typically get from the Midwest / Texas a few hours earlier once polls close here.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Bloody Queef posted:

I really like this approach since electoral results reporting while the polls are still open could, in theory, have an effect on how people vote. Or they could stay home if the news projected the winner and then the down ticket suffers.

Plus, it's not like they've ever called it wrong.

E: phone posting typos because I'm a moron.

I think we could save a lot of money on elections if only people in swing states voted, though.

Fidel Castronaut
Dec 25, 2004

Houston, we're Havana problem.

Concerned Citizen posted:

looks like the dem thread is pulling far ahead of the gop one.

Because a bunch of us want the schadenfreude of people melting down on twitter, reddit, and here when Bernie loses. Nobody is going to meltdown at the results of the GOP primary in NY. That thread is low energy!

Homeless Friend
Jul 16, 2007
We should think of some new bernie thread titles for after

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

pathetic little tramp posted:

Hope and pray Hillary wins by 20% so the provisionals don't even need to be counted, lol.



Ride or die.

With Trump getting serious and the GOP race getting boring, I hope we get some court cases that rage on for another six weeks. Chaos must reign!

Homeless Friend
Jul 16, 2007
Bernie 2016: Left in the dust

A Neurotic Jew
Feb 17, 2012

by exmarx
Toast. Bernt Bread.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

Homeless Friend posted:

We should think of some new bernie thread titles for after

i haven't studied how to win yet

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008
Predicting 55-45 Clinton.

Atoramos
Aug 31, 2003

Jim's now a Blind Cave Salamander!


If anyone cares, I can confirm voter registration is fubar. We've voted here and are registered to our party for the last, oh, six years. Today my wife was told the only registration they have was in Yonkers and she wasn't on the list, had her fill a provisional. While we were there two more people came in and couldn't vote, the staff claimed the party was 'angry' any time they called up to ask questions. We have never lived in Yonkers and she's been 'on the list' for the last six years, we vote in every election including local...

I pulled her up online and confirmed the site claims 'registered Dem in Yonkers'. We have never, ever lived in Yonkers or had any Yonkers address associated with us.

SavageBastard
Nov 16, 2007
Professional Lurker

OAquinas posted:

It'll be interesting if Sanders keeps her from reaching the nomination via pledged delegates, though--which he can easily do as long as he avoids losing by more than 10% for the remainder of the elections (including tonight). At that point it comes down to superdelegates to put her over and that will undoubtedly make some people salty.

The nomination number is based on total delegates. Expecting to reach it without superdelegates is silly. All she has to crush that storyline is win the majority of elected delegates.

No I'm not excluding the reality that Sanders supporters will blindly repost poo poo on facebook to the contrary.

bird cooch
Jan 19, 2007

Atoramos posted:

If anyone cares, I can confirm voter registration is fubar. We've voted here and are registered to our party for the last, oh, six years. Today my wife was told the only registration they have was in Yonkers and she wasn't on the list, had her fill a provisional. While we were there two more people came in and couldn't vote, the staff claimed the party was 'angry' any time they called up to ask questions. We have never lived in Yonkers and she's been 'on the list' for the last six years, we vote in every election including local...

I pulled her up online and confirmed the site claims 'registered Dem in Yonkers'. We have never, ever lived in Yonkers or had any Yonkers address associated with us.

The only thing i took away from that is how funny the word yonkers is.



Yonkers.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Atoramos posted:

If anyone cares, I can confirm voter registration is fubar. We've voted here and are registered to our party for the last, oh, six years. Today my wife was told the only registration they have was in Yonkers and she wasn't on the list, had her fill a provisional. While we were there two more people came in and couldn't vote, the staff claimed the party was 'angry' any time they called up to ask questions. We have never lived in Yonkers and she's been 'on the list' for the last six years, we vote in every election including local...

I pulled her up online and confirmed the site claims 'registered Dem in Yonkers'. We have never, ever lived in Yonkers or had any Yonkers address associated with us.

Who was she planning to vote for?

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Atoramos posted:

If anyone cares, I can confirm voter registration is fubar. We've voted here and are registered to our party for the last, oh, six years. Today my wife was told the only registration they have was in Yonkers and she wasn't on the list, had her fill a provisional. While we were there two more people came in and couldn't vote, the staff claimed the party was 'angry' any time they called up to ask questions. We have never lived in Yonkers and she's been 'on the list' for the last six years, we vote in every election including local...

I pulled her up online and confirmed the site claims 'registered Dem in Yonkers'. We have never, ever lived in Yonkers or had any Yonkers address associated with us.

Is Yonkers even a real place? Sounds made up.

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crazy cloud
Nov 7, 2012

by Cyrano4747
Lipstick Apathy

Bernice Anders posted:

I deal in reality, not faith. It's why I'm not a Bernie voter.

There is no such thing as reality outside cogito ergo sum, faith is all there is

You're posting back and forth with figments of your imagination, life is but a dream, amigo

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