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  • Locked thread
Kasumeat
Nov 18, 2004


Kashuno posted:

I feel like if there are protection roles out there this is a good time to claim there is probably only 1 scum left.

Yes but wait a sec let me type something

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Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

H O L E
M A D N E S S


Grimey Drawer

Kasumeat
Nov 18, 2004


OK I've thought about it and I think it's not a good idea to claim quite yet. The reason being is that we might be in a single-town-PR setup. If that's the case, it's a really bad trade for town. We get 1 confirmed town which is good but is a relatively small help at this point with 7 still alive. And that's basically all we get out of it, because both of the single-town-PR setups can't protect themselves so our PR gets NKed instantly. Our PRs can still claim if they get to L-1 and scum are in no position to counterclaim, so we would basically get absolutely nothing out of it. If we're setup B, for example, this would be disastrous.

If it's a double-PR setup, it's a little better, but still unnecessary. Again, what do we get out of it? We instantly get 2 conftown, but again if we L-1 either of them, they can just claim anyways.

In either situation, scum gets a lot of info. And right now there are no conftown in the game yet, so scum don't have any obvious NK targets. But we'd be giving them ones if we claimed.

If you have to claim, it's often better to claim 2 potential roles. For example, if you're Jailkeeper, a better claim would be "Jailkeeper or 1-shot BP" since that gives scum less info.

So Kash, your advice is really bad and scummy.
##vote Kash

Kasumeat
Nov 18, 2004


It's pretty unlikely that we have setup B thanks to the lack of NK, but it still doesn't make any sense to claim yet.

Juchero
Feb 15, 2008


Wedge Regret

scum bustered

##vote Kashuno

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

H O L E
M A D N E S S


Grimey Drawer

I'm on mobile atm but the fact you think scum would try to push a claim at lylo-2 and draw a huge target on themselves is laughable hope this helps

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

H O L E
M A D N E S S


Grimey Drawer

Absurd Revolver posted:

yeah seriously i just wanted to make sure

##vote Mayor Glowku

Absurd Revolver posted:

Speaking of close votes

##vote Quidnose

Let's see what happens at - 1


Absurd Revolver posted:

scum bustered

##vote Kashuno


AR doesn't offer a single opinion on their votes and no game related posts all game. Swoops in on a shoddy at best case with a blank vote and doesn't put in any effort. Their vote on quid screams fake. ##vote AR

Kasumeat
Nov 18, 2004


Kashuno posted:

I'm on mobile atm but the fact you think scum would try to push a claim at lylo-2 and draw a huge target on themselves is laughable hope this helps

Then what was your purpose in rolefishing? Scum is indeed in a really bad spot this game which is why they're more likely to gambit.

Juchero
Feb 15, 2008


Wedge Regret

Kashuno posted:

AR doesn't offer a single opinion on their votes and no game related posts all game. Swoops in on a shoddy at best case with a blank vote and doesn't put in any effort. Their vote on quid screams fake. ##vote AR

Nice OMGUS scum.

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

H O L E
M A D N E S S


Grimey Drawer

Absurd Revolver posted:

Nice OMGUS scum.

An OMGUS doesn't have actual casing behind it buddy

Kasumeat
Nov 18, 2004


Kashuno posted:

I'm on mobile atm but the fact you think scum would try to push a claim at lylo-2 and draw a huge target on themselves is laughable hope this helps

This post right here makes it clear that you're aware of how anti-town pushing a claim right now is. So why the gently caress would you do so if you're town?

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

H O L E
M A D N E S S


Grimey Drawer

Kasumeat posted:

Then what was your purpose in rolefishing? Scum is indeed in a really bad spot this game which is why they're more likely to gambit.


Kasumeat posted:

This post right here makes it clear that you're aware of how anti-town pushing a claim right now is. So why the gently caress would you do so if you're town?

..? My post is pretty clear that claiming would be PRO town. Idk how you're trying to represent it as me thinking it is anti town. Just because I'm well aware that people would find the idea scummy doesn't mean it is isn't advantageous to town

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

H O L E
M A D N E S S


Grimey Drawer

I mean if you are so sure go ahead and lynch me town is in a great spot I don't mind being mislynched here but AR is clearly scum and I like perfect games

Kasumeat
Nov 18, 2004


You're contradicting yourself. If your rolefishing was pro-town, it'd make you look town, which is always desirable.

If there's some logical flaw in my assertion that rolefishing is anti-town at this point, please point it out. You tried to get people to claim, but you haven't explained WHY it's pro-town. I don't see it at all.

In the meantime, this just looks like a desperate scum pulling a "too scummy to be scum" gambit.

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

H O L E
M A D N E S S


Grimey Drawer

A call to claim, even if advantageous for town, is usually met with skepticism and resistance by town because it does give scum information. However if there is a doc in this setup, each town now has a 25% chance of hitting scum. Those odds are high and the scum player is forced to eliminate the doc or the confirmed town tonight which leads to the doc having a 50/50 chance of choosing the right target for their doc if they can self doc or repeat doc

Kasumeat
Nov 18, 2004


There's only a 1/3 chance we have a doc. Maybe 40% if you eliminate setup B for being very unlikely. But then less than 40% since we had a no-kill night, meaning setup 1 or A are more likely than a doc setup. Either way, it's significantly less likely we have a doc than not, meaning claiming is bad more often than not.

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

H O L E
M A D N E S S


Grimey Drawer

Kasumeat posted:

There's only a 1/3 chance we have a doc. Maybe 40% if you eliminate setup B for being very unlikely. But then less than 40% since we had a no-kill night, meaning setup 1 or A are more likely than a doc setup. Either way, it's significantly less likely we have a doc than not, meaning claiming is bad more often than not.

It's interesting how your first post was "yes I agree about claiming" and then you switch to no and it makes me scum. Also, remind me why the odds are so low we have a doctor?

Kasumeat
Nov 18, 2004


Kashuno posted:

It's interesting how your first post was "yes I agree about claiming" and then you switch to no and it makes me scum. Also, remind me why the odds are so low we have a doctor?

Yeah I thought about it and realised how terrible an idea it is.

Based purely on the setup, 1/3 will spawn Doctors, 2/3 will not. Pretty straightforward. The lack of NK makes setups 1 and A more likely because Jailer is twice as likely to prevent a NK as Doc and then BP helps too.

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

H O L E
M A D N E S S


Grimey Drawer

Oh I'm a loving idiot and didn't realize this was a matrix6

Juchero
Feb 15, 2008


Wedge Regret

Kashuno posted:

Oh I'm a loving idiot and didn't realize this was a matrix6

well that makes what your saying make a lot more sense.

if you setup specced wrong, then i'd believe your mistake.

##unvote

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

H O L E
M A D N E S S


Grimey Drawer

Hrm AR I still don't like your vote and think you were way too opportunistic

Juchero
Feb 15, 2008


Wedge Regret

Kashuno posted:

Hrm AR I still don't like your vote and think you were way too opportunistic

fair enough, but i believe you that you made an honest mistake

Kasumeat
Nov 18, 2004


Kasumeat posted:

It's pretty unlikely that we have setup B thanks to the lack of NK, but it still doesn't make any sense to claim yet.

Kasumeat posted:

There's only a 1/3 chance we have a doc. Maybe 40% if you eliminate setup B for being very unlikely. But then less than 40% since we had a no-kill night, meaning setup 1 or A are more likely than a doc setup. Either way, it's significantly less likely we have a doc than not, meaning claiming is bad more often than not.

Kash, I mentioned Setup B 3 times before you claimed you didn't realise this: my original casing post, plus these 2 posts dedicated entirely to setup spec. How do you possibly miss this?

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

H O L E
M A D N E S S


Grimey Drawer

Kasumeat posted:

Kash, I mentioned Setup B 3 times before you claimed you didn't realise this: my original casing post, plus these 2 posts dedicated entirely to setup spec. How do you possibly miss this?

I had thought you were putting forward different possible setups and just labeling them a and b

Kasumeat
Nov 18, 2004


##unvote Kash
for now. Still highly suspicious.

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

H O L E
M A D N E S S


Grimey Drawer

I'm not moving my vote right now

Nutsack Rangoon
Mar 30, 2010

EVERYTHING IS NUMBERED HERE. THE MONSTER IS ZERO.


##vote ypm

scum = busted

gj doc saving me last night. wp.

Juchero
Feb 15, 2008


Wedge Regret

Nutsack Rangoon posted:

##vote ypm

scum = busted

gj doc saving me last night. wp.

explain yourself mister

IllegallySober
Aug 25, 2004

"Winning is great, sure, but if you are really going to do something in life, the secret is learning how to lose. Nobody goes undefeated all the time. If you can pick up after a crushing defeat, and go on to win again, you are going to be a champion someday."
(Wilma Rudolph)



Nutsack Rangoon posted:

##vote ypm

scum = busted

gj doc saving me last night. wp.

I am intrigued by this. Continue.

Kasumeat
Nov 18, 2004


Seriously don't just drop something like that and leave, it kills all the other discussion

Kasumeat
Nov 18, 2004


It's a pretty clear that he's claiming Tracker and saying that he tracked YPM trying to kill him and the Doc protected him, but I'm not seeing how he would know YPM isn't the Doc.

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

H O L E
M A D N E S S


Grimey Drawer

Kasumeat posted:

It's a pretty clear that he's claiming Tracker and saying that he tracked YPM trying to kill him and the Doc protected him, but I'm not seeing how he would know YPM isn't the Doc.

It's actually not clear at all

Kasumeat
Nov 18, 2004


If this isn't a fakeclaim and it's just a weird Tracker claim, there's a 50/50 chance than YPM is Doc or Scum.

Or maybe there's something I'm not seeing but I can't see how that post could mean anything else.

Kasumeat
Nov 18, 2004


Kashuno posted:

It's actually not clear at all

What else could that post mean though? I can't comprehend anything else

IllegallySober
Aug 25, 2004

"Winning is great, sure, but if you are really going to do something in life, the secret is learning how to lose. Nobody goes undefeated all the time. If you can pick up after a crushing defeat, and go on to win again, you are going to be a champion someday."
(Wilma Rudolph)



I don't really understand either. More details, please.

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

H O L E
M A D N E S S


Grimey Drawer

its not a claim at all omg.

Kasumeat
Nov 18, 2004


Kashuno posted:

its not a claim at all omg.

So what is it?

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

H O L E
M A D N E S S


Grimey Drawer

nothing until he actually comes back and talks.

Kasumeat
Nov 18, 2004


Fair enough but it's a preetttty big crumb.

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Juchero
Feb 15, 2008


Wedge Regret

If it's true, then doesn't that prove your theory incorrect, Kasu? There being a doc, that is.

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