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Well, so it looks like I'm getting voted out. Whatever, it's probably the right call. Let me get my thoughts down on paper. I don't think scum can night kill tonight. They would be risking a track by IS and a block by Hal, and it would be a 50/50 shot of getting tracked and picking wrong. If they don't kill IS or Hal, then there are two absolutely perfectly confirmed town and the scum would be voted out immediately. So, it will be Kas and AR as the choices. PLEASE do not immediately vote Kas. I think AR is the scum thinking on it. The dude probably missed deadline first night and cruised on his supposed confirmed status. He hasn't even been playing, he has been laying low under the radar. So PLEASE look at AR. I really don't see Kas as the scum, but when I started today he seemed like the logical choice. Anyway, I'm going to bed. Don't gently caress this up.
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May 26, 2016 06:20
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| # ? Apr 24, 2024 17:46 |
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The only thing that stops me from absolutely declaring AR the scum is I don't know why he wouldn't do a night kill tonight. He wasn't at risk of getting tracked
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May 26, 2016 06:24
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Actually if he killed me or Kas, I guess you guys would have figured it was him since neither me or Kas would kill each other, and maybe he either got blocked by Hal (since I'm assuming Hal doc'd IS since IS would confirm me. Hopefully Hal didn't doc tonight to confirm AR did not do the night kill
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May 26, 2016 06:26
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I don't know why I think Kas not killing means AR is scum. Kas wouldn't want to kill either because if he kills and you track me, it's just process of elimination. But the only thing you can really be critical of Kas for is that his play is just too good, while AR would have been voted out a long time ago had it not been for Hal protecting him. I'm sorry I'm spamming the thread, this game has been on my mind a lot for some reason
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May 26, 2016 07:15
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##unvote I don't like this spot either. I was thinking about AR, but figured the no-kill-attempt gambit on N1 is just too improbable. With a double-goon setup, they know there's only a 50/50 chance of a Tracker, and significantly less than that of being tracked. But I neglected to think of what YPM mentioned: a missed deadline. YPM is definitely a process-of-elimination vote for me, not a scum-read. With one post's exception (which could be read to have a different tone that I initially thought) I've really liked his posting the past couple of days. He's basically saying "the sensible votes are for me or AR now, don't vote Kasu" which is a pretty loving ballsy thing for scum to do. AR on the other hand is just coasting, as YPM said. Absurd Revolver posted:Yes, according to our resident tracker. I really don't like this post. I really don't like that post where AR lied about not ever endgaming. If not for that D1 track, I"d be voting AR in a heartbeat. But you know what, at this point I think the missed deadline is more probable than YPM scum. ##vote AR
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May 26, 2016 07:44
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##unvote AR was posting right before and after the hammer. A missed deadline doesn't seem likely.
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May 26, 2016 07:48
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Paranoia talking: we are 100%, no doubt about it, absolutely positively sure Hal and IS are not scum, right? Like I read over the OP just to make sure I wasn't misunderstanding. Unless AR or you just failed to mention they are a PR, they can't be scum, right?
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May 26, 2016 07:55
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It just feels like we are missing something so huge here
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May 26, 2016 07:55
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It just doesn't make sense. This whole thing. There have been no night kills, and by all accounts it should be simple but it isn't. I hope you are scum, Kas because if you are you are the best at acting town. The scummiest fucker here is one of the "confirmed towns" and we have two towns that absolutely no one has questioned. I mean maybe it's really easy and you are scum or whatever but I just don't know how to "get" this game
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May 26, 2016 07:59
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And you are right about the AR missing deadline thing. It just seems unlikely, but everything seems unlikely from my perspective.
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May 26, 2016 08:01
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Right now I'm just preparing for the end game where Hal was the scum all along
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May 26, 2016 08:02
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Maybe it wasn't a missed deadline. Maybe the scum figured they were so behind early that they should never NK and hope that the Tracker saves them. I find it hard to believe that these are ALL doctor blocks.Absurd Revolver posted:I'm going to go with your advice Kashuno, I really took it to heart. It's this post. I loving hate it. Look at the tone he's talking to Kash with. He's just saying "it doesn't really matter who we lynch here, EZ game boys let's just take 'er home." There's something about the tone that makes it sound like he knows Kash is town. ##vote AR
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May 26, 2016 08:02
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Unless there is a townie who has a PR and somehow hasn't claimed yet, we are 100% confirmed to have a Tracker and Doc, yes.
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May 26, 2016 08:04
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AR's play just screams coasting. Maybe it's the missed deadline, maybe quid saw the writing on the wall and told AR to hold the night kill (nothing against AR, it just seems he doesn't have enough experience to see that far ahead, also I haven't seen anything to suggest competence during this game so yes everything against AR) or maybe they wanted to experiment and see if they can win as scum without a night kill. I don't know, I just know his play screams coasting. I know that IF AR were to withhold a night kill to gain credibility, this is how he would play. So ##vote AR
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May 26, 2016 08:11
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You know it's really hard to be town hero when you post the same exact case a little earlier than me because I needed to go back and insult AR when I was reading it over
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May 26, 2016 08:12
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##unvote Something isn't right and I can't put my finger on it. (I woke up in the middle of the night just to check the convo in this game. I think I'm sick in the head.) The two of you (Kas and YPM) are pretty close to having me convinced but I suddenly realized Hal hasn't put in a vote of any kind since day 1 and that bothers me. It's probably nothing but I want to look one more time in the morning with fresh eyes and do some thinking before I re-vote.
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May 26, 2016 11:57
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To be clear, this does NOT mean I want to lynch Hal. I just want to do a little more thinking.
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May 26, 2016 12:18
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Lots of town paranoia in this thread! I'm actually the one who suggested AR could be withholding/have forgotten the kill N1, but there isn't even any point in really thinking about that until 3 people are left and he's one of them. I've had bad feelings on and off about YPM all game and I have learned one thing in my years of mafia and that's to trust my instincts. Depending on how Allen handles a stalemate we cannot lose. Kill YPM today (probably win game), if we don't lose, track Kasu/AR at night, I don't protect. If scum refuse to kill, we NL and it's stalemate til Allen makes one side or the other so something. Most mods would force scum to kill but that would sort of be on him though and he could go either way. Or we man up, kill YPM (probably win game) and if that doesn't work settle the AR/Kasumeat debacle tomorrow with me and IS.
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May 26, 2016 13:42
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Well actually there is a flaw in that plan, I am an idiot. Still, kill YPM, figure out the rest tomorrow if we haven't won.
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May 26, 2016 13:44
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Wow, from confirmed to almost lynched overnight. I don't have anything to say to defend myself, and you're right, the tracker result might not mean anything. I have tried not to coast, but this game has been in a sorta weird place for days now. I don't know what to do when there's only one scum left to find, it feels like a needle in a haystack situation. Go ahead and lynch me, town will still win inevitably.
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May 26, 2016 14:15
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Also when I flip VT you'll see I was being entirely honest with both you and Kashuno, and that in and of itself is worth it.
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May 26, 2016 15:27
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IllegallySober posted:(I woke up in the middle of the night just to check the convo in this game. I think I'm sick in the head.) Haha seriously I keep waking up with foggy mafia thoughts running through my head 2 hours before I have to be up
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May 26, 2016 17:50
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##vote YPM Obviously I'm still really torn on this, but I don't hate it. I could see a scum YPM's posts on AR being a last-ditch effort. It's a really loving nice play to make as scum, but a good player could do it. The thing about the missed deadline is a little dubious. Oh and Hal, definitely do protect tonight. It's 100% correct..
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May 26, 2016 18:07
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Votecount for Day 4  Your Personal Muse (1): IllegallySober, Kasumeat, Absurd Revolver (1): Kasumeat, Kasumeat (0): Your Personal Muse, Not Voting (3): Absurd Revolver, Hal Incandenza, IllegallySoberThere are 5 living players. Elimination occurs at 3 votes! The current deadline is May 28th, 2016 at 2 a.m. CDT -- that's in about 1 day, 12 hours.
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May 26, 2016 19:35
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##vote YPM I feel pretty confident here
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May 26, 2016 20:16
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Do me a favor and don't hammer without me. I want to make a strategy post and talk out the different scenarios before twilight/night hits. Working on it now.
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May 26, 2016 20:18
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IllegallySober posted:Do me a favor and don't hammer without me. I want to make a strategy post and talk out the different scenarios before twilight/night hits. Working on it now. We got plenty of time, no need to rush things.
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May 26, 2016 20:19
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If AR wins by chance I'll be so mad
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May 26, 2016 21:19
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Your Personal Muse posted:If AR wins by chance I'll be so mad If I wanted to win, wouldn't I just hammer you right now?
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May 26, 2016 21:25
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Absurd Revolver posted:If I wanted to win, wouldn't I just hammer you right now? no you would still have to make it through another day at least
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May 26, 2016 21:29
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Hal Incandenza posted:no you would still have to make it through another day at least Huh, could have sworn. Either way, town's winning this. I don't see scum recovering a win even at this point.
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May 26, 2016 21:33
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Seriously if Kas wins its because he played a really solid game
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May 26, 2016 21:54
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But AR has just been coasting off this confirmed town stuff
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May 26, 2016 21:55
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I feel exactly the same about you heh
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May 26, 2016 21:56
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YPM what did I do to piss you off so badly? I win when town wins, go ahead and lynch me if you don't want me around.
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May 26, 2016 22:02
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IllegallySober posted:Do me a favor and don't hammer without me. I want to make a strategy post and talk out the different scenarios before twilight/night hits. Working on it now. I haven't forgotten about this but my new PC decided it had to update Windows 10 RIGHT NOW and what I was going to post is way too much for mobile typing to risk the Awful App eating it.
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May 26, 2016 22:26
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So this is meant to be a summary post of where we stand now as I understand it (this is probably overkill and irrelevant for most of you but because I'm new at this I'm typing it out in hopes it helps me at the very least. I'll stick a tl;dr at the end) We have five of us left as it stands now- one of whom is scum. Confirmed Town Tracker: myself Confirmed Town Power Role, assumed Doc: Hal Incandenza (he says he's the Doc; no one ever counter-claimed that; when I tracked him the return message was "he was tracked to himself," so he has to be a Power Role of some sort; based on the Matrix6 setup the only other role he could be is a One-Shot Bulletproof Townie and I would think the message I got in that case would be worded differently; so, I have to assume he is what he's claimed.) Unknown: Your Personal Muse, Kasumeat, Absurd Revolver We have had no night kills the entire game. Whether this is intentional or Doc-blocked is unknown at this point. Day 1- Lynched Quidnose (Non-PR scum), Mod-killed Mayor Glowku (Town) Night 1- No kill (I tracked AR, got "they have gone nowhere". Hal says he protected Nutsack. Night One was the full 24 hours.) Day 2- Lynched Nutsack Rangoon (Town) Night 2- No kill (I tracked Hal, got "tracked to himself," Hal confirmed he protected himself Night 2. Night 2 ended early after 12 hours) Day 3- Lynched Kashuno (Town) Night 3- No kill (I tracked Kasumeat, got "they have gone nowhere". Hal presumably protected me- is this confirmed? Night 3 ended early after 8 hours) Projections The only real choices to lynch are Kasu, YPM or AR. If we lynch one of these three and are correct, the game is obviously over. If we lynch one of these three and are wrong, that leaves two confirmed town and two unknown. Hal pretty much has to protect me Night 4 because if I die Town loses the leverage. Hal could die to scum and I lose my protection going forward- but if scum makes a kill they've outed themselves (because either I track them and see it or the person I track goes nowhere- so process of elimination, we know who it is and lynch them Day 5 and the game is over.) If they don't kill, though, we lynch one of the two remaining unknowns Day 5. If we are right, the game is over. If we are wrong again, though, that leaves myself, Hal, and the scum Night 5. If scum gets a successful kill Night 5 (and it would be a 50-50 shot who Hal protects at that point because we both have to live through Night 5!), doesn't that end the game and scum wins? Scum would have no reason not to kill Hal Night 4- but Hal and I had claimed roles during Day 2. Seemed like scum should have assumed Hal would have protected himself after the claim which would have left me open to death Night 2. Why didn't I die Night 2? I guess because Hal blocked the kill on himself. Nights 2 and 3 ended before the full 24 hours which tells me that everyone got their actions in but Night 1 didn't. So tracking AR that night really didn't make a difference, IF he's the scum, because if he didn't get an action in I would have gotten the same result either way. Here's my questions: * Do I have the projections right for what happens going forward- specifically the worst-case scenario for Night 5/Day 6? * Did Hal actually protect me Night 3? * Does anything else jump out to anyone?
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May 27, 2016 00:54
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FYI, I'm also going to be offline for the next 5-6 hours or so at least, will check in ASAP
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May 27, 2016 01:13
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IllegallySober posted:So this is meant to be a summary post of where we stand now as I understand it (this is probably overkill and irrelevant for most of you but because I'm new at this I'm typing it out in hopes it helps me at the very least. I'll stick a tl;dr at the end) 1. Your projections are correct, we're actually in a worse position than I thought. 2. If he didn't, we should probably discuss the alternatives. 3. I'm still suspect of YPM over others, but that's all. This is a weird game.
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May 27, 2016 01:16
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| # ? Apr 24, 2024 17:46 |
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Your thinking is sound. I don't have much to add. Just that night length is dependent on both night-action submissions and mod availability, so you can't draw conclusions about anything with absolute certainty.
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May 27, 2016 01:38
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