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double nine posted:Either I'm dumb or sleep-deprived, certainly both. How do I read this? What does the y-axis mean? X-axis: electoral votes Y-axis: % chance of Clinton getting that exact number of electoral votes
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Jun 1, 2016 13:41
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double nine posted:Either I'm dumb or sleep-deprived, certainly both. How do I read this? What does the y-axis mean? the key takeaway is that in the overwhelmingly gigantic majority of situations, clinton would win. y axis means there's n% chance of exactly the number of EVs for a candidate indicated by the blue bar . . . so for instance, it looks like there is almost a 9% chance, according to this model, of clinton getting ~345 EVs
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Jun 1, 2016 13:44
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It would also be nice if they would do a "cumulative" format where you're seeing a 67% chance of Hillary taking at least 271 electoral votes, a 87% chance of at least 300 electoral votes, etc (my numbers here are fake)
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Jun 1, 2016 13:46
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double nine posted:Either I'm dumb or sleep-deprived, certainly both. How do I read this? What does the y-axis mean? The red line is the 269-269 tied electoral vote line. Everything to the left is a Trump victory, and everything to the right is a Hillary victory.
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Jun 1, 2016 13:46
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The red bar is actually Trump's victory bar. You can tell because it's yuuuge and goes off the chart and makes no sense in context, that's how you know it's a Trump Victory Bar
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Jun 1, 2016 13:46
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What percentage of the popular vote does Trump need to overcome the EV disadvantage? I've read that Democrats need to win up to 55% of the popular vote to retake the House so what is the number for Trump?
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Jun 1, 2016 13:55
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nachos posted:What percentage of the popular vote does Trump need to overcome the EV disadvantage? I've read that Democrats need to win up to 55% of the popular vote to retake the House so what is the number for Trump? He needs to get I think it was 5.7% more (and Clinton the same amount less) in every single state to win going off of 2012. 5.7 is the point where Colorado flips and he breaks 270 A tall order for a man who is within MoE in GA and AZ
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Jun 1, 2016 13:58
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FAUXTON posted:I didn't know Trump was into that whole six californias thing. 
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Jun 1, 2016 14:11
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I live in an important swing state. The daily robocalls about the impending doom of America (unless you vote for our candidate!) have already begun.
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Jun 1, 2016 14:22
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Cythereal posted:I live in an important swing state. The daily robocalls about the impending doom of America (unless you vote for our candidate!) have already begun. Only 159 days left until election day!
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Jun 1, 2016 14:39
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emdash posted:http://election.princeton.edu/2016/05/31/state-poll-snapshot-clinton-336-trump-202-ev-meta-margin-4-2/#more-15796 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM Except instead of "Yeah!" it's 
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Jun 1, 2016 14:39
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Whoever it was that recommended Keepin' It 1600, thanks. That podcast rules and is almost as good as It's All Politics.
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Jun 1, 2016 15:02
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Sir Tonk posted:Whoever it was that recommended Keepin' It 1600, thanks. That podcast rules and is almost as good as It's All Politics. What is this It's all Politics? Can't seem to find it on ITunes and am always looking for good political podcasts.
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Jun 1, 2016 15:06
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Mr Hootington posted:What is this It's all Politics? Can't seem to find it on ITunes and am always looking for good political podcasts. it would seem it ended, then became this: http://www.npr.org/podcasts/510310/npr-politics-podcast
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Jun 1, 2016 15:09
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Sir Tonk posted:Whoever it was that recommended Keepin' It 1600, thanks. That podcast rules and is almost as good as It's All Politics. Nthing this, they had Clinton's communication director on for the latest podcast and she was both great and they were all noticeably uncomfortable the whole time they were talking about Trump (or as they call it, the end of the republic). I look forward to hearing their podcast when they record it from Gitmo during the glorious Trumpenreich.
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Jun 1, 2016 15:12
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Haha I haven't read HuffPo in a while and just noticed this is at the end of every article about Trump:quote:Editor’s note: Donald Trump regularly incites political violence and is a serial liar, rampant xenophobe, racist, misogynist and birther who has repeatedly pledged to ban all Muslims — 1.6 billion members of an entire religion — from entering the U.S. This is actually journalistic integrity. If you feel like this is biased, the death of real reporting has brainwashed you.
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Jun 1, 2016 15:24
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Came for the updated avatar. Left disappointed. Boon fucked around with this message at 15:32 on Jun 1, 2016 |
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Jun 1, 2016 15:30
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We truly are stuck in our Yoda shame..
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Jun 1, 2016 15:34
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GOP Voters Are Rallying Behind Trump As If He Were Any Other Candidate quote:Donald Trump has been anything but a conventional Republican presidential candidate. He has, to take just one example, lashed out against the three previous GOP nominees, Mitt Romney, John McCain and George W. Bush. And the three most recent Republican standard-bearers, especially Romney, have attacked Trump. All the craziness made it seem for a while as if the Republican Party might come apart at the seams, and that might still happen. But nearly a month after Trump vanquished Ted Cruz and John Kasich from the primary race, Republican voters are rallying behind Trump as if he were any other nominee. Republican support for Trump is at 85%, about the same as it was for Romney after his nomination. Whether this changes or stays the same is still up in the air, but it's...interesting. On the plus side, if Republicans are willing to fall in line for Trump, we might also expect to see something similar after Hillary wraps it up (more than she already has, I mean).
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Jun 1, 2016 15:35
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Deep down my brain hasn't accepted that he isn't some fringe candidate. He is half of the presidential race. He has made ignorance cool and mainstream in a way I have never seen before.
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Jun 1, 2016 15:37
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SedanChair posted:This is actually journalistic integrity. If you feel like this is biased, the death of real reporting has brainwashed you. Journalistic integrity would be if huffpo paid their writers E: well maybe paying isn't all you need for integrity but they get no brownie points from me for just saying Trump is Bad MKay
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Jun 1, 2016 15:43
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Well today a Quinnipac poll was released with Clinton up 4 points while still struggling with the 18-34 demo hanging on to Bernie, a demo which will largely turn around and support her once she finally wins the nomination. Also, according to a helpful Reddit person it shows that Clinton is tied with white women which Obama lost by 14pts in 2012 and Trump is polling at 18% with Hispanics, 10pts lower than Mitt Romney got in 2012. Also remember that Rasmussen poll that had Trump up 5? They have a new one where Clinton is up 1. But continue freaking out to start the month I guess. Shimrra Jamaane fucked around with this message at 15:47 on Jun 1, 2016 |
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Jun 1, 2016 15:44
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Don't mind if I do. DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO BLOW THIS GRAAAAHHHH
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Jun 1, 2016 15:46
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Trump is exactly what Republicans always wanted though. A loud, sexist, racist, greedy, and hate filled man just like their dad was. Lead us orange daddy!
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Jun 1, 2016 15:46
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Is there a map where Hillary hits 270 before the west coast polls close?
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Jun 1, 2016 15:46
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DaveWoo posted:Yes, but wait until you see Trump's brilliant electoral strategy: Yes, please focus on trying to win Minnesota, California, and New York. Please pour Republican money into winning those states because that's not at all a complete waste of cash, no sir.
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Jun 1, 2016 15:47
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Xanderkish posted:GOP Voters Are Rallying Behind Trump As If He Were Any Other Candidate It's really funny that is going to end up being the dems who have the convention and unity issues after all the ink spilled about how tough a time trump would have uniting the party. Hillary going to have a super tough time getting berners to come out for her, despite what a lot of people are predicting using' conventional wisdom' and 2008 as an example. This ain't 08 and anyone who thinks it is has simply not been paying attention. Samurai Sanders posted:Deep down my brain hasn't accepted that he isn't some fringe candidate. He is half of the presidential race. He has made ignorance cool and mainstream in a way I have never seen before. And Hillary apparently had no idea how to respond, her last good day was pre Indiana. Poor Donald? You have got to be kidding me.
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Jun 1, 2016 15:48
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RZA Encryption posted:Is there a map where Hillary hits 270 before the west coast polls close? Yeah, any map where Clinton takes VA and FL. If she takes PA as well, immediately turn on Fox News to see Rove shoot himself on live television.
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Jun 1, 2016 15:48
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Well today a Quinnipac poll was released with Clinton up 4 points while still struggling with the 18-34 demo hanging on to Bernie, a demo which will largely turn around and support her once she finally wins the nomination. Also, according to a helpful Reddit person it shows that Clinton is tied with white women which Obama lost by 14pts in 2012 and Trump is polling at 18% with Hispanics, 10pts lower than Mitt Romney got in 2012. This is going to be a close election, anyone saying otherwise don't know what they are talking about.
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Jun 1, 2016 15:49
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DaveWoo posted:Yes, but wait until you see Trump's brilliant electoral strategy: so is he going to scream "ASIAN INVASION! ILLEGALS!" at white californians until he gets 100% white turnout here
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Jun 1, 2016 15:49
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tsa posted:This is going to be a close election, anyone saying otherwise don't know what they are talking about. OK there, bubble boy.
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Jun 1, 2016 15:50
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tsa posted:This is going to be a close election, anyone saying otherwise don't know what they are talking about. I mean, "close" is a relative term, in that I would call a 54/46 election "close" but in American election terms that would be a landslide.
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Jun 1, 2016 15:51
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It's going to be a blowout for Hillary.
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Jun 1, 2016 15:51
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Phone posted:Yeah, any map where Clinton takes VA and FL. If she takes PA as well, immediately turn on Fox News to see Rove shoot himself on live television. Rove is the kind of old school dog whistle conservative who would probably hate to see Trump win though.
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Jun 1, 2016 15:51
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tsa posted:
Hillary hasn't needed a good day for awhile. But whatever makes you feel better, I guess.
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Jun 1, 2016 15:53
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Bel_Canto posted:Yes, please focus on trying to win Minnesota, California, and New York. Please pour Republican money into winning those states because that's not at all a complete waste of cash, no sir. And please ignore Colorado, Nevada, and Arizona.
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Jun 1, 2016 15:54
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Well today a Quinnipac poll was released with Clinton up 4 points while still struggling with the 18-34 demo hanging on to Bernie, a demo which will largely turn around and support her once she finally wins the nomination. Also, according to a helpful Reddit person it shows that Clinton is tied with white women which Obama lost by 14pts in 2012 and Trump is polling at 18% with Hispanics, 10pts lower than Mitt Romney got in 2012. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate the importance of not letting a Republican pick out the next Supreme Court justice, but I'd really like to make some legislative progress rather than just continue treading water until the Republicans finally pull off a presidential win and go insane again.
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Jun 1, 2016 15:57
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Inferior Third Season posted:I'm not really worried about the presidential race, but the fact that we won't get Maximum Chaos to emerge out of the GOP convention, and with their rank-and-file quickly accepting Trump, means that the glimmer of hope that Democrats could win back the House and Senate, or at least get quite close in the House, is nearly gone. It's a long time to November.
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Jun 1, 2016 15:58
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Inferior Third Season posted:I'm not really worried about the presidential race, but the fact that we won't get Maximum Chaos to emerge out of the GOP convention, and with their rank-and-file quickly accepting Trump, means that the glimmer of hope that Democrats could win back the House and Senate, or at least get quite close in the House, is nearly gone. Democrats are going to win back the Senate, it's almost inevitable. They might lose it in 2018 but they will win it this year.
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Jun 1, 2016 15:59
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Rove is the kind of old school dog whistle conservative who would probably hate to see Trump win though.
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Jun 1, 2016 16:00
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