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  • Locked thread
Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Looks like Drawrof is wrapping up (at least for me) so I'll be here to annoy dongsbot. And also play.

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Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Yay, I'm a tree! Since dongs will probably try and get me lynched that probably means I'll get stumped and can continually harass him at my leisure.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Moatillata posted:

Somebody read the scum doc lol

It's just cuz it rhymes dood

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


3 mislynches and 2 successful primes is a perfect arsonist game with a win on D4.

Arsonists don't know if their primes are successful, so if the firefighter picks the right target, the arsonists will have no clue.

So, here are a couple options for getting to D4.

D1 no lynch, N1 prime, D2 no lynch, N2 prime, D3 lynch, N3 burn. D4 we have 1-3 dead, Ferngully can potentially out and say who she protected to have multiple confirmed town.

D1 no lynch, N1 prime, D2 no lynch, N2 burn, D3 lynch, N3 prime. D4 we have 1-2 dead, same situation and can reassess.

Basically, lynching Day 1 or Day 2 royally fucks us because we could potentially force ferngully to out herself, losing our only tool to block priming and confirm town.

In a normal set-up lynching is a powerful town tool, but here I think ferngully is our tool, and the arsonists have a lovely chance of burning her. If she has to out D3 that's fine, she can say who she doused N1 and N2 and based on how many people die on ignite we can potentially confirm some town.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


dongsbot 9000 posted:

what the gently caress

To know hope, or joy, or happiness, is to see it in the eyes of another as it turns to despair.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Max posted:

Since town get stumped, I think it's not a problem to lynch day 1 and 2. You lose some voting power but gain confirmed town opinions early on that will stick around. Scum are probably not going to waste a night priming a stump, which means that unless the player was already primed before they were lunched, they will probably be around for the whole game. Then you just hope they have good reads and opinions.

That confirms town, sure, but it gives arsons one less person to prime.

It's entirely possible to lynch a townie that's been primed, wasting a LOT of the arsonists time, and that benefits town.

Also, when they do ignite, if the number is less than it should, we can see who argued for/against lynching the primed townie, as arsonists would rather lynch townies that haven't been primed.

All in all, I think no lynches for two days give town a pretty strong advantage.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Max posted:

I don't agree with this from a strategy standpoint and also from a meta standpoint. I've already explained why I think, strategically, I would rather have some confirmed town around early to listen to.

The other big issue with your plan is that we will have two whole game days of getting zero information about flips, since scum don't kill immediately.

I don't know what we are going to learn after a certain point, and discussion will become stagnant and toxic, most likely.

Ok, even if we lynch completely randomly, there's a 1/9 chance of putting up Ferngully, our only tool to confirm town besides lynching them. If she's outed, she's dead. Nothing can save her.

Arsonists have to prime before they can kill, and they have 2 votes, so they are going to (as subtly as possible) make sure that the people they've primed aren't lynched, not to mention the fact that they're going to try and not get lynched themselves.

So, all they have to do is prime 2 people and get 1/3 of the players mislynched (hardly impossible) to win the game.

However, if there are 2 no lynches, arsonists only have a 2/7 chance of killing ferngully on N3.

We have a chance of lynching a primed tree, wasting an arsonist night action.

We have a chance of Ferngully coming out and confirming town if she correctly douses people, letting us narrow down who are the arsonists.

Mislynching is a powerful scum tool this game, and lynching is comparatively a weak scumhunting tool in this game relative to normal mafia games.

But, we've both made our cases. Days 1 and 2 I won't be voting anyone, for the reasons I've stated.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Max posted:

On reflection, I realize these were more shrub puns than tree puns. I apologize, and hope you can all forgive me.

Are you one of the arsonists? Because then I'd be totally okay with lynching you.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Max posted:

Why wood I ever say yes to this?

But I'm glad to see you coming around to the idea of lunching someone day 1.

Well, mislynching helps the arsonists. A lot. It gives them the game in this setup.

Ferngully is our cop and our doctor with no self-protect. We simply can't afford to out/mislynch her, especially not early.

That's pretty obvious, I think, to everyone here, including you.

So yeah, I guess I am coming around!

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Max posted:

I'm just trying to imagine what 2 full game days would look like if we all agreed not to lunch anyone. I think things will stagnate and things will be impressively uninteresting.

Well, if I'm not a crazy person and it WAS the best decision we could say, "Hey AR we have decided not to lunch anyone today so move the timeline forward and ask for night actions."

Basically if there was a consensus we could accelerate the game. Besides, if we no-lynched D1 and D2 the absolute earliest possible scum action would show up D3 anyways, and that's probably not even their best move.

Hypothetically.

Lots of people haven't chimed in since PM's have gone out so I could be off base here, but the potential of losing the doc/cop D1 or D2 is pretty gamebreaking, and odds of seeing a crispy ferngully D3 are 1/7 with two no-lynches.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


and that's ONLY if they ignite, which they probably shouldn't do.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Ah well, d1 and d2 lynch with a n2 burn means 1/3 chance of ferngully dying without ever providing any useful information.

Guess we can do our best. Who cares about winning anyways?

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


dongsbot 9000 posted:

your literal strategy is to have every single person vote no lynch for two days so we start the game on day 3 with two towns pre-ignited and nothing to go on except maybe that the firefighter randomly targetted one of those individuals for dousing

Dongsbot is right, firefighter is useless in an arsonist only scum game. Why not reveal? You're basically just a tree anyways.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


dongsbot 9000 posted:

you literally approach the game like a broken robot "uhhh roleblockers are better than doctors cuz if you just randomly block people youre more likely to hit mafia as roleblocker than town as doctor" "uhhh if we randomly lynch people then we might accidentally lynch ferngully and then town will lose" "uhhh if youre vanilla tree i guess youre basically useless just wait for ferngully to tell us whos scum"

I was scum and my RB scumbuddy was on the block.

Wtf is ur problem?

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Random lynching is absolutely the worst thing we can do.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Murmur Twin posted:

I feel like we have to lynch D1 and D2, there's no other way to gain information.

If we no-lynch D1 and D2, isn't that essentially the same as starting the game with 2 people primed for arson?

If Ferngully douses incorrectly N1 and N2, yes.

But D3 it puts us in an interesting situation. The arsonists won't want to lynch the people they've primed, even if Ferngully saved them.

Town also has 4 potentially useful lynches, because lynching either arsonist or either primed townie is "good" in that it slows scum.

The 'strategy' makes use of our power role. If we get lucky and she correctly douses a couple townies, the arsonists are boned.

If, however, we play the game with a 'lynch erryday' mentality, we cripple ferngully as we're likely to lynch her, out her, or get her randomly primed.

You guys do make good points though. It's just a question of whether we want to make use of our power role or not.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


It seems like the consensus is that we will not rely on the power role.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


I see it more as people describing a chess game as if it's being played with checkers pieces, but I can see that the consensus is against the idea so I'll let it alone.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Li Dawny posted:

Can you please read the things you post and make an effort to sound less condescending Adahn?

Condescending? Not one person has considered the possibility that the firefighter will be useful in this game, and everyone who's argued against my thoughts has operated under the assumption that she will never douse effectively.

That's not condescension, that's observation.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Max, dongs, and MMT all think that the odds of Ferngully dousing someone who is going to be primed are slim to none. That doesn't make her 'our most important tool', that makes her a 7th tree.

I'm not scum, but their best strategy for winning, as I said, is 3 mislynches and 2 primes that don't overlap for D4 50% vote control. They can't, and won't, prime randomly.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Eh, this isn't really mafia though. Scum don't know if they've primed successfully or not, at least as long as we have ferngully.

My hope was to keep the odds of her dying due to chance low (1/7) for a couple days. Now they are 1/3 or 1/2 since the arsonists won't prime themselves and make up the biggest voting bloc.

So let's try not to lynch ferngully!

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


No mislynches, we only lynch arsonists around here.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


no

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


of course i'm a tree. everyone is a tree. anyone who doesn't claim tree is an idjit

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


i dunno who is what or why jus waitin for quidfinitum the hyper-rational australian to show up

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


anywho the proper counter-argument is the 22% chance of a scum lynch D1 and 25% chance D2, even if you close your eyes and point.

i like those odds

##vote AA

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Max posted:

Wait, was that just a magnificent gambit?

No I'm actually a giant dumbass, but in retrospect scum might see the argument and be like, "Hey, this doesn't seem terrible to me."

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Murmur Twin posted:

You're trying to play a poker game with chess pieces.

They both have kings and queens!

Close enough.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Murmur Twin posted:

You're not describing their best strategy for winning, you're describing their quickest path to victory.

If we start the game with two no-lynches, it means we go into D3 with 9 players of unknown alignment and 0-2 of them primed. How is that an improvement over a D1 with 9 players of unknown alignment with 0 of them primed?

I'm not going to advocate no-lynching anymore, but I'll talk about D3, N3, and D4 a little.

D3 we lynch. The arsonists will not want to lynch the people they've primed. N3 they ignite, and D4 we get loads of info.

If Fern saved anyone, we have at least two, potentially 3 confirmed town (if fern decides to come out). If anyone burns who was a lynch target, we see who was resistant to putting them up.

However, we should probably lynch day 1 and 2. We've got okay odds of getting an arsonist, even if we end up losing ferngully in the process. I'd put the odds of losing her at 50% by D3.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


dongsbot 9000 posted:

is adahn scum???

lol gonna stump me?

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Murmur Twin posted:

Regardless of your intent, it comes off as condescending since you're clearly implying that you're considering the game in a more intelligent way than the rest of us.

But I disgress!

##vote Max

This is almost entirely gut but I feel like he's going out of his way to sound like a town player.

Sorry about that. I have a personality flaw where I state my ideas with far more confidence than I feel. It's worse in person, if you can imagine.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Anomalous Amalgam posted:

Adahn, I want you to explain how what you were doing was A. a gambit, and B. How scum would think for a minute that it was a good idea or/at all favorable to them. There seems to be a disconnect in your logic.

I've said it before, you're an intuitive player, but I'm just not following right now.

It's a numbers game. I was focusing on how to maximize the utility of our power role while ignoring the probability of lynching arsonists D1 and D2.

I wasn't joking when I said I was being a dumbass, it wasn't a gambit. Like I said, even blind lynching D1 and D2 gives 22 and 25% odds of lynching an arsonist, respectively, which are pretty good.

If an arsonist sees a townie advocating for a no-lynch for a couple days, they might think it was a good idea too. We have a much higher chance of losing our power role, but we gain a decent chance of getting 1 of the scum.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Anomalous Amalgam posted:

But why would they think it's a good idea that's where I'm not following.

Granted, odds of a mislynch D1 and D2 are 7/9 and then 3/4 or 6/7 depending on what happens D1, but that's if it's completely random.

Most people playing assume that Ferngully isn't going to douse correctly, so scum probably believes that as well. That means no-lynching really would be a total scum benefit.

I don't think so, but I'm a weirdo.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Max posted:

No lunching day 1 and 2 gives scum two free primed targets, or even a free kill, before they ever have to worry about getting lunched.

It's sort of suspicious that you can't see that, but I don't know how new a player you are.


Max posted:

Disagree with Adahn that scum would advocate for a no-lunch. It's in their best interest to thin the herd as fast as possible.

Now this is a bit of a head-scratcher.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Quidnose posted:

Yeah, I think AA is scum. Everyone else took a hard line against Adahn from a mafia-theory standpoint and I don't see how AA as an experienced player doesn't make that argument.

Like I'm reading it in retrospect and I'm thinking "Adahn's idea isn't THE WORST THING EVER but it's ignoring the fact that we'd get info from flips, that the firefighter protecting people who don't burn doesn't necessarily confirm anyone when burns happen, etc. etc. etc."

AA doesn't mention any of this, just sits on the fence, admits to sitting on the fence, calls Adahn both town and scum, says he sees merit in the argument, then jumps on this minute point of "wait why would scum come in to agree with you" as if he forgot he soft agreed with him?

The whole thing looks real bad. Combined with a lot of white noise I think he's probably the first scum.

Soft Dongsbot as 2nd scum because of his mean-play scumtell.

I wouldn't lump dongs in with scum because of that. He's a sensitive piggy and has it in for me. Everywhere.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Li Dawny posted:

All I said was that it was not a good plan. I don't think he's being scummy with it, but his attitude is unnessesary given that this is a game among friends.

I don't have an attitude so much as a way of presenting my ideas that other people find extremely distasteful.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Li Dawny posted:

That would be an attitude. You can't change language because you disagree with being labeled with it.

Eh, everyone is entitled to their own opinions. I thought people were missing something that was important. I was missing an important point at the same time.

Different people perceive the world in different ways. You labeled me as 'condescending' and proceeded to insult/disparage me because of that.

I could label you as well, but as you say, this is a game among friends, and I choose not to.

I had a pretty big blind spot when I was making my argument, but that happens a lot. That's why I don't get attached to them.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Moatillata posted:

MMT- it looks like you've voted for almost everyone at this point. Town

Adahn is town. quidnose makes a compelling case on AA and dongs sure is posting an awful lot. Also, for someone (infin) who's personal crusade is to murder all lurkers there is a good deal of lurking occuring.

In summary: I would vote for AA, dongs, Infinitum or lil d right now.

Infin is very australian so I try not to confuse lurking with sleeping when it comes to him.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Anomalous Amalgam posted:

lol very australian as if it's a condition or state of being and not his ethnicity

More of a timezone thing than an ethnicity thing lol

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Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

Why won't he die?


Infinitum posted:

I'm gonna feel better once we lynch you

alloerotic asphyxiation?

Huh, learn something new every day.

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