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Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


I like the flavor of this game too much not to play in it, put me in

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Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Adahn1986 posted:

Wtf is ur problem?

dongsbot 9000 posted:

what is your problem

mafia.txt

Seriously though don't talk about other games, and if it means anything at all I would personally enjoy the game more if we could keep things chill-ish?

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Max posted:

Also, MT, where do you fall on the "do we lynch or no-lynch day 1 and 2?" quesiton.

I feel like we have to lynch D1 and D2, there's no other way to gain information.

If we no-lynch D1 and D2, isn't that essentially the same as starting the game with 2 people primed for arson?

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Hah, I hadn't really read the game before answering that but apparently my answer seems to be the consensus. If anything I say we turbo someone to accelerate the process by which people are forced to make in-game decisions.

##vote Moatillata - I eenie-meenie-miney-mo'ed the playerlist.

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Adahn1986 posted:

anywho the proper counter-argument is the 22% chance of a scum lynch D1 and 25% chance D2, even if you close your eyes and point.

i like those odds

##vote AA

Do your odds change if people don't vote randomly? ##vote Adahn

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Adahn1986 posted:

I see it more as people describing a chess game as if it's being played with checkers pieces, but I can see that the consensus is against the idea so I'll let it alone.

You're trying to play a poker game with chess pieces.

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Adahn1986 posted:

Max, dongs, and MMT all think that the odds of Ferngully dousing someone who is going to be primed are slim to none. That doesn't make her 'our most important tool', that makes her a 7th tree.

I'm not scum, but their best strategy for winning, as I said, is 3 mislynches and 2 primes that don't overlap for D4 50% vote control. They can't, and won't, prime randomly.

You're not describing their best strategy for winning, you're describing their quickest path to victory.

If we start the game with two no-lynches, it means we go into D3 with 9 players of unknown alignment and 0-2 of them primed. How is that an improvement over a D1 with 9 players of unknown alignment with 0 of them primed?

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Adahn1986 posted:

Condescending? Not one person has considered the possibility that the firefighter will be useful in this game, and everyone who's argued against my thoughts has operated under the assumption that she will never douse effectively.

That's not condescension, that's observation.

Regardless of your intent, it comes off as condescending since you're clearly implying that you're considering the game in a more intelligent way than the rest of us.

But I disgress!

##vote Max

This is almost entirely gut but I feel like he's going out of his way to sound like a town player.

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Adahn1986 posted:

If Fern saved anyone, we have at least two, potentially 3 confirmed town (if fern decides to come out). If anyone burns who was a lynch target, we see who was resistant to putting them up.

I hadn't considered this point fwiw I do still think we should lynch though.

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Adahn1986 posted:

Sorry about that. I have a personality flaw where I state my ideas with far more confidence than I feel. It's worse in person, if you can imagine.

No worries! If I ever point out something like that it's with the intent of being helpful, not judgmental

Max posted:

Care to point out where I was doing that?

Like I said, it's mostly gut. I went back and reread you and didn't really see what I described (outside of that "hooray!" post). I guess the thing that's pinging me is that it feels like you're contributing a lot to the setup spec math discussion now because it's something you can be honest about even if scum.

[]

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Right now I'd object pretty strongly to ending D1 before certain players (Infi / Moat spring to mind) have said anything game-relevant.

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Quidnose posted:

Also please re-read all of those AA quotes. They literally respond to no one. You can read that as AA fully having a conversation with himself and that's hella weird.

This case seems suspicious because even though AA wasn't replying to anyone he was clearly engaged in an ongoing conversation about odds/no-lynching. I can't imagine being suspicious of someone simply for not using quotes in their replies.

Quid - are you saying that those AA quotes not being directed at anyone is scummy?

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Li Dawny posted:

Why are we voting Moat exactly?

I, too, am unclear on this.

Li, who is your strongest scumread? I feel like you've been posting but haven't really made a strict alignment call yet.

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


##vote Quidnose

I'm reading over his case on AA and it very much looks to me like a scum Quid trying to say whatever he can to get AA mislynched. I feel like a town Quid would at least be wavering on his opinion on AA as their discussion progresses but the fact that he's instead doubling down feels like a fabrication.

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


dongsbot 9000 posted:

how does mmt not know how quidnose plays he literally does this in every game

Well yeah, I get Quid's meta (and enjoy playing in games with him) - I think it goes without saying that any good Mafia player will try and imitate their town game when playing scum.

The difference is that when he's town I think he casts a wider net and then settles in on the person he thinks is scummiest, whereas when he's town he finds someone and tunnels on them. This is all 100% my own opinion / a D1 case that might be wrong, but when I read over the case on AA is just feels like the latter to me.

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Quidnose posted:

MMT you know this is like the third game in a row you've had an incorrect scum read on me on D1

Yeah, I usually reserve my misreads for AR but he's modding this one

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Quidnose posted:

So yes, I do think you think Adahn is acting scummy, and I don't see why you are acting like you're not.

How is that you believe that

(a) AA thinks Adahn is acting scummy, and
(b) AA is scum

at the same time? Don't those contradict?

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Murmur Twin posted:

The difference is that when he's town I think he casts a wider net and then settles in on the person he thinks is scummiest, whereas when he's scum he finds someone and tunnels on them. This is all 100% my own opinion / a D1 case that might be wrong, but when I read over the case on AA is just feels like the latter to me.

Mafia edit

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Quidnose posted:

...because people, as scum, will fake opinions on town members in order to get them mis-dunked?

How is this even a question MMT

On a phone for the next few hours.

Your exact words were "yes I think you think Adahn is scummy". Not "you're acting like you think..". I think it's an important distinction because if it were a real case you'dve used the latter phrasing.

Yeah its nitpicking but it jumped out at me

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


I'm back and catching up on the game, apologies for not being around yesterday.

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Quidnose posted:

So yes, I do think you [AA] think Adahn is acting scummy, and I don't see why you are acting like you're not.

To clarify the reason I'm honing in on this line - if you think someone is scum, by definition you don't think they have alignment reads on other players. If Quid "does think that AA thinks Adahn is acting scummy", it implies that Quid thinks AA is town. That doesn't make sense given that it was in the middle of a large case on him.

I'm not policing this for grammar or whatever, I'm saying that the phrasing Quid used there betrays the fact that he's fabricating a read on AA.

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Moatillata posted:

Mmt.. are you and lil D the scum team? I just re-read the thread. You're seeming suspicious. Also, is that gasoline you're holding?

Nope, and nope.

Can you give an example specifically of what you find suspicious?

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Adahn1986 posted:

When she's town (horrifically limited exposure caveat) she focuses well and isolates strong cases.

We could be seeing her scum game. I think a lot of us are picking up bad vibes (gut feels) and that may or may not be a coincidence.

##vote MMT

Just so it's clear - yesterday was my first day on a new job and it was my turn to cook dinner for the house. Sometimes real life is a thing!

Right now my quick opinions are that Quid, Max, Moat* are scummiest and that I find the push on AA to be far more suspicious than AA himself.

* (I'd really like to see an actual case on me to get a better sense of Moat's alignment)

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Adahn1986 posted:

No worries! I just think we'd get more info from an AA flip given Quid's erratic behavior.

I don't really see an Adahn turbo as being all that useful, except that those leading the charge will probably look pretty scummy.

Talk me through the evolution of your opinion at me. At one point you voted me as said I was suspicious and then you kind of immediately drop that topic and move on to AA. Why?

(spoiler: after re-reading Adahn he's shooting up my suspects list)

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Adahn1986 posted:

You can probably count on AA's vote since he doesn't want to get lynched.

Dongs will be a hard sell because it means I'll be tree-stumped and he'll have to deal with me for the rest of the game.

Infin loves a good turbo and will probably be on board.

Max spent enough time talking about mechanics with me to realize that if I was scum there's no way I'd bring up the possibility of no-lynching. That's just insane.

Quid's flip-flopping on the issue and certainty of my being scum, plus leading the charge for a turbo despite striking me as a rational individual is puzzling.

However, I think he takes my reticence to label him as scum to be knowledge that he isn't, which is why he's so certain I'm scum.

What he probably doesn't know is that I'm a scientist IRL, so I will, as a person, never ever claim certainty about anything. Because that's stupid.

I kind of feel like you're putting way more thought into who might lynch you and why over who the scum might be. Is your strongest case out there right now that you think AA is scum because he defended himself when pressed?

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Adahn1986 posted:

I don't really see an Adahn turbo as being all that useful, except that those leading the charge will probably look pretty scummy.

##vote Adahn

I can't imagine town saying this. The only point that Adahn is trying to make here is "don't lynch me".

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Moatillata posted:

I don't really care that it's me you vote for but what townie advocates for turbo???

Then votes for Adahn for no reason.

Then votes max for no reason. (Also Max what's your preferred pronoun?)

Calls out infin for not posting (DOES NOT GET TUNNELED?!??)

On a scale of 1-10, where 1 is "joking around" and 10 is "making an effort to push these votes", where would you put these votes?

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Moatillata posted:

You tell meeeeeeee.

Totally indirect way to approach this argument and kinda weird.

All of those votes (the ones before Quidnose, which was a legit case) were jokes.

Does that change your read on me at all?

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Moatillata posted:

You tell meeeeeeee.

Totally indirect way to approach this argument and kinda weird.

To be direct, I'm specifically accusing you of creating a fake case on me given that most of the things you base it on were joke votes.

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


I have to head out for an hour or so and will try to check in again before deadline. Right now my two strongest reads are on Adahn (who I don't think comes off as posting from a town perspective) and Moat (who I wholeheartedly believe is faking an opinion on me).

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Moatillata posted:

Also notice how she says nothing about advocating for a turbo doesn't defend it at all. Because it was a slip up. At this point I feel more solid on her than anyone else based on what I've seen.

What about me saying "let's turbo" as one of my first posts and then not following it up is something you think scum would do?

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


I'd personally rather vote Moat than Adahn, is there time for people to read him over and give thoughts?

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Adahn1986 posted:

lol I got a town read from Moat, he's around and also hasn't hammered/voted. Neither has dongs or AA. Strongest read is on Dawny for bandwagoning with you, pushing the turbo, and lying.

Why a town read on Moat?

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


dongsbot 9000 posted:

its literally the second half of his sentence, mmt

Well yeah but I've been saying "man moats case on me looks fake as hell" and yet for some reason no one seems to be factoring that in at all so I figured I'd see if Adahns opinion of Moat has changed since then.

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.



His strongest case is on me for "jumping around" which hugely ignores the fact that he got that read from jokephase. I think his case is more for show than a real opinion.

Gonna be phonebound til deadline.

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


##vote moat

Just so i don't appear to be blowing smoke.

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Adahn1986 posted:

MMT's strongest scum reads this game so far are me

Correct! ##vote Adahn

Apologies to everyone for being wrong on Moat but I maintain that his vote for me looked phony.

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Adahn1986 posted:

MMT's strongest scum reads this game so far are me (I'm 100% tree) and Moat (proven tree).

I feel like she's quite an astute player, but has been working to throw people off their game more than anything.

In essence, that's the impression that I got before and it's been consistent.

Give me an example or two of what you mean?

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Adahn goes from this:

Adahn1986 posted:

Hmm, sometimes people do the groupings, so I can do it too.

Leans scum: MMT, AA

---

Ok, I know we all hate mechanics arguments but I'm kind of leaning MMT now.

The arsonists want to prime people unlikely to be lynched, and they want Ferngully to douse the wrong person.

MMT came out, cased and voted almost everyone, potentially making it rough for Ferngully to choose.

When she's town (horrifically limited exposure caveat) she focuses well and isolates strong cases.

We could be seeing her scum game. I think a lot of us are picking up bad vibes (gut feels) and that may or may not be a coincidence.

##vote MMT

To this:

Adahn1986 posted:

I don't have reads on MMT, infini, or Max.

Back to this:

Adahn1986 posted:

MMT's strongest scum reads this game so far are me (I'm 100% tree) and Moat (proven tree).

I feel like she's quite an astute player, but has been working to throw people off their game more than anything.

In essence, that's the impression that I got before and it's been consistent.

I think I will trust my gut, and my head, and our stump buddy and go with ##vote MMT for now.

Adahn: what changed in between the first and third quotes that caused you not to have a read on me?

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Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Moatillata posted:

As a tree thugger I imagine it was esp hard on you. To murder a tree.

As a child of the forest I solemnly swear that I would never murder a tree.

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