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whomupclicklike posted:Am I wrong in suggesting that Macron is just frog Clinton No, you're not. Macron's other main appeal is on the right; he's an rear end in a top hat neoliberal without the ultracatholic baggage of Fillon.
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Apr 21, 2017 13:46
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Agnosticnixie posted:No, you're not. Also the corruption baggage.
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Apr 21, 2017 14:46
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Presentation aside, Macron's policies are further to the right of Clinton's
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Apr 21, 2017 15:01
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Macron also isn't Clinton in the sense that by detaching himself from the PS he's been able to create some disconnect between himself and his own legacy, since people will happily blame that on Hollande and treat Macron as an outsider. I think treating Macron as France's Clinton is generally ill-advised.
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Apr 21, 2017 16:23
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7Q9w07IOHg
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Apr 22, 2017 17:08
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Qu'est-il arrivé à la gauche tolérante?
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Apr 22, 2017 17:21
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Fallen Hamprince posted:Qu'est-il arrivé à la gauche tolérante? lol if you think there are any leftists at the Agriculture Convention.
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Apr 22, 2017 17:28
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Is la pen gonna win
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Apr 22, 2017 19:10
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I'd imagine Macron is most like Clinton in that has campaign relies entirely on the average voter being totally happy with the status quo and their only problem is the tax rate they pay on their investments, and an aesthetic dislike for out and proud bigotry and these two things alone will get them to make the effort to come out and vote. Like I know the polls don't exactly show this but my gut tells me there's no way for the first round to go other than LePen at ~26%, and then Macron and Melenchon being within a percentage of each other, with Macron heavily underperforming due to apathy.
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Apr 22, 2017 19:14
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7Q9w07IOHg vs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lV_PQlXCgGA
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Apr 22, 2017 20:10
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Would those happy with the status quo rather pick LePen or Melenchon, should push come to shove? I'm afraid I know the answer, fascsm is the ideology of the middle class after all.
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Apr 22, 2017 21:13
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steinrokkan posted:Would those happy with the status quo rather pick LePen or Melenchon, should push come to shove? I'm afraid I know the answer, fascsm is the ideology of the middle class after all. i think people hate lepen and have contempt for macron i can't say who will win though
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Apr 22, 2017 23:45
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steinrokkan posted:Would those happy with the status quo rather pick LePen or Melenchon, should push come to shove? I'm afraid I know the answer, fascsm is the ideology of the middle class after all. Those happy with the status quo are probably less likely to vote LePen because fascists moderating in power hasn't exactly happened before; socialists moderating is almost entirely expected.
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Apr 23, 2017 00:30
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steinrokkan posted:Would those happy with the status quo rather pick LePen or Melenchon, should push come to shove? I'm afraid I know the answer, fascsm is the ideology of the middle class after all.
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Apr 23, 2017 01:21
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Top City Homo posted:i think people hate lepen and have contempt for macron Five thirty eight looked at French polls and found they were significantly closer to one another than you would expect by chance, meaning the pollsters are herding together like cattle and hence likely to be downplaying the chance of upset victories. This means nobody else can really say who'se going to win, it's all too close to call.
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Apr 23, 2017 02:35
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rudatron posted:Rich people will cut their losses and support Le Pen, because fascism is profitable and ethnic cleansing didn't doesn't hurt the bottom line. LePen has been consistent about protecting the benefits, pensions, etc of French citizens. Without all the racism, anti-semitism, and Islamophobia her message would be fairly boilerplate socialist left. Added together its a kind of National Socialism, if you will.
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Apr 23, 2017 02:35
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Squalid posted:Five thirty eight looked at French polls and found they were significantly closer to one another than you would expect by chance, meaning the pollsters are herding together like cattle and hence likely to be downplaying the chance of upset victories. This means nobody else can really say who'se going to win, it's all too close to call. macron has no party base
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Apr 23, 2017 02:48
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i mean these jackasses are playing with fire Paris is going to burn if Lepen wins
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Apr 23, 2017 02:49
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Top City Homo posted:Paris is going to burn if Lepen wins Fukken hope so.
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Apr 23, 2017 02:54
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Agag posted:LePen has been consistent about protecting the benefits, pensions, etc of French citizens. Without all the racism, anti-semitism, and Islamophobia her message would be fairly boilerplate socialist left.
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Apr 23, 2017 03:29
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rudatron posted:But their hearts not actually in any of that. The Nazis were pretty happy to backtrack the similar things they promised, in their time, to secure the loyalty of business interests. Le Pen will probably make a similar deal with the corporations/business leaders, to dump all that poo poo but keep the border and migrant stuff. Agreed. But in the election even the lie of protecting your benefits will play better than austerity or means testing. Plus you know LePen will have all kinds of great excuses later. "I didn't want to cut old age pensions, but, you know, the Jews and gypsies..."
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Apr 23, 2017 03:30
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A Le Pen victory will result in an attack on labor & unions for the sake of business profitability, and the most extreme racists are going to be used as stike breakers/corporate lap dogs. The goal will be to increase productivity to compensate for the loss of cheap migrant labor & thereby maintain profitability. That Le Pen is going to win anyway because 'woke' idiots imported migrant labor to depress wages, made no plans to integrate them into wider french society, and then mocked and insulted the people hurt by these policies, is the tragedy of our times. None of this had to happen. Even accepting more migrants didn't have to result in a nativist backlash, if handled correctly, if migrant workers weren't just used as a tool to weaken native unskilled labor. But they were, so it did.
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Apr 23, 2017 03:38
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rudatron posted:A Le Pen victory will result in an attack on labor & unions for the sake of business profitability, and the most extreme racists are going to be used as stike breakers/corporate lap dogs. The goal will be to increase productivity to compensate for the loss of cheap migrant labor & thereby maintain profitability. None of the authoritarian ethnic nationalist governments are going to be able to deliver on their economic promises, and in each case will take the kinds of actions you're describing to try and shore up the national economy from the top down. But it won't work. So the real tragedy is going to be when these populations willing to elect overt racists for a little economic and physical security end up with neither. What will they do then? I don't think someone like Trump thought that far ahead, but LePen was raised on this and knows exactly what the next move is.
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Apr 23, 2017 03:49
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Le Pen is not winning unless Fillon makes the runoffs and the entirety of France abstains in horror; it doesn't require special pleading, polls were accurate in the US and people traditionally vote against Le Pen. More importantly people have had decades now of hearing her poo poo and France has an actual left. Neither applies to the US. Every scenario that assumes everyone loses their mind during the runoffs is based on little more than nonsense (or in some cases libs still delusional enough to assume that american voting patterns will somehow magically transform into french voting patterns).
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Apr 23, 2017 03:51
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Agnosticnixie posted:Le Pen is not winning unless Fillon makes the runoffs and the entirety of France abstains in horror; it doesn't require special pleading, polls were accurate in the US and people traditionally vote against Le Pen. More importantly people have had decades now of hearing her poo poo and France has an actual left. Neither applies to the US. every single mistake made against trump and brexit are being made again with le pen.
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Apr 23, 2017 03:51
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anime was right posted:every single mistake made against trump and brexit are being made again with le pen. And when she wins, these same retards will be blaming Russia again.
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Apr 23, 2017 03:52
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anime was right posted:every single mistake made against trump and brexit are being made again with le pen. The french system does not work this way, there are multiple choices and the legislative elections matter. More importantly France has already had that situation three times in 20 years and Le Pen hasn't been normalized the way the polite anglo media desperately wants to normalize their own far right. Brokebrained libs trying to pretend France is inevitably going to vote like America because of the presence of white people are morons who should probably stop looking at the census as their campaign formula.
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Apr 23, 2017 03:52
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This is LePen's best chance. We can say its a real threat, which wasn't true in the past.
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Apr 23, 2017 03:53
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rudatron posted:A Le Pen victory will result in an attack on labor & unions for the sake of business profitability, and the most extreme racists are going to be used as stike breakers/corporate lap dogs. The goal will be to increase productivity to compensate for the loss of cheap migrant labor & thereby maintain profitability. I think attributing European immigration policies to "woke idiots" is a profound misread.
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Apr 23, 2017 03:56
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She was polling 23% before the first round in 2012 too.
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Apr 23, 2017 03:57
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my concern is that macron is all smoke with no party base the more i read about him the more i think that he will tremendously gently caress it all up i really hope he doesn't even make the 1st round cut and its hamon vs melechon
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Apr 23, 2017 04:05
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Agag posted:What will they do then? I don't think someone like Trump thought that far ahead, but LePen was raised on this and knows exactly what the next move is. Bip Roberts posted:I think attributing European immigration policies to "woke idiots" is a profound misread. It's also had the side effect of weakening the left in general. The end result is that now racism + prejudice are more entrenched than ever, and were looking at a developed world turn towards fascism.
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Apr 23, 2017 04:04
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rudatron posted:Are you agreeing with me or suggesting that Le Pen is going to do something different? Because I'm suspecting a full fascist/corporatist takeover. I think we're at least half-agreeing? She will try to go the corporatist route but their economy will still tank, at which point I think she'll go full, old-school Nazi. That may even be her plan.
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Apr 23, 2017 04:09
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Macron would be permanent coexistence (more realistically he'd basically end up having to carve together a coalition of republicans and capitalist roaders in the PS) which honestly is probably the best scenario with his horrible policies. I'm more worried that Melenchon might be saddled with a PS neolib as Prime Minister if he does win.
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Apr 23, 2017 04:10
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Alienwarehouse posted:And when she wins, these same retards will be blaming Russia again. lol
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Apr 23, 2017 04:35
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Fallen Hamprince posted:Qu'est-il arrivé à la gauche tolérante? 
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Apr 23, 2017 04:58
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melenchon isn't the greatest but this warms my red heart
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Apr 23, 2017 05:03
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Alienwarehouse posted:And when she wins, these same retards will be blaming Russia again. the FN gets funded out of sketchy bank accounts in cyprus and RT and sputnik are all in on lepen. not that the french need much help to elect a fascist
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Apr 23, 2017 05:45
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Agnosticnixie posted:The french system does not work this way, there are multiple choices and the legislative elections matter. More importantly France has already had that situation three times in 20 years and Le Pen hasn't been normalized the way the polite anglo media desperately wants to normalize their own far right. 
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Apr 23, 2017 05:46
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continuously stating that the anti-brick candidate isn't hitler doesn't win as things are continuously get worse and people mull over what to do with the brick in their hand
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Apr 23, 2017 05:47
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