TheGreatGnocchi posted:

I understand the significance of Clark County in NV, but isn't it a fact that Republicans tend to wait until election day to vote? So isn't having a lead in early voters kind of expected for Hillary? I'm just trying to understand the correlation of how her lead means she is going to win the state.

ZeeToo posted:

This election has been so fun to watch. I remember back in 2012, when Romney was so confident and making his last-minute stumps in places like Pennsylvania and some (including me, though not vocally) were Arzying about it. Does he know something we don't?

Trump throws a rally in Minnesota and I just laugh. Here I'm pretty confident that, no, Trump does not have some insider data or masterplan I just don't get.

FlamingLiberal posted:

That blogger explained it, but basically Trump would have to bring out more than 90% of GOP voters to vote for him as well as capture something like 30% of undecideds among remaining voters. It's basically an impossible hill to climb.

cant cook creole bream posted:

He has Rudy.

Deified Data posted:

Voted this morning in Indiana - took about an hour and the crowd looked pretty Trumpy. +1 for HRC and Evan Bayh, not that it matters.

Antti posted:

Ralston is the #1 expert on NV early voting and he's declared Trump DOA in Nevada. Without Nevada his paths are very narrow, and might include moonshot-poo poo like Minnesota. It was posted on the last page:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794905326642302976

Bloops Crusts posted:

Evan Bayh's still got a shot! I'm signed up to canvass for him Monday and Tuesday. Don't lose hope -- bring any Dem friends you have down to the polls!

computer parts posted:

Cali will, NV probably will, AZ maybe, probably not, I doubt anything farther east will.

Party Plane Jones posted:

quote:

Nation Plunges Into Chaos

WASHINGTON, DC–Presidential-election-related violence continued to spread across the nation Tuesday, with Day Seven of the battle for the White House claiming another 1,200 lives.

In Bush-controlled Tennessee, news of Gore's call for a sixth recount in the disputed territory of Florida sparked full-scale rioting, with Republican militiamen setting fire to Gore's heavily fortified Nashville compound. It is believed Gore running mate Joseph Lieberman was trapped in the blaze, though his whereabouts and status were unknown as of press time.

In Austin, Democrats continued to clash with armed Bush troops outside the Texas capitol. Inside, the Bush family waited for news on the welfare and whereabouts of Dick Cheney, who was carried off by a band of NARAL Reproductive-Freedom Fighters.

Washington sources reported via short-wave radio that the city is littered with burning and abandoned National Guard tanks. The last D.C. television transmissions, which were broadcast at 11:22 p.m. EST Monday, showed the drowned bodies of more than 200 Young Republicans in the National Mall's cyanide-laced reflecting pool. It is unknown whether the deaths are a mass suicide or the work of a Democratic guerrilla group operating out of the Gore-controlled territory of Maryland.
[...]

Majorian posted:

I'm not even sure we'll be seeing much of Rudy for the next couple days. He really hosed up in admitting that, uh, the FBI leaked investigation details to him and the campaign.

Gorau posted:

Not capture 30% of undecided. Win the undecided vote by 30%. Ie he needs to win the vote 65-35.

lovely Green Party Prez Candidate posted:

#AMJoy is the height of corrupt cronyism in media. Partisan @JoyAnnReid has lied repeatedly about our campaign & refused to run corrections.

uXs posted:

Are those early voting ballots being counted (and results published) already, or are they just exit polls?

Pastrymancy posted:

But that seems like a non issue to the base. Granted, they really need college educated whites to come home

quote:

----The Democrats won Clark County by more than 11,000 votes Friday (final mail count not posted yet), a record margin on a record-setting turnout day of 57,000 voters. The Dems now have a firewall -- approaching 73,000 ballots -- greater than 2012 when Barack Obama won the state by nearly 7 points. The 71,000 of 2012 was slightly higher in percentage terms, but raw votes matter. The lead is 14 percentage points -- right at registration. You know what else matters? Registration advantages (142,000 in Clark). Reminder: When the Clark votes were counted from early/mail voting in 2012, Obama had a 69,000 vote lead in Clark County. Game over.

----The statewide lead (some rurals not posted) will be above 45,000 -- slightly under the 48,000 of 2012, but still robust. That's 6 percentage points, or right about at registration. The GOP turnout advantage was under a percent, worse than 2012 when it was 1.1 percent.

----The Dems eked out a 200-vote win in Washoe and lead there by 1,000 votes. It was even in 2012. The rural lead, before the stragglers come in, is 27,500. It probably will get above 28,000.

----Total turnout without those rurals: 768,000, or 52.5 percent. If overall turnout ends up being 80 percent, that means two thirds of the vote is in -- close to 2012. Republicans would have to not only win Election Day by close to double digits to turn around the lead Hillary Clinton almost surely has in early voting, but they would have to astronomically boost turnout. The goal for the Dems during early voting was to bank votes and to boost turnout as high as possible to minimize the number of votes left on Election Day to affect races. Folks, the Reid Machine went out with a bang.

As an exclamation point to a historic night in Nevada, in which Clinton essentially locked up the state and Hispanics, insulted all cycle by Trump, streamed into the market, here is what the final Cardenas numbers showed (tallied by an on-the-ground activist):

1,904 voted
1,258: Ds, 66%
165: Rs, 9%
481: NPs, 25%

So Cardenas was responsible for adding 1,000 to the Democratic lead.

Trump has almost no path to the presidency without Nevada. He can say whatever he wants in Reno on Saturday and boost rural turnout a lot, but he made his own bed when he announced his candidacy.

I'll dive deeper into the numbers later to show just how deep the wave could be Tuesday.

berserker posted:

Actually the polls over the last ~2 months were showing that all of the measures in all 5 states would pass with anywhere from very very small to landslide margins. The closest race is in AZ where in mid October the polling was showing ~50% support, 40% against, and 10% undecided. A poll discussed on the radio just yesterday put the numbers at 48/47/5. Still a win for YES, but extremely close.

That shows also that apparently ~70% of undecideds broke in the last week for NO while 4% of the YES supporters actually switched back to undecided. Not a great trendline, but the numbers also show that up to election day the YES campaign only needs to grab at most 40% of the remaining undecideds to absolutely secure victory, assuming that everyone left actually votes, and I wouldn't think that would be particularly hard considering 40% of the remaining undecided voters on this subject were already recently supporting the measure.

rscott posted:

Amazed the HRC campaign hasn't hired out a bunch of taco trucks decked out in Hillary Clinton ads and parked them a legal distance away from the polling stations to hand out free tacos to people who voted

Dork457 posted:

NV looking like a lock but is FLA still up in the air?

Chelb posted:

I'm also interested in this. Is there a twitter account or anything regarding florida's early voting and polling and stuff?

Social Studies 3rd Period posted:

Didn't AZ's get yanked from the ballot by a judge declaring some signatures getting it on there invalid or something?

Chelb posted:

I'm also interested in this. Is there a twitter account or anything regarding florida's early voting and polling and stuff?

Social Studies 3rd Period posted:

Didn't AZ's get yanked from the ballot by a judge declaring some signatures getting it on there invalid or something?

FadedReality posted:

I just saw this posted this morning. Dunno how reputable UNF Public Opinion Research Lab is, but they say 73% support for Amendment 2 from their polling.

We had a majority vote in favor of medical in 2014 with 58%, but thanks to JEB! our Amendments have to hit 60% to pass.

JEB!'s 2006 amendment to make any further amendment require 60% to pass itself passed with 58% support.

e: beaten

Periodiko posted:

That's such a good point I hadn't even considered. Trump has no former Republican Presidents, all of his primary rivals hate his guts and are only working with him reluctantly except Chris Christie, who can't appear in public because of Bridgegate. Swing state congresscreatures are trying to walk a tight rope of not appearing too close to him. He has no surrogates. What a mess.

TheScott2K posted:

Seriously, this poo poo isn't just forum arguments and awkward Thanksgivings for the people Trump's been talking about this whole time. A lot of people who aren't part of marginalized groups tend to lose sight of that really easily.

DaveWoo posted:

https://twitter.com/hollybdc/status/794960998079852544

Maxwell Lord posted:

Just to note- on the one hand early in-person voting (as opposed to absentee ballots) favors Democrats, so the numbers may not reflect the state as a whole, but it also means people are voting that may not have had early voting not been available and that again will be to HRC's benefit. So fingers crossed.