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Kosumo
Apr 9, 2016




Yo, Fourth Stimpire, Do you party?

Kosumo fucked around with this message at 22:57 on Jan 15, 2017

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Slow_Moe
Feb 18, 2013



Posting on page 42, woohoo!


edit: god dammit too slow!

Slow_Moe fucked around with this message at 22:59 on Jan 15, 2017

boviscopophobic
Feb 5, 2016



This post was supposed to go in the Theoretical Cetology thread, but it's closed for "archiving", whatever that means. You can check there for the previous forum snapshot/demographic estimate that I refer to below.


JAN 2017 RSI DEMOGRAPHICS UPDATE

About 6 months and $25M have elapsed since the previous demographic snapshot of the RSI forum population. Updated funding-related statistics are summarized below. The methodology is mostly the same as in my previous post, so you can refer to that for details as well as an explanation of the meaning of each graph.

First off, the forum account vs RSI account rate discrepancy has stabilized at about 3.5, meaning that 3.5 RSI accounts are currently being created for every forum account. This ratio obviously spikes during free fly events.




For the funding-related graphs, the basic funding assumptions remain the same as last time, but there are three updates to the methodology. The first relates to closed accounts. Thanks to the wave of refunds post-Streetroller, I learned that is possible to determine with reasonable confidence if an RSI account has been closed, which generally indicates revocation due to refunds or possibly other misbehavior such as hacking. This latest set of summary graphs includes only accounts that were "alive" at the time of the snapshot. The previous set of graphs included a certain number of "dead" accounts, which affected the accuracy of the title counts.

The second change is that I've aggregated all titles not associated with a funding level into an "OTHER" title, except for a small set of user titles that I deemed to be CIG-related. These titles, namely "Staff", "Developer", "Creator", "QA", and "Game Master", are assigned the aggregate title of "CIG". Some other user titles that are arguably CIG-related, but which I did NOT include in the CIG set, are "Bug Moderator" and "Moderator". Note that some developer accounts may mark themselves as such as such only by their account name; these would not be included in the CIG count.

Finally, to counteract title churn from people changing their title, I look at each account's titles over a number of forum snapshots and use the one that implies the highest funding level. Since user titles can be "understated" but not "overstated", so to speak, this should be a reasonable procedure if user funding levels are non-decreasing. Thankfully, since CIG almost never grants partial refunds, an assumption of non-decreasing funding levels should not introduce too much additional error. (Note: if no funding-related titles are available, then CIG-related titles are prioritized over "OTHER" titles.)








The contribution of concierge-level backers (High Admiral and up) has slightly increased -- 56.4% under the mid funding scenario, versus 53.6% last time. If we compare the graph of estimated average user spending by quarter of enlistment with the previous version, we get the following average per-user increases:



This indicates that accounts of all "ages" are continuing to put money into Star Citizen, possibly more so for pre-2014 accounts. However, note that an increase of $10-15 or so is a small fraction of the likely average transaction amount -- recall that this period includes Gamescom, Citizencon, the anniversary livestream, and the holiday sale, which featured pricy concept ships, cash-only sales, capital ship sales, etc. Depending on what you think the average transaction amount is (which I have not attempted to estimate), you could translate this into an estimate of the size of the current paying backer population.

Another longitudinal view of the backer population can be obtained by constructing contingency tables at various time snapshots. For example, the following is a comparison of highest user titles achieved through early August 2016, versus early January 2017. Because of how highest titles are computed, this table contains some unknown fraction of users "leveling up" through spending, and some users simply adjusting previously understated titles upward. I believe that the dominant contribution is leveling up, especially when looking at movement between the higher tiers, but I have not attempted to quantify this.



Note that we have two new pseudo-titles: "DEAD", indicating that the account died off (refunds etc.) between Aug 2016 and Jan 2017, and "UNBORN", indicating that the account was made between Aug 2016 and Jan 2017. So for instance, we can see that of 92 completionists as of Aug 2016, 1 of those accounts got a refund. Of 193 wing commanders as of Aug 2016, 31 were promoted to completionist and 2 got a refund, etc. Notably, 22 CIG accounts "got a refund", which most likely means they left the company.

As a rough measure of the propensity of backer subpopulations to level up, we can construct a matrix of outflow percentages. In this table, the number in a particular row/column indicates the percentage of the population with that row's title that advanced to get the corresponding column's title. So for instance, 16.06% of all Wing Commanders in August became Completionists by January. Similarly, 0.37% of Civilians became Freelancers/Colonels, etc. The hottest cells consist of concierge backers (High Admiral and up) moving up one or two levels, and CIG accounts moving to the exits.



If we are interested in inferring refunds specifically, then we need to look at pairs of snapshots that are closer together in time. Otherwise we can miss salient developments -- for instance, if a Civilian in August became a Wing Commander in November then got a refund in December, it would only show up as a Civilian refund in the above table. Using a set of several snapshots I derived the following counts for account deaths per highest title. I also noticed a large number of newly established Civilian accounts showing up as dead. To exclude possible low-effort banhammered trolls from the refund counts, I only counted Civilian accounts if they were confirmed as being alive for at least 45 days in at least one historical snapshot.

  • Completionist: 5
  • Wing Commander: 4
  • Space Marshal/Lieutenant Commander: 19
  • Grand Admiral: 27
  • High Admiral: 70
  • Vice Admiral: 47
  • Rear Admiral: 58
  • Freelancer/Colonel: 116
  • Bounty Hunter: 67
  • Mercenary: 61
  • Scout: 32
  • Civilian: 448
  • CIG: 26
  • OTHER: 74

Since this is a small and very much non-random sample, the likely accuracy of the funding scenario assumptions (already not that good) is probably far worse for refunded accounts. On the one hand, Civilians are assumed to have a low average contribution partly due to the proliferation of free accounts; however, a refunded account would obviously not be a free account. On the other, high-value accounts may not be refunded for anywhere near their nominal value, due to grey market transactions.

If we go ahead and apply the min/mid/max funding assumptions anyway, we get refund totals of $407,420, $674,587.50, and $941,755, respectively. For another estimate, also problematic, we can consider the self-reported refund amounts from /r/starcitizen_refunds. From reading through the posts that stated actual refund amounts, I arrived at an average per-user refund of $1366.10. Applying this to the 1028 non-CIG refundees, we would get a total of $1,404,350.80. These estimates are of course only for the refunded forum population. The multiplier to get the total amount of refunds in the entire RSI population would likely be well less than 2.5, which is the ratio of all RSI accounts to all forum accounts.


CONCLUSIONS

All previous caveats about the accuracy of these estimates still apply. In addition, there are particular problems with trying to estimate refund amounts. Nevertheless, I think we can conclude that the refund outflows, while CIG certainly would find them annoying, are probably small enough in total that they can be easily compensated for with an extra concept sale (if we don't account for increases in engineering debt).

There are indications that funding is leaning even more heavily on concierge-level backers; this might be a good topic for follow-up analyses. Account age does not appear to play a large role in incremental spending.

Previously I speculated about a soft per-user average spending ceiling around $200. This now seems to be more of an artifact of the bounded time window the backer populations have had to spend their money in. As that time window lengthens, fresh spending continues apace and it remains to be seen when there will be a large-scale change in backer purchasing behavior.

Beet Wagon
Oct 19, 2015







Lipstick Apathy

Looks like we got ourselves a good old fashioned Doxxican Standoff

JugbandDude
Jul 19, 2016

Remember when you were young, you shone like the sun

Shine on you crazy diamond!


Wiz posted:

I am pretty smug, but honestly Star Citizen is just kind of really funny. It's the perfect amalgamation of so many things that are wrong about the games industry, and whenever it's brought up in any gathering of game devs it's good for a few laughs and stories about terrible bosses.

Since SC provides so much entertainment, could you break out the Vicky 3 news here first?

a PM will do

Trilobite
Aug 15, 2001


SelenicMartian posted:

"We plan the scope of the development based on what arrives monthly by the people to support."
What the gently caress?
Google Translate is a harsh mistress.

I imagine he wanted to convey that they ask for money every month and people give it to them, which means that they can keep expanding the scope of the game (or at least claim that the new money flowing in is going to make the game better in some way).

Given their history so far, though, it really comes off as "We ask for money every month and people give it to us, and as long as that keeps working, we can keep doing what we've been doing. But if that constant monthly income stops for some reason, we're going to have to come up with a scaled-back plan for the project to finish it with whatever money we've got left."

Decrepus
May 21, 2008

In the end, his dominion did not touch a single poster.


Beet Wagon posted:

Looks like we got ourselves a good old fashioned Doxxican Standoff



Star Citizen is like real life, you won't get far acting like a little bitch!

Posted from my mom's iPhone 5

Colostomy Bag
Jan 11, 2016

C-Bangin' it



Beet Wagon posted:

Looks like we got ourselves a good old fashioned Doxxican Standoff



I'm your Huckleberry.

Slow_Moe
Feb 18, 2013



Trilobite posted:

Google Translate is a harsh mistress.

I imagine he wanted to convey that they ask for money every month and people give it to them, which means that they can keep expanding the scope of the game (or at least claim that the new money flowing in is going to make the game better in some way).

Given their history so far, though, it really comes off as "We ask for money every month and people give it to us, and as long as that keeps working, we can keep doing what we've been doing. But if that constant monthly income stops for some reason, we're going to have to come up with a scaled-back plan for the project to finish it with whatever money we've got left."

Every time they receive money they expand the scope, driving people to give them more money.

An ouroboros of greed and stupidity.

DapperDon
Sep 7, 2016


Beet Wagon posted:

It's me I'm the guy who is giving a huge expensive presentation to the customers (that literally have been paying my bills for years and are expecting news of when they are going to get their products) who decides to "speak off the cuff" lmao

Because I too spend $thousands to travel across the Atlantic to go to the convention that is named after the product I have spent even more $thousands on just to listen to the CEO of that company complain that people are actually expecting him to keep to the timelines that he offers voluntarily and has failed to deliver any product for half a decade and call it off the cuff poor entertainment and not any real news about the product at all. gently caress everything about that guy.

alf_pogs
Feb 15, 2012



page 420 blaze it

Foo Diddley
Oct 29, 2011

Do you party?


TrustmeImLegit
Jan 14, 2017

by FactsAreUseless


boviscopophobic posted:

This post was supposed to go in the Theoretical Cetology thread, but it's closed for "archiving", whatever that means. You can check there for the previous forum snapshot/demographic estimate that I refer to below.


JAN 2017 RSI DEMOGRAPHICS UPDATE

About 6 months and $25M have elapsed since the previous demographic snapshot of the RSI forum population. Updated funding-related statistics are summarized below. The methodology is mostly the same as in my previous post, so you can refer to that for details as well as an explanation of the meaning of each graph.

First off, the forum account vs RSI account rate discrepancy has stabilized at about 3.5, meaning that 3.5 RSI accounts are currently being created for every forum account. This ratio obviously spikes during free fly events.




For the funding-related graphs, the basic funding assumptions remain the same as last time, but there are three updates to the methodology. The first relates to closed accounts. Thanks to the wave of refunds post-Streetroller, I learned that is possible to determine with reasonable confidence if an RSI account has been closed, which generally indicates revocation due to refunds or possibly other misbehavior such as hacking. This latest set of summary graphs includes only accounts that were "alive" at the time of the snapshot. The previous set of graphs included a certain number of "dead" accounts, which affected the accuracy of the title counts.

The second change is that I've aggregated all titles not associated with a funding level into an "OTHER" title, except for a small set of user titles that I deemed to be CIG-related. These titles, namely "Staff", "Developer", "Creator", "QA", and "Game Master", are assigned the aggregate title of "CIG". Some other user titles that are arguably CIG-related, but which I did NOT include in the CIG set, are "Bug Moderator" and "Moderator". Note that some developer accounts may mark themselves as such as such only by their account name; these would not be included in the CIG count.

Finally, to counteract title churn from people changing their title, I look at each account's titles over a number of forum snapshots and use the one that implies the highest funding level. Since user titles can be "understated" but not "overstated", so to speak, this should be a reasonable procedure if user funding levels are non-decreasing. Thankfully, since CIG almost never grants partial refunds, an assumption of non-decreasing funding levels should not introduce too much additional error. (Note: if no funding-related titles are available, then CIG-related titles are prioritized over "OTHER" titles.)








The contribution of concierge-level backers (High Admiral and up) has slightly increased -- 56.4% under the mid funding scenario, versus 53.6% last time. If we compare the graph of estimated average user spending by quarter of enlistment with the previous version, we get the following average per-user increases:



This indicates that accounts of all "ages" are continuing to put money into Star Citizen, possibly more so for pre-2014 accounts. However, note that an increase of $10-15 or so is a small fraction of the likely average transaction amount -- recall that this period includes Gamescom, Citizencon, the anniversary livestream, and the holiday sale, which featured pricy concept ships, cash-only sales, capital ship sales, etc. Depending on what you think the average transaction amount is (which I have not attempted to estimate), you could translate this into an estimate of the size of the current paying backer population.

Another longitudinal view of the backer population can be obtained by constructing contingency tables at various time snapshots. For example, the following is a comparison of highest user titles achieved through early August 2016, versus early January 2017. Because of how highest titles are computed, this table contains some unknown fraction of users "leveling up" through spending, and some users simply adjusting previously understated titles upward. I believe that the dominant contribution is leveling up, especially when looking at movement between the higher tiers, but I have not attempted to quantify this.



Note that we have two new pseudo-titles: "DEAD", indicating that the account died off (refunds etc.) between Aug 2016 and Jan 2017, and "UNBORN", indicating that the account was made between Aug 2016 and Jan 2017. So for instance, we can see that of 92 completionists as of Aug 2016, 1 of those accounts got a refund. Of 193 wing commanders as of Aug 2016, 31 were promoted to completionist and 2 got a refund, etc. Notably, 22 CIG accounts "got a refund", which most likely means they left the company.

As a rough measure of the propensity of backer subpopulations to level up, we can construct a matrix of outflow percentages. In this table, the number in a particular row/column indicates the percentage of the population with that row's title that advanced to get the corresponding column's title. So for instance, 16.06% of all Wing Commanders in August became Completionists by January. Similarly, 0.37% of Civilians became Freelancers/Colonels, etc. The hottest cells consist of concierge backers (High Admiral and up) moving up one or two levels, and CIG accounts moving to the exits.



If we are interested in inferring refunds specifically, then we need to look at pairs of snapshots that are closer together in time. Otherwise we can miss salient developments -- for instance, if a Civilian in August became a Wing Commander in November then got a refund in December, it would only show up as a Civilian refund in the above table. Using a set of several snapshots I derived the following counts for account deaths per highest title. I also noticed a large number of newly established Civilian accounts showing up as dead. To exclude possible low-effort banhammered trolls from the refund counts, I only counted Civilian accounts if they were confirmed as being alive for at least 45 days in at least one historical snapshot.

  • Completionist: 5
  • Wing Commander: 4
  • Space Marshal/Lieutenant Commander: 19
  • Grand Admiral: 27
  • High Admiral: 70
  • Vice Admiral: 47
  • Rear Admiral: 58
  • Freelancer/Colonel: 116
  • Bounty Hunter: 67
  • Mercenary: 61
  • Scout: 32
  • Civilian: 448
  • CIG: 26
  • OTHER: 74

Since this is a small and very much non-random sample, the likely accuracy of the funding scenario assumptions (already not that good) is probably far worse for refunded accounts. On the one hand, Civilians are assumed to have a low average contribution partly due to the proliferation of free accounts; however, a refunded account would obviously not be a free account. On the other, high-value accounts may not be refunded for anywhere near their nominal value, due to grey market transactions.

If we go ahead and apply the min/mid/max funding assumptions anyway, we get refund totals of $407,420, $674,587.50, and $941,755, respectively. For another estimate, also problematic, we can consider the self-reported refund amounts from /r/starcitizen_refunds. From reading through the posts that stated actual refund amounts, I arrived at an average per-user refund of $1366.10. Applying this to the 1028 non-CIG refundees, we would get a total of $1,404,350.80. These estimates are of course only for the refunded forum population. The multiplier to get the total amount of refunds in the entire RSI population would likely be well less than 2.5, which is the ratio of all RSI accounts to all forum accounts.


CONCLUSIONS

All previous caveats about the accuracy of these estimates still apply. In addition, there are particular problems with trying to estimate refund amounts. Nevertheless, I think we can conclude that the refund outflows, while CIG certainly would find them annoying, are probably small enough in total that they can be easily compensated for with an extra concept sale (if we don't account for increases in engineering debt).

There are indications that funding is leaning even more heavily on concierge-level backers; this might be a good topic for follow-up analyses. Account age does not appear to play a large role in incremental spending.

Previously I speculated about a soft per-user average spending ceiling around $200. This now seems to be more of an artifact of the bounded time window the backer populations have had to spend their money in. As that time window lengthens, fresh spending continues apace and it remains to be seen when there will be a large-scale change in backer purchasing behavior.
Dude its a popular project that raises lotsa money.

Canine Blues Arooo
Jan 7, 2008

when you think about it...i'm the first girl you ever spent the night with


Grimey Drawer

quote:

He says the universe will have "billions and billions" of NPCs in the economy, not the meager 10 million (I believe) that Chris has talked about simulating prior.

This is literally impossible. Even if the only thing your NPCs did was walk in a circle and vomit a line when a player pressed the 'A' button, the amount of resources this would take to simulate, generate, and communicate is astronomical.

quote:

They started with "a lot of art" that did not have ship docking in mind.

Sick PMing there. SDLC tip #1: It's generally wise to not implement until your requirements are nailed down.

quote:

They don't want to just figure out mining, they want to figure out resource collection overall, from collecting biological data to picking plants to collecting wood because you're freezing on a planet.

This kind of system design is something you could not possibly land correctly on without an unbelievable amount of iteration from testing - Not '12 guys are playing it internally' kind of testing either. You'd probably need several thousand people interacting with them for a long time. These kinds of systems are both ripe for extreme boredom and extreme abuse.

quote:

Players have to be able to do anything the NPCs can do. "This is a 100% living world with all of the stuff being interactable by everyone."
Everything I said above applies here.

quote:

You'll have to bring food and water places. If you crash on a planet someone has to come rescue you because you'll start to starve, though you'll have ample opportunity to find stuff to eat or hunt things or steal resources from someone else. The interviewer here recognizes the complexity inherent in the statement and observes, "So it's a totally different game at this point." Trufing replies, "That's Star Citizen." Gameplay loops varying from wandering in the desert to battleship combat.

This is impossible. You cannot strand players on planets without some failsafe (NPC comes to rescue you and take you to the nearest 'capital city' for 50% of your cash). That's such an unbelievably bad idea to even suggest that it makes my head hurt. Even with failsafes in place, to make it not feel like a binary, 'I have a backup plan' vs 'guess I'm waiting until that NPC shows up...' is really difficult. There'd have to be an incentive to go rescue players and if there is an incentive, then there's an economy, and if there is an economy, then down the rabbit hole we go...

Canine Blues Arooo fucked around with this message at 23:18 on Jan 15, 2017

Plural Abysss
Feb 25, 2016


alf_pogs posted:

page 420 blaze it

Can't let this page go without

Beexoffel
Oct 4, 2015

Herald of the Stimpire


Plural Abysss posted:

Can't let this page go without



Jumping ahead to post on a number page.

Mirificus
Oct 29, 2004

Kings need not raise their voices to be heard


Beet Wagon posted:

Looks like we got ourselves a good old fashioned Doxxican Standoff



Ellindar's Constellation bridge

Ellindar refusing to let his son play Elite: Dangerous because of the Frontier Star Citizen thread

Ellindar's experience with CIG moderators

Ellindar's former display name

Sandweed
Sep 7, 2006

All your friends are me.



420 get refunds erry day

Ghostlight
Sep 25, 2009

Success!



Galarox posted:

Please share the (probably terrifying) story attached to that anecdote
The punchline has already been spoiled, but I'm posting it anyway

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UJaLq4YOo0

Foo Diddley
Oct 29, 2011

Do you party?


Mirificus posted:

Ellindar's Constellation bridge

Ellindar refusing to let his son play Elite: Dangerous because of the Frontier Star Citizen thread

Ellindar's experience with CIG moderators

Ellindar's former display name


quote:

Will I let it stop me from being positive and support the game? Of course not

These people deserve everything they get

Colostomy Bag
Jan 11, 2016

C-Bangin' it



Hopefully Zillow places a premium on Constellation basement retrofits.

SirViver
Oct 22, 2008


Procedural planet tech progressing fine

Contingency
Jun 2, 2007

Doing a job.


boviscopophobic posted:

This post was supposed to go in the Theoretical Cetology thread, but it's closed for "archiving", whatever that means. You can check there for the previous forum snapshot/demographic estimate that I refer to below.


JAN 2017 RSI DEMOGRAPHICS UPDATE

About 6 months and $25M have elapsed since the previous demographic snapshot of the RSI forum population. Updated funding-related statistics are summarized below. The methodology is mostly the same as in my previous post, so you can refer to that for details as well as an explanation of the meaning of each graph.

First off, the forum account vs RSI account rate discrepancy has stabilized at about 3.5, meaning that 3.5 RSI accounts are currently being created for every forum account. This ratio obviously spikes during free fly events.




For the funding-related graphs, the basic funding assumptions remain the same as last time, but there are three updates to the methodology. The first relates to closed accounts. Thanks to the wave of refunds post-Streetroller, I learned that is possible to determine with reasonable confidence if an RSI account has been closed, which generally indicates revocation due to refunds or possibly other misbehavior such as hacking. This latest set of summary graphs includes only accounts that were "alive" at the time of the snapshot. The previous set of graphs included a certain number of "dead" accounts, which affected the accuracy of the title counts.

The second change is that I've aggregated all titles not associated with a funding level into an "OTHER" title, except for a small set of user titles that I deemed to be CIG-related. These titles, namely "Staff", "Developer", "Creator", "QA", and "Game Master", are assigned the aggregate title of "CIG". Some other user titles that are arguably CIG-related, but which I did NOT include in the CIG set, are "Bug Moderator" and "Moderator". Note that some developer accounts may mark themselves as such as such only by their account name; these would not be included in the CIG count.

Finally, to counteract title churn from people changing their title, I look at each account's titles over a number of forum snapshots and use the one that implies the highest funding level. Since user titles can be "understated" but not "overstated", so to speak, this should be a reasonable procedure if user funding levels are non-decreasing. Thankfully, since CIG almost never grants partial refunds, an assumption of non-decreasing funding levels should not introduce too much additional error. (Note: if no funding-related titles are available, then CIG-related titles are prioritized over "OTHER" titles.)








The contribution of concierge-level backers (High Admiral and up) has slightly increased -- 56.4% under the mid funding scenario, versus 53.6% last time. If we compare the graph of estimated average user spending by quarter of enlistment with the previous version, we get the following average per-user increases:



This indicates that accounts of all "ages" are continuing to put money into Star Citizen, possibly more so for pre-2014 accounts. However, note that an increase of $10-15 or so is a small fraction of the likely average transaction amount -- recall that this period includes Gamescom, Citizencon, the anniversary livestream, and the holiday sale, which featured pricy concept ships, cash-only sales, capital ship sales, etc. Depending on what you think the average transaction amount is (which I have not attempted to estimate), you could translate this into an estimate of the size of the current paying backer population.

Another longitudinal view of the backer population can be obtained by constructing contingency tables at various time snapshots. For example, the following is a comparison of highest user titles achieved through early August 2016, versus early January 2017. Because of how highest titles are computed, this table contains some unknown fraction of users "leveling up" through spending, and some users simply adjusting previously understated titles upward. I believe that the dominant contribution is leveling up, especially when looking at movement between the higher tiers, but I have not attempted to quantify this.



Note that we have two new pseudo-titles: "DEAD", indicating that the account died off (refunds etc.) between Aug 2016 and Jan 2017, and "UNBORN", indicating that the account was made between Aug 2016 and Jan 2017. So for instance, we can see that of 92 completionists as of Aug 2016, 1 of those accounts got a refund. Of 193 wing commanders as of Aug 2016, 31 were promoted to completionist and 2 got a refund, etc. Notably, 22 CIG accounts "got a refund", which most likely means they left the company.

As a rough measure of the propensity of backer subpopulations to level up, we can construct a matrix of outflow percentages. In this table, the number in a particular row/column indicates the percentage of the population with that row's title that advanced to get the corresponding column's title. So for instance, 16.06% of all Wing Commanders in August became Completionists by January. Similarly, 0.37% of Civilians became Freelancers/Colonels, etc. The hottest cells consist of concierge backers (High Admiral and up) moving up one or two levels, and CIG accounts moving to the exits.



If we are interested in inferring refunds specifically, then we need to look at pairs of snapshots that are closer together in time. Otherwise we can miss salient developments -- for instance, if a Civilian in August became a Wing Commander in November then got a refund in December, it would only show up as a Civilian refund in the above table. Using a set of several snapshots I derived the following counts for account deaths per highest title. I also noticed a large number of newly established Civilian accounts showing up as dead. To exclude possible low-effort banhammered trolls from the refund counts, I only counted Civilian accounts if they were confirmed as being alive for at least 45 days in at least one historical snapshot.

  • Completionist: 5
  • Wing Commander: 4
  • Space Marshal/Lieutenant Commander: 19
  • Grand Admiral: 27
  • High Admiral: 70
  • Vice Admiral: 47
  • Rear Admiral: 58
  • Freelancer/Colonel: 116
  • Bounty Hunter: 67
  • Mercenary: 61
  • Scout: 32
  • Civilian: 448
  • CIG: 26
  • OTHER: 74

Since this is a small and very much non-random sample, the likely accuracy of the funding scenario assumptions (already not that good) is probably far worse for refunded accounts. On the one hand, Civilians are assumed to have a low average contribution partly due to the proliferation of free accounts; however, a refunded account would obviously not be a free account. On the other, high-value accounts may not be refunded for anywhere near their nominal value, due to grey market transactions.

If we go ahead and apply the min/mid/max funding assumptions anyway, we get refund totals of $407,420, $674,587.50, and $941,755, respectively. For another estimate, also problematic, we can consider the self-reported refund amounts from /r/starcitizen_refunds. From reading through the posts that stated actual refund amounts, I arrived at an average per-user refund of $1366.10. Applying this to the 1028 non-CIG refundees, we would get a total of $1,404,350.80. These estimates are of course only for the refunded forum population. The multiplier to get the total amount of refunds in the entire RSI population would likely be well less than 2.5, which is the ratio of all RSI accounts to all forum accounts.


CONCLUSIONS

All previous caveats about the accuracy of these estimates still apply. In addition, there are particular problems with trying to estimate refund amounts. Nevertheless, I think we can conclude that the refund outflows, while CIG certainly would find them annoying, are probably small enough in total that they can be easily compensated for with an extra concept sale (if we don't account for increases in engineering debt).

There are indications that funding is leaning even more heavily on concierge-level backers; this might be a good topic for follow-up analyses. Account age does not appear to play a large role in incremental spending.

Previously I speculated about a soft per-user average spending ceiling around $200. This now seems to be more of an artifact of the bounded time window the backer populations have had to spend their money in. As that time window lengthens, fresh spending continues apace and it remains to be seen when there will be a large-scale change in backer purchasing behavior.

How feasible would it be to use the "last active" forum field as a proxy for refund date? People not logging on before requesting a refund through Zendesk would skew the refund date more to the past, but it'd serve as a rough guideline. Would be interesting to see a quarterly breakdown that can be tied to events (Star Marine cancellation, DS ELE prediction posts, post-sale remorse, etc.).

Samizdata
May 14, 2007


In on 420 yo!

Kosumo
Apr 9, 2016


Contingency posted:

How feasible would it be to use the "last active" forum field as a proxy for refund date? People not logging on before requesting a refund through Zendesk would skew the refund date more to the past, but it'd serve as a rough guideline. Would be interesting to see a quarterly breakdown that can be tied to events (Star Marine cancellation, DS ELE prediction posts, post-sale remorse, etc.).

I have that info for you, the event is ALWAYS Derek Smart.

8 Ball
Nov 27, 2010

My hands are all messed up so you better post, brother.


College Slice

420 buy jpegs errday

Sunswipe
Feb 5, 2016

STILL ANGRY ABOUT CHEESE


Slow_Moe posted:

Posting on page 42, woohoo!


edit: god dammit too slow!

Underrated post.

COMPAGNIE TOMMY
Jan 24, 2016

If you can look into the seeds of time, and say which grain will grow and which will not...





420 dude blaze a bowl every day

*smokes space spliff*

Samizdata
May 14, 2007


8 Ball posted:

420 buy jpegs errday

Even I am not that stupid/high.

trucutru
Jul 9, 2003

Invoking fairy dust is not a crime.


It's not like I wanted to post on this lovely page!

MeLKoR
Dec 23, 2004

by FactsAreUseless


scrubs season six posted:

Look at this guy that doesn't have the MC Hammer anthology
https://i.imgur.com/WLUoXBV.mp4


Galarox posted:

I got the pow-ah
That's SNAP, fool!

e:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUb_S4e-Rd4

gently caress meeeeeeeee, this is 27 years old this month.

MeLKoR fucked around with this message at 00:55 on Jan 16, 2017

The Titanic
Sep 15, 2016

Unsinkable


TrustmeImLegit posted:

Well I'll keep in mind to try not to use memes here from now on.

I disagree that its a scam. You don't employ that many people and kill yourselves in crunch if you were just looking to make a scam buck off someone.

I may be wrong, but something tells me that Chris Roberts doesn't participate with crunch time efforts.

Well I guess unless you're referring to Italian, Hawaiian, and who knows what else sorts of holidays.

But maybe I'm wrong.

ewe2
Jul 1, 2009

TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP

put clinton in prison imo


Lipstick Apathy

420 fake game development errydai

Regrettable
Jan 4, 2010



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eIXwRztIyqE

EmesiS
Feb 5, 2016



I smoked Star Citizen for a month one night

Thoatse
Feb 29, 2016

It's just a pledge bro!


MeLKoR
Dec 23, 2004

by FactsAreUseless


Mirificus posted:

Ellindar's Constellation bridge


Ellindar refusing to let his son play Elite: Dangerous because of the Frontier Star Citizen thread


Ellindar's experience with CIG moderators


Ellindar's former display name


You forgot this one



Hello? Sir? I need to speak to you for a minute about the BDSSE. Are you familiar with Hollywood movie and games producer Chris Rob-- Sir? Hello?

MilesK
Nov 5, 2015



Chin posted:

Players have to be able to do anything the NPCs can do. "This is a 100% living world with all of the stuff being interactable by everyone.".

Confirmed new professions, mopping expert, guy who makes hand signals at spaceships, and underpants salesmen.

fuctifino
Jun 11, 2001



Grimey Drawer

Is it too late to post on page ?

e: nope

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Combat Pretzel
Jun 23, 2004

No, seriously... what kurds?!

Chin posted:

You'll have to bring food and water places. If you crash on a planet someone has to come rescue you because you'll start to starve, though you'll have ample opportunity to find stuff to eat or hunt things or steal resources from someone else. The interviewer here recognizes the complexity inherent in the statement and observes, "So it's a totally different game at this point." Trufing replies, "That's Star Citizen." Gameplay loops varying from wandering in the desert to battleship combat.
Yeah, like that's not going to be exploited by griefers. Didn't these idiots at RSI want to implement permadeath?

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