Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

Boom. Refund issued. $560.

boviscopophobic posted:

This post was supposed to go in the Theoretical Cetology thread, but it's closed for "archiving", whatever that means. You can check there for the previous forum snapshot/demographic estimate that I refer to below.


JAN 2017 RSI DEMOGRAPHICS UPDATE

About 6 months and $25M have elapsed since the previous demographic snapshot of the RSI forum population. Updated funding-related statistics are summarized below. The methodology is mostly the same as in my previous post, so you can refer to that for details as well as an explanation of the meaning of each graph.

First off, the forum account vs RSI account rate discrepancy has stabilized at about 3.5, meaning that 3.5 RSI accounts are currently being created for every forum account. This ratio obviously spikes during free fly events.




For the funding-related graphs, the basic funding assumptions remain the same as last time, but there are three updates to the methodology. The first relates to closed accounts. Thanks to the wave of refunds post-Streetroller, I learned that is possible to determine with reasonable confidence if an RSI account has been closed, which generally indicates revocation due to refunds or possibly other misbehavior such as hacking. This latest set of summary graphs includes only accounts that were "alive" at the time of the snapshot. The previous set of graphs included a certain number of "dead" accounts, which affected the accuracy of the title counts.

The second change is that I've aggregated all titles not associated with a funding level into an "OTHER" title, except for a small set of user titles that I deemed to be CIG-related. These titles, namely "Staff", "Developer", "Creator", "QA", and "Game Master", are assigned the aggregate title of "CIG". Some other user titles that are arguably CIG-related, but which I did NOT include in the CIG set, are "Bug Moderator" and "Moderator". Note that some developer accounts may mark themselves as such as such only by their account name; these would not be included in the CIG count.

Finally, to counteract title churn from people changing their title, I look at each account's titles over a number of forum snapshots and use the one that implies the highest funding level. Since user titles can be "understated" but not "overstated", so to speak, this should be a reasonable procedure if user funding levels are non-decreasing. Thankfully, since CIG almost never grants partial refunds, an assumption of non-decreasing funding levels should not introduce too much additional error. (Note: if no funding-related titles are available, then CIG-related titles are prioritized over "OTHER" titles.)








The contribution of concierge-level backers (High Admiral and up) has slightly increased -- 56.4% under the mid funding scenario, versus 53.6% last time. If we compare the graph of estimated average user spending by quarter of enlistment with the previous version, we get the following average per-user increases:



This indicates that accounts of all "ages" are continuing to put money into Star Citizen, possibly more so for pre-2014 accounts. However, note that an increase of $10-15 or so is a small fraction of the likely average transaction amount -- recall that this period includes Gamescom, Citizencon, the anniversary livestream, and the holiday sale, which featured pricy concept ships, cash-only sales, capital ship sales, etc. Depending on what you think the average transaction amount is (which I have not attempted to estimate), you could translate this into an estimate of the size of the current paying backer population.

Another longitudinal view of the backer population can be obtained by constructing contingency tables at various time snapshots. For example, the following is a comparison of highest user titles achieved through early August 2016, versus early January 2017. Because of how highest titles are computed, this table contains some unknown fraction of users "leveling up" through spending, and some users simply adjusting previously understated titles upward. I believe that the dominant contribution is leveling up, especially when looking at movement between the higher tiers, but I have not attempted to quantify this.



Note that we have two new pseudo-titles: "DEAD", indicating that the account died off (refunds etc.) between Aug 2016 and Jan 2017, and "UNBORN", indicating that the account was made between Aug 2016 and Jan 2017. So for instance, we can see that of 92 completionists as of Aug 2016, 1 of those accounts got a refund. Of 193 wing commanders as of Aug 2016, 31 were promoted to completionist and 2 got a refund, etc. Notably, 22 CIG accounts "got a refund", which most likely means they left the company.

As a rough measure of the propensity of backer subpopulations to level up, we can construct a matrix of outflow percentages. In this table, the number in a particular row/column indicates the percentage of the population with that row's title that advanced to get the corresponding column's title. So for instance, 16.06% of all Wing Commanders in August became Completionists by January. Similarly, 0.37% of Civilians became Freelancers/Colonels, etc. The hottest cells consist of concierge backers (High Admiral and up) moving up one or two levels, and CIG accounts moving to the exits.



If we are interested in inferring refunds specifically, then we need to look at pairs of snapshots that are closer together in time. Otherwise we can miss salient developments -- for instance, if a Civilian in August became a Wing Commander in November then got a refund in December, it would only show up as a Civilian refund in the above table. Using a set of several snapshots I derived the following counts for account deaths per highest title. I also noticed a large number of newly established Civilian accounts showing up as dead. To exclude possible low-effort banhammered trolls from the refund counts, I only counted Civilian accounts if they were confirmed as being alive for at least 45 days in at least one historical snapshot.

• Completionist: 5
  
• Wing Commander: 4
  
• Space Marshal/Lieutenant Commander: 19
  
• Grand Admiral: 27
  
• High Admiral: 70
  
• Vice Admiral: 47
  
• Rear Admiral: 58
  
• Freelancer/Colonel: 116
  
• Bounty Hunter: 67
  
• Mercenary: 61
  
• Scout: 32
  
• Civilian: 448
  
• CIG: 26
  
• OTHER: 74
  

Since this is a small and very much non-random sample, the likely accuracy of the funding scenario assumptions (already not that good) is probably far worse for refunded accounts. On the one hand, Civilians are assumed to have a low average contribution partly due to the proliferation of free accounts; however, a refunded account would obviously not be a free account. On the other, high-value accounts may not be refunded for anywhere near their nominal value, due to grey market transactions.

If we go ahead and apply the min/mid/max funding assumptions anyway, we get refund totals of $407,420, $674,587.50, and $941,755, respectively. For another estimate, also problematic, we can consider the self-reported refund amounts from /r/starcitizen_refunds. From reading through the posts that stated actual refund amounts, I arrived at an average per-user refund of $1366.10. Applying this to the 1028 non-CIG refundees, we would get a total of $1,404,350.80. These estimates are of course only for the refunded forum population. The multiplier to get the total amount of refunds in the entire RSI population would likely be well less than 2.5, which is the ratio of all RSI accounts to all forum accounts.


CONCLUSIONS

All previous caveats about the accuracy of these estimates still apply. In addition, there are particular problems with trying to estimate refund amounts. Nevertheless, I think we can conclude that the refund outflows, while CIG certainly would find them annoying, are probably small enough in total that they can be easily compensated for with an extra concept sale (if we don't account for increases in engineering debt).

There are indications that funding is leaning even more heavily on concierge-level backers; this might be a good topic for follow-up analyses. Account age does not appear to play a large role in incremental spending.

Previously I speculated about a soft per-user average spending ceiling around $200. This now seems to be more of an artifact of the bounded time window the backer populations have had to spend their money in. As that time window lengthens, fresh spending continues apace and it remains to be seen when there will be a large-scale change in backer purchasing behavior.

The Titanic posted:

Congrats, friend. I hope the next thing you spend this money on will have more value to you.

Lladre posted:

This is a great clip. Wheres it from? I like how the ladies money is burning by collateral damage.

Lladre posted:

I forget with all the stuff that happens with this fiasco, but did we already know that these guys have been making models and ships for CiG?

https://cgbot.com/home-extended/portfolio-2/

It's like every time I turn around they have yet another outside company doing their work. WTF are their crews even doing?

Virtual Captain posted:

Repair scaffolds? link please.

Closest I know is:


Could probably be on The Tracker more clearly. "Realistic ship damage" has more to do with how damage is applied than repair mechanics and visuals.

quote:

The Crucible is also part of a larger planned repair system. For larger project, independent sections of support struts and drive units, called the Miller ERS (External Repair Structure), can be locked together to form a sort of scaffolding around a damaged starship, the next best thing to an orbital drydock. A standard ERS unit includes a small drive, thrusters, magnetic attach points and modular hardpoints for mounting tractor beams, repair tools or weapons. ERS segments each have a code defining their shape (P1 = Straight section, P2= Left turn, P3 = Right turn, etc.) with the multiple layouts allowing extensive zero-gravity construction as necessary. In the case of damaged capital ships, like the Navy’s Bengal carriers, hundreds of ERS units might be formed into a latticework serviced by a dozen or more Crucibles.

Solarin posted:

XK posted:

I'm too lazy, and somebody else probably has more convenience to doing it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford%27s_law#Accounting_fraud_detection

The Titanic posted:

I wish I knew why people bang their heads against the Derek wall. They know what’s going to happen because Derek has done it to many people who have went toe to toe with him.

I guess they feel they will somehow be the Chosen One? The one who owns Derek so hard that he goes in a corner and cries? Because this has happened... never?

Well, good luck to the newest candidate to try to show up Derek at his own game. He’ll probably need all the luck he can get. Though I imagine if they get served actual court papers I have a feeling they get super cooperative, especially since winning an argument on the Internet, especially over a ducking video game, probably gets really stupid sounding at that point.

Galarox posted:

Ok so - Goons who know better please correct me if I am wrong, but I thought that the whole offline/online thing with ED was resolved ages and ages ago after it caused a lot of stink and a lot of refunds when they said that offline wouldn't be part of the final product. How does this clown not know this?

Toops posted:

DapperDon posted:

Actually I do.

Lladre posted:

And another one bites the dust.

D_Smart posted:

Yes. And they have the ex-Crytek Gods who have been working wonders since they were poached back in 2015. But they had to switch to Lumberyard though. After all, even Gods have to eat.

D_Smart posted:

The financials are essential to Crytek's damages claims for SQ42.

My guess is that CIG will do everything to prevent the financials getting into the hands of Crytek.

They will lose.

Then the next fight would be to have it filed under seal (inaccessible to the public).

They will lose because Crytek is likely to evoke their own ToS in which they had no problem saying they would disclose it publicly to backers. Then backed out of it in June 2016. That ToS change pre-dates their alleged breach for which they are being sued.

They will lose.

Then everyone will see the financials, but not to the details to what a loving space door cost, but enough to know how much they actually raised - through ALL venues - versus what they publicly claimed. It will also show how much they have left at the time of the discovery submission.

D_Smart posted:

Yes. That's how damages are calculated. It's standard.

In fact, Scruffpuff put it rather hilariously yesterday. So naturally, I appropriated his original, and revised it.

https://twitter.com/dsmart/status/968928012208099328

This is what's going to trip them up, and they know it. There is NO way they get around it. Crytek WILL get those financials one way or another. CIG will fight. They will lose.

D_Smart posted:

Because Crytek v CIG has personal (if you are no aware of all the bad blood, and why - well, I don't know what to tell you) undertones and this sort of thing is what would be embarrassing and/or detrimental to CIG as per the image they are trying to "protect".

In ALL cases, the goal is always to embarrass, insult etc the other side if at all possible. This is why the filings of CIG are so cringe-worthy. And it's allowed because the court has leeway in what can be put in a filing. Heck, you can outright defame, accuse, insult etc with impunity. Unless and until the judge puts a stop to it, a lawsuit is basically open season for that sort of conduct.

Beet Wagon posted:

Hello friends,

I think these all work, enjoy!

Mr Fronts posted:

Renegret posted:

honestly I'll be surprised if CIG has version control good enough to actually roll back to an old build.

Hav posted:

Yeah, I just don't know how people do the translation from complaining about your order at Wendys to any other company. I certainly wasn't making a moral argument. The kind of people that try to exert external pressure are...odd.


There's the difference between public disclosure and the new fashion of simply pointing people incapable of doing a whois lookup at a 'target', given the lethal circumstances behind at least one _swatting_ (and the swatters seeming complete lack of remorse). It's _vastly irresponsible_ to disclose or other point to disclosure of information not the least because the loving golden rule, 'do to others as you wish done to yourself' is more basic than any fine discussion of the ins and outs of what 'doxxing' is. The internet includes a lot of people that are _outright disturbed_ that tend to draw very straight lines between perceived motives and actions despite the whole cause and effect thing.

I got doxxed back in the 90s, and it wasn't a lot of fun.

Likewise, although legal filings contain personally identifiable information, you're expected to practice some reticence over republishing the information out of context.

Also there's a public interest angle which is always, always a hard 'no' unless you have press credentials. Even in those cases, you don't loving do it without really good reasons.

Tinfoil Papercut posted:

Thanks for the insight, Mr. HYMAN G. RICKOVER

Gamesguy posted:

That's the economic definition of disposable income but I don't think most people consider food and mortgage payment to be "money a grown rear end man with a job can spend on whatever the hell he wants".

Unless you think jpgs are more important than having a roof over your head.

Tnuctip posted:

drat i remember uplink it was the poo poo. Is this one still all hacky or is it fps matrixy combat stuff?

Sunswipe posted:

Anyone would love the game. The fantasy is literally Everything!: The Game. Want to be a space smuggler? You can! Want to hunt sandworms? You can! Want to tediously load boxes onto someone else's ship for minimum wage? You're mental, but you can! Want to inflict the inevitable consequences of piracy on other players? You're probably on an FBI watchlist, but you can! Seriously, there's hardly a genre of game that hasn't been promised to be included in Star Citizen and be better than whatever the big name in that genre is. It's like promising a car that fits in the tightest parking spot, has enough room inside for seven people and their luggage to go on holiday, gets 100 miles to the gallon at 200mph, comes fitted with every cutting edge feature and costs less than a Dacia Sandero. Of course people would love it, that doesn't mean it can possibly exist.

Hav posted:

_critically acclaimed_ Call of Dooky and _massively earning_ Battlefail. Lets qualify the hyperbole a little.

I think both franchises have released 2 during this long wait? We've had 2 far crys and an absolute shower of AssCreeds.

Star Citizen could actually be the first multigenerational game where the aspirations of the parents have to be realized by their children.

Hav posted:

You will that bathroom really hard and get something out before Love Pledge.

Zzr posted:

Counterpoint : people correct typos to make the corrected a better human being.

XK posted:

What date was it when Turbulent accidentallied the 500k number?

VictorianQueerLit posted:

The point isn't that there is an abundance of idiot nerds it's that CIG quadrupled the size of their 2017 convention which seemed odd. I don't think interest in the game has grown at all.

It isn't because they are in the US this year either because their past conventions in California at the height of the autistic fervor for spaceships weren't half this big.

Maybe it's just what venues are available at each location each year but I'll throw out the baseless speculation that they need to increase the amount of marks to scam in person. You get nerds whipped into a frenzy because they are meeting their hero and with an excited crowd so they are probably more likely to buy the spaceships you are going to be advertising to them with literal commercials during the presentation.

I don't think anyone keeps track but I'd be curious to see how MLM scams evolve and if they also would expand the quantity of potential marks to address cash flow issues.

Slow_Moe posted:

Here's what I am wondering: Why does CIG not just simply sell LTI upgrades? The backers would surely buy them, and the grey market wouldn't get a penny.

Slow_Moe posted:

But here is the thing: They've already done it, in a somewhat roundabout way. The dragonfly(?) space bike came with LTI and people used CCU to upgrade it. As for scarcity, they've repeated sales of older jpegs that were considered "in limited stock".

It seems to me the obvious thing to do. And yet they aren't doing it. I dunno, maybe they're just a bunch of idiots or something.

Quavers posted:

that Colorado's Office of Film, Television, and Media thinks CIG did filming in their state, and didn't just falsify their Film Incentives claims via fraudulent invoices to Illfonic.

quote:

The Film Office overpaid one incentive by $36,500, or about 5 percent of the total $764,000 approved amount, in Fiscal Year 2016. The overpayment occurred because the production company improperly included about $212,000 in expenses that were incurred prior to the effective date of the contract. Therefore, the incentive the Film Office paid was more than 20 percent of the production’s actual qualified local expenditures. The CPA report for this project did not identify or correct this error.

Jason Sextro posted:

I take some exception with this, just because I think the gaming rags have so little integrity they will never actually approach it from that angle. Once it becomes clear what's going on, they'll start to act like they knew it all along. "How did we not see this coming?" would actually be an improvement on what's to come, imo.

Peter.Quint posted:

Alright, I'm watching the DiscoLando twitch stream.

Christ, that man looks broken. He's got a twist in his voice that you hear when someone's been shaken or attacked, belittled in some way.

CIG must be a loving poisonous place to work now, even worse than before.

I actually feel sorry for the guy.

Apart from being a shill for the twat festival that is Star Citizen has DL actually done anything that bad?

Dark Off posted:

NOTE: Discord-hosted image links (like this one) expire approximately 24hrs after they were copied from Discord.

Scruffpuff posted:

That to me is the biggest mathematical clue. Even on the busiest road there are times of quiet. But not the CIG tracker. You could set an atomic clock to it.