Republicans control the House, and they control the Senate. District lines are drawn in such a way that the median House district is far more conservative than the median American voter — resulting in situations like 2012 where House Democrats secured more votes than House Republicans but the GOP retained a healthy majority. The Senate, too, is in effect naturally gerrymandered to favor Republicans. Two years from now the Democratic Party will need to fight to retain seats in very difficult states like North Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, Indiana, and Missouri along with merely contestable ones in places like Florida, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

In state government things are worse, if anything. The GOP now controls historical record number of governors’ mansions, including a majority of New England governorships. Tuesday’s election swapped around a few state legislative houses but left Democrats controlling a distinct minority. The same story applies further down ballot, where most elected attorneys general, insurance commissioners, secretaries of state, and so forth are Republicans.

OMG sriracha pudding! posted:

The republicans have full control of the legislature and executive in 32 states; 6 more and they can start amending the constitution! This should scare the poo poo out of people.

Cease to Hope posted:

https://twitter.com/ericgreitens/status/817800367119417345

https://twitter.com/celestebott/status/818532889042309121

Kim Jong Il posted:

Wisniewski is just a generic Democrat who's making a last ditch bid for office, and is rumored to already have a deal with Murphy to serve in his cabinet. It's hilarious how quickly the state party cleared the path for Murphy. 8 years after Jon Corzine lost big. New Jersey Democrats sure as poo poo love their Goldman Sachs cash and less so their principles.

There's a lot of talk LG Kim Guadagno will run in the primary, I don't think she'll be a good candidate though. At this point it looks like Tom Kean Jr. won't run. All of the Republicans are terrified to run because they think it'll be a certain loss.

ComradeCosmobot posted:

1 more legislature (they have 33) and they can call for a convention to propose a balanced budget amendment. Because that's exactly what "common sense" amendment they'll call for first.

nonrev posted:

Special elections are being held today in parts of Virginia. There a very small chance it could shift the state senate back to slight Democratic control.

Washington Post posted:

Northam and Perriello hold their fire in first Democratic gubernatorial debate in Va.

Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam and former congressman Tom Perriello, locked in a neck-and-neck battle for the Democratic nomination to be Virginia’s governor, saved their harshest words for President Trump over the weekend, making their first primary debate a largely positive, gentlemanly affair.

Northam and Perriello generally agreed on policy and exchanged only a few, gentle jabs during the hour-long forum moderated by NBC4 reporter Tom Sherwood. Saturday’s debate, the first of five, was held in Fairfax County — important territory in voter-rich Northern Virginia.

Offered a chance to rebut Northam’s assertion that Virginians should have greater priority in admission to public colleges and universities, compared with out-of-state students, Perriello said, “I would just take 30 seconds back to agree.”

Perriello, who upset Virginia’s Democratic establishment with his unexpected entry into the race in January, took pains to several times praise term-limited Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D), who is backing Northam.

“I think McAuliffe has done a tremendous job,” Perriello said in response to a question about whether this is a “change election.”

Yet Perriello also suggested he would do more to address the state’s opioid crisis, revamp its “regressive criminal code,” and raise the minimum wage, which he called a “poverty wage” in pricey Northern Virginia.

“So, no, I’m not satisfied with the status quo,” he said.

Sometimes knocked as too low-key, Northam was loose and lively. He left his spot on the stage at one point, after Sherwood forgot to give him a crack at a question, to playfully mark up the moderator’s notes as a teacher might correct a student’s paper.

While amiable all night, the lieutenant governor still asserted his liberal bona fides — and questioned Perriello’s with a few digs about the former congressman’s receipt of “dark money” from a political group that does not identify most of its donors, his past support for the National Rifle Association and his mixed record on abortion rights.

“I am the only statewide elected official over the years that has been outspoken against offshore drilling,” Northam said. “I have opposed fracking. . . . I have been against uranium mining.”

Sherwood gave each candidate the opportunity to ask the other a question — something Perriello said caught him off guard. He went first, with a softball: “The question I would ask is: What do you think you have learned most from your great service as lieutenant governor?”

When Northam was up, he lobbed something harder. He asked Perriello why he took campaign contributions from the NRA while in Congress, noting that it was after the 2007 mass shooting at Virginia Tech.

Perriello, who got an “A” rating from the NRA when he ran for Congress, noted he is no longer in the group’s good graces. “I called them a ‘nut-job, extremist organization’ and compared them to the John Birch Society,” he said. “I don’t imagine those checks are in the mail.”

Northam, 57, is a pediatric neurologist from the Eastern Shore who graduated from the Virginia Military Institute and, as an Army major, treated wounded soldiers during Operation Desert Storm. He said that he grew up with an appreciation of hunting but that, after treating toddlers injured by guns, he knew that “assault weapons have no place on our streets.”

He also spoke about taking on the tobacco industry as a legislator when he pushed through the state’s ban on smoking in restaurants, and how he skewered Republican efforts to require women to get a transvaginal ultrasound before obtaining an abortion.

Perriello, 42, grew up outside Charlottesville and got his undergraduate and law degrees from Yale. He won election to Congress in 2008. During his single term, he won stature within the party for supporting the Affordable Care Act despite his conservative district. He lost reelection in the tea party wave of 2010, in part because of his support for the health-care law — something that endeared him to President Obama.

But Perriello also has drawn fire from liberals for advocating an amendment to the ACA that would have prevented federal subsidies for insurance plans that cover abortion. Asked by Sherwood about abortion, Perriello made no mention of his past. Instead, he presented himself as a strong advocate for abortion rights and also said abortion services should be made more accessible, noting some places around the state lack clinics.

Perriello has sworn off donations from Dominion Power — the state’s largest utility and largest political donor — and opposes two oil and natural gas pipelines planned for rural Virginia. Northam has not taken a position on the pipelines, which McAuliffe has touted as a source of jobs, but says they must be subjected to strict environmental review.

One of the sharpest exchanges of the night came after Northam said he had sent letter to state environmental officials, pressing them to make the pipeline review process more transparent. Perriello asked Northam if he had discussed the letter beforehand with Dominion.

“I’m not going to stand here on the witness stand,” Northam replied. “It’s not a ‘yes’ or ‘no,’ or us versus them.”

Perriello repeated his call for publicly financed campaigns. Northam said he favors comprehensive campaign finance reform.

The debate did not dwell on Trump, but Perriello framed his bid as a means of resisting the president in a closing statement so fiery that Sherwood responded with, “Pass the collection plate.”

“Just a few months ago, most of us were busy crying,” Perriello said to laughs. “We were paralyzed. We didn’t know what had become of a country that had elected a person who had run the most overtly racist campaign of my lifetime. . . . But all of you, and millions of others across the country, decided to get up off our couch and organize and resist.”

He continued: “I have pledged to, within the limits of the law, to have noncompliance with any acts of the Trump administration that are unconstitutional and unconscionable in nature.”

Northam, while vowing to “stand up to the narcissistic maniac on the other side of the Potomac,” mostly went for the soft sell.

“As a pediatrician, I have held a lot of babies in my arms,” he said. “And when you look into the eyes of a baby, you know, you don’t see the hatred and the bigotry that we so often see in society. And our question — as a society, as Virginians — is, what are these babies going to grow up to be? . . . Are they going to have access to a world-class education system? Are they going to have access to affordable health care? And are they going to live in environments where the air and the water are clean?”

There was no real discussion of the three Republicans running for governor, but Perriello criticized the front-runner, former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie, for not speaking out against Trump’s entry ban on travelers from predominantly Muslim countries.

Gillespie faces Prince William County Supervisors Chairman Corey A. Stewart and state Sen. Frank W. Wagner (Virginia Beach) in the GOP’s June 13 primary. The general election takes place Nov. 7.

axeil posted:

A "fun" fact on the GOP side, Corey Stewart has been getting in Twitter fights about Confederate memorials and is being a general piece of poo poo. This probably means he's somehow going to win his primary.

ComradeCosmobot posted:

1 more legislature (they have 33) and they can call for a convention to propose a balanced budget amendment. Because that's exactly what "common sense" amendment they'll call for first.

GreyjoyBastard posted:

Which has to be loving ratified by 75% of State Whatsits.

mcmagic posted:

I went to a forum tonight for the NJ Governor's primary that all the candidates showed up for other than Kim Guardano. It's unbelievable to me that the party would nominate someone like Murphy who is a true goldman sachs mediocrity after what we went through with Corzine. Murphy is ahead by a mile and he talks the part but he also looks and talks like a used car salesman... I guess we just have to hope that he's our version of Mcauliffe?

axeil posted:

A T-Mac for NJ isn't that bad an outcome. I was pretty annoyed about him back in 2013 but he's been a remarkably effective governor and would easily win a 2nd term if VA politics weren't weird.

Your point on Corzine is an apt one though and something to be more concerned with given the NJ Democratic Party's past history though.

mcmagic posted:

The NJ Democratic party is a cesspool of shittiness so it's much more likely that Murphy will govern as Andrew Cuomo 2.0 than McAuliffe. All you need to know about the party in this state is that they basically gifted the governorship to an ex Goldman Sachs professional fundraiser for the DNC. The guy is completely unimpressive other than his ability to self fund.

axeil posted:

Guy still has to get through the primary right? Who are his opponents?

Also in NJ being ex-Goldman might be an asset rather than a liability when half of North Jersey is linked to the financial sector.

mcmagic posted:

The guy who has the best chance of winning other than Murphy is John Wisniewski who is a state assemblyman that was involved in the Bridgegate investigation. He's pretty good and progressive. Is for Single Payer and pot legalization and 15 dollar wage. Give him money if you can.... http://wiz2017.com/

Murphy is way up in the polls but there is still over 50% undecided and Murphy literally the only one on TV right now.

axeil posted:

Huh, interesting. VA has a similar level of undecided, but here, unlike up in NJ there doesn't really seem to be much to distinguish between the two candidates. I think most people would be happy with either one.

When's the primary? Ours is in June. Both candidates are going to be up in NOVA today for a debate so I'm hoping I can get to go and see their debate.

FourLeaf posted:

https://twitter.com/zellieimani/status/859883659712647168

drat.

FourLeaf posted:

https://twitter.com/zellieimani/status/859883659712647168

drat.

FourLeaf posted:

https://twitter.com/zellieimani/status/859883659712647168

drat.

Richmond Times-Dispatch posted:

A mysterious PAC supporting Lt. Gov. Ralph S. Northam in Virginia’s Democratic gubernatorial primary has launched a last-minute digital ad that attacks former U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello over a controversial abortion vote, a negative message that drew a public rebuke from Northam.

The political action committee, Virginians for a Better Future, has filed reports with the Virginia Department of Elections saying it will spend roughly $120,000 on digital ads and direct mail supporting Northam and opposing Perriello in the final stretch before Tuesday’s primary. Though the identities of the PAC’s backers are unclear, the filings show the ad campaign was created with the help of companies with ties to prominent Virginia Democrats backing Northam, including Gov. Terry McAuliffe and influential state Sen. Richard L. Saslaw of Fairfax County.

Saslaw and the governor’s office said they had no knowledge of the PAC’s activities. The little-known Democratic operative listed as the PAC’s treasurer, Michael McShane of Keswick, did not return three messages left Thursday at the phone number listed on the PAC’s public filing. The PAC has not filed a report with the state disclosing its funding sources, and won’t have to file until after the primary.

At the beginning of their tightly contested primary battle, Perriello and Northam pledged to run gentlemanly, substantive campaigns. Though they’ve sparred on debate stages over their voting records, there has been no negative advertising from the campaigns thus far.

It’s not clear how many potential Democratic voters the ads could reach, but the outside spending could add to Northam’s advertising advantage with the Perriello campaign apparently running low on resources. Perriello loaned his own campaign $150,000 this week, according to the campaign, an infusion that required selling off assets and reaching into his savings.

In an email sent to McShane on Wednesday and copied to the Perriello campaign and several reporters, Northam told the PAC’s treasurer he wants the campaign to stay positive and insisted the messaging be driven by the candidates themselves in a spirit of “transparency and accountability.”

“Any negative campaigning against my opponent will draw an immediate denouncement from my campaign,” wrote Northam, who has criticized “dark money” in politics and called for sweeping reforms to Virginia’s loose campaign finance laws. “Therefore I am asking your committee to halt any and all spending that would constitute an attack on my opponent’s record.”

Perriello said in a statement Thursday evening that “close associates and backers of Lt. Gov. Northam have launched a desperate last-minute negative campaign against me,” adding: “This is exactly the kind of thing that correctly disgusts people about politics.” Perriello called on Northam to “show leadership in shutting down this shady campaign by tomorrow.”

In its independent expenditure filings with the state, required within 24 hours of money being used to influence an election, the PAC identified Seattle-based Moxie Media as the company it paid for a roughly $60,000 direct mail campaign. Moxie’s website lists Brian Zuzenak, McAuliffe’s former political director who led Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign in Virginia last year, as a partner at the firm. Zuzenak and Moxie did not respond to requests for comment.

Zuzenak formerly led McAuliffe’s Common Good VA PAC. The governor’s PAC paid him $13,500 in December for consulting work, according to state records compiled by the Virginia Public Access Project.

McAuliffe spokesman Brian Coy said the governor and his team had “no knowledge this was taking place” and agrees with Northam that negative ads are out of bounds.

“He hopes the ad campaign stops,” Coy said. “And he wants this primary to end on a positive note.”

The Perriello campaign said it became aware of the ads Sunday after a supporter spotted one on Facebook and brought it to the campaign’s attention.

The address listed for the company behind digital video ads that have been promoted on Facebook matches the address for SBDigital, a Washington, D.C., firm that employs Saslaw’s former campaign manager, Sam Sterling, as its director of campaigns and new media, according to the company’s website. Sterling and SBDigital did not respond to requests for comment.

The video ad, tagged “SBDigital — Bully 30” on the Virginians for a Better Future website, begins with a series of ominous headlines about President Donald Trump as a narrator says: “A bully threatens our way of life.”

“Who can we count on to stand up to Donald Trump? Not Tom Perriello,” the narrator says as a red “no” symbol appears over a photo of Perriello.

The ad then mentions Perriello’s vote in Congress for the so-called Stupak amendment, which would have prohibited federal funding for abortion coverage in the government-subsidized insurance plans being considered under the Affordable Care Act. Perriello has repeatedly said he regrets the 2009 vote. At the time, he has said, he was trying to keep a promise he made to constituents in his largely rural, Republican-leaning 5th Congressional District to ensure the health care bill complied with existing legislative provisions that prevent federal dollars from paying for abortions except in cases of incest and rape or when the mother’s health is at risk.

The PAC didn’t seem to heed Northam’s request to stop. The ad remained online as of late Thursday afternoon.

“Rather than sending a letter to the press, a far more effective way for them to get this desperate attack ad pulled would be to call their top surrogate Dick Saslaw directly,” said Perriello campaign spokesman Ian Sams.

In a brief phone interview, Saslaw said he doesn’t know who’s behind the PAC.

“I have no idea,” Saslaw said. “Never even heard of ’em.”

axeil posted:

Reminder to all VA-Goons, our primary is on Tuesday

Please go vote for Tom Perriello because Ralph Northam has turned out to be a major cock:

http://www.richmond.com/news/virgin...7eed42c17d.html

Quorum posted:

This is pretty gross and unfortunate-- up to now the race really has remained quite clean of the sort of negative ads that this represents. I suspect both candidates saw the animosity stirred after last year's presidential primaries and didn't want to do more than necessary to stir it up again. The race is still very tight, though, according to sparse polling, which makes it an enthusiasm and turnout game. Tom indisputably inspires more enthusiasm, but he's also angling to pick up people who don't vote as frequently, like young voters and rural democrats (I saw his signs alongside pipeline protest signs lining every road in Nelson County, for instance). Ordinarily I'd say this would be a very risky and unlikely strategy in Virginia'a ludicrously low turnout gubernatorial elections, but with Trump, I think it's got a much better chance of succeeding. I suspect Northam is feeling the heat and even if he himself didn't order this desperate line of attack ads, he's glad to have someone firing away.

e: I'm planning to update the OP following the primary, since most of these guys won't be relevant anymore and the races will start getting more play nationally as the summer progresses.

Quorum posted:

Hi friends! Today is primary day in Virginia, go vote! After today America's dumb off off year elections will all have pivoted to general election mode, and I know everyone is just desperately missing life in general election mode after last year, so get hype!

Kevin DuBrow posted:

In the event of Northam's likely and unfortunate victory, keep an eye on a live stream of his victory party ; )