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Grimoire
Jul 9, 2003
robot programer, we're safe till strong AI hits (hint: ain't happening for a loving while)

edit: software engineering expands year on year, but good lord there is a lot of work to be done. 70s - 90s crapware business code written in proprietary COBOL or FORTRAN or maybe incomprehensible and arcane enterprise Java runs the world, is fragile as gently caress, but MUST be kept running if you wanna use ATMs or book a flight or whatever.

Grimoire has issued a correction as of 00:05 on Jan 21, 2017

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Lindsey O. Graham
Dec 31, 2016

"We're not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term."

- The Chief

Grimoire posted:

robot programer, we're safe till strong AI hits (hint: ain't happening for a loving while)

edit: software engineering expands year on year, but good lord there is a lot of work to be done. 70s - 90s crapware business code written in proprietary COBOL or FORTRAN or maybe incomprehensible and arcane enterprise Java runs the world, is fragile as gently caress, but MUST be kept running if you wanna use ATMs or book a flight or whatever.

You are an Automator. Your field is safe until strong AI comes out, as you said.

Whiskerando
Mar 13, 2011

My guess is that the job of a programmer will be wildly different in 20 years than it is now. All we need is one breakthrough that allows you to tell the computer "what" you want from it rather than "how" to get what you want from it. If we got even partway there you could lose a ton of jobs writing simple web apps.

Legacy code will definitely keep jobs open for a while, though. One of my friends worked for two years maintaining a codebase from 1979.

Baloogan
Dec 5, 2004
Fun Shoe

Azuth0667 posted:

Anything requiring creativity because we can't even agree on what it is ourselves so how will we make a computer to do it?

have you ever heard a computer playing an music track?

that was automated long long ago, time was you had to have real live musicians to hear music

Wheeee
Mar 11, 2001

When a tree grows, it is soft and pliable. But when it's dry and hard, it dies.

Hardness and strength are death's companions. Flexibility and softness are the embodiment of life.

That which has become hard shall not triumph.

Lindsey O. Graham posted:

So the thread's consensus appears to be all jobs can be automated and probably will be eventually

Yes.

But at grossly disproportionate rates; manufacturing labor will disappear before accountants, who will probably be gone before doctors, who in turn will probably be gone before lawyers, and so on. Nobody knows which professional and technical fields will begin dropping first but signs point to administrative and diagnostic roles being taken over by weak AI in the semi-near future, while tasks involving conceptual or abstract thinking are probably safe (For the good ones; there's going to be a much smaller number of lawyers needed in the very near future, even if we'll still need lawyers) until strong AI which is lol

JHVH-1
Jun 28, 2002
Automation engineer

Azuth0667
Sep 20, 2011

By the word of Zoroaster, no business decision is poor when it involves Ahura Mazda.

Baloogan posted:

have you ever heard a computer playing an music track?

that was automated long long ago, time was you had to have real live musicians to hear music

Have you ever seen a computer explore and discover a scientific law? Have you ever seen a computer get inspired by something it experienced and make a painting for other people to enjoy?

Going to guess the answer is nope.

Grimoire
Jul 9, 2003

Whiskerando posted:

My guess is that the job of a programmer will be wildly different in 20 years than it is now. All we need is one breakthrough that allows you to tell the computer "what" you want from it rather than "how" to get what you want from it. If we got even partway there you could lose a ton of jobs writing simple web apps.

Legacy code will definitely keep jobs open for a while, though. One of my friends worked for two years maintaining a codebase from 1979.

Bro, that's called declarative language paradigm, used by such modern languages as Lisp and SQL. It's been a thing since the early 80's, maybe before. Here, have a 1982 video lecture series from MIT: https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/electri...video-lectures/

Moral of the story: harder than you can imagine.

edit: AngularJS is basically exactly what you described. Web & mobile dev still going strong.

Grimoire has issued a correction as of 04:30 on Jan 21, 2017

Lindsey O. Graham
Dec 31, 2016

"We're not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term."

- The Chief

Wheeee posted:

Yes.

But at grossly disproportionate rates; manufacturing labor will disappear before accountants, who will probably be gone before doctors, who in turn will probably be gone before lawyers, and so on. Nobody knows which professional and technical fields will begin dropping first but signs point to administrative and diagnostic roles being taken over by weak AI in the semi-near future, while tasks involving conceptual or abstract thinking are probably safe (For the good ones; there's going to be a much smaller number of lawyers needed in the very near future, even if we'll still need lawyers) until strong AI which is lol

This is a great synopsis of what is likely to come!

JHVH-1 posted:

Automation engineer

Yes, quite true.

Azuth0667 posted:

Have you ever seen a computer explore and discover a scientific law? Have you ever seen a computer get inspired by something it experienced and make a painting for other people to enjoy?

Going to guess the answer is nope.

This is a lovely post.

Grimoire posted:

Bro, that's called declarative language paradigm, used by such modern languages as Lisp and SQL. It's been a thing since the early 80's, maybe before. Here, have a 1982 video lecture series from MIT: https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/electri...video-lectures/

Moral of the story: harder than you can imagine.

edit: AngularJS is basically exactly what you described. Web & mobile dev still going strong.

Very informative.

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

NEOLIBERAL SHITPOSTER

:siren:
VOTE BLUE NO MATTER WHO!!!
:siren:
jobs invulnerable to automation are the ones with the best lobbyists, see accountants

Centrist Dad
Nov 13, 2007

When I see your posting
College Slice
Psychiatrist, basically for an analogous reason that being a judge will never be automated: psychiatrists have to make complicated judgments about whether or not to hospitalize people for mental illness that cannot be quantified on any test other than human perception. This reason will be obsolete after there becomes a lab or imaging test to quantify the severity of mental illness.

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Lindsey O. Graham
Dec 31, 2016

"We're not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term."

- The Chief

LinYutang posted:

jobs invulnerable to automation are the ones with the best lobbyists, see accountants

Accountants have good lobbyists? Expand on that.

Oyak posted:

Psychiatrist, basically for an analogous reason that being a judge will never be automated: psychiatrists have to make complicated judgments about whether or not to hospitalize people for mental illness that cannot be quantified on any test other than human perception. This reason will be obsolete after there becomes a lab or imaging test to quantify the severity of mental illness.

I've long believed this, and there is a warm place in my heart for those that choose to treat mental illness.

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