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  • Locked thread
Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!



PREMIERES MARCH 8

Zesty Crab Legs posted:


What is Survivor?

Survivor is a reality show where a group of 18 to 20 or so contestants, from all walks of life, are stuck on a remote paradise and forced to live together for 39 days; gathering their own food, building their own shelter, and purifying their own water. The cast is split into opposing, equal teams, called tribes. The tribes must work together to form a community, in the hopes of one contestant becoming the Sole Survivor and winning one million dollars. At least one contestant is voted off every episode.

A typical Survivor season has three phases. Pre-Merge, Post-Merge, and Endgame.

  • Pre-Merge: Roughly the first half of the game. The tribes compete against each other twice each episode. First for a reward, and second for tribal immunity. Tribes that fail the immunity challenge will be forced to vote one of their own members out at the end of the episode.

  • Post-Merge: The tribes are merged together. Players are now playing for individual immunity and all players will participate in voting out a player from the tribe.

  • Endgame: Once 5-7 players or so remain, the show reaches the End game phase. Usually the very strong core alliances are shaken up here as people try to reach the end or placate the jury. The last nine players voted out before the final tribal council will join a Jury that will decide who will win of the final three (sometimes two) players.


Supplemental Material

  • Rob Has A Podcast: Available on iTunes or their website. Former Castaway Rob Cesternino does a few podcasts a week discussing the latest episodes events, interviewing the latest player voted out, and provides theories about strategy. He frequently brings former castaways on as guests. This podcast provides worthwhile insight and background information that you won't get from the show.

  • Twitter: List of Cast. Survivors poo poo on each other, shill for their crap, and every once in awhile tweet something that's actually amusing. Currently missing Michaela, Ciandre, Paul, and Taylor

  • YouTube: The Official YouTube Channel updates at the end of each episode with bonus confessionals, behind the scenes, and Ponderosa videos.


Glossary of Terms

  • Blindside: When a tribal council seems to be set up so one or one of two possible players are getting eliminated, but somehow either a secret coalition or a surprising idol play makes it so someone else is voted out instead.

  • "The Edit": Survivor is a show to entertain. It is produced and edited in a way to give players a streamlined personality and to create as much tension before Tribal Council as possible.

  • Goat: A useless, awful, or crazy person that is not being voted out of the game specifically so a player can look like a more desirable final survivor to the jury compared to the goat.

  • HII: Hidden Immunity Idol. They are hidden around the island. Clues will be given that could reveal their location. One-use item that a player can use after the votes are cast (but before they are read) at Tribal Council to nullify votes against that person. They can't be used at Final Four player or later.

  • Mactor: Portmanteau of "Model/Actor". A player who doesn't know the game very well and are just using it to further their career.

  • Pagonged: Going into post-merge, it's the act of voting out the former members of your opposing tribe before voting out the former members of your original tribe. It's the reason it's important to win tribal immunity pre-merge so that you outnumber the opposing tribe members in post-merge.

  • Pony/Poison: After the new season's cast is announced, thread members will pick a "Pony" (someone they think is awesome and will win) and a "Poison" (someone they think will suck and/or be an annoying rear end in a top hat they hope will lose or just simply suffer)

  • Purple Rocks: In the event of a tie at Tribal Council, there is a revote, with only the people receiving the most votes being eligible to receive votes during that revote. If the revote also ends in a tie, Survivors draw rocks. Whichever player draws the differently colored rock is eliminated from the game.

  • Splitting the vote/Flushing the Idol: An alliance that splits its votes between two members to counter a potential idol play. If one of those two players plays a Hidden Immunity Idol, there will still be enough players voting for the other guy to vote them out. This strategy can be risky.


Too much money? Smilies.


  • :probst:





CBS Cast bios.

The real poo poo:

GLOSS OVER AND/OR SKIM THIS IF YOU WANT TO AVOID SPOILERS FROM PAST SEASONS


Caleb Reynolds (Kaoh Rong)



YOU MIGHT REMEMBER HIM BECAUSE: He was the creepy guy who creeped on Amber and went by the moniker, “Beast Mode Cowboy.” However creepy his creeping, he was loyal to his allies and took fourth place.

But enough about Big Brother; his Survivor game was shockingly tolerable (and arguably actually good), and he ended it by just about dying in a challenge in which he pushed his very life to the edge for a reward of salt and pepper.

WORTH IT?: Probably not!

GAME CHANGER?!: Well, he changed from Big Brother to Survivor, so, sure.

DAY ONE STOCK TRADE: Tentative buy.


Jeff Varner (Australian Outback, Cambodia)



YOU MIGHT REMEMBER HIM BECAUSE: He’s a bit of flash with a hint of sass and a dash of fabulous. He was featured prominently in the Outback, which remains Survivor’s most-watched season to date.

GAME CHANGER?!: Passively. In Survivor’s infancy, voting ties were resolved by booting the person with the highest total of votes against them from previous tribal councils. If you think that’s overly complicated, you’re not alone; they changed that rule almost immediately. Kimmi Kappenberg spilled the beans about Varner’s history, and away he went at the first vote after the merge.

As for actually playing the game? Eh.

DAY ONE STOCK TRADE: Sell.


Malcolm Freberg (Philippines, Caramoan)



YOU MIGHT REMEMBER HIM BECAUSE: He’s got some charisma and acted nearly competent in his first outing until his strongest ally booted him at the last second. He refused to promise her his loyalty going into finals, and also cornered himself into a last minute final three deal with not-his-ride-or-die. It was very stupid of him.

In Caramoan, he consciously aimed himself into a minority alliance with the unquestionably brilliant and not-at-all obnoxious Corinne Kaplan, and later blew two hidden idols in one go to take out all-time Survivor mastermind Phillip loving Sheppard.

GAME CHANGER?!: Not really. Parvati pioneered the double-idol play (and hers actually worked), and Randy Bailey pioneered the ability to find Corinne tolerable.

DAY ONE STOCK TRADE: Sell. Oh god, sell. Please just get it away from me. It’s so bad.


Tony Vlachos (Cagayan)



YOU MIGHT REMEMBER HIM BECAUSE: He built spy shacks, has a funny accent, found three idols (including the TYLER PERRY idol), and speaks fluent llama.

Also, he won harder than almost anybody has ever won.

GAME CHANGER?!: Yes! I still have no idea how he pulled off even half of the poo poo he got away with. Take a gander at that final tribal council . The jury hated him, and all but one of them voted for him to win anyway.

Also, #SpyShack

(For those who haven’t seen Cagayan, Tony got straight to work at camp when they hit the beach. He made it appear as though he was weatherproofing the shelter and the like, when he was actually building little hideouts scattered across the camp from which he could eavesdrop.)

DAY ONE STOCK TRADE: Buy, for now. The other veterans will be very wary of him, but he’ll probably stick around through the early game for his strength in challenges. Guy’s got his work cut out for him.


Troyzan Robertson (One World)


(Aw, now I miss Jonas. Troyzan’s on the left, there.)

YOU MIGHT REMEMBER HIM BECAUSE: He’s a goofball. He once conducted a video AMA on Reddit wearing only a towel. He was one of the only vaguely-pleasant things to pay attention to on his season, which I cannot recommend that anybody watch.

He tried, man. He really did. He was up against Kim Spradlin, so it’s hard to get a strong read on how good a player he actually is. He certainly seemed competent, though he made the critical mistake of trusting Kim and voting out one of his only real allies right after the merge.

GAME CHANGER?!: No. He wasn’t even the T-zan who threw his dirty tightie-whities into the tribe’s boiling water pot.

DAY ONE STOCK TRADE: Hold. He’s a huge fan of the game and he’s been anxious to play again for a while. He might actually do something.


Aubry Bracco (Kaoh Rong)


(Oh gently caress yeah Purple Parrots ALL DAY)

YOU MIGHT REMEMBER HER BECAUSE: She cried her eyes out and missed her mommy on, like, day 2. She played a competent strategic game and had incredibly loyal allies, but she was wishy-washy and a not the best social player.

I mean, come on. She lost to Michele.

She did make it through almost the entire game with at least one, sometimes two, unflinching ally votes in her back pocket, which isn't to be sneezed at. I have a hard time finding much to say about Aubry. She's smart, but she has a bad habit of giving non-answers to people trying to win her over. Is saying a convincing yes to people really so difficult?

GAME CHANGER?!: Sure!



DAY ONE STOCK TRADE: Sell. Her mistakes were more results of her personality than strategic errors (as in, they’re not really things I think she can learn from).


Ciera Eastin (Blood vs. Water, Cambodia)



YOU MIGHT REMEMBER HER BECAUSE: She went along with a vote VOTED HER MOM OUT, and read the writing on the wall after it was too late FORCED A ROCK DRAW. She then played in Second Chances where she prattled along in a minority alliance MADE BIG MOVES.

GAME CHANGER?!: Oh gently caress off.

DAY ONE STOCK TRADE: Sell.



Hali Ford (Worlds Apart)



YOU MIGHT REMEMBER HER BECAUSE: You probably don’t.

GAME CHANGER?!:



No.

DAY ONE STOCK TRADE: Hold. Remember that time they cast Amber Brkich on All Stars, or that other time they cast loving Parvati on Micronesia?

Yeah. Hold.



Michaela Bradshaw (Millennials vs. Gen-X)



YOU MIGHT REMEMBER HER BECAUSE: She was hilarious, let her ta-tas fly loose during a challenge, gave Probst some lip, and had good strategic wits about her. She also disliked Figgy more quickly than anybody, and we loved her for it.

GAME CHANGER?!: Ehhhhhh …nah. But you gotta appreciate her style.

DAY ONE STOCK TRADE: Buy.



Sandra Diaz-Twine (Pearl Islands, Heroes vs. Villains)



YOU MIGHT REMEMBER HER BECAUSE: She won twice and this thread inevitably devolves into a slap fight between Sandra fans and Russell fans when we get bored (two or three times per season, on average). Yeah, we’re going to have a lot of fun with this one.

That’s stupid, though. You should remember her because she used her Spanish to snag her tribe some sweet deals on day 1 of Survivor: PIRATES. She consistently used foul language in confessionals, promised Johnny Fairplay to “screw [him], AND Burton,” told RUSSELL HANTZ, the guy who eliminates threats as soon as he knows they’re there, that she was against him, and burned his stupid hat in the day 39 bonfire simply because she hated him so much.

GAME CHANGER?!: More so than most of these other clowns.

DAY ONE STOCK TRADE: Buy.


NUKU


Andrea Boehlke (Redemption Island, Caramoan)



YOU MIGHT REMEMBER HER BECAUSE: She was the only Omatepe to take any shots against Boston Rob in Survivor: Coronation Island, arguably making her the best player that season because you can’t seriously tell me that you should hold her to the same standard as a four-time vet. That said, this will be her third, so it’ll be interesting to see how she’s kept up with his trajectory.

She performed very admirably in Caramoan. She kept her finger on the pulse and very wisely allowed Phillip Sheppard to be Phillip Sheppard. She was one of those mid-merge boots who got the axe for being too threatening.

GAME CHANGER?!: I don’t think so, but she’s not bad.

DAY ONE STOCK TRADE: Buy.



Cirie Fields (Panama, Micronesia, Heroes vs. Villains)



YOU MIGHT REMEMBER HER BECAUSE: She went from being afraid of leaves and nearly voted out first to engineering one of the most incredible and satisfying vote splits the game has ever seen. She’s one of the strongest social players ever, and she lost her first two games at the last possible moments, breaking hearts wherever hearts can be found.

Want to talk social game? She convinced ice-cream-scooper-turned-comic-artist Erik to give. up individual immunity at final 5. She somehow convinced him that he needed to give it away to prove himself trustworthy. I mean, the gently caress? It doesn’t even make sense. But she sold it (RIP Erik).

She also broke hearts when she flipped out on perennial goon favorite Yau-Man and booted him super-early in Micronesia. I’m still upset about that. But this is her flaw: once she gets it in her head that she needs somebody gone, she’ll stop at nothing to get that person gone. She can be inflexible.

Finally, she went down in Heroes vs. Villains, and early. She went down properly, and she went down hard. She was caught over-scheming and over-plotting (see JT below).

GAME CHANGER?!: Yes. That vote split, man.

DAY ONE STOCK TRADE: Tentative buy (see JT below).



Debbie Wanner (Kaoh Rong)



YOU MIGHT REMEMBER HER BECAUSE: Because , that’s why. She’s casting gold. She’s a Coach for a new generation! Production isn’t really sure what to cite for her job title, so they use just about every one she mentions. There’s also this poo poo.

GAME CHANGER?!: Nope!

DAY ONE STOCK TRADE: Sell!!!1one



Sarah Lacina (Cagayan)



YOU MIGHT REMEMBER HER BECAUSE: She was The Other Cop with a Funny Accent on Cagayan, but she didn’t speak llama so she’s not really that memorable. She started out strong, but she got cocky in her apparent sing-vote position at the merge, causing Kass to flip and get her gone (cf. Christie in Amazon).

To be fair, she’s very, very good at reading people. If I’m not mistaken, her actual cop job involves interrogation.

GAME CHANGER?!: Do you think Cops ‘R’ Us is game-changing?

DAY ONE STOCK TRADE: …hold. Unlike Aubry, Sarah’s mistakes are fixable. She really needs to check her ego at the door if she wants to do well.



Sierra Dawn Thomas (Worlds Apart)



YOU MIGHT REMEMBER HER BECAUSE: She was the hot girl on Worlds Apart. No, the blonde one. No, not the one who got her clit stung by a bee during a challenge. The other one! gently caress, no, the TALL one!

Yeah! Her!

GAME CHANGER?!: …are you even reading this?

DAY ONE STOCK TRADE: Hold. I’m down with holding with the people who were invisible in their original seasons.



Brad Culpepper (Blood vs. Water)



YOU MIGHT REMEMBER HIM BECAUSE: gently caress you, Brad Culpepper!

Also, he’s classic pro athlete casting.

Also also, he’s a douche. He makes Jeff Kent look like a charitable human being.

WOW, EVEN WORSE THAN JOHN ROCKER?: Okay, he’s not that bad.

GAME CHANGER?!: Pfft.

DAY ONE STOCK TRADE: Sell.



JT Thomas (Tocantins, Heroes vs. Villains)



YOU MIGHT REMEMBER HIM BECAUSE: He’s a winner, and a solid one. His strength and charm matched well with Stephen’s brains and strategic prowess in Tocantins, leading us to wonder if either of them was any good at this on their own.

JT kind of seemed to answer that question with that fun little ditty up there on Heroes and Villains. Holy gently caress, that happened. That actually happened. And managing to pass the thing off AT THE CHALLENGE was as masterful and adept as it was incredibly loving retarded.

It’s not that simple, though. He’s also the guy who got Cirie out with some spying, social maneuvering, and a correct hidden immunity idol play. Having the two of them back on the same tribe could be interesting.

GAME CHANGER?!: Oh my god, yes. That letter. THAT LETTER.

DAY ONE STOCK TRADE: Tentative buy. Boys can learn.



Ozzy Lusth (Cook Islands, Micronesia, South Pacific)


(with bonus Coach. I need a reason to smile over here.)

YOU MIGHT REMEMBER HIM BECAUSE: He hosed both girls! “Having sex with Oscar was like having sex on top of the world.”

…well, I remember him from having sex on the Playboy Channel, but whatever.

Ozzy is arguably the most dominant physical player/immunity threat ever to play Survivor. He helped his forlorn Aitu tribe stay safe after Candice “gently caress you, Brad Culpepper!” Woodcock chose to mutiny before the merge. He continued to dominate challenges in the individual stage, and lost to Yul by a single vote, which is remarkable; Yul is generally considered to be a very strong winner.

Then Ozzy came back for Micronesia, immediately started banging Amanda Kimmel, turned out to be a cocky rear end in a top hat, and got blindsided with an idol in his pocket in my favorite episode of this entire show. And THEN he came back for South Pacific, tried to bang Elise, and went on with being arrogant. To be fair, his entire tribe was unlikeable, but good god. That was painful.

GAME CHANGER?!: Yes, unfortunately. In South Pacific, he pioneered the brilliant, foolproof strategy of having himself voted out so that he could go to Redemption Island and win Redemption Island and come back to the actual game later. Not only was it the dumbest idea ever, it almost worked. He won Redemption Island, came back to the game for the merge, got voted out again, won Redemption Island again and was one immunity challenge away from going to finals and having his douchey pre-merge tribe award him the million dollars for being an insufferable moron until he finally got voted out for realsies.

DAY ONE STOCK TRADE: Hold. Ugh.



Tai Trang (Kaoh Rong)



YOU MIGHT REMEMBER HIM BECAUSE: Sia gave him a fat wad of cash at the reunion show for befriending a chicken.



To be fair, TaixMark The Chicken was the thing to ship. They were completely adorable. Other notable romances for this hilarious shortstack included the hilariously tall Scot Pollard, and also Caleb Reynolds of the Mana tribe.

Tai, who is deeply appreciative of trees, destroyed one of them in search of a hidden immunity idol. He did eventually MacGyver his way to finding that idol, though. Speaking of idols, I’m a superfan, and I’m still a bit hazy on how they found the idols in Kaoh Rong. It was a multi-step process that involved a chest with a special key and a lockbox dozens of feet in the air. The hell?

Finally, he betrayed his boyfriend Scot, who expected to be able to use Tai’s idol portion to save himself after the votes were read. Denied. Devastating.

(Each idol had to be combined with another idol to form a super-idol, which- Jesus, gently caress the Kaoh Rong idols.)

GAME CHANGER?!: Mark The Chicken got a heartfelt send-off at final tribal council and earned Tai the most bullshit cash prize since Rupert won America’s Vote. That’s game-changing, I suppose.

DAY ONE STOCK TRADE: Sell. Sorry, Tai.



Zeke Smith (Millennials vs. Gen-X)



YOU MIGHT REMEMBER HIM BECAUSE: He was just on this show, and he was great! He wheeled and dealed and gamed his face off in one of the most strategically exciting post-merge seasons I can think of. He paid the ultimate price for playing hard, but it was fabulous fun and I think just about everybody in here is stoked to see him come back.

TELL ME SOMETHING I DON’T ALREADY KNOW, YOU DUMB IDIOT: It’s worth mentioning that he knows Andrea from a Saturday of Survivor: Brooklyn, available on YouTube, so he’s also going into this with a pre-fab connection to one of his stronger tribemates.

GAME CHANGER?!: Maybe. Maybe? I can’t really pinpoint anything he did that was very revolutionary, which kind of stinks, but he played harder and smarter than most of this cast.

DAY ONE STOCK TRADE: Buy buy buy buy squeeeeeee

Propaganda Machine fucked around with this message at Feb 23, 2017 around 21:11

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SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

A Little Known FACT: Burger King's Bacon King is superior to the Baconator.


They probably should have went with an Old Vs. New school survivor theme instead of using the stupid game changers thing.

GuavaMoment
Aug 13, 2006

YouTube dude


I swear to loving God if they don't boot Sandra IMMEDIATELY...

Propaganda Machine posted:

Ozzy Lusth (Cook Islands, Micronesia, South Pacific)

YOU MIGHT REMEMBER HIM BECAUSE: He hosed both girls! “Having sex with Oscar was like having sex on top of the world.”

This was mentioned back during Redemption Island and is way, way more hilarious than you could possibly imagine. If your sensibilities aren't delicate, find that show and watch it.

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

This is gonna be fun!
Or else!


sandra 4 lyfe

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

GuavaMoment posted:

I swear to loving God if they don't boot Sandra IMMEDIATELY...


This was mentioned back during Redemption Island and is way, way more hilarious than you could possibly imagine. If your sensibilities aren't delicate, find that show and watch it.

I don't know, I'm probably booting Aubry before her.

For real, Sandra is a solid winner pick with this crowd.

curiousCat
Sep 23, 2012

They're called enhancements.


Malcolm and Aubry both said if they're on the jury, and Sandra's in the finals, she's got their votes.

Let this happen.

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

A Little Known FACT: Burger King's Bacon King is superior to the Baconator.


GuavaMoment posted:

I swear to loving God if they don't boot Sandra IMMEDIATELY...

It's cool, she won't win the jury, lets keep her around for a bit.... Sandra Threepete.

Piell
Sep 3, 2006



Young Orc


The Once, Twice, and Future Queen

Piell fucked around with this message at Feb 24, 2017 around 07:31

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

Here's the best I got of Ozzy getting his dick wet from a quick youtube search:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05YQVpmXrIo

The next video on the playlist is a full minute of him and Amanda making out

Adus
Nov 4, 2009

Ken, I grew up in Dublin. I love Dublin. If I grew up on a farm, and was retarded, Bruges might impress me but I didn't, so it doesn't.


Propaganda Machine posted:

JT kind of seemed to answer that question with that fun little ditty up there on Heroes and Villains. Holy gently caress, that happened. That actually happened. And managing to pass the thing off AT THE CHALLENGE was as masterful and adept as it was incredibly loving retarded.

if JT's read on the situation was right it probably would have been hailed as the most brilliant play in the game's history. now, i admit some common sense needs to come into play here and realize the risk of giving an idol to the other tribe (specifically one named the villains) is too high, but i appreciate the effort.

not sure who i'm rooting for here, really.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Pony: Troyzan for being the only remotely insightful rival to get anywhere in One World.
Poison: Ozzy for not being completely replaced by Malcolm.

Dugong
Mar 18, 2013

I don't know what to do,
I'm going to lose my mind


This season can only hope to be as good as the OP.

Pony: Sandra

Poison: Sierra/ Ciera

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012



Tortured By Flan

Pony: Tony
Poison: Cirie

But it was a toss up between Cirie and Ozzy. Seriously. 3 times is enough on Survivor.

Piell
Sep 3, 2006



Young Orc

Pony: Sandra
Poison: Debbie

Debbie is the worst, she is an even less funny Coach

Piell fucked around with this message at Feb 24, 2017 around 08:28

DurosKlav
Jun 13, 2003

Enter your name pilot!

Piell posted:

Pony: Sandra
Poison: Debbie

Debbie is the worst, she is an even less funny Coach

100% this.

I wish Sandra didnt come back though. She's going to ruin her perfect record. Pretty much no matter how she plays though, if she makes it to final tribal she deserves to win.

DurosKlav fucked around with this message at Feb 24, 2017 around 11:52

pokeyman
Nov 26, 2006

That elephant ate my entire platoon.

Pillbug

That is an excellent OP!

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

This is gonna be fun!
Or else!


curiousCat posted:

Malcolm and Aubry both said if they're on the jury, and Sandra's in the finals, she's got their votes.

Let this happen.

I actually hate this a lot. Let this game dictate itself.

Looten Plunder
Jul 11, 2006


Grimey Drawer

Propaganda Machine posted:

Malcolm Freberg (Philippines, Caramoan)

DAY ONE STOCK TRADE: Sell. Oh god, sell. Please just get it away from me. It’s so bad.


Wow, you are so much lower on Malcolm than me. He's in the perfect spot this season.

He played a pretty drat good game in both seasons, has a super strong social game, is decent in challenges, is a few years older and wiser, can hide behind the bigger alpha athletes and the bigger overall threats like JT.

Your comments on Caramoan are a little simplified. He got screwed over by Corinne and didn't consciously aim himself in to the minority, he was making a power play and thought he had the numbers. His double idol play can't be criticised too much, it made a lot of sense at the time.

thexerox123
Aug 17, 2007



Poque posted:

I actually hate this a lot. Let this game dictate itself.

You'd rather they pretend they're not aware that there's a two-time winner in their midst? Get real.

It's still letting the game dictate itself, because any route that a two-time winner takes to the end would be well-earned.

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

This is gonna be fun!
Or else!


thexerox123 posted:

You'd rather they pretend they're not aware that there's a two-time winner in their midst? Get real.

It's still letting the game dictate itself, because any route that a two-time winner takes to the end would be well-earned.

I'm not going to say that I'm being realistic at all, people are well aware of the histories of pretty much everybody else in the game (not sure if this was filmed before Zeke/Michaela's season had aired but I think it had) and it will shape the game regardless of pre-game alliances or anything like that. But arbitrarily saying that you would vote in one way if one thing happens before any events of the game have actually happened is an absolute I can't really get behind.

Granted those interviews probably occurred after the game had actually happened, but if it was the sentiment they went in with, that's lovely.

Dugong
Mar 18, 2013

I don't know what to do,
I'm going to lose my mind


All I'm hoping for is that the interesting characters don't get booted first.

sportsgenius86
Jun 17, 2008

THE STREAK IS OVER


Pony: Zeke
Poison: Cirie

Zeke seems like the type of person who would be aware of his mistakes and correct them. He's capable enough as a challenge guy to last the early rounds but not good enough to be a threat. And nobody really knows much about him.

Cirie is a massive social threat of which everyone is fully aware and I can't imagine that age is helping her out any when it comes to tribe challenges. Whatever team she's on, I think she's first out as soon as they go to tribal. It makes too much sense.

If I was going to pick a second pony, it would be Caleb. He would have a huge target in any first run season because he's in great shape, but he'll be behind Malcolm and Ozzy in terms of challenge threats.

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

Looten Plunder posted:

Wow, you are so much lower on Malcolm than me. He's in the perfect spot this season.

He played a pretty drat good game in both seasons, has a super strong social game, is decent in challenges, is a few years older and wiser, can hide behind the bigger alpha athletes and the bigger overall threats like JT.

Your comments on Caramoan are a little simplified. He got screwed over by Corinne and didn't consciously aim himself in to the minority, he was making a power play and thought he had the numbers. His double idol play can't be criticised too much, it made a lot of sense at the time.

I really liked Malcolm on Philippines, even if I'm being a bit snarky up there. I just facepalmed at him pretty consistently in Caramoan, but to be fair (to him) I just really didn't like much that season. I haven't seen or thought much of it since it aired, so you may well be right.

If he really brings his game he could do well, but he has stiff competition and can't afford to get cocky. If he's grown up a bit, then sure.

Orange Sunshine
May 10, 2011

by FactsAreUseless


sportsgenius86 posted:

Cirie is a massive social threat of which everyone is fully aware and I can't imagine that age is helping her out any when it comes to tribe challenges. Whatever team she's on, I think she's first out as soon as they go to tribal. It makes too much sense.


Cirie was fat and unathletic when she was first on 10 years ago. She will be even worse at challenges now. Her big challenge is always not getting voted out immediately. She will immediately scramble and try to get into an alliance with whoever doesn't want to vote out the unathletic people.

thexerox123
Aug 17, 2007



Orange Sunshine posted:

Cirie was fat and unathletic when she was first on 10 years ago. She will be even worse at challenges now.

Not sure how Cirie of 10 years ago factors into anything, since by all accounts she's currently pretty svelte.

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.


Pony: Sierra
Poison: Tony

I think Sierra is going to fit the Amber / Parvati mold of being kind of forgettable the first time around and then coming back and winning.

thexerox123 posted:

You'd rather they pretend they're not aware that there's a two-time winner in their midst? Get real.

It's still letting the game dictate itself, because any route that a two-time winner takes to the end would be well-earned.

Yeah, even if Sandra makes it out of the pre-merge game I feel like it's going to be really hard for her to convince anyone to go up against her in an FTC.

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

thexerox123 posted:

Not sure how Cirie of 10 years ago factors into anything, since by all accounts she's currently pretty svelte.

I wouldn't go that far, but she loses weight every time and seems to keep it off successfully. She gets smaller every time she plays.

That said, I would absolutely not get immediately. She's not a challenge asset for early game, at all.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.


Looten Plunder posted:

Wow, you are so much lower on Malcolm than me. He's in the perfect spot this season.

He played a pretty drat good game in both seasons, has a super strong social game, is decent in challenges, is a few years older and wiser, can hide behind the bigger alpha athletes and the bigger overall threats like JT.

Your comments on Caramoan are a little simplified. He got screwed over by Corinne and didn't consciously aim himself in to the minority, he was making a power play and thought he had the numbers. His double idol play can't be criticised too much, it made a lot of sense at the time.

Yeah, this feels like the same problem I had with Caramoan when it aired and why I was in constant fights with folks. Malcolm was "stupid" for trying to get out from under the bottom of his alliance while Andrea was "smart" for laying back and getting picked off? I just see it the opposite. It didn't work for Malcolm, and a lot of that can fall on Corinne being an idiot. But I don't think he was wrong to not be content to just "let Phillip Sheppard be Phillip Sheppard" and wait for his alliance to get around to cutting him sooner rather than later. The basic inevitable story of that season and why I hated it so much. Malcolm was the only one trying to change that.

That being said he's always seemed to lack that last bit of good strategic judgment necessary to win and I think he'll never not be a big target and with all of the other "alpha males" being older he won't be able to hide.

I also feel a slight disagreement with the OP about Zeke. I'm kind of cold on his return. I mean, I'm happy to see him come back and see if he can play well and shake off that arrogance he got towards the end of his season. But I worry that he showed his whole game and hasn't had enough time to reflect on it or shake it. I feel like he'll be the guy who comes in and says "I overplayed last season so I need to relax this season" and then immediately over play himself out pre-merge.

Great OP, slight subjective disagreements aside.

Murmur Twin posted:

Yeah, even if Sandra makes it out of the pre-merge game I feel like it's going to be really hard for her to convince anyone to go up against her in an FTC.

Yeah, I think Sandra can survive the early stage on a combination of social game and not being a physical threat. Its going to be that end game when people are thinking about FTC matchups which she'll have to pull off a miracle to survive.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at Feb 25, 2017 around 01:19

Adus
Nov 4, 2009

Ken, I grew up in Dublin. I love Dublin. If I grew up on a farm, and was retarded, Bruges might impress me but I didn't, so it doesn't.


STAC Goat posted:


Yeah, I think Sandra can survive the early stage on a combination of social game and not being a physical threat.

'not being a physical threat' is not how you survive the early stage, generally.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.


Well I guess I was being too brief.

I think she can survive the initial "she's a winner, get her out!" reaction because she's a savvy enough social player to make friends and allies and a weak enough physical player that people she can't win over can be convinced to wait on her because they can get her later.

Then when the merge comes the focus tends to move towards individual threats and again, she can probably skirt by over bigger physical immunity threats if she makes the right moves.

But then when its down to like Final 8-5 that's when I don't know how she can survive since FTC matchups are so close and obvious at that stage.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008


STAC Goat posted:

Yeah, this feels like the same problem I had with Caramoan when it aired and why I was in constant fights with folks. Malcolm was "stupid" for trying to get out from under the bottom of his alliance while Andrea was "smart" for laying back and getting picked off? I just see it the opposite. It didn't work for Malcolm, and a lot of that can fall on Corinne being an idiot. But I don't think he was wrong to not be content to just "let Phillip Sheppard be Phillip Sheppard" and wait for his alliance to get around to cutting him sooner rather than later. The basic inevitable story of that season and why I hated it so much. Malcolm was the only one trying to change that.

It's not at all clear to me that Malcolm was on the "bottom" of the Favorites alliance at the merge, and I certainly don't see how you could think Andrea was at the bottom and just waiting to be picked off. The 8 Favorites left at the merge was a weirdly structured way-too-big alliance with 4 leaders (Phillip, Andrea, Dawn, and Cochran) who would have (and did!) turn on each other at some point. I can't blame Malcolm and Corrine too much for flipping, but in hindsight it might have been wise to let that giant alliance turn on itself, and try to survive the wreckage. It's very easy to envision a road map where Andrea tries to scoop up the 4 "pawns" in Erik, Brenda, Malcolm, and Corrine to take out Cochran, Dawn, and Phillip, and then Corinne and Malcolm knock Andrea out before the finals.

Super big alliances with multiple leaders are the perfect alliances to ride for a little and turn on later, kind of like what Sherri tried to do that season, but she left out the important last step of knocking out Dawn and Cochran before the finals.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.


But the problem with a super big alliance is it only benefits you if you're on the inner circle that's riding it out. That was Andrea's mistake. She assumed she was one of the favored parties because she talked game with Cochran and Dawn and Phillip, but when Cochran made his move to turn them on her she had no one to turn to.

Malcolm at the very least recognized that he had no real inner circle of the big alliance he could count on so he tried to create one. The problem was he trusted Corinne and rather than waiting for the moment to strike like he wanted she jumped the gun and tipped off the "inner circle" to the coming coup. It didn't work, but I respect what Malcolm was doing and understand his logic. Maybe if he had done nothing things would have worked out better, but I'm not sure I think "hope for the best" is ever really a sound strategy, especially if you're a player like Malcolm likely to be targeted sooner or later.

That was my entire problem with Caramoan and Spies-R-Us. It was 12 people who felt safe riding the big alliance because the leader was an obvious goat and they all seemed content that they'd be on the right side of the numbers when they widdled down. But Malcolm and Cochran seemed to be the only two actively doing anything to try and make that work.

I mean, Andrea reached out to Eddie but that seemed more personal than strategic and it ultimately hurt her.

I also admit I don't have a GREAT memory of this season so I could be off about stuff or missing something Andrea did. But I compare it in my head to One World's cast that just "went along to get along" but with no Kim to marvel at.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at Feb 25, 2017 around 02:15

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

At this point I feel like I should probably step out from the Malcolm debate, but I think my problem with him started when he zeroed in on that alliance with Corinne. From what I recall (which may be incomplete or just wrong), he kind of put himself in that minority position with her, just because he was so determined to work with her. The larger alliance was happy enough to accept him along for the ride, but he isolated himself there.

As was said above, the lion's share of the blame for this one goes to Corinne, but I put it on Malcolm's shoulders to have put her on such a high pedestal. It's not like she did anything so great in Gabon to have warranted being the apple of his eye.

Andrea "letting Phillip be Phillip" was a conscious choice and absolutely necessary for her game. He made it very clear in the first episode that you don't want to cross him or give him any attitude. He really took the BR rules to the next level.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.


My memory is that Malcolm simply identified Corinne as the other obvious member of the Vets tribe who was outside Phillip's inner circle. He knew/thought he couldn't turn Andrea, Cochran, or Brenda so he went for Corinne and the newbies with the idea that Dawn and Erik could be roped in once the numbers were safe. Corinne jumped the gun and told Dawn which tipped off the inner circle to move against Malcolm/Corinne while they still had the numbers.

I think. Like I said, I could be off. So I don't remember him thinking Corinne was his ideal strategic partner, just the person in the right position to get on his side (and maybe a great goat).

I feel like I specifically remember Phillip not liking Malcolm and keeping him on the outside of his inner circle. But even if that's not the case Malcolm's biggest mistake there is simply misreading what the crazy person everyone was content to let run the show thought of him as an ally or threat.

I don't have a problem with Andrea's first move being "Let Phillip be Phillip." Obviously that was Cochran's first move too. My problem with Andrea is I have no idea what her second move was supposed to be. If it was to trust Cochran and Dawn not to turn on her and to take her to the end then she hosed up there. If it was to build a side group that could pull off a coup then it didn't make TV. Andrea seemed to just be waiting, and I have no idea for what.

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

You know things are bad when you kind of want to rewatch Caramoan in order to win an argument on the internet, but here we are I suppose~

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.


Yeah, I'm not 100% confident of what I'm saying but I'll be damned if I slog through that again to see if I missed some subtle part of Andrea's game or Malcolm's motivations for working with Corinne.

The Lord Bude
May 23, 2007

I'M DISAPPOINTED THAT CORTANA WILL BE A CIRCLE AND NOT THE ACTUAL SEXY WOMAN FROM THE GAME.


Caramoan is the best season ever, I rewatched it just recently.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010



Infinitum Fanclub President


Pony: Michaela
Poison: Ozzy

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

The Lord Bude posted:

Caramoan is the best season ever, I rewatched it just recently.

Go away.

...

In all seriousness, just, no.

Here's what I remember from the "fans":

Whatsherface got Shamar to chill the gently caress out and made it to FTC, and lost horribly.

Julia the race car driver actually SHOULD come back, but, per Cochran:

"I wouldn't call Julia vanilla. People line up in the summertime for vanilla. She's much more boring than that."

(I liked Cochran a whole lot, until just about then.)

And... that's... it?

It was a horrible season. No shade on the fans, all of the shade on production. It was smack in the middle of the dark age.

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Rarity
Oct 21, 2010



Infinitum Fanclub President


Reynaldo was really good at throwing things. Like, really good.

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