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Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

divabot posted:

You can be absolutely assured that your tokens on the Ethereum blockchain are completely safe investments! Meanwhile, this Bloomberg piece on the DAO hack is pretty good, particularly if you use Firefox "reader" mode.

Hi you never responded to my repeated questions, I'd hate to think you are simply going to ignore them, after repeatedly asking me about my holdings until you got a response? There's no way that you'd just straight up ignore my questions after getting yours answered, right?

Why did you start pushing this double standard where any SA poster regardless of position is free to mock and critique bitcoins but needs to have holdings before they can point out how wrong and idiotic goons are? Since you started it, I'd like you to explain it.

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Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

divabot posted:

Because the normal default position in terms of financial advice is that joining into a bubble is a bad idea, and particularly a bubble in a field with so many extensively-documented opportunities for wipeout disaster like this one, as has been repeatedly pointed out to you personally. So the burden of proof is on the person advocating that ordinary people join in. That'd be you.

The financial advice that has been proven wrong over time given the valuation of the currency has empirically cost people money and led to distorted perceptions. This is something you seem well aware of as no matter what's going on, you only post the negative stories and never anything to do with people making gains, the currency being accepted, or more widely traded.

So the implicit premise you are advocating is:
You already know Bitcoins are a scam, because you can see the future
You already know the exchanges are a scam, because you can see the future
You can sit there and cherry pick every story that backs up your belief
Despite the fact that people are making money trading and can cash out bitcoins, any claims of that nature have to be backed up with one's trading position
Despite the fact that the above negative links are false, you can simply post them without any vetting - just repeat claims from years ago and you're good to go

And anyone who wants to point out how ridiculous this echo chamber is needs to prove that they have made money in Bitcoins. Well jeeze. With a setup like this how can you ever be wrong or be forced to admit that you have harmed and misled people for years in the sake of what... furthering a narrative you know (or at least suspect) to be untrue?

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

So if you ever wanted to ask someone point blank "How can you defend this double standard" they will respond "Because I know I'm right and you need to prove your bullshit opinion"

which of course doesn't mean it's a double standard or anything just that they're right... in predicting the complete collapse and non viability of a currency that seems to keep hanging around.

Remember: Requirements for posting that bitcoins are BULLSHIT - working in a comic book store. Requirements for pointing out the posters doing this are loving STUPID? Well, show me your 401k.

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

mojo1701a posted:

I was going to actually give you some benefit of the doubt, but uh... wow, you're a true believer eh? I mean, someone wants to make a few bucks by playing this system and letting someone else hold the hot potato is one thing, but this is a completely different ballgame.

What are you talking about here?

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

Sentient Data posted:

Lol, maybe back when cpu mining was a thing

You mean when goons were telling everyone it was a scam and to stay away?

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

mojo1701a posted:

I mean, if you want to say "yeah you can make some money on a bubble provided you don't risk more than you're willing to lose," then that's one thing.

Yeah that's the gist of it, you can speculate in these coins if you want to

quote:

But you're still literally arguing like it's such an amazing idea and that anyone not getting in on it and poo-pooing it is an idiot. Like, it's not "free money" in any of the multiple ways you've defined it, and you keep also talking about it as if it's a sure thing.

Telling people to buy penny stocks is loving bizarre advice, to me. Offering it as a more viable, sensible alternative to coins for your speculation money is bizarre, to me. I feel penny stocks are a poor choice, you spend your money on them if you prefer though.

[edit]And the FREE MONEY is me referring too when they were trivial to mine via CPU / GPU goons were helpfully warning their fellow goon not to do it, since it's a scam.

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

Sentient Data posted:

I stand by my laffs. Just because someone could have potentially dodged multiple minefields while hitting the lottery doesn't mean it was a sane plan at all.

Also, you're just talking about theoretical gains. If you got in at 3, you would have sold at 12. In at 100, sold at 50. In at 800, stolen by an exchange

You mean the actual predictions goons made when nobody knew what would happen were proven demonstrably wrong over time and hosed over anyone that listened to them? All for the sake of dumb jokes that turned out to be... wrong?

:monocle:

Well I never

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

mojo1701a posted:

But a lot of goons weren't. There have been multiple bubbles burst with tons of people buying into them at the peak with the belief that the bubble would go indefinitely. Sure if you held from the beginning you haven't lost anything, but for every coin cashed out at the top of a bubble, there had to be one purchased. That's literally how it works.

Pointing out the churn on the way to the $3000 valuation is not being correct, it's being wrong. "Oh this exchange collapsed" sounds clever, except for the fact that aside from costing those people money, it's completely irrelevant. Don't worry Divabot will be here with a bunch of reddit stories and twitter links to make it seem catastrohpic!

Then the price of coins will continue to rise while goons remain convinced of their imminent collapse. Yaknow, the cycle that has been repeating for 5 years, and has been wrong and dumb the whole way.

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

mojo1701a posted:

So people losing their shirts because of their belief is just "churn". Gotcha.

Cherry picking one redditor who admitted he lost some money in an exchange collapse because you trawl r/bitcoin and r/ethererum looking for exactly that and trying to behave like that's representative is not correct, no.

It's real cool how this stuff works. Bitcoins exist in an amazing state of superposition for goons. They're only real when you lose them. Any gains you make are unrealized, any losses on currency you mined are in fact real world losses.

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

to avoid a wall of text I'll reply in portions

mojo1701a posted:

But again, for you to sell at $3,000, someone else has to buy at $3,000. That's how trading works. Same as on a stock exchange.

Ah yes the mythical bagholder, ignoring that these currencies are being created out of thin air. Who's going to be holding the bag?? Is it you?? :ohdear:

quote:

If you want a more concrete example of how bubbles work, you should really come by the Canadian Debt Bubble megathread in D&D. Canada's entire economy right now is predicated on the price of housing currently being way higher than it ought to be, and how so many people have screwed themselves borrowing against the current market value of their property.

Yes and one of the things that I point out is that while Bitcoin is loving shady as poo poo, real instruments are pretty shady too, and somehow you seem to respond that I'm a true believer when I make this observation. I hope agreeing with something you said does not somehow imply I'm a true believer.

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

mojo1701a posted:

And yes, gains/losses are only realized if you actually receive the money. That's how finance works. Do you really not understand this?

The way it works for bitcoins is:
If you've made any money off bitcoins it's not real, you will get arrested for tax fraud and the electricity you used to mine it wasn't free
If you've lost any bitcoins due to hdd loss or exchanges that's your inheritance you'll never get back

quote:

And if you think we're cherry-picking, r/bitcoin itself had the suicide hotline phone number pinned to the top. They did that. Not us.

So like, something that happened for a few days because it's loving reddit years ago gets presented as a normal state of affairs here on something awful years later? That's exactly the bullshit I'm talking about dude. Do you believe this is a regular thing over there?

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

Every single person that said that bitcoins were a scam, had no inherent value, that they were going to collapse, that the exchanges were fake, that you'd lose money mining them, and that it's used for drug transactions / money laundering is as wrong as it is possible to be wrong while still alive

It's impressive that if you wanted to find the world's biggest idiots, empirically, you simply need go back over the past 5-6 years and find everyone that bravely warned people against Buttcoins while acting smug about how right they are. Some of them are still posting in this thread, which owns.

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

Stefan Prodan posted:

I mean, nobody ever said it wouldn't go up before crashing

I'm not even saying it won't go to 20,000

I'm just saying it's totally unpredictable and therefore not a good investment, also people were posting evidence earlier that the price is being manipulated and there's probably other shady poo poo that you can do when you don't have an SEC

I'm telling you you're loving stupid and probably shouldn't tell other people how to invest or make money given that this thing you keep calling BS on keeps appreciating, have you considered that?

Let me ask another way:
At what point would you have to admit that you were wrong? Like 6 months ago people were saying "You'll never be able to mine bitcoins profitably again, that time is past." Except anyone who had mined bitcoins would have made a profit, because they went up ~50% since then. So, I'm sure you'll claim they weren't wrong just like you weren't.

What would it take for your advice of "You should avoid bitcoins, don't mine them, it's a total scam" to be 100% clearly wrong? Can you come up with that criteria?

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

COMRADES posted:

Have you considered that something might be gaining in value and yet still be not worth it when a risk analysis is done?

No, people are free to speculate with their money how they wish. You were sitting there doomsaying it months ago when it was $2500. On what basis did you warn people off this thing that has gotten more liquidity, more trading, more funds, more nation state support, and more valuation the whole time? Because it keeps being proven wrong.

Like the fact that you are wrong and unable to qualify risk properly - which is 100% empirically true, shouldn't affect other people negatively. Why keep giving out garbage advice that keeps turning out wrong? When do you intend to stop giving out advice that turns out untrue every single time?

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

CassandraZara posted:

If the gains of mining are less than the cost of electricity, you're better off just buying bitcoins rather than mining them. Pointing out that they appreciated value past the breakeven point six months down the road doesn't change that.

Lmao people were saying you can never make a profit off coins you mine because chinese miners will outdo you. Now you're saying you're better off buying from scam exchanges and not wasting electricity l m a o.

If people had mined up coins the profit was roughly $3/hr. And that profit assumed that the coins would be worth $2500. The coins are now worth $4k which means the profit/hr was very very high. But as always, goons gave out garbage and useless advice that turned out to be untrue.

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

Stefan Prodan posted:

If Bitcoin never has a crash in the next 50 years then I'll say I was wrong.

That seems like very realistic success criteria... for someone trying at all costs to avoid admitting they were wrong

quote:

Also I never said they were a scam, that's your words. I'm just saying I think they are a bubble and it's impossible to tell where on the graph of a bubble you are. It could go up 1000% more or it could crash next week.

"Lol I just implied they were a scam, never said it, so I can't be called wrong when it turns out they are not"
-SA attorney ESQ

quote:

Mine em if you want, I don't give a poo poo, i just think there are a lot better investments you can make where more variables are known. I don't even have a problem with someone buying a small amount as a lottery ticket but I also don't have a problem with people gambling in any other way either as long as they recognize it for what it is.

Lmao imagine if someone had the balls to say this a year ago the YOSPOS crew (WRITING A BOOK) would have torn them apart but now people have walked the claims THIS FAR BACK it's loving amazing :hellyeah:

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

COMRADES posted:

I wasn't 'doomsaying.' My position is and always has been this is a speculative commodity that someone will be left holding the bag on when the music stops.


At the risk of sounding like a pretentious douchebag... my risk analysis is not wrong and I made a poo poo ton of money this last year without risking the entirety of my principal thanks.

Your risk analysis is stupid poo poo that was claiming you knew it was a scam, you weren't even willing to call it a commodity (BECAUSE NO INHERENT VALUE) last time, but here it is lmao this suddenly woke nuanced opinion that wasn't there a few months ago at all?? how did it appear?? a bitcoin mystery

Just amazing imagine doing a risk analysis, calling bullshit, being wrong, and declaring yourself good at risk analysis. Well folks wrap it up. With that standard this guy will never be bad at analyzing risk, like when he warns people off an asset that appreciates 50%+ in a few months.

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

Stefan Prodan posted:

I have no idea who you're talking about, please only actually talk about things I've said. I'm not some conglomeration of every poster in this thread or any other bitcoin thread.

There won't be a single person that will admit to being against Bitcoins despite years of posts to the contrary it's amazing, they vanish like a mirage the more the price goes up

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

EorayMel posted:

So then why didn't you buy some and make sick profits if you believed all goons were wrong just to really stick it to us?

Lmao imagine being this loving wrong, spending months going "HOW MANY DO YOU OWN" and now after being proven wrong retreating to "SO HOW MANY DID YOU BUY!!!"

Like I don't know, do you feel embarassed? Imagine the morons that claimed Columbus would sail off the edge of the earth. That's literally you dude. Doesn't that concern you?

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

CassandraZara posted:

If I invested in every little thing for fear of missing out, I'd probably be pretty broke now. In hindsight, I wish I had "invested" in bitcoin when I first heard about it, but that doesn't mean its fundamentals are sound.

It means that every single goon prediction about its demise, about how its fundamentals were unsound, the exchanges being rigged were wrong, misleading, and useless. And everyone that perpetrated them is clearly not qualified to advise others re: investments yet did so for years anyway, smugly laughing at how dumb anyone that disagreed with them was. That's pretty incredible stuff, imo.

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

Waffle House posted:

My coworker's Android phone got hacked and they 2FA'd his wallet away from him. I think he only lost like $~100 of mined coins, but he has no recourse here yeah?

Yeah and what if like, he got mugged or lost his wallet containing $100, what happens then?

Clearly cash is loving unreliable get rid of it and don't let anyone use it with you / around you.

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

EorayMel posted:

I mean, why wouldn't you?

Hmm, because my concern is the garbage advice people are giving and not on making a buck?? Which is what I've seen saying the ENTIRE TIME?

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

RabbitWizard posted:

Great posting, captain hindsight.

Where was your post in the past talking about Chinese millionaires starting to use bitcoins? That's what you foresaw back then and that's why you are complaining, right?

I didn't make predictions that it would go up, I claimed that saying it was a scam that was guaranteed to fail was absolutely premature and that people had no way of knowing that.

I don't have to predict that it's going to go up or how much it will go up or what characteristics will cause it to go up.

My claim is that people saying it's a fraud or scam or unreliable are wrong and are giving garbage advice. I'm not making the claim, they are, and I am calling their claim false - and it is being proven false, empriically, over time.

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

CassandraZara posted:

Wrong.


I don't know why you'd take investment advice from a goon but yeah, you're right. No goon is qualified to advise others, and if they are, they won't provide that information via a pseudononymous web forum.

Cool, forums superstars making fun of bitcoins and buttcoins miners were dumber than the redditors they made fun of for years, and this guy admitted to it. Well done everyone.

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

EorayMel posted:

If you know that in bitcoin going up uP UP, why would you not take advantage of that fact and make money yourself?

I don't know that it's going up, and I'm telling you that the people that know it's going down down are wrong, because none of us can see the future but they are sure that they can.

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

COMRADES posted:

So post your fat gains then or are you just angry because you would have bought but didn't on SA's advice?

It's interesting to watch people retreat to this.

My gains are disagreeing with everyone that said it was a scam or risky, like yourself, last time around we had this discussion. You are emprically wrong about the world, unable to make useful predictions, and anyone that listens to your advice will be diminished financially.

I think that's hilarious and plan to keep revisiting this over time, because I find it very funny the claims that were thrown around and luckily we have this thread and last thread around to refer back to!

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

Stefan Prodan posted:

So you're saying it's an unpredictable investment that could go up or down and you can't make a strong case for whether it will go either way?

Like...the same thing that I'm saying?

Yeah except the only posts on the topic for about 5+ years on these very forums were about how dumb you were to ever entertain anything to do with buttcoins, this thing you're posting right here is the very woke BTC are over 3000 and staying there view that has been established past month or so

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

COMRADES posted:

You're throwing words like empirically around and refusing to post any kind of empirical evidence when prompted so :shrug:

Whatever it's kind of just funny watching the occasional goon declare they know everything then engage in every single fallacy retail traders engage in. Chart me some patterns next?

Empirically, an asset that was $2500 when you warned people away from it due to sound Risk analysis, is now over $4000 with much higher volume, meaning your advice was factually incorrect unless you are predicting some imminent disaster you believe is about to occur?

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

CassandraZara posted:

If you "invested" in cash then lololololol

Cash and liquid assets are often a part of portfolios or is this some gag I'm missing

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

COMRADES posted:

And some people made a lot of money and some people lost it all.

If I told you "bet everything you have today and in 5-10 years you might be a millionaire or totally broke" you'd say yeah that's a good risk to take?

Umm what people do you believe lost it all going from bitcoins worth $2500 6 months ago when we were talking about this to now when they are worth $4000? Aside from a few edge cases this seems hard to imagine, can you please explain in more detail?

What you were telling people is that bitcoins are a worthless joke being traded on the magic the gathering online exchange with no inherent value and that people should invest in anything else. Even in this thread you were suggesting traditional stocks. I'm telling you are loving people over with ignorant and wrong advice, for some bizarre reason.

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

Stefan Prodan posted:

Again this is not true, only that it came out a certain way

If you bet even money for your entire net worth that a die will roll a 1 or 2 and it does, and I told you not to, it doesn't make me wrong if you win.

Even if you bet even money that it would be a 1-3, and I said "that's a bad investment" because it has 0 EV, I'm still not wrong if you win.

Well luckily we can simply observe what happens, and all the people that predicted that Bitcoin was a total garbage scam being traded like wow gold and magic the gathering online, vs those that felt it was worth considering, and what the total valuation and liquidity and acceptance rate will be

So yeah dude the guys that were busy laughing about MT GOX I'm just curious their take and how they weren't wrong

OMG do you even know what MTGOX stands for it

it's not even the right kind of cards.. not even magic cards... magic the gathering ONLINE cards ahahahahaha

the wrong kind of magic cards

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

COMRADES posted:

lmao you have no idea what you're talking about it's great.

Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

It's amazing dude I can now tell you've read at least 1 prospectus in your life but I am also pretty sure you don't know what you're talking about the more we discuss ;)

Anyway let's just agree that I'll be chiming back in periodically to revisit our stances w/r/t Bitcoin and your expert Risk analysis of it

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

CassandraZara posted:

Ham Sandwiches have you thought about buying bitcoins or maybe a few of the five hundred alt-coins that have sprung up this year? An index of all of them would probably beat the Russell 3000, though it would be fair to say that most will lose value in a year's time.

Is there some kind of contractual obligation you have to tell other people what to do with their money because they are unable to decide for themselves?

I'm genuinely interested from warning me away to Bitcoins to warning me towards them, people seem to feel very very very strongly about what I do with my money. Can you explain to me why?

Just to clarify, I don't give a gently caress about anything you do in your life or with your money and I hope you don't tell me about it.

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000


It's not that laughing at Mt Gox was wrong or that the theft was inevitable growing pains of taking something completely fake and having people use it for real

It's that this guy is smarter than fedora redditors and makes sound financial investments in assets that have intrinsic worth

*totally ignores whole new financial system, you can't fool this guy, spends years warning people off of it, is wrong every step of the way, congratulates self for amazing predictions*

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

COMRADES posted:

You literally just linked an Exchange that "lost" all their customer's holdings lmao.

Yep and Bitcoins will forever be a scam as a result, with people helpfully reminding you of that fact as they cross $3000 and stay there :hellyeah:

Dude you get that my point is, this is poo poo that happened in the past, clearly didn't matter, and yet many forums posters still laugh about it while it's clearly irrelevant?

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

COMRADES posted:

Well idk what you're upset about because all I'm saying as far as risk analysis goes that it is far from a sure thing and imo there are better things to put your money into.

The fact that an exchange which handled 70% of trading volume stole all their customer's wallets is exactly what I'm talking about. If you ignored us 5 years ago and loaded up on BTC, you would have lost it all more likely than not.

I'm saying that your Expert Risk Analysis identified exchange collapse as a Risk based on the past collapse of MT GOX (while claiming past performance is irrelevant), and since the last thread where this was discussed there hasn't been any Risk to exchanges, which means that I believe your Risk Analysis was useless, empirically, given that the risk you identified has not materialized and the price of Bitcoins has increased by 50% since your prediction.

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

CassandraZara posted:

lol and I thought you were being serious.

Bitcoin is fascinating to me but when you act like this, it's difficult to take you seriously. I don't think you're trolling but man, you're hilarious.

Lmao exchange collapses dude, not general risk. There have not been Mt Gox style exchange collapses despite constant predictions to that effect.

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

exploded mummy posted:

*looks at trade volumes ever since China started it's crackdown back in January*



Nice chart, that ends in May and now it's October.

What do you think happened since then??? Hmm?? Can you update the pic??

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

COMRADES posted:

My risk analysis identified systemic issues like that back when BTC was originally a Thing so don't put words in my mouth thanks. "Am I protected if the worst happens?" is a basic question to be asked in any endeavor.

Currently there is no regulation so as far as I'm concerned the exchanges are still suspect, but alright just keep it in a private wallet and don't get hacked. You're still exposed to tons of other factors like the Chinese government deciding to crack down on it or competing cryptocurrencies or several other things.

This is 10000% incompatible with your past advice warning people to stay the gently caress away at all costs because it's a scam with no inherent value only used for money laundering!!!!!

Has your position been refined or was it that perhaps somehow people were missing this nuance previously?

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Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

COMRADES posted:

And what happens the next time China does something?

I don't know, I don't have a crystal ball and neither do you. Invest if you want, don't if you don't. Don't act like you know it's a scam and don't tell people they'll lose if they invest. That's the loving point.


quote:

How? That's still true.

It's clearly not true because hedge funds are mining coins now and they weren't previously. And more and more countries and retailers are accepting them as payment. This is just as fake as the claims that the exchanges are inherently a scam and yet you keep repeating it.

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