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Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

don't forget hitmen that are actually FBI agents 100% of the time

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Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

poverty goat posted:

Consider investing in new jokes

no way I am allin on bit coin

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

i'm sure there's some adult snuff porn too

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

You know, when you pay for regular porn

Like we all do I'm sure

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

Here's the thing about bitcoin:

It might go up, none of us is saying it might not go up to 30,000. Dutch tulips bulbs went up like you wouldn't believe!

But there is absolutely no way to tell if it will or won't, you're playing dice with a magic die where you can't tell how many sides it has. There is no way to tell at any given point whether it's a good invesmtent.

It has some utility but it's priced way higher than that, it's priced based on people just thinking that other people think it will keep going up. As far as I can tell that's the definition of a speculative bubble.

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

COMRADES posted:

Similarly this is the logic of a person who won the lotto and is now seriously advising everyone they know to sell all their holdings and buy lotto tickets.

It isn't a good investment now and it wasn't a good investment then. Just because some people made tons of money doesn't change the risk analysis.

Where are all the news stories from the absolute poo poo tons of internet people going "I'm saving up every last BTC I mine I have thousands now" from back in the day who are now super rich? There's some puff pieces here and there but in general you don't see very many of those do you? I wonder why.

e: Final note: if a poo poo ton of people did get rich the IRS would be all over them and that hasn't happened either.

The funny thing is too there must be TONS of early adopters who mined hundreds/thousands of coins and sold them whenever it became worth a decent amount total

Like for a lot of people I bet that was when it was $100, or hell even $10 if you had mined thousands of them

There are probably way more people like that who are miserable because if the amount of bitcoins they could have right now than there are people who mined them or bought them for pennies and sat on them and kept them safe

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

It's mostly rebounded in price already, at least to around 4k

Will be interesting to see what it does at the end of the month

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

That's when China is gonna try to shut down their bitcoin exchanges, according to this article

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

I mean, nobody ever said it wouldn't go up before crashing

I'm not even saying it won't go to 20,000

I'm just saying it's totally unpredictable and therefore not a good investment, also people were posting evidence earlier that the price is being manipulated and there's probably other shady poo poo that you can do when you don't have an SEC

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

Ham Sandwiches posted:

I'm telling you you're loving stupid and probably shouldn't tell other people how to invest or make money given that this thing you keep calling BS on keeps appreciating, have you considered that?

Let me ask another way:
At what point would you have to admit that you were wrong? Like 6 months ago people were saying "You'll never be able to mine bitcoins profitably again, that time is past." Except anyone who had mined bitcoins would have made a profit, because they went up ~50% since then. So, I'm sure you'll claim they weren't wrong just like you weren't.

What would it take for your advice of "You should avoid bitcoins, don't mine them, it's a total scam" to be 100% clearly wrong? Can you come up with that criteria?

If Bitcoin never has a crash in the next 50 years then I'll say I was wrong.

Also I never said they were a scam, that's your words. I'm just saying I think they are a bubble and it's impossible to tell where on the graph of a bubble you are. It could go up 1000% more or it could crash next week.

Mine em if you want, I don't give a poo poo, i just think there are a lot better investments you can make where more variables are known. I don't even have a problem with someone buying a small amount as a lottery ticket but I also don't have a problem with people gambling in any other way either as long as they recognize it for what it is.

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

Also you know if someone says "I think there's an 80% chance this crashes this year" and it doesn't, that doesn't prove them wrong, right?

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

Jeffrey of YOSPOS posted:

But it is evidence that they're wrong, and when it happens every year for a decade, wrongness seems to be the most likely outcome.

Yes that's definitely true, I'm just saying a lot of people have the fallacy of taking it as proof (see how people acted about polls after the election)

I mean I think my position is pretty soft and hard to prove wrong since I'm just saying "I think there is a much higher chance of a massive crash with this than other things so be careful how much you put in it" so for me to be wrong it would have to go decades without having any sort of crash which maybe it will do!!! But I think other investments are probably better

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

Ham Sandwiches posted:

That seems like very realistic success criteria... for someone trying at all costs to avoid admitting they were wrong


"Lol I just implied they were a scam, never said it, so I can't be called wrong when it turns out they are not"
-SA attorney ESQ


Lmao imagine if someone had the balls to say this a year ago the YOSPOS crew (WRITING A BOOK) would have torn them apart but now people have walked the claims THIS FAR BACK it's loving amazing

I have no idea who you're talking about, please only actually talk about things I've said. I'm not some conglomeration of every poster in this thread or any other bitcoin thread.

I made very mild criticisms about bitcoin and people going nuts about it and you turned it into YOU SAID IT WAS TERRIBLE AND A SCAM and I have never said anything like that, if you can find anything like that that I've ever posted I'll buy you a forums upgrade.

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

Ham Sandwiches posted:

There won't be a single person that will admit to being against Bitcoins despite years of posts to the contrary it's amazing, they vanish like a mirage the more the price goes up

I have always posted that I thought it was a risky thing to put a lot of money into and that I wouldn't invest a lot in it but gamble on it if you want, again, if you find me ever posting anything other than this I will give you a forums upgrade or

By the way I will still maintain this position even if it goes to 20,000 in the next year because again I have said it might continue to go way up I have no idea, I just think it's a gamble. Sometimes gambles win!

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

whoops double post

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

Like everything you're saying could be said about any penny stock that actually went up a ton (I don't know enough about penny stocks to name one but I'm sure that at least one has taken off) and you could post HAHAH YOU GUYS WERE ALL WRONG I KNEW THIS WAS GONNA BE GOOD FROM THE BEGINNING but that doesn't make it a good investment just because it went up

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

Ham Sandwiches posted:

I don't know that it's going up, and I'm telling you that the people that know it's going down down are wrong, because none of us can see the future but they are sure that they can.

So you're saying it's an unpredictable investment that could go up or down and you can't make a strong case for whether it will go either way?

Like...the same thing that I'm saying?

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

Ham Sandwiches posted:

Yeah except the only posts on the topic for about 5+ years on these very forums were about how dumb you were to ever entertain anything to do with buttcoins, this thing you're posting right here is the very woke BTC are over 3000 and staying there view that has been established past month or so

You realize an investment where you can't actually give any reasons a thing should continue to be more likely to go up than down is what we call a "bad investment" right

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

Ham Sandwiches posted:

Empirically, an asset that was $2500 when you warned people away from it due to sound Risk analysis, is now over $4000 with much higher volume, meaning your advice was factually incorrect unless you are predicting some imminent disaster you believe is about to occur?

Again this is not true, only that it came out a certain way

If you bet even money for your entire net worth that a die will roll a 1 or 2 and it does, and I told you not to, it doesn't make me wrong if you win.

Even if you bet even money that it would be a 1-3, and I said "that's a bad investment" because it has 0 EV, I'm still not wrong if you win.

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

i can say this for sure

no matter what happens with bitcoin

you are a huge dumbass and a terrible poster

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

Ham Sandwiches posted:

It's so genuinely enjoyable going back through old bitcoin threads and just reading the smug superiority with which people posted. It's great. People are generally careful to not be wrong about stuff or make wishy washy predictions so they don't look totally dumb, but not this time

Which, again, if you find me being smugly superior in any posts I will give you 10 bux straight up or a forums upgrade because I'm pretty sure I've been consistent this whole time, but instead you're just acting {all goons} are the same person and just turning me into some sort of goon collective strawman

I mean I could be wrong but I don't think I am

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

There's a biscuit place near me that accepts bitcoin (through bitpay) and they even have a t-shirt that says "I bought my biscuit with Bitcoin"

I'm pretty sure the fact that the owner's son works there and wears a fedora all the time is NOT a coincidence

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

sir this is a mcdonald's drive through

(I did read all of that though)

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

i'm glad there are others in here who are pro bitcoin who I don't think are as dumb as Ham Sandwiches because then I can feel like I'm saying without anti-bitcoin bias that Ham Sandwiches is profoundly retarded

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

those are cool iceland pics, I'm glad that bitcoin worked out for you (not sarcasm)

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Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

How sure are we Satoshi is even still alive?

I mean it's been like 10 years, there's some at least single digit % he died of all the normal ways people die, not to mention some chance that he gleefully sold the entire startup bitcoin amount to someone when it reached like $100 and then has since killed himself based on seeing what it became later

(If you doubt anyone who still had say $100 million would kill themselves over that, I'm pretty sure there were people who committed suicide during the 2008 crash because they were now worth half of what they were, even when the new amount was still billions)

or I mean some other related disaster, like he had the original startup bitcoins on a hard drive that died before it even got to $20 or something

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