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The funny thing about kickers is that the growth at the position has been so limited. All the players in the league are bigger, faster, and stronger, and the game has changed significantly because of it. But the longest field goal in NFL history today is only one yard further than what the longest field goal in NFL history was nearly 50 years ago. Kickers are constantly getting more accurate, but it's possible we may not see a 70 yard field goal in our lifetimes if current trends continue
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Mar 2, 2017 17:47
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Chromatic posted:i seriously can't stop laughing at this Poor Jerry lol 
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Mar 2, 2017 17:47
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Intruder posted:I'm struggling to think of one CyberPingu posted:I really cant think of any... They all happen late in the game and tend to involve situations where kicking a field goal would put you up by an "odd" score. Kalli mentioned one-when you're up by 9-10, you don't get much out of going up 12-13, since the opponent's game plan doesn't change--you're better off forcing the opponent to go further to score. And although it seems counter-intuitive, there was an analysis done on this a while back that I don't have on hand that made a compelling case that you were better off being up 3 points at the end of a game than 4, 5, or 6 points. In part because when you're up by 3, your opponents tend to play for the field goal (and a tie), but if they're down 4/5/6, they go for the TD, which results in a win on their end no matter what (if they get it), and their likelihood of getting the TD increases because they suddenly start playing 4-down football. So oddly and controversially, teams may better off pinning an opponent at the 1 when they're up by 3 than giving them the ball at the 25+* down 6 points. *although I should point out that teams also try to return kickoffs waaaay too often, which hurts their field position Raku posted:Don't forget that if you have an amazing kicker like that you could call fair catch kicks and instantly score uncontested whenever you want to. Yeah but I'm not sure your defense would appreciate your 0-second offensive drives Volkerball posted:The funny thing about kickers is that the growth at the position has been so limited. All the players in the league are bigger, faster, and stronger, and the game has changed significantly because of it. But the longest field goal in NFL history today is only one yard further than what the longest field goal in NFL history was nearly 50 years ago. Kickers are constantly getting more accurate, but it's possible we may not see a 70 yard field goal in our lifetimes if current trends continue Part of this is also that coaches just don't attempt 70-yard field goals. If it's not something you have to do ever, and you don't practice the poo poo out of it, you're not going to get good at it. And since you aren't good at it (and since there's a lot of upside to trying to get across mid-field), coaches don't want to try it. Also the risk of a short FG getting returned for a score is pretty high, given that you don't have your coverage unit on the field. TheChirurgeon fucked around with this message at 17:54 on Mar 2, 2017 |
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Mar 2, 2017 17:50
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Late but lmao at phili giving the titans Murray for free 
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Mar 2, 2017 17:53
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Grittybeard posted:Either addiction is a hell of a thing, or Dan Snyder is a hell of a thing. We don't really know for sure which it is. According to Deadspin, Chris Cooley said on the radio that he was told McCloughan's drinking again.
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Mar 2, 2017 17:58
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I used to think Chris Cooley was kind of funny. What a stooge.
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Mar 2, 2017 18:01
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CyberPingu posted:Why? Surely its still better to take your points? I honestly can't remember what the parameters of this discussion are, but basically when up 9-10 points with ~2 minutes left in the game. If it's a sub 40 yard FG, you just kick it, because it's too close to punt or do anything to gain enough yardage to trade away the points. If it's a 45+ yard FG, you can consider punting because you have a <huge variance depending on kicker and distance> 25-40% or so chance of missing it, with small chance of it being blocked, which is your worst case scenario. It's a higher chance then usual of being blocked because the defense has to sell out to block it in this scenario to at least try and force a rushed kick and lower the odds. Missing the kick gives them the ball around the 35-40 needing two scores Making the kick in this scenario just increases your lead to 12-13 points, so you still lose if they score twice (albeit two touchdowns now). You also probably* pooch the kickoff to eliminate the chance of a long return, so they end up starting around the 30-35... which really isn't that different a scenario then the miss scenario above. It's better, but doesn't improve your win expectancy by that much. *Unless your kicker has a out of the endzone quality leg TheChirurgeon posted:And although it seems counter-intuitive, there was an analysis done on this a while back that I don't have on hand that made a compelling case that you were better off being up 3 points at the end of a game than 4, 5, or 6 points. In part because when you're up by 3, your opponents tend to play for the field goal (and a tie), but if they're down 4/5/6, they go for the TD, which results in a win on their end no matter what (if they get it), and their likelihood of getting the TD increases because they suddenly start playing 4-down football. So oddly and controversially, teams may better off pinning an opponent at the 1 when they're up by 3 than giving them the ball at the 25+* down 6 points. I wrote the argument for a punt when you could kick a FG so now I will reveal my hypocritical nature and say coaches are extremely conservative, and will play for the tie when they only need a FG instead of making the riskier plays you need to when you need a touchdown.
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Mar 2, 2017 18:20
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https://twitter.com/finhater13/status/837350364487823360 https://twitter.com/armandosalguero/status/837351831374286850
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Mar 2, 2017 18:22
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Kalli posted:I wrote the argument for a punt when you could kick a FG so now I will reveal my hypocritical nature and say coaches are extremely conservative, and will play for the tie when they only need a FG instead of making the riskier plays you need to when you need a touchdown. Yeah I mean, we agree--the only reason it's better to be up by 3 than by 6 (or up 9 instead of 12) is because NFL coaches play as conservatively as they can, so when you're up 3 they're playing for a tie and not nearly as dangerous as when they're playing for a TD/win. Because even if they hit the FG, you still have a 50%+ chance of winning the game.
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Mar 2, 2017 18:39
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Kaepernick says he'll stand for the National Anthem next season. I guess when you're desperate for a job you'll toss your political beliefs aside.
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Mar 2, 2017 19:45
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If you can't protect a 2 TD lead with less than two minutes to go why would you expect to protect a TD and FG lead What you end up with is the team driving down and then kicking a FG as soon as the offense bogs down, maybe even on second or third down, rather than having teams forced to try to convert third or fourth and long It's also significantly easier to get into FG range than score a TD, especially when you need chunk plays
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Mar 2, 2017 20:21
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As a Falcons fan I am so triggered by this topic
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Mar 2, 2017 20:27
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Intruder posted:If you can't protect a 2 TD lead with less than two minutes to go why would you expect to protect a TD and FG lead Yeah...I figure if you have points on offer you should take them every time
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Mar 2, 2017 20:33
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Intruder posted:If you can't protect a 2 TD lead with less than two minutes to go why would you expect to protect a TD and FG lead I was writing up an explanation, but I can't tell if you agree or not based on this The argument boils down to how coaches *actually* play when they only need a FG, versus how they *should* play--they don't go HAM until the offense "bogs down" but instead get close to "FG range" (another common misconception), then get real conservative. Jason Garrett is the loving master of this move, btw One thing to remember is that if you give up a FG while you're up 3 at the end of the game, you still have a roughly 50/50 shot at winning, but if you give up a TD down 6, the game is basically over unless you're up against the Bucs This is from an old analysis (2013), but it looked at the likelihood of a drive resulting in a score of each type based on starting position. TDs are actually more likely outcomes than field goals--not FG attempts, mind you--but field goals:  CyberPingu posted:Yeah...I figure if you have points on offer you should take them every time This might be true if coaches attempting to come back at the end of the game called plays to score a TD and only "settled" for a Field Goal to get into OT, but what ends up happening is that they actually just play for the field goal, which isn't guaranteed (65% success at about 50 yards out), and then if they do tie it up, still lose half the time. In the 50-yard FG attempt case, your chances of winning are 0.65 * 0.5, or about 33%. In the case I mentioned, we gotta take field position into things, though: Consider a start from the 5--according to the chart there, your odds of a FG are *theoretically* something like 5%, and your odds of a TD are something like 13%. So 5% of the time, you get that 50/50 shot at winning (2.5%) plus your chances of just getting a TD (13%), so 15.5% chance of winning. Or losing, if you're the team that punted instead of going up 6. On the other hand, if you're up 6 and your opponent has the ball at the 25-yard line, about 18% of those drives end in a TD. Of those, something like 95% have successful extra points, and 5% end in OT, which leads to a 50/50 chance of winning. Crunch the numbers, and your odds of winning if you're the team that's down are 17.55%, or a 17.55% chance that you'll lose if you kick the Field Goal. Admittedly, this doesn't consider every factor--obviously the time will be an issue, and whether your opponent fields the kick, etc. But the odds suggest that in 2-4 minute situations, you could in fact be better off being up 3 than up 6, and that's *before* you consider how it changes how opponents play! TheChirurgeon fucked around with this message at 20:55 on Mar 2, 2017 |
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Mar 2, 2017 20:45
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https://twitter.com/SeaTimesSports/status/837382849686880256
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Mar 2, 2017 20:51
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Are we not talking in hypotheticals here with a kicker with an 80% accuracy from 60+ yds
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Mar 2, 2017 20:56
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The Bills shut down their official team message board without warning New PR guy must not like negativity
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Mar 2, 2017 21:03
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CyberPingu posted:Are we not talking in hypotheticals here with a kicker with an 80% accuracy from 60+ yds In this example, you're the team with the super-accurate kicker, and the question is whether you kick a FG to go up by 6 points at the end of the game from the 60-yard line, or kick a punt and try to pin an opponent inside their 10. The point is that just because you *can* kick a 60-yard field goal, doesn't mean it's the best play. yeah obviously if your opponent has that kicker, poo poo changes quite a bit
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Mar 2, 2017 21:07
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That's an interesting and surprising chart, but also isn't focused on end game situations where you can't march down the field for 5-6 minutes and have to try to score within a minute or so I'm somewhat talking myself in and out of both situations over here
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Mar 2, 2017 21:09
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Intruder posted:That's an interesting and surprising chart, but also isn't focused on end game situations where you can't march down the field for 5-6 minutes and have to try to score within a minute or so Ha yeah, I know wh at you mean. The time on the clock makes a difference, but only so much--if you have 30 seconds left, trying to get 70 yards from the 5 to kick a field goal isn't *that* much harder than getting 75 yards for the TD. The net is still "go around 70 yards in 30 seconds," and if you have 0 timeouts left, I'd wager that hurts your FG chances even more, since you need to either spike the ball before the attempt or rush like crazy to line up for the field goal. It also doesn't take into account coaching decisions, though--I will fight to the death to defend the idea that coaches turn into total cowards on the game's final drive when they just need a FG to tie e: gently caress you, Garrett
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Mar 2, 2017 21:13
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FizFashizzle posted:In case you're not following this story... Bruce Allen's back, baby http://i.imgur.com/skmnGCY.mp4 football daddy
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Mar 2, 2017 22:01
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TheChirurgeon posted:
You can EASILY get around this by only having 11 active players on offense, with the other 35 players on your active roster comprising the deepest defense in the league.
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Mar 2, 2017 22:06
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TheChirurgeon posted:
I'm gonna note that there are kickers out there who have the leg to go 70, but it would require line driving the ball and making yourself extremely vulnerable to a blocked kick.
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Mar 2, 2017 22:08
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DNS posted:I'm gonna note that there are kickers out there who have the leg to go 70, but it would require line driving the ball and making yourself extremely vulnerable to a blocked kick. It could happen with a free kick. The 49ers tried one a few years back from 71 yards.
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Mar 2, 2017 22:14
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I don't think I want to pay $10 to get advertised at for hours, but make that paper Gronk: quote:Come join ROCKSTAR LIMO and many more vendors for an intimate and informative night of fun, food and unique ideas- designed to help you plan for your perfect wedding day!
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Mar 2, 2017 22:15
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Panthers are letting mike remmers walk and are interested in Matt Khalil. So, you know, kill me.
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Mar 2, 2017 22:16
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I assume the Gronk Bus is just like the Bang Bus?
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Mar 2, 2017 22:16
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DNS posted:You can EASILY get around this by only having 11 active players on offense, with the other 35 players on your active roster comprising the deepest defense in the league. ha, I'm not sure how easy it would be to actually buy 35 competent defenders for your experimental team. You'd also still need more than 11 active players on offense, since you'd need to account for injuries, and even with your 60-yard leg kicker, you'd a way to reliably get the ball 20 yards downfield
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Mar 2, 2017 22:19
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The NFL continues to change the rules to try and gently caress the seahawks over https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewSiciliano/status/837409202897215489
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Mar 2, 2017 22:20
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Grittybeard posted:^^--in Volkerball's defense you have been one of the loudest 'don't draft running backs high' guys unless I'm mixing you up with someone else Teams are only allocated 30 official visits with prospects. That's a valuable resource to spend on a guy who turns out to be a knucklehead, when you could've just sat down with him at the combine and thought "oh wow, holy poo poo this guy is a tool" and immediately moved on. When you think of the types of players who are the trickiest to evaluate due to makeup concerns, the Mixons of the world are who teams probably want to see at the combine more than anyone else - the tough evaluations are who you want to have a fat pamphlet of info on. Not to mention the medicals, which for a workhorse position like RB should be pretty valuable
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Mar 2, 2017 22:22
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Lord Waffle Beard posted:The NFL continues to change the rules to try and gently caress the seahawks over Daren Bates did it first
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Mar 2, 2017 22:27
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Codependent Poster posted:I assume the Gronk Bus is just like the Bang Bus? He has a bus and driver that bring him and his posse around and it blew up during that summer of Gronk stuff and then Gronk ended up licensing it to Rockstar Limo that now rents out two "Gronk buses". Gronk's personal bus:  The Gronk Bus:  The 87: 
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Mar 2, 2017 22:31
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Wow, Gronk owns two time machines
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Mar 2, 2017 22:33
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I was just saying to myself when I saw that advertisement... I'm hearing way too much about the Gronk Bus lately, there must be some marketing thing, and then found the limo company stuff.
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Mar 2, 2017 22:36
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DariusLikewise posted:Daren Bates did it first NFL didn't care until the seahawks did it, the NFL AND refs have a hard on to try and stop the seahawks but they are too good
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Mar 2, 2017 22:38
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Intruder posted:Wow, Gronk owns two time machines bam, he's in Florida!
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Mar 2, 2017 22:43
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Color me not-shocked that the Gronk Bus has a stripper pole.
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Mar 2, 2017 22:49
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DNS posted:You can EASILY get around this by only having 11 active players on offense, with the other 35 players on your active roster comprising the deepest defense in the league. Composing.
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Mar 2, 2017 23:04
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Shangri-Law School posted:Composing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rjg5WAKqhDM&t=11s
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Mar 2, 2017 23:10
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FizFashizzle posted:In case you're not following this story... gently caress this stupid team.
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Mar 2, 2017 23:10
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