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Grittybeard
Mar 29, 2010


I'd imagine OBP compared to average would tell you something predictable? It seems like having a good eye doesn't really go away unless your eyesight just fails. I figure present day Barry and Ted Williams frozen head could still draw walks.

Well there's a decent chance present day Barry would be better than a league average hitter anyway, but whatever.

e: I have done absolutely no research here, so there's a chance I'm incredibly wrong.

Grittybeard fucked around with this message at Aug 10, 2017 around 01:40

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exploded mummy
Sep 10, 2008

So, so you think you can tell
Heaven from hell
Blue skies from pain
Can you tell a green field
From a cold steel rail?

- Incubus



Doctor Rope

Dr. Angela Ziegler posted:

OK so this is more a newbie discussion topic than a question, but: What stats are the best to look at to get a holistic view of a player, specificially, which stats do you think have the most predictive (signal how the player will perform in the future) value?

Is it OBP? Homers? fielding-independent ERA? what one thing could you point at on a player's baseball card and go "based on the last three years of <<this>>, player X will do great next year, barring injury or acute steve blass disease?

OPS

Dr. Angela Ziegler
Jan 2, 2005



Heroes NEVER Die


Peanut President posted:

stats are never predictive.

then why are there scouts? and stats guys?

Peanut President
Nov 5, 2008



Dr. Angela Ziegler posted:

then why are there scouts? and stats guys?

Fundamentals and settling dumb arguments, mostly.

Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer


This and OPS+ are probably the best indicators of how good a player is offensively as a whole.

Dr. Angela Ziegler posted:

then why are there scouts? and stats guys?

Scouts are around to analyze guys who you don't have hundreds/thousands of plate appearances or innings pitched to analyze. Scouting high school/college talent the scouts know the leagues and what statistics really mean in the context of where the player is playing. It's about predicting young players without the the big meaningful stats to analyze.

Popete fucked around with this message at Aug 10, 2017 around 03:08

Inspector_666
Oct 7, 2003

benny with the good hair


No individual statline will be predictive, but you can look at career numbers and at least take an educated guess as to how a guy will do in the next season.

Of course, then you can be hilariously wrong when they go straight off a cliff like Albert Pujols and Mark Teixeira and A-Rod.

The only stuff that's "predictive" are things like ERA v FIP or xStats v actual stats. And even then you're usually just trying to kind of make an over/under bet rather than setting a real number.

Personally I think wRC+ for offense, ERA (still, really) for pitchers, and WAR for both overall are the best "shorthand" stats for how well somebody has done. For pitchers it's tougher because people define their success differently in different cases.

cis autodrag
Jan 6, 2012

that's just applause from ghosts




Gary’s Answer

OK, Rick is a man with one superpower. If he gets in base, he will always steal second and then third on the first two pitches that the batter takes. He can never be thrown out because magic.

If Rick hits at a league average clip, where do you put him in your lineup and what so you have the guy after him do when he gets in?

I'm thinking Rick should hit leadoff and the number 2 guy should just always take the first two pitches from the pitcher regardless if hittabilty, balls and stories, etc. Advancing a runner two bases off an at bat is inherently better odds than the randomness that comes in whenever you make contact.

The only edge case I can think of is if there's already two outs and we take two strikes to advance Rick a lot of the value is lost.

Paul Zuvella
Dec 7, 2011


Dr. Angela Ziegler posted:

then why are there scouts? and stats guys?

Stats guys exist because you can use stats to have a good idea of how people may perform in the future.

No stat being predictive is true in the sense that you can in no way actually predict future performance with any certainty. Players may take huge steps forward or backward for seemingly no reason and there is no way to really do that. Stats guys can try to make some sense out of the huge amounts of noise that happen in baseball statistics and it is endlessly useful, if only to get a general idea of things.

Scouts exist because the actual mechanics of baseball (throwing a ball, swinging a bat, fielding) matter a whole lot and having people that can accurately see who does and does not have good mechanics is extremely important.

You can hit extremely well in high school if you are good at just putting the bat on the ball, but if there is a hitch in your swing you are going to be way, way way less likely to be able to catch up to the faster balls in the big leagues, for example.

ALFbrot
Apr 17, 2002


cis autodrag posted:

OK, Rick is a man with one superpower. If he gets in base, he will always steal second and then third on the first two pitches that the batter takes. He can never be thrown out because magic.

If Rick hits at a league average clip, where do you put him in your lineup and what so you have the guy after him do when he gets in?

I'm thinking Rick should hit leadoff and the number 2 guy should just always take the first two pitches from the pitcher regardless if hittabilty, balls and stories, etc. Advancing a runner two bases off an at bat is inherently better odds than the randomness that comes in whenever you make contact.

The only edge case I can think of is if there's already two outs and we take two strikes to advance Rick a lot of the value is lost.

With 2 outs, I'd still take the first pitch

Inspector_666
Oct 7, 2003

benny with the good hair


cis autodrag posted:

OK, Rick is a man with one superpower. If he gets in base, he will always steal second and then third on the first two pitches that the batter takes. He can never be thrown out because magic.

If Rick hits at a league average clip, where do you put him in your lineup and what so you have the guy after him do when he gets in?

I'm thinking Rick should hit leadoff and the number 2 guy should just always take the first two pitches from the pitcher regardless if hittabilty, balls and stories, etc. Advancing a runner two bases off an at bat is inherently better odds than the randomness that comes in whenever you make contact.

The only edge case I can think of is if there's already two outs and we take two strikes to advance Rick a lot of the value is lost.

He has to bat leadoff. Then maybe you actually have a crappier hitter in the 2 spot because you know he's almost always going to end up in a 0-2 count but you're also guaranteed to have a guy on third for your 3 hitter?

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Timby
Dec 23, 2006

Your Mother!


Paul Zuvella posted:

Stats guys exist because you can use stats to have a good idea of how people may perform in the future.

No stat being predictive is true in the sense that you can in no way actually predict future performance with any certainty. Players may take huge steps forward or backward for seemingly no reason and there is no way to really do that. Stats guys can try to make some sense out of the huge amounts of noise that happen in baseball statistics and it is endlessly useful, if only to get a general idea of things.

Scouts exist because the actual mechanics of baseball (throwing a ball, swinging a bat, fielding) matter a whole lot and having people that can accurately see who does and does not have good mechanics is extremely important.

You can hit extremely well in high school if you are good at just putting the bat on the ball, but if there is a hitch in your swing you are going to be way, way way less likely to be able to catch up to the faster balls in the big leagues, for example.

PECOTA was actually remarkably predictive for a while there until Nate Silver left and Baseball Prospectus went to poo poo.

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