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Grittybeard
Mar 29, 2010


I'd imagine OBP compared to average would tell you something predictable? It seems like having a good eye doesn't really go away unless your eyesight just fails. I figure present day Barry and Ted Williams frozen head could still draw walks.

Well there's a decent chance present day Barry would be better than a league average hitter anyway, but whatever.

e: I have done absolutely no research here, so there's a chance I'm incredibly wrong.

Grittybeard fucked around with this message at Aug 10, 2017 around 01:40

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exploded mummy
Sep 10, 2008

So, so you think you can tell
Heaven from hell
Blue skies from pain
Can you tell a green field
From a cold steel rail?

- Incubus



Doctor Rope

Dr. Angela Ziegler posted:

OK so this is more a newbie discussion topic than a question, but: What stats are the best to look at to get a holistic view of a player, specificially, which stats do you think have the most predictive (signal how the player will perform in the future) value?

Is it OBP? Homers? fielding-independent ERA? what one thing could you point at on a player's baseball card and go "based on the last three years of <<this>>, player X will do great next year, barring injury or acute steve blass disease?

OPS

Elizabeth Mills
Jan 2, 2005

Weyland's Top Executive

Corporate Feed


Peanut President posted:

stats are never predictive.

then why are there scouts? and stats guys?

Peanut President
Nov 5, 2008



Dr. Angela Ziegler posted:

then why are there scouts? and stats guys?

Fundamentals and settling dumb arguments, mostly.

Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer


This and OPS+ are probably the best indicators of how good a player is offensively as a whole.

Dr. Angela Ziegler posted:

then why are there scouts? and stats guys?

Scouts are around to analyze guys who you don't have hundreds/thousands of plate appearances or innings pitched to analyze. Scouting high school/college talent the scouts know the leagues and what statistics really mean in the context of where the player is playing. It's about predicting young players without the the big meaningful stats to analyze.

Popete fucked around with this message at Aug 10, 2017 around 03:08

Inspector_666
Oct 7, 2003

benny with the good hair


No individual statline will be predictive, but you can look at career numbers and at least take an educated guess as to how a guy will do in the next season.

Of course, then you can be hilariously wrong when they go straight off a cliff like Albert Pujols and Mark Teixeira and A-Rod.

The only stuff that's "predictive" are things like ERA v FIP or xStats v actual stats. And even then you're usually just trying to kind of make an over/under bet rather than setting a real number.

Personally I think wRC+ for offense, ERA (still, really) for pitchers, and WAR for both overall are the best "shorthand" stats for how well somebody has done. For pitchers it's tougher because people define their success differently in different cases.

cis autodrag
Jan 6, 2012

that's just applause from ghosts




Gary’s Answer

OK, Rick is a man with one superpower. If he gets in base, he will always steal second and then third on the first two pitches that the batter takes. He can never be thrown out because magic.

If Rick hits at a league average clip, where do you put him in your lineup and what so you have the guy after him do when he gets in?

I'm thinking Rick should hit leadoff and the number 2 guy should just always take the first two pitches from the pitcher regardless if hittabilty, balls and stories, etc. Advancing a runner two bases off an at bat is inherently better odds than the randomness that comes in whenever you make contact.

The only edge case I can think of is if there's already two outs and we take two strikes to advance Rick a lot of the value is lost.

Paul Zuvella
Dec 7, 2011


Dr. Angela Ziegler posted:

then why are there scouts? and stats guys?

Stats guys exist because you can use stats to have a good idea of how people may perform in the future.

No stat being predictive is true in the sense that you can in no way actually predict future performance with any certainty. Players may take huge steps forward or backward for seemingly no reason and there is no way to really do that. Stats guys can try to make some sense out of the huge amounts of noise that happen in baseball statistics and it is endlessly useful, if only to get a general idea of things.

Scouts exist because the actual mechanics of baseball (throwing a ball, swinging a bat, fielding) matter a whole lot and having people that can accurately see who does and does not have good mechanics is extremely important.

You can hit extremely well in high school if you are good at just putting the bat on the ball, but if there is a hitch in your swing you are going to be way, way way less likely to be able to catch up to the faster balls in the big leagues, for example.

ALFbrot
Apr 17, 2002


cis autodrag posted:

OK, Rick is a man with one superpower. If he gets in base, he will always steal second and then third on the first two pitches that the batter takes. He can never be thrown out because magic.

If Rick hits at a league average clip, where do you put him in your lineup and what so you have the guy after him do when he gets in?

I'm thinking Rick should hit leadoff and the number 2 guy should just always take the first two pitches from the pitcher regardless if hittabilty, balls and stories, etc. Advancing a runner two bases off an at bat is inherently better odds than the randomness that comes in whenever you make contact.

The only edge case I can think of is if there's already two outs and we take two strikes to advance Rick a lot of the value is lost.

With 2 outs, I'd still take the first pitch

Inspector_666
Oct 7, 2003

benny with the good hair


cis autodrag posted:

OK, Rick is a man with one superpower. If he gets in base, he will always steal second and then third on the first two pitches that the batter takes. He can never be thrown out because magic.

If Rick hits at a league average clip, where do you put him in your lineup and what so you have the guy after him do when he gets in?

I'm thinking Rick should hit leadoff and the number 2 guy should just always take the first two pitches from the pitcher regardless if hittabilty, balls and stories, etc. Advancing a runner two bases off an at bat is inherently better odds than the randomness that comes in whenever you make contact.

The only edge case I can think of is if there's already two outs and we take two strikes to advance Rick a lot of the value is lost.

He has to bat leadoff. Then maybe you actually have a crappier hitter in the 2 spot because you know he's almost always going to end up in a 0-2 count but you're also guaranteed to have a guy on third for your 3 hitter?

Timby
Dec 23, 2006

Your Mother!


Paul Zuvella posted:

Stats guys exist because you can use stats to have a good idea of how people may perform in the future.

No stat being predictive is true in the sense that you can in no way actually predict future performance with any certainty. Players may take huge steps forward or backward for seemingly no reason and there is no way to really do that. Stats guys can try to make some sense out of the huge amounts of noise that happen in baseball statistics and it is endlessly useful, if only to get a general idea of things.

Scouts exist because the actual mechanics of baseball (throwing a ball, swinging a bat, fielding) matter a whole lot and having people that can accurately see who does and does not have good mechanics is extremely important.

You can hit extremely well in high school if you are good at just putting the bat on the ball, but if there is a hitch in your swing you are going to be way, way way less likely to be able to catch up to the faster balls in the big leagues, for example.

PECOTA was actually remarkably predictive for a while there until Nate Silver left and Baseball Prospectus went to poo poo.

Ammat The Ankh
Sep 7, 2010

If it's one thing I can't stand, it's people bunting.


I know what being Designated for Assignment is but how does it differ from being "Outrighted"?

Grittybeard
Mar 29, 2010


Ammat The Ankh posted:

I know what being Designated for Assignment is but how does it differ from being "Outrighted"?

As I understand it DFA actually puts a player in limbo for a bit, the roster spot is immediately freed up but the team has 10 days to either find a trade partner for him, put him on waivers, or assign him to the minors, or cut him if he clears waivers and they don't want him anymore. Hence the 'designated' part of that, we're going to do something with this guy but we're not telling you what yet. When you outright a player you just flat put him on non-revocable waiver. Or I guess when players with options are sent to the minors they're technically outrighted? Not sure on that last bit.

Someone can probably explain it better than I am here.

e: I guess all MLB players have to go through waivers don't they? So no one can get straight up cut if that's correct.

Grittybeard fucked around with this message at Sep 1, 2017 around 06:42

Yaws
Oct 22, 2013



I don't watch much baseball but stellar pitching seems to be the best part of this sport.

Who is the best pitcher in MLB right now?

Big Mean Jerk
Jan 27, 2009

Who?
Oh! I traded him.


Yaws posted:

I don't watch much baseball but stellar pitching seems to be the best part of this sport.

Who is the best pitcher in MLB right now?

Probably either Sale or Kluber

Good Dog
Oct 16, 2008

Who threw this cat at me?

Dinosaur Gum

I mean, its still Kershaw. As far as Cy Young voting this year, I think it'll be Scherzer in the NL and either Kluber or Sale in the AL. Klubers got the better ERA but Sale could end up with a 300 K year.

I didn't realize how little time Kershaw missed, I thought he'd be more than just 20 innings behind Scherzer. The voting will probably be close there too, especially since the Dodgers will likely win 100 games.

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


The best pitcher in baseball is Mr. Indimidation AKA The Dominator that's right I'm talking about Kyle Hendricks

Only registered members can see post attachments!

Yaws
Oct 22, 2013



So there's' no Ryan or Clemens or Martinez in the league right now?

cis autodrag
Jan 6, 2012

that's just applause from ghosts




Gary’s Answer

Yaws posted:

So there's' no Ryan or Clemens or Martinez in the league right now?

Kershaw. It's two posts above you Jesus.

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


clayton kershaw is literally one of the greatest pitchers who has ever lived

Yaws
Oct 22, 2013



cis autodrag posted:

Kershaw. It's two posts above you Jesus.

Sweet mother of gently caress does Kershaw equal the pitchers I mentioned? This is the newbie thread you dumb bitch. I don't know who is better than who.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Elizabeth Mills
Jan 2, 2005

Weyland's Top Executive

Corporate Feed


Yaws posted:

Sweet mother of gently caress does Kershaw equal the pitchers I mentioned? This is the newbie thread you dumb bitch. I don't know who is better than who.

98-01 Pedro > Kershaw > other Pedro > all other pitchers

Grittybeard
Mar 29, 2010


Dr. Angela Ziegler posted:

98-01 Pedro > Kershaw > other Pedro > all other pitchers

Maddux deserves to be somewhere in here before all other pitchers.

Probably also Doc Gooden's 1985, there's a reason it was such a shame that he ruined himself.

Peanut President
Nov 5, 2008



John Smoltz is still the best pitcher in the major leagues even though he's been retired for 5 years or however long.

iKickDogs
Aug 31, 2001



The cool thing about how John Smoltz is still the best pitcher in the major leagues even though he's been retired for 5 years or however long is that he's the best starter in the major leagues even though he's been retired for 5 years or however long, and the best reliever in the major leagues even though he's been retired for 5 years or however long.

Peanut President
Nov 5, 2008



And Closer you forgot Closer

edit: also Setup

Miz Kriss
Mar 17, 2009

It's only an avatar if the Cubs get swept.


Ok, so this was debated in the gif thread a while back, but I'm still a bit confused.

Let's say the pitcher throws the ball and it completely misses the catcher and gets behind him. What makes it a wild pitch or a missed catch?

Big Mean Jerk
Jan 27, 2009

Who?
Oh! I traded him.


I'd say Passed Ball if the pitch was on target but not caught and Wild Pitch if it was way off target and beyond where the catcher was set up

Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer

If you're asking what the rulebook criteria is there is none. It's up to the official scorer much like an error.

Timby
Dec 23, 2006

Your Mother!


Dr. Angela Ziegler posted:

98-01 Pedro > Kershaw > other Pedro > all other pitchers

Every time I think of Pedro, I'm reminded of that godawful World Series Baseball game on the Dreamcast, the one that had automatic fielding.

Infidel Castro
Jun 8, 2010

HELLO MY BABY
HELLO MY HONEY
HELLO MY PERNELL-KARL
♪ ♩ ♪ ♩ ♩





Miz Kriss posted:

Ok, so this was debated in the gif thread a while back, but I'm still a bit confused.

Let's say the pitcher throws the ball and it completely misses the catcher and gets behind him. What makes it a wild pitch or a missed catch?

It's basically a blame game. A passed ball is called when the pitch is one that a catcher shouldn't have any issue catching normally. If the pitch is so off target that it just goes past the catcher, it's almost definitely a wild pitch.

Ein cooler Typ
Nov 26, 2013

Carthago delenda est

question: how come outfielders only throw the ball into the stands when there's three outs, even if no one is on base

is it a rule, like if you throw it out of play with 1 or 2 outs the guy can stay on base? or is it just a convention. like maybe they do it so they don't accidentally forget someone's on with 1 out and throw it away

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


Ein cooler Typ posted:

question: how come outfielders only throw the ball into the stands when there's three outs, even if no one is on base

is it a rule, like if you throw it out of play with 1 or 2 outs the guy can stay on base? or is it just a convention. like maybe they do it so they don't accidentally forget someone's on with 1 out and throw it away

sometimes they do it with less than two outs and guys on base and it owns
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUtG-fXfKnI

exploded mummy
Sep 10, 2008

So, so you think you can tell
Heaven from hell
Blue skies from pain
Can you tell a green field
From a cold steel rail?

- Incubus



Doctor Rope

R.D. Mangles posted:

sometimes they do it with less than two outs and guys on base and it owns
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUtG-fXfKnI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mE54ld69x9M

Peanut President
Nov 5, 2008



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8wQ5KZmbv4

Twenty Four
Dec 21, 2008

HAIKOOLIGAN


That poor kid I hope they gave him another ball or something.

Infidel Castro
Jun 8, 2010

HELLO MY BABY
HELLO MY HONEY
HELLO MY PERNELL-KARL
♪ ♩ ♪ ♩ ♩





Twenty Four posted:

That poor kid I hope they gave him another ball or something.

Actually it would be the most Mets thing ever if they didn't.

exploded mummy
Sep 10, 2008

So, so you think you can tell
Heaven from hell
Blue skies from pain
Can you tell a green field
From a cold steel rail?

- Incubus



Doctor Rope

Infidel Castro posted:

Actually it would be the most Mets thing ever if they didn't.

Th e most Mets thing ever was buying a contract out and and replacing it with a deferred contract so they could take the money they would have spent and invested it a ponzi scheme instead.

Infidel Castro
Jun 8, 2010

HELLO MY BABY
HELLO MY HONEY
HELLO MY PERNELL-KARL
♪ ♩ ♪ ♩ ♩





exploded mummy posted:

Th e most Mets thing ever was buying a contract out and and replacing it with a deferred contract so they could take the money they would have spent and invested it a ponzi scheme instead.

Yes, but you can also reach a kid that life is nothing but a series of disappointments, especially when you're a Mets fan.

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exploded mummy
Sep 10, 2008

So, so you think you can tell
Heaven from hell
Blue skies from pain
Can you tell a green field
From a cold steel rail?

- Incubus



Doctor Rope

Infidel Castro posted:

Yes, but you can also reach a kid that life is nothing but a series of disappointments, especially when you're a Mets fan.

Daddy why is Mr Met giving us the finger

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