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Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Thufir posted:

There are also plenty of mediocre American and Canadian players in the KHL and other European leagues. Like Barry Brust and Nigel Dawes which are totally not names I just made up.

Yeah, with very few exceptions the team will be entirely these guys.

AHLers without NHL contracts are not good enough to play for a team that can raid the ranks of Canadians, or even Americans, playing in Europe.

If no NHLers go (we know a handful of Russians will, but I'm honestly very doubtful other owners will break ranks), Team Canada's European contingent will still be a medal threat.

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Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
Let's look at this year's Spengler Cup roster for a glimpse of what next year will bring!

Forwards:
Gregory Campbell (Tillsonburg, Ont./Hockey Canada)
Andrew Ebbett (Vernon, B.C./SC Bern, NLA)
Colby Genoway (Morden, Man./KHL Medvescak Zagreb, KHL)
Dustin Jeffrey (Camlachie, Ont./Lausanne HC, NLA)
David McIntyre (Pefferlaw, Ont./EV Zug, NLA)
Jacob Micflikier (Winnipeg, Man./EHC Biel-Bienne, NLA)
Marc-Antoine Pouliot (Quebec City, Que./EHC Biel-Bienne, NLA)
Mason Raymond (Cochrane, Alta./Hockey Canada)
Nick Spaling (Drayton, Ont./Genève-Servette HC, NLA).
Cory Emmerton (St. Thomas, Ont./HC Ambri-Piotta, NLA)
James Sheppard (Lower Sackville, N.S./EHC Kloten, NLA)
Chris DiDomenico (Woodbridge, Ont./SCL Tigers, NLA)

Goaltenders:
Jordon Cooke (Leduc, Alta./University of Saskatchewan, CWUAA)
Zach Fucale (Rosemère, Que./Brampton, ECHL)
Drew MacIntyre (Stratford, P.E.I./KHL Medvescak Zagreb, KHL)

Defencemen:
Daniel Vukovic (Toronto, Ont./Genève-Servette HC, NLA)
Mark Flood (Sherwood, P.E.I./EC Red Bull Salzburg, EBEL)
Chay Genoway (Morden, Man./Jokerit Helsinki, KHL)
Brandon Gormley (Murray River, P.E.I./Albany, AHL)
Shaun Heshka (Melville, Sask./Kärpät Oulu, Liiga)
Shaone Morrisonn (Vancouver, B.C./KHL Medvescak Zagreb, KHL)
Maxim Noreau (Montreal, Que./SC Bern, NLA)
Blake Parlett (Bracebridge, Ont./KHL Medvescak Zagreb, KHL); and

Other guys we could see:
Gilbert Brule (KHL), Daniel Paille (SHL), Brandon Kozun (KHL), Jonathan Cheechoo (KHL), Rob Klinkhammer (KHL)...

Who's loving pumped for some garbage hockey??

e: this team is still not too far off what Sweden, Finland, and USA could bring without NHLers soooooo

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

apophenium posted:

He's remarkably chill about having most of his teeth displaced.

Hockey player

Guys don't bother getting dental work done until they retire because what's the point. They wear flippers or dentures.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

xzzy posted:

NHLPA could force the cage issue if they wanted and the NHL wouldn't have much of a defense. "Oh yeah we totally cool with our assets worth millions getting their face smashed in and care about it so much we'll force a lockout to keep visors." Good luck defending that.

But the players just don't give a poo poo because rawr hockey players are just that tough!

Until there's some momentum nothing will change.

Guys don't wear cages in beer league. We're a very long ways away from mandating cages.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
Yeah the rec leagues around here mandate visors. But you rarely see cages. Including on the div 1 college kids playing summer hockey.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Ginette Reno posted:

So award chat. Does Burns still deserve the Norris? Karlsson has closed the gap in points and has a trillion blocked shots and plays two more minutes a game. Gets harder zone starts too. Burns has out performed him from a possession standpoint though but part of that is to be expected given Burns is deployed much more in the o-zone

It's definitely close. If Karlsson overtakes him, he's certainly got a good case. He has 54 assists on a team that has scored 182 goals (excluding his own). But Burns might score 30 goals this year, and that's a hell of a thing.

It does highlight how terrible the Doughty Norris was last year though.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

El Gallinero Gros posted:

I was hoping his numbers'd be better by now but hopefully he steps it up in the NHL.

It really hurt him to miss most of last year. Tough to adjust to being a pro and having to deal with that at the same time. I think he's still one of the top goalie prospects in the league.

At least as a goalie nobody expects him to be an impact guy right away. If he were a forward this would pretty much be his career (with Calgary) on the line at this point.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Jonny Nox posted:

I'm a close friend of the Okposo family and I don't remember how this joke goes.

he eventually dies :(

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
Ottawa will win the cup and bring in a new era of terrible garbage hockey as everyone realizes boring systems are the hot new way to win.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Ginette Reno posted:

I'll echo that. If Columbus had gotten to face any of the other East teams except maybe the Caps I think they'd have won in the first round. The format is loving dumb. Columbus should have been bashing in the brains of Ottawa or whatever.

Columbus wasn't going to beat anyone's brains in if Bob put up the save % he put up. You can't win with an .891 goalie, and I don't think his play was just because of who he faced. He let in some real sketchy goals.

e: 5 games and he broke a .900 save percentage (barely) in only one of them. I get that it's Pittsburgh but no team is going to win with goaltending like that.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
hot take: Columbus isn't actually very good and they're in for a real letdown next season when they don't get Vezina caliber goaltending from Bob.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Jonny Nox posted:

Sure right after it happens to Montreal like is predicted every single year

You mean like last year when Montreal didn't make the playoffs without Price?

I'm pretty down on PLD. He did not have the type of season you'd hope for from a #3 pick. If he's an impact player for Columbus next year it's because they're horrible.

Jordan7hm fucked around with this message at 03:37 on Apr 21, 2017

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Captain Internet posted:

Sorry this is so late. I'll try to be as clear as possible. The bounces for Columbus? They were the bad bounces. The bounces for Pittsburgh? Very much good time bounces. If the bounces are not so good maybe for Pittsburgh in the 2nd round, they are going to be losing the hockey games.

I hope this helps clear it up!

vvvvv it's all good my man, not sure how to explain a team playing really really well not being rewarded for it and a team getting out played and not getting punished for it in a way you could understand, so you just enjoy that torts hate boner.vvvvvv

Wait do you think Columbus played really well and weren't rewarded for it?

What series did you watch?

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
I mean, yeah MAF isn't as good as Price in the regular season, but he just wins. It's about time this team had a goalie who could win in the playoffs. Were in win-now mode. This move just makes sense for us.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Paulocaust posted:

I love this forum of neckbeards that never played speaking authoratively about a sport they don't understand at all. You guys are all smarter than Mike Babcock, Lou Lam and Shanahan.

I'll give you Babcock and Lou (neither of whom played past college), but playing a sport in no possible way qualifies you to build a roster or coach a team, as has been proven countless times.

And nothing prevents you from having a bias and thus a blind spot about certain players or types of players. If SAS was running a team we wouldn't have Martin, but we'd probably keep trying to force players like Akeson into roles they aren't qualified for. Different blind spots.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
Killorn's season was basically the same as last year, which is only bad because he wasn't able to do anything with the extra minute and a half per night (because he isn't a first line player). :shrug:

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
Buffalo should hire Megan.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
Just gonna mention again that there's the analytics conference in Ottawa next weekend. Megan Chayka is running a coding / intro to analytics session on the Friday afternoon, geared specifically to women but also people who are new to that stuff.

I'm probably most interested in hearing pronman. Analytics as a predictive tool is most interesting to me in terms of projecting prospects. I know he changed how he projects based on how possession at a team level generally correlates to wins, but I'm curious if or how he looks at stats in junior leagues.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Arabian Jesus posted:

Do you have a link for more info? I'd be interested in going but I don't know if my work schedule will allow it

http://www.statsportsconsulting.com/otthac17

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

glynnenstein posted:

Tanking has been a bigger problem in the league than teams being endemically bad since at least 2003. This draft system is a massive improvement on the old one.

How does this improve on it? Teams are still incentived to tank.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:

The draft itself is stupid in a league with a hard cap and hard contract limits on both rookies and individual players.

Empty quoting this forever.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

sedative posted:

We have a second Golden Knight! 2 years, $4.5 million per year.

https://twitter.com/GoldenKnights/status/860315630452350976

This is actually a really interesting move.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
Complaining about names being different from the ones you grew up with is a good sign that you are getting old.

Jamwad Hilder posted:

Getting a 40-50 point center for a second round pick would be a steal

I mean... you can sign 40-50pt guys who are all offence in the offseason for free. Hell, they're even pretty cheap (Gagner, Versteeg).

I like Spooner though and think he has some real upside so in this case you're probably right.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Kilza posted:

Darling signed a 4 year deal with the Canes.

https://twitter.com/reporterchris/status/860646367236153346

$4.15 mill AAV

This team does not have a drat clue how to fix their goaltending problems. Godddamn this set of moves is just terrible.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
Dubnyk was a first round pick who had some decent NHL success as a starter and a single terrible year. He also played out of his mind for Minnesota for 40 games before they signed him to a long term deal. He had like 3x as many NHL games in his career as Darling does.

On the other hand Darling's ES SV% is really good. I just think the combo of sending a high third round pick for a guy you're then going to overpay is a perfect example of Carolina goaltending management. I also didn't think the Talbot deal was smart though, and this is probably what Darling used as a comp.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

THE MACHO MAN posted:

hahahahah holy poo poo he smoked him
https://twitter.com/darina_vymetali/status/860609483785023488

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

pseudodragon posted:

4.15 ties for 25th in goalie salaries with the ones behind him being mainly RFA deals so the contract so it's not like they are overpaying if he's basically going to be the lowest paid starter in the league.

The issue isn't the overpaying, it's that they're committing to a guy who has been a backup for the last three years to be their starter for the next four when he's never demonstrated that he can carry the load. It's great if it works out, but it's yet another lovely goaltending decision if it doesn't, from a team that has been making lovely goaltending decisions for the last decade.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

hifi posted:

My understanding was all the GMs thought dubnyk was done before he got to arizona, so I'm not sure "only one bad year" is selling it right. And then on top of that this was at the tail end of coyotes goalies having hot years and going elsewhere to suck, so Dubnyk really wasn't the sure bet you seem to be making him out to be. Maybe chad johnson or greiss would be better comparisons, although there's a bunch of comparisons with bad goalies that probably fit as well.

That said Darling bouncing between the echl and the ahl and also being fairly old with limited nhl starts makes signing him to a 4 year deal interesting to say the least. I guess if he really does suck then it's not like he really screws with whatever playoff window the canes have in mind.

edit: and with respect to salary, it doesn't really matter how much he costs relative to other starting goalies because if he sucks then suddenly you have a 4.5MM backup goalie and your goalie tandem costs 10MM like dallas

Dubnyk played well enough for Minnesota to get a Vezina nomination and make the second all star team before Minnesota gave him that contract. The situation with Dubnyk isn't even remotely comparable.

e: hell, dude was 4th in hart voting that year. if Darling had a year like that obviously I wouldn't question this deal.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Powershift posted:

Ignoring the intangibles, Before going to Minnesota, Dubnyk was 9-5-2 and 0.916 as Arizona's backup. Last year in Chicago, Darling was 18-5-5 and 0.923 in Chicago.

Dubnyk turned from an $800k backup in Arizona to a $4.3m starter in Minnesota.

the only real difference is the mid-season trade which let the Wild try before they buy. With the teams that desperately need a goalie, It's probably not worth the risk signing Darling to a 1 year tryout, if he's hot, you'll be back to bidding on a hot goalie. If he sucks, trade him, he'll still be a step up for Colorado or Calgary.

Dubnyk turned from an $800k backup in Arizona to an $800k starter in Minnesota who proceeded to put up fantastic numbers for the next 39 games, lead them to a playoff berth, and finish third in Vezina voting.

If Darling sucks nobody is going to take that deal. Carolina is going to eat it.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
Updates from the hockey analytics conference in Ottawa: four presentations done so far. Some cool stuff about using AI to analyze videos, an interesting proposed new stat to analyze goalies from Micah Blake McCurdy (that needs work), and another kick at the shot quality vs shot quantity can.

Random stuff:

Blocks per game are not a good predictor of injury probability or severity.
Scoring chances have a higher correlation to goals during short handed situations than other situations.
The best goalie stat in terms of repeatability over 25 game chunks is still all situation save percentage. The worst is ES SV%. Both are bad though.
Arizona loving sucks at defense. (chart below)
Defenders win possession contest 59% of the time in the defensive zone and attackers shoot the puck 46% of the time when they have possession.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DerrickOnSports/status/860842193619177474

E: an offensive screen more than doubles shooting percentage (5% with no screen vs 11% with screen) drat

Jordan7hm fucked around with this message at 15:08 on May 6, 2017

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
I met the guy who Montreal fired (or didn't renew his contract or whatever) last off-season and I think he's probably really smart and I totally can see why he would get fired because I don't think he had a filter.

The big takeaway for me from that analytics conference is that the biggest barrier to fancy stats being more widely accepted is going to be the people doing the work. They're either too focused on the numbers or too academic.

If you're real smart though, Sportlogiq was using the conference as a recruiting pitch. They are hiring right now and they made that super clear.

e: here's the Sun writeup about the conference: http://www.torontosun.com//2017/05/08/what-we-learned-at-the-ottawa-hockey-analytics-conference

They recorded everything but sadly I don't see it online.

Jordan7hm fucked around with this message at 01:34 on May 9, 2017

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
Lundqvist didn't have a great series. He was incredible in games 1, 3, and 4, but otherwise not so much. On the other hand, Andy was only incredible in games 1 and 6, so.....

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

DJExile posted:

Actually yeah how has Sutter not been hired somewhere yet?

E: or do coaching hires largely wait until after the playoffs?

It's too early. Some GMs will probably fall and coaches will follow.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
If you think Girardi or Staal can't be moved you haven't been paying attention to the NHL.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
The Rags have a chance to be competitive for the next 15 years because of goaltending. Shestyorkin is looking real legit.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Nothing like your coach, who has never won anything in his life either, passive aggressively throwing you under the bus.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
That move he made behind the net last night in the 3rd to stop on a dime and cut out in front of the net was just ridiculous.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

iospace posted:

Yeah, it's not like they lost the SCF four straight times.

Yeah but that team just kept doing the same thing and then won in year 5 so it all worked out.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

bunnyofdoom posted:

Didn't Anderson slice a finger off while chopping carrots?

It was actually a knife fight.

it was cutting chicken

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Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Kalenn Istarion posted:

Why would an all-star d man go to an expansion team

$

e: also Vegas

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